Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
America’s War, America’s Recession
The United States’ decision to go to war in Iran is poised to unleash a sharp energy and food‑price shock, compounding existing inflationary pressures. Disruptions to Middle‑East oil flows could lift gasoline and heating costs, while import‑tariff policies already stoke price growth. Simultaneously, the U.S. credit market is strained, equity valuations are stretched, and public finances remain unsustainable, leaving the economy vulnerable to higher interest rates. Together, these dynamics raise the risk of a deeper recession than previously anticipated.
Iran's Toll Booth Threat Could Shut Global Trade
Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Iran’s “Toll Booth” Plan Threatens Global Trade This is a big one, folks. Prof Rob Huebert, @UCalgary, discusses international maritime law and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://youtu.be/nPQMTWEySvE
The Philippines Declares State of Emergency over Fuel Crisis
The episode reports that the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency as diesel and petrol prices more than double amid the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, prompting an executive order that lets the government control fuel distribution, purchase supplies, and subsidise costs....
How Exchange Rate Movements Impact Businesses Importing From China
UK importers buying from China face cost volatility because most Chinese suppliers invoice in US dollars, forcing businesses to manage both GBP/USD and USD/CNY pairs. A 5‑10% swing in the pound can instantly raise cost of goods sold, while freight...
Iran War Drives Up Gas, Food, Housing Costs
The war in Iran may seem like 7,000 miles away, but it’s arrived here- showing up at the pump, in your grocery bill, and in a housing market that’s only getting harder to afford. More in my newsletter, ‘This War...
BYD Plans 20 Canadian Dealerships Within a Year as 6.1% Tariff Deal Opens the Floodgates
Chinese EV giant BYD announced plans to launch 20 branded dealerships across Canada within its first year, following Ottawa’s reduction of the tariff on Chinese‑built electric cars from 100% to 6.1%. The new trade deal caps imports at 49,000 vehicles...
National Bank of Hungary Review: No Need to Panic, Unless…
The National Bank of Hungary kept its key policy rate at 6.25% on 24 March, reflecting a hawkish stance amid Middle‑East tensions and an energy‑price shock. Inflation fell to a ten‑year low, but the bank expects it to stabilize around 4%...
Jeffrey Gundlach: The Case for Rate Cuts Is Falling Apart | CNBC
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, told CNBC that the market’s expectation of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts is eroding as inflation remains sticky and the two‑year Treasury yield sits above the policy rate. He highlighted a widening gap between calm...
Farage's Fossil Fuel Donors Profit From Iran War
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has created a sharp "war premium" that is boosting fossil‑fuel equities. Jeremy Hosking’s hedge fund, which manages roughly $3 billion, saw its oil, gas and coal holdings rise by more than $25 million since the war began. Hosking has...
India, China, and How Not to Save the Brahmaputra
China is rapidly expanding its upstream hydraulic infrastructure on the Yarlung Tsangpo, highlighted by the 60 GW Great Bend project, while withholding hydrological data from India. New Delhi has responded not with multilateral diplomacy but with a “dam‑for‑dam” strategy, exemplified by the 20,000 MW...
UK Inflation Live: Did Inflation Rise in February?
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, showing a seemingly calm headline figure. However, consumer‑finance expert Tamsin Powell warned that rising fuel and wholesale energy costs could soon reignite price pressures. The...
Trump's Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Higher Longer
Trump’s war in Iran is putting extreme pressure on global oil supplies, driving up crude prices that now may stay higher for longer. My @morningjoe Chart
When Did Lying Stop Mattering?
President Donald Trump used Truth Social to declare an end to the Iran war, prompting stock futures to rebound and oil prices to tumble before Iran’s foreign ministry denied any cease‑fire. Simultaneously, the administration sent ICE agents to thirteen airports,...
Rising Mortgage Rates Threaten Struggling Canadian Housing Market
If Mortgage Rates Keep Rising What Happens To The Canadian Housing Market? We have seen some Fixed Mortgage Rates rise nearly 20% since the Middle East War began: depends on which Bank & length of term Important: the War could end Friday...
S&P Nears Selling Climax Amid Deep Valuation Drop
In the table below, we see that the drawdown in the S&P 500 has now reached 7.6%, with breadth reaching moderately oversold levels. That drawdown masks a far bigger decline in valuations, with the trailing P/E down 20%. The MSCI EAFE and...
