Today's Global Economy Pulse

Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Lamborghinis Stranded in Sri Lanka as War Disrupts Asia's Used-Car Trade
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have choked the Strait of Hormuz, causing severe port congestion that left more than 500 Japanese‑exported cars idle at sea before finally off‑loading in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port ten days late. Japanese firm Kobe Motor, which ships about 18,000 used vehicles annually, now has 50 luxury cars stranded in Sri Lanka and China, while South Korean exporters face similar delays and storage costs of roughly $31,000 per month. Freight rates have spiked and some shippers are demanding $5,000 deposits per vehicle, forcing dealers to consider costly air freight or alternative routes. The disruption threatens the $19 billion combined used‑car export market of Japan and South Korea, especially in the Middle East where demand peaks each spring.
US Navy's Proximity Stalls Commercial Traffic in Hormuz
And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a...
SPR Release Trivial, Hormuz Shock Permanently Alters Oil Market
SPR releases are a rounding error against a 10–17 mb/d disruption, says @ericnuttall Paper oil is still pretending everything’s fine. Even if this ends tomorrow, you’re left with a $10+ security premium Damaged infrastructure takes years, not weeks to recover This is a...

Gift Nifty Signals Strong Start as Trump’s Iran Talks Boost Global Sentiment
Indian markets kicked off strong on Wednesday as the Gift Nifty rose to 23,170, roughly 100 points higher at the open. The rally was spurred by President Donald Trump’s remarks suggesting imminent US‑Iran negotiations, which buoyed global risk appetite. Crude...
Australia Politics Live: Treasurer Jim Chalmers Responds to Latest Inflation Figures
Treasurer Jim Chalmers addressed Australia’s latest inflation data, noting that headline CPI eased to a 3.7% annual rate in February while underlying inflation slipped to 3.3%. The figures suggest price pressures are moderating after a brief pause before the Iran‑Israel...
Goldman Sachs Lifts US Recession Odds to 30% as Oil Shock Fuels Risk
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
Trump’s 15 Point Plan to Catastrophe
A report claims former President Donald Trump sent Iran a 15‑point peace proposal, though the full text remains undisclosed. The outlined items call for decommissioning key nuclear facilities, regulating enriched uranium stockpiles, ending Iran’s ballistic missile program, and halting support...
Eurozone Private‑Sector Output Slides to 10‑Month Low, Input Costs Surge
Eurozone private‑sector activity slipped to a ten‑month low in March, with the flash composite output index dropping to 50.5, below expectations. At the same time, input‑cost inflation accelerated to its strongest level in over three years, underscoring weakening domestic demand...
Africa’s 4.3% Growth Forecast Stumbles Over Power‑Infrastructure Gap
Fresh projections put Africa’s economy on a 4.3% expansion path in 2026, with East Africa hitting 5.8%, outpacing most developed markets. The surge is being throttled by chronic power‑infrastructure deficits that cost the continent billions each year.
Boao Forum Projects 4.5% Growth for Asia in 2026, Cementing Its Role as Global Engine
The Boao Forum for Asia released a report projecting a 4.5% expansion of the Asian economy in 2026, keeping the continent as the world’s primary growth engine. The outlook, unveiled at the annual Hainan summit, is expected to steer investment...
Slovenia Enacts EU’s First Fuel Rationing Amid Hormuz Blockade
Slovenia became the first EU member to impose fuel purchase limits after the Strait of Hormuz blockage triggered long lines and shortages. Private motorists can buy up to 50 liters a day, while companies are capped at 200 liters, with the army...
CERAWeek CEOs Warn of Oil Market Volatility as Iran-Israel War Keeps Hormuz Closed
At CERAWeek in Houston, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne and NNPC GCEO Bashir Ojulari warned that the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are creating unprecedented volatility for oil and gas markets. Their...
U.S. Treasury Two‑Year Note Auction Draws $69 Bn with Weak 2.44 Bid‑to‑Cover Ratio
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 bn of two‑year notes on March 24, posting a high yield of 3.936% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.44, well under the ten‑auction average of 2.62. The soft demand underscores growing investor caution amid rising yields...
Blast Hits Texas Oil Refinery Amid Shifting Global Commodity Markets
A blast was reported at a Texas oil refinery, though details remain scarce. The incident comes as crude oil prices slipped on easing US‑Iran tensions, while India's coal consultancy CMPDI struggled to attract investors and turmeric prices fell sharply amid...
Australia’s Energy Vulnerability Is 20 Years in the Making
Australia’s strategic fuel reserves have dwindled to roughly 30 days of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel, far short of the International Energy Agency’s 90‑day benchmark. About 90 % of the nation’s refined fuels are now imported, exposing the country to supply...
Bank of Ghana Cuts Policy Rate to 14% as Cedi Slides, Defends Dual‑track Approach
The Bank of Ghana reduced its policy rate from 15.5% to 14% and said the move is part of a dual‑track monetary framework that balances cheaper credit with aggressive liquidity absorption. The central bank absorbed about GH₵17 bn in excess liquidity...
India's Private Sector PMI Slips to 3‑Year Low Amid Middle East War
HSBC's flash PMI shows India's private sector output index fell to 56.5 in March, the lowest level since October 2022. The slowdown is tied to the Middle East war, rising input costs and weaker domestic demand, raising concerns for investors...
GDP‑B: A Fresh Lens on Economic Well‑Being
Kevin Fox provides a terrific summary of GDP-B, a new way of measuring economic well-being
White House Wins Jawboning, yet Oil Prices Defy Expectations
The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after...

