Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep policy on hold throughout the year, as the United States’ domestic energy supply buffers inflation pressures. Bond yields in both regions have spiked, reflecting market concerns over divergent central‑bank actions. Europe’s greater exposure to volatile oil and gas prices underpins the policy split.
Fed Expands FIMA Access, Extends Window, Could Crash Yields
This is a really great divergent policy thought we should keep on our radar. If it comes to fruition, we could see a collapse in treasury yields. Fantastic work from @ericwallerstein ! “The solution: the Fed should expand FIMA access to sovereign wealth...
Australia Begins to Shut Down
Australia is confronting an acute diesel shortage that is beginning to choke key sectors of its economy. DP World Australia warned that without prioritized fuel deliveries, container terminals could slow or cease operations, jeopardizing both imports and exports. Rising fuel...
Asia Is Getting Crushed Between Oil Prices and the Dollar
Asian economies from India to South Korea are feeling a double squeeze as oil prices spike and the U.S. dollar reaches its strongest level against regional currencies in two decades. The war in the Middle East has choked the Strait...
Trump to China in May; Iran War; Manus Mess; Mexico Heading for the Trade Doghouse
President Donald Trump announced a two‑day visit to Beijing on May 14‑15, contingent on the Iran war ending by May 13. The trip follows his public statement linking the cease‑fire to his diplomatic agenda. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice...
Gulf Nations Unite for Strait Security, Boost Asian Trade
It's the first time in 60 years you've heard Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar all sing from the same song sheet, saying status quo doesn't work. That's really good for everybody because that's a lot more trade into Asia. That'll...
Trump May Announce Iran Ceasefire Even WITHOUT a Deal, Israeli Media Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a public cease‑fire announcement with Iran as early as Saturday, even if no formal agreement is in place. Israeli officials, cited by outlets such as N12 and Al Qahera, view the move as...
Oil Shock Won’t Drive New Pipelines for Canada
Canada Doesn’t Need New Pipelines, Despite Oil Shock Economist Werner Antweiler says that a short-term oil shock doesn't overcome the many reasons why Asia won't be a market for Alberta heavy sour crude. #abpoli #ableg https://youtu.be/GUwULJF2jfc
Oil Instability Calls for Diversified Natural Resource ETFs
Oil markets have been jolted by the 2026 Iran war, with prices swinging sharply on each new development. The volatility makes pure‑play energy exposure risky for investors and advisors. FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources ETF (GUNR) offers a diversified...
On the Iran War, a Deep Disconnect Between Experts and Policymakers
A poll of 641 Middle‑East scholars shows only 5% backed a U.S.–Israeli war on Iran and just 1% expected a pro‑American regime change, while 84% anticipate significant instability in Iran over the next five years. Experts correctly predicted that the...
Fed's Miran, Trump's Puppet at the Bank, Calls for Rate Cuts, Like He Always Does
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
Saudi Arabia Looks to Africa as It Spreads Its Economic Wings
Saudi Arabia has accelerated its push into Africa, pledging $41 bn of investment through Vision 2030 to diversify away from oil. The focus centers on logistics hubs like Djibouti, large‑scale renewable energy and desalination projects, and securing food and mineral supplies....
Oil Futures Surge $580 M Minutes Before Trump’s Iran Pause, Triggering Insider‑Trading Probe
A sudden $580 million rush of oil futures contracts hit the market minutes before President Donald Trump announced a five‑day cease‑fire on attacks against Iran, prompting the CFTC to launch an insider‑trading investigation. The spike coincided with a 10% drop in...
Philippines Declares Energy Emergency, Seeks 1M Barrels Amid Iran Conflict
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. placed the Philippines under a one‑year national energy emergency and announced a plan to purchase one million barrels of oil to extend the country's fuel stock to about 45 days. The move follows a sharp price...
Oil Prices Juggle Conflicting US, Iran, Israel Headlines
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Oil Shock Forces Fed, Bonds, and Outflows Higher
TLT lost $1.2B. HYG lost $623M. 10Y at 4.38% and rising. In a war. Who buys the bond dip? Foreign CBs may be selling to defend currencies vs DXY near 100. Pension funds face oil inflation that muddies the real yield math. Rate-cut traders...
This Corner of the EM Bond Market Is Worth Checking Out
Emerging‑market corporate bonds are delivering yields well above U.S. benchmarks, and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (EMCB) exemplifies this trend with a 5.07% SEC yield. The actively managed ETF holds a 3.97‑year effective duration, positioning it as an...
Oil Surge Signals Market Crash, Gold Surge, Inflation Spike
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
Markets Hedge Both Ceasefire and War, Await Resolution
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
Bunker Fuel Shortages in Asia at Tipping Point as War Disruption Continues
Asian ocean carriers are currently managing bunker fuel supplies, but tightening inventories signal a looming shortage if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global fuel suppliers warn that prolonged closure could trigger worldwide deficits. To cushion the impact, operators are...
Singapore’s Central Bank Pilots XRP Ledger for Cross-Border Trade
Singapore’s Monetary Authority has invited Ripple to join its Borderless, Liquid, Open, Online, Multicurrency initiative, using the XRP Ledger and Ripple’s USD‑linked stablecoin (RLUSD) to settle cross‑border trade. The pilot automates payment release the moment a shipment is verified, eliminating...
India's LPG Shortage Threatens Households Amid Hormuz Closure
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
Canadian Auto Production Fell in 2025 as Tariffs and Other Uncertainty Took a Bite
Canadian auto production slipped another 7% in 2025, falling to 1.2 million vehicles, marking a second consecutive year of decline. The drop is largely attributed to the United States’ 25% tariffs imposed in March and lingering uncertainty around the electric‑vehicle transition....
Ukraine's Strikes Cut 40% of Russia's Oil Exports
Ukraine struck another Russian export terminal today. Reuters calculates that 40% of Russian oil export capacity is currently offline. Ukrainian sanctions at work.
General Predicts Limited Impact of US Boots in Iran
I thought this was an interesting interview with a former general about what "boots on the ground" in Iran might look like, and also what would (and wouldn't be accomplished) by some landing on Kharg Island https://t.co/DDEilUbnMz
Bond Yields Fall After Promising Iran News, Offering Relief Following Latest Mortgage Rate Jump
Mortgage rates surged to a 6.43% 30‑year fixed level as the Iran conflict intensified, pushing borrowing costs higher. Ten‑year Treasury yields fell to around 4.32% after reports of U.S.–Tehran de‑escalation talks, offering a modest relief for mortgage pricing. The Federal...
Japan Minister Discusses War‑Driven Commodity Risks, Seeks Asian Stability
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...
Crash Risk Persists Despite Market Bounce Over Iran Conflict
The Market Bull/Bear Case: US-Israel War on Iran There's always a bull vs. bear case & I made mine. And just because market is trying to have a reflexive bounce, it doesn't negate that crash risk is still critical as fundamentals...
Maersk Warns of Prolonged Hormuz Shutdown as Shipping Costs Surge
Maersk warned that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed to commercial traffic, forcing a reshaping of its global shipping network. The carrier announced an Emergency Bunker Surcharge and a Hormuz Freight surcharge to cover higher fuel and rerouting costs....
Stranded LNG Cargoes Lose Gas Through Boil‑off Evaporation
@grok There are about 20 LNG cargoes stranded in the Gulf because of the Hormuz crisis, explain to my followers how they lose LNG due to evaporation.
China Prepares for Imminent Hormuz Strait Closure
I said last June-July: China got the message, Hormuz Strait will be closed, and started preparing for it. Read details below.
Analyzing Strategic Risks in the Strait of Hormuz
My appearance today @OnPointRadio with @MeghnaWBUR talking about the Strait of Hormuz. On Point: https://t.co/X1Zkk3Qebt Spotify: https://t.co/ZpzVC27zml Apple: https://t.co/4ahkNZRGed
Resuming Hormuz Traffic Crucial Amid Iran War Uncertainty
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
IEA Chief to Brief EU Ministers on Iran War Impact
IEA chief to brief EU finance ministers on Iran war impact this week https://t.co/MQ3pSEFj3B via @europressos https://t.co/7Eo8OA83pz
Italy Slashes Growth Forecast to 0.5%
Italy is said to plan cutting growth forecast to as low as 0.5% https://t.co/H1osZtypmg via @Alemrome @donatopmancini https://t.co/NxADoXpQ0s
Live in 40 Minutes: Fed Governor Stephen Miran
Going live with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran in 40 minutes - tune in! @federalreserve
Hormuz Crisis Threatens Europe, Fuels US Inventory Uncertainty
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
Oil Importers Intervene; Turkey's Thin Reserves Raise Risk
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
US Faces $10 Trillion Debt Refinance, Interest Pressure Rising
TEN TRILLION DOLLARS of existing US gov’t debt needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. This spells more trouble for the out-of-control federal budget in which net interest expense already accounts for 14% of federal spending and is growing...
Gold Shines, Siri Stands Alone, Iran War Hurts Economies
🆓 Wednesday links: gold's safe-haven status, standalone Siri, and the economic pain of the Iran war. https://t.co/2egB9QZjgV image: https://t.co/98xXyDFF3F https://t.co/3zk2NqUkqL