February 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
Core CPI excluding shelter has hovered near a 2% annual rate for almost four years, while rent inflation is finally showing signs of moderation. The article argues that continued new home construction is essential to keep rent growth in check....
Danske Pauses Tactical Risk-Taking as All Eyes Turn to Oil and War
Danske Bank Asset Management has placed its Global Tactical Allocation strategy on hold, moving to a neutral stance across all tactical risk exposures due to heightened uncertainty from the Middle East war. Head of Macro and TAA Bo Bejstrup Christensen...
US Institutional Decay Is Threatening Global Finance
The United States has long been the cornerstone of global finance, thanks to the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Trade Commission. Recent trends suggest that this institutional independence is eroding, with...
US Launches $1T Pax Silica Fund to Secure Supply Chains
The New "Pax Silica" Fund The Trump Administration is establishing a Supply Chain Fund. The "Pax Silica" fund will support energy, semiconductor, and critical materials. The US will commit $250M, and partners will include Singapore, the UAE, Qatar, and Sweden. The...
Short ZAR/USD as Strong Dollar Presses South African Rand
Macro: ZAR down 1.7% as a firm USD pressures EM FX. Key: stronger dollar despite improved SA leading indicator. Risk: Iran headlines could spike oil and force risk-off. Trade: short ZAR/USD on USD momentum 📉 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More...
China Rejects 3 Indian Rice Shipments, Alleging Presence of GMOs
China has turned away three shipments of Indian non‑basmati rice, alleging the presence of genetically modified organisms despite prior certification by a Chinese inspection agency. Indian exporters, led by Shriram Food Industry, are pressing the Indian Council of Agricultural Research...
Explaining This Week’s Mortgage, Oil, and Bond Turmoil
@housingwire @sarahteresa6 We try to explain the madness if this week with #mortgagerates #oil and #bonds with this conflict. #economics #chartdaddy
Oil Prices Surge to $98 a Barrel as US Delays Iran Strikes, Stoking Inflation Fears
Benchmark Brent crude rose over 2% to $98.25 a barrel and WTI jumped 3.4% to $91.09 after President Donald Trump delayed planned strikes on Iran. The rally revives concerns that higher energy costs could lift U.S. inflation and pressure the...
Trump’s Strait Ultimatum Sparks 10% Oil Slide, Boosts Defense Stocks
President Donald Trump posted a 48‑hour ultimatum on Truth Social demanding the Strait of Hormuz be reopened, prompting oil prices above $100 a barrel to tumble 10% and defense stocks to rally. The move has intensified market volatility as investors...
Meet Qivalis: The Bank-Led Effort to Internationalise the Euro with Stablecoins
European banks have formed a consortium called Qivalis to issue a euro‑denominated stablecoin, marking the first large‑scale, bank‑led effort to internationalise the euro in digital form. The project receives backing from the European Central Bank’s regulatory sandbox, signaling official support...
The Market Brief
President Trump announced a pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, sending oil prices sharply lower and triggering a rapid reversal across global risk assets. The market remains jittery as equities fluctuate and oil attempts to recover amid ongoing Middle...
Why US and UK Monetary Policy Responses to the Iran War Differ
The article examines why the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have taken divergent monetary‑policy paths in response to the Iran‑Israel conflict. While the Fed has kept policy tight, emphasizing inflation control and using liquidity facilities to cushion market...
Can Central Asia Become a New Hub in the Global Fertilizer Market?
Central Asian states are mobilising substantial resources to become a new fertilizer hub, with Kazakhstan targeting 6 million tonnes of potash by 2028, Uzbekistan scaling green ammonia, and Turkmenistan expanding phosphate output. The region’s existing gas‑chemical complexes, such as KazAzot and...
India Launches Six Textile Export Support Centres
India announced the establishment of six Textile Export Facilitation Centres across key production clusters, including Surat, Karur, Ichalkaranji, Jaipur, Varanasi and Ludhiana. The initiative is part of a broader strategy to lift the country's textile exports to $100 billion by 2030....
Australia and EU Agree Sweeping Trade Deal in Face of Global Uncertainty
Australia and the European Union have signed a sweeping free‑trade agreement valued at about A$10 bn ($7 bn), ending eight years of negotiations. The pact eliminates almost all tariffs on Australian agricultural products and expands cooperation on defence, critical minerals, and space....
Fuel Price Surge Echoes 2008, 2022, Threatens Equities
Gasoline, Diesel Price Surges May Mirror 2008, 2022 - US average gasoline and diesel prices have approached the $4 and $5 a gallon thresholds, raising the prospect of greater consumer and economic stress -- and peaks akin to 2008 and...
Iran Blocks Strait, Traps 25 Million Barrels of Iraqi Oil
About 25 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude are trapped on tankers in the Gulf. Iran claims control of the passage — so why is it blocking Iraq’s oil? Does Iran want the Iraqi government to go bancrupt? العراق: نحو...
BOE Chief Warns Against Delaying Action on UK Inflation
BOE Chief Economist Pill warns against delay in tackling the UK price surge https://t.co/n95GeLSJkw via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/tsXgjiGiAe
Rising Gas Prices Hurt 55% of Americans, Undermining Trump
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Americans report that rising gas prices have negatively impacted their finances. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/kJMYHDcmB6
German Growth Drag Stems From Both Imports and Exports
Is the big drag from net exports on German growth from imports or from exports? It is of course from both. This is the data for nominal trade with China for the full euro area (no...
Oil Expert Claims Hormuz Strait Unnecessary, Misreads Market
Guy who clearly understands how oil markets work: "see, we never needed the Strait of Hormuz 😏"
Polymarket Predicts 55% Chance of US Invading Iran
According to @Polymarket, there is a 55% chance US forces enter Iran by the end of April. Forget Trump’s talk of the art of the deal. He takes his orders from Jerusalem. https://t.co/GgrtwQc8kz
Sulphur Prices Surge 40% Amid Existing Deficit
Sulphur prices now up 40% since before the Iran War Unlike oil, the sulphur market was already in severe deficit https://t.co/gMiE3tcho5
Closing the Strait Threatens Demand, Requires Immediate Action
This is how you begin to destroy demand. Much more will be necessary if the Strait doesn't reopen soon.
DXY‑Oil Pair Hides Slow Margin Tax
$DXY firm + oil firm is the combo nobody wants to model. It’s a slow tax on margins that shows up AFTER the ‘soft landing’ victory lap. https://t.co/ocSH3ICv0N
Exports Decline Since 2022 Breaks Trade Symmetry
Exports have been falling since 2022. In normal times, one would expect symmetric growth in exports and imports, (offsetting contributions). The recent decline in exports is thus unusual https://t.co/KYVDyKfsJI
Supply Pressure Keeps Rates Elevated Amid Fed Pause
UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rate cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase...
Finnish Unemployment Rises Amid Persistent Economic Slump
Finnish jobless rate continues to climb as the economy stays subdued https://t.co/kdTQxPFb9w via @KirsiHeikel https://t.co/R0C84aG7pw
EU Delays Announcement of Russian Oil Phase‑out Timeline
BRUSSELS, March 24 (Reuters) - The European Union does not have a new date to communicate regarding its plan to fully phase out Russian oil, previously scheduled for April 15, Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said on Tuesday.
Hormuz Closure Threatens 15 Million‑
Is the Strait of Hormuz still closed and will the global oil industry drain down ~15 million barrels of petroleum stocks outside the Middle East today alone because of it? https://t.co/YQqTHgKaN9
Dollar’s Global Dominance Fuels US Deficit Persistence
Joseph Gagnon: "The most persistent driver of US deficits is the attractiveness of US financial assets to foreign investors owing to the central role of the dollar in international transactions and to the perceived safety and creativity of US financial...
Market Rally Fueled by Hype, Iran Risk Remains Unpriced
Fake News Saved The Market My morning rant Monday. Strong opinions held strongly.🙃 The short-covering bounce driven by headlines & algos, not fundamentals, doesn't change the fact: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN. $SPX $6666 –6718 as $DXY falls won't save us as yields...
Volatility Controllers Push Rates Down, New Acronyms Loom
This chart really says it all from Torsten Slock. The volatility controllers will do anything in their power to get these rates down or things could really snowball in the wrong direction. Can't wait to see what acronyms come out of the...
Rates Aren’t High—History Shows They’ve Just Risen
and when you find yourself thinking that rates/yields are high, just remember, they're not... they rose for 40 years... they fell for 38 years... they bottomed (big time), almost 6 years ago... https://t.co/6tRJ9pYxtQ
Middle East Conflict Will Drive Long-Term Energy Price Surge
Why the war in the Middle East will have long term impacts on energy prices and our energy security. I talked to TRT World last night. https://t.co/Tia1QYZDBJ