Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
European Businesses Now Struggling to Expand Operations, Reach Potential : Analysis
The IMF warns that Europe’s productivity gap with the United States is widening as firms struggle to scale. Young European companies are valued at just $5 trillion compared with $42.9 trillion for their U.S. peers, and the average EU firm employs only ten people versus seventy in the U.S. This disparity translates into roughly 20% lower labor productivity across the continent. The IMF proposes deeper integration of capital, labor, and consumer markets to unlock growth and restore Europe’s competitive edge.
Kafafy for Foreign Policy: Empty Words Don’t Open Straits
The Atlantic Council piece critiques recent U.S. rhetoric, especially former President Trump’s aggressive language toward Iran, for offering no tangible solutions to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. While Tehran threatens to disrupt the roughly $100 billion daily oil flow, Washington’s...
'Every War Has Collateral Impact, There Are Difficulties': Union Minister Piyush Goyal
Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal warned that the ongoing global war, while not involving India directly, creates collateral trade difficulties for the country. He highlighted India’s aggressive trade‑diplomacy, noting free‑trade agreements with 38 developed nations that grant preferential...
U.S. Buyer’s‑Market Pressured by Surplus Inventory and Rising Home‑Improvement Costs
Analysts say the U.S. housing market has turned into a buyer’s‑market, with inventory outpacing demand and home‑buying costs climbing. A 3.2% construction inflation forecast in Ireland and record‑high participation in Lowe’s spring promotions highlight broader cost pressures on buyers.
Bearish Technical Signal Amid Middle East Turmoil Prompts Trader Caution
A technical indicator flagged a bearish pattern across U.S. equity futures, prompting short‑term traders to reassess risk. The signal arrived as Brent crude hovered above $100, gold slipped 15% month‑over‑month, and geopolitical tension in the Middle East intensified. Analysts warn...
BOE's Greene: I Am More Worried About Higher Inflation than Slower Demand From War
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene said she is "not close" to voting for a rate hike at the April 30 meeting, despite being the committee's most hawkish voice. She highlighted a sharp rise in one‑year inflation...
Dollar Climbs as Iran War Uncertainty Stalls Euro and Pound
The dollar index jumped 0.2% to 99.42 on Thursday, while the euro slipped to $1.1584 and the pound fell to $1.3383 as investors retreated from fleeting optimism over a U.S.–Iran de‑escalation. The move follows a failed peace‑talks narrative, a U.S....
India's Growth Outlook Trimmed as Oil Prices Surge and Geopolitical Risks Mount
Analysts including S&P Global, Goldman Sachs and the RBI have lowered India's GDP growth outlook, citing soaring oil import bills, geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening rupee. The downgrade reflects widening pressures on the private sector, from corporate tax reforms to...
Foreign Outflows Reach $50.45B in Asian Stocks Amid Iran‑Israel War
Foreign investors have sold a net $50.45 billion of Asian equities in March, marking the largest monthly outflow since at least 2008. The sell‑off is tied to renewed Iran‑Israel hostilities, soaring oil prices and heightened risk‑off sentiment across emerging‑market Asia.
RI Urged to Honor Contracts, Keep Doors Open in Mineral Tug-of-War
Indonesia stands at a crossroads as the United States and European allies push to onshore critical‑mineral supply chains, challenging China’s dominance in the archipelago’s mining sector. The recently signed US‑Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) could deepen Western ties, but...
China Says Mexico’s Tariff Hikes Constitute ‘Trade Barriers’ After Probe
China’s Ministry of Commerce declared Mexico’s recent tariff hikes on over 1,400 products – ranging from 5% to 50% – a breach of trade rules, affecting more than $30 billion in Chinese exports. The measures, which also include stricter customs procedures...
The West Has Long Characterized Iran’s Oil As A Prize To Be Claimed
The article traces how Western powers have long portrayed Iran’s oil as a coveted prize, beginning with the 1908 discovery that birthed the Anglo‑Persian Oil Company, later BP. It shows how BP’s interwar advertising turned Iran into an exotic backdrop...
How a Discretionary PM Has Managed Resurgent Global Markets
Francis Sabourin, senior investment advisor at Richardson Wealth, continues to keep U.S. equities at the heart of his portfolio while expanding exposure to developed and emerging markets that have outperformed North America in 2024‑2025. His strategy prioritizes business fundamentals over...
US Stockpiles Keep $5 Corn From Surpassing 2022 Peak
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66 apex...
Australian Forwarders Seek Aid as Surcharges and ‘Dumped’ Boxes Drive Costs Up
Australian freight forwarders, backed by APSA and the Freight & Trade Alliance, are seeking government assistance to offset soaring shipping costs caused by the US/Israeli war against Iran. Conflict‑related surcharges and end‑of‑voyage fees are adding up to about $4,000 per...