Morning Brief Podcast: Markets May Be Misreading This War: UBS’ Chief Strategist
UBS chief strategist Bhanu Baweja warns that the escalating Middle East conflict could generate an oil supply shock far larger than the Russia‑Ukraine war, a risk markets are currently under‑estimating. He argues investors are applying a short‑shock mindset, overlooking the...

From Shock to Opportunity: What Wars Really Do to Stocks, Gold, Commodities and Crypto
War-driven market volatility creates both risk and opportunity. The Russia‑Ukraine conflict shaved roughly 1 % of global GDP—about $1.5 trillion—and sparked energy price spikes, while current Middle‑East tensions are pushing oil higher and inflating commodity prices. Historical data show equities rebound, delivering...
What Now for the Australian Dollar?
The Australian dollar remains pinned around US$0.70 as the US Dollar Index eases amid peace‑rumor optimism. Safe‑haven demand for the Japanese yen is pressuring regional currencies, leaving the AUD in a narrow range. Commodity markets are volatile: gold prices have...

Tariffs Boost Prices Now, Promise Uncertain Future Benefits
Tariffs raise prices now and gamble on benefits later—if they come at all. Meanwhile, retaliation and supply chain shifts hurt U.S. businesses. That’s not a clear “benefit.” And corporations don’t price based on taxes alone—they price based on what they...

Record February Home Purchase Cancellations Hit 13.7%
42k US home purchases were canceled in February which equates to 13.7% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage for any February on record. https://t.co/QuxiWyB3TE
For the Sake of the Budget and Productivity, Shrink the Public Service
Former NSW Senior Trade and Investment Commissioner Mike Newman argued on John Anderson’s podcast that Australia’s public‑service workforce is oversized relative to other advanced economies. He cited figures showing roughly 2.6 million bureaucrats costing about $250 billion Australian dollars (≈ $165 billion USD) each...
Relief Fails in Panic: Trump, IEA Miss Oil Reality
What Trump and the IEA Missed About the Oil Market: Relief Does Not Work When Markets Are in Panic Mode Daily Energy Report https://t.co/9c26JYBjru

Irreconcilable Demands Make Iran‑US Deal Impossible
Both sides want a deal Washington wants Iran to give up the things that define it Iran wants relief without giving up those things NO DEAL IS POSSIBLE on these terms. #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Diplomacy #MiddleEast #War #Strategy #Oil #IRGC https://t.co/cfX0dD9IzF
Australia’s Economy Was Deteriorating Before the War
Australia’s economy entered a downturn before the Middle East conflict erupted, with household spending contracting in February for the first time in years. The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Indicator flagged the decline, breaking a long‑standing growth pattern. While the war...

2‑Year Treasury Yield Jumps To
The March 2026 US Treasury 2-year yield hit 3.93%, up sharply from 3.45% last month. This is the highest yield since May 2025. TRUMP’S TARIFF WAR AND WAR ON IRAN ARE RATTLING BOND MARKETS. https://t.co/TfJWZRALwu
Amid Iran War Hype, Hidden Trade Opportunity Emerges
Markets are jumping from one Iran war headline to the next, but look through the noise and this trade seems to be hiding in plain sight. #IranWar #Macro #Dollar #Trading #Markets https://t.co/iAgNNxmpff

Oil Executives, Investors Meet in Venezuela as Sanctions Easing Revives Upstream Interest
Dozens of hedge‑fund and oil‑company executives gathered in Caracas this week, marking one of the largest investor delegations to Venezuela in years. The meetings, organized by U.S. consultant Signum Global Advisors, follow a U.S. policy shift that is easing sanctions...
Europe Braces for Iran War Fuel Shortages
Europe will soon face the same kind of fuel supply disruptions as Asia due to the war in Iran, says Shell’s CEO 🇪🇺 ⚠️ “If you look through the slate, jet fuel is already being impacted. Diesel will be next...

US Q4 Productivity Slumps, AI Hype Stalls
This morning, the US BLS released nonfarm productivity data for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 growth was revised down to 1.8%, from 2.8%, and well below the 5.2% surge in Q3. FULL-YEAR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED TO 2.1% IN 2025, DOWN FROM 3.0% IN...

Crude Prices Fluctuate as Reports of US-Iran Talks Swirl
Oil prices jumped higher on Tuesday before slipping in after‑hours trading, reflecting the market’s reaction to fresh reports of potential US‑Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The price swing underscores how quickly crude markets respond to geopolitical...
Iran War Unravels Integrated Global Energy System
Global Energy Shocks Explained by Top Economist Prof Severin Borenstein, UCBerkeley, about how a deeply integrated global energy system is being disrupted by the Iran war. #IranWar https://youtu.be/nB4mn1FG644
Global Unity Needed: Conflict Ends, Markets Rebound
You know what I would tell people on the street? To keep calm and remain optimistic. You have to keep in mind that EVERY NATION has stake in the game, whether it’s the Middle East, the US, China, Japan, it...

Gary Liu and Liu Xiaochun on What Role Stablecoins Could Play in China and the US
Gary Liu and Liu Xiaochun argue that stablecoins will become the backbone of cross‑border payments and remittances, eliminating high fees and slow settlement. They foresee AI agents executing billions of decisions daily, using stablecoins for instant settlement. The U.S. Genius...
Chaos in Middle East Markets Creates Trading Edge
The Middle East is on a KNIFE'S EDGE 🔪 Ceasefire talks. Marines steaming toward Hormuz. Saudis sharpening their knives. Oil dumping on every headline 🛢️💥 Markets are an absolute WARZONE right now But here's the cold hard truth... CHAOS = EDGE for those who...
Iran Is Testing a Selective Strait of Hormuz Strategy that Could Deliver Another Shock to Oil Markets
Iran is testing a selective passage strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only certain vessels to transit the waterway. Analysts describe the approach as a calibrated tactic that balances political leverage with economic self‑preservation. By targeting specific ships, Tehran...

Execs Warn of Oil Demand Destruction From Supply Crunch
Oil executives warn that the ongoing war in Iran is severely disrupting crude and refined product flows, creating a global supply crunch. The resulting shortages are driving price spikes that are eroding demand across industrial and consumer sectors. Analysts anticipate...

Inflation, ECB Hikes, and Gold Dip Buying Explored
This morning on @asharqbusiness discussing inflation, ECB rate hikes, buying the dip on gold and other macroeconomic data. 📊
Trump's Iran Strategy: Seize Oil Infrastructure, Risk Escalation
trump wants a win in iran. one option? take the oil infrastructure and hold it. that would be a massive escalation. @gzeromedia
Markets Surge as Israel Fears Trump’s Quick Iran Deal
After hours risk markets are "popping" higher on this story. No word on if this includes opening the Strait of Hormuz (or they agree to keep it closed and stop shooting.) Channel 12s source is the Israeli Government, suggesting they are...
Russia Earmarks Oil Windfall for Welfare Fund, Cuts Spending Reliance
Consider the source, etc, but the official line from Russian govt is that O&G revenue windfall will go straight into rebuilding the (depleted) national welfare fund. And longer-term plan is to reduce role of O&G revenues in day-to-day spending. https://t.co/5QfNPsBYtV
Everyone Navigates Iran War Oil Market Differently
No judgment. We’re all dealing with the Iran War oil market in our own way.

War Triggers Swing From Expected Cuts to Near‑zero Hikes
The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz

Iran Prefers JD Vance over Witkoff, Kushner for Talks
The Telegraph reports Iran does not want to negotiate with Witkoff and Kushner, they prefer JD Vance. https://t.co/EM6pghSciP

Crisis Unites Yield and Oil: Correlations Converge
Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q

U.S. Pushes Month-Long Ceasefire for 15-Point Deal
The Times of Israel reports US administration working on a monthlong ceasefire period to negotiate a 15-point agreement. https://t.co/E2EyihE4Gt

Aluminum Prices Surge 12‑40% Amid US‑Israel Conflict
As a result of the US-Israeli war in Iran, ALUMINUM prices are UP 12-40% THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. The world’s biggest carmakers are reportedly “panic buying.” CARMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/yRInvBpEdm