US February Import Price Index +1.3% vs +0.5% Expected
The U.S. import price index jumped 1.3% month‑over‑month in February, the strongest gain since March 2022, driven by a 3.8% rise in fuel imports and a 1.1% increase in non‑fuel goods. Capital goods such as computers and industrial machinery posted...
US Stock Futures Give up some Gains as Iran Says Ceasefire Negotiations Lack Legitimacy
U.S. equity futures slipped from 6,678 to 6,660 after an Iranian semi‑official outlet reported Tehran’s rejection of any ceasefire or negotiations with the United States. The report, released at 7:50 a.m. ET, highlighted Iran’s view that talks lack legitimacy and that...
Geopolitics Sidelining Climate Goals, Says BHP’s Slattery
BHP’s Australian operations chief Geraldine Slattery warned that recent geopolitical upheavals are pushing energy security ahead of climate objectives, reshaping policy priorities in major economies. She cited Middle East conflicts and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz as catalysts for...
Inflation Could Rise to 3.2% for Year, ESRI Warns
Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has revised its 2026 inflation outlook to 3.2% from 2.1%, citing rising energy costs linked to the Iran crisis. The think‑tank warns that prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil...
Oil Falls, Asian Markets Rally as News of US Peace Plan Emerges
The United States delivered a 15‑point peace proposal to Iran via Pakistan, prompting Tehran to announce safe passage for non‑hostile tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil benchmarks reacted sharply, with Brent sliding to $98 a barrel and WTI to...
The Rise and Fall of China’s Overseas Lending
China’s state‑owned policy banks extended roughly $1 trillion in sovereign loans to developing nations over the past two decades, primarily financing large infrastructure projects. The loans were market‑rate, short‑term, and often secured by commodity‑export revenues, creating a massive exposure for borrower...
Iran War Sends Shockwaves Through Global Markets, Then a Relief Rally, What’s Coming Next?
The outbreak of war in Iran sent shockwaves through global markets, pushing South Korea's KOSPI to its worst session since 2008 and slashing Japan's Nikkei 225 by 10%. Oil prices spiked to briefly clear $115 per barrel before easing. Early...
Global Consumer Confidence Dips for First Time in Nearly a Year
Global consumer confidence slipped for the first time in nearly a year, with the Ipsos index dropping 0.6 points to 49.4 in March. The decline was driven mainly by weaker current financial assessments and investment intentions, while expectations about jobs...
Iran War Triggers Plastic Price Surge, Economic Shock
Price on PLASTICS just DOUBLED‼️ downstream financial repercussions of the Iran war. This is what a supply shock looks like in the real economy.
Analysts Await Hormuz Reopening Amid Iran War Headlines
Every oil analyst reading the Iran War's done headlines and watching the Iran War's done price action waiting for the Strait of Hormuz to actually begin flowing again https://t.co/4kBqUoI2Np
30% of Nigerians Earn Below ₦100,000; Majority Unsure Income Covers Monthly Costs — PiggyVest Report
A PiggyVest survey shows 30% of Nigerians earned less than ₦100,000 (about $217) per month in 2025, the largest income segment, while 28% reported no income, up from 20% in 2023. Although the share earning over ₦1 million ($2,174) rose to...
TACO Boosts Trump, War Uncertainty Keeps Oil Low
"Rather than being a sign of weakness, TACO is working in Trump’s favor. No one knows for certain when or if he’ll try to end the war, which has been enough to stop traders from pushing up the oil price."...
Markets Rally Amid Iran Conflict Uncertainty
🚨 Markets are surging - but Iran says truce, talks NOT viable in current conditions Missiles are still flying Oil is driving EVERYTHING ⚠️Is this a real move or a trap? Here's what I'm watching before I touch anything $SPY $GLD $USO $DXY $EURUSD...
Uganda Economy Expanded 8.5pc in Quarter Ended December
Uganda’s economy expanded 8.5% in the quarter ended December, up from 5.4% a year earlier, driven by strong consumer demand and a construction surge. The $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline is now 80% complete, positioning the country for oil...
US Import Prices Surge to Four‑Year High
"US Import Prices Jump by Most in Nearly Four Years Ahead of Iran War" "Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer merchandise excluding automobiles." https://t.co/0glmjMPmLR
Gold Soars, Bonds Crash: Safe‑Haven Playbook Overhauled
Gold $4,550+. Missiles flying. Bonds selling off. The safe haven playbook just got rewritten. $GLD $GC_F $TLT https://t.co/mnn27BiQUs
Is the Oil Crisis About to Break Global Supply Chains?
In this episode, Ed Elson and Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson discuss the cascading effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure and Red Sea disruptions on global supply chains, highlighting soaring oil, diesel, and fertilizer prices and a 50% rise in...
Oman Oil Plunges From $170 to $90s, Market Wraps
Lots of headline whipsaw but call me crazy but I do find market price action useful. Oman oil back down to the 90’s from the 170 highs says this is a wrap https://t.co/0WwZo0Hanz
Trump’s Tweets Sway Sentiment, Not Oil Reality
Trump's tweets can move sentiment, writes @JavierBlas They can’t move reality Two weeks to fix flows—or the market stops listening https://t.co/JOkeWKOjXl #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #Inflation #Geopolitics
Is the Iran Crisis a Game-Changer for Russian Gas?
The article examines how the escalating Iran crisis could reshape Russia’s gas exports to Europe, a market where Russia still accounts for roughly 40% of supply. It argues that the EU’s recent pivot toward liquefied natural gas (LNG) has swapped...
Fed Already Equipped to Navigate Supply Shocks
The Fed Already Has What it Needs to Navigate Supply Shocks--my latest newsletter with cameo appearance by @amacker and awesome Don Kohn link from @darioperkins. https://t.co/ihDcQmi2WI https://t.co/jbXalR3zRA
Oil’s Wild Swing Shows Volatility Is the Real Indicator
Oil -10% Monday. Oil +4% Tuesday. Same war. Same geopolitics. The volatility IS the signal. $USO $XLE $SPY https://t.co/Od9t9fzbbl
Intra-Asia Trade the Next Hunting Ground for M&A-Hungry Carriers
Intra‑Asia container trade emerged as the most profitable segment in 2025, with volumes nearing 50 million TEU. Taiwan’s Wan Hai Lines posted the highest operating margin at 18.9%, while Cosco’s $4.3 bn net profit was buoyed by strong intra‑Asia earnings. The region’s growth,...
Barclays Lifts 2026 S&P 500 Target to 7,650
Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks https://t.co/UIix0xSpIM
EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Launches May 1, Covering 25% of Global GDP
"EU says Mercosur free trade deal will start May 1, accounting for 25% of global GDP" https://t.co/357IyH3KRA https://t.co/tpysXMlyjm
Asia Looks to Covid-Era Playbook to Tackle Fuel Crisis
Asia, which purchases more than 80% of the crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz, is confronting a severe fuel shortage after Iran blocked the waterway following its war on February 28. Governments from South Korea to the Philippines are reviving...
Rising Plastic Costs Fuel Unexpected Inflation in Food Packaging
I wrote about plastic prices in yesterday's Odd Lots newsletter ahead of today's episode (which you should definitely listen to) Packaging really is an underappreciated driver of inflation, and plastics prices are already spiking You can't buy a bag of carrots without...
Markets Rally on Hope for US‑Israel Iran Peace Plan
Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds: There continues to be hope in the capital and commodity markets that a US-Israel war on Iran can be brought to a conclusion soon. While news reports indicate that the US had drafted a 15-point...
Africa Needs to Build an Economic Architecture that Renders It Immune to US Extortion
A leaked U.S. State Department memo threatens to cut HIV aid for roughly 1.3 million Zambians unless the government grants American firms access to its copper, lithium and cobalt mines. The document frames the move as a direct “America First” extortion...
ECB Leverages Monetary Policy to Tackle Energy Shock
The ECB’s response to the current energy price shock will be rooted in our monetary policy strategy which is well equipped to help us navigate it. That was my message at the #ECBWatchers conference. Read my speech https://t.co/dDjDthBlTi https://t.co/p1TD3EuhAz
France Joins Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, China, India, and Others in Europe and Asia to Recover From Oil Shock and...
France, together with Germany, Italy, Spain, Japan, China, India and other nations, is accelerating recovery from the recent oil shock and inflation as US‑Iran peace talks in Islamabad gain momentum. If the negotiations succeed, they could end the Middle East...
EU Must Ratify Trump’s Turnberry Deal or Forfeit First Call on US LNG
The European Union is pressing to ratify the Turnberry agreement, a sweeping U.S.-EU trade pact brokered at former President Trump’s Scottish resort, or risk losing preferential access to American liquefied natural gas. The deal, valued at roughly $750 billion in U.S....
Sudan's Pound Plummets to World's 6th Worst Currency
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by over 27% against the USD in the past year. https://t.co/6wm9wwnlxP
Oil-Rich Nations Seek to Gain on Price Hikes
Iran’s abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices soaring, prompting non‑Middle‑East exporters to step into the breach. Canada’s energy minister hailed the country’s surge as a strategic moment, positioning it as a reliable guarantor for allied...
UK Inflation Holds at 3% Ahead of Iran Conflict
UK inflation stayed at 3% in the weeks leading up to the Iran war https://t.co/WPMVXJqwKz via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/1H8Ml5iePk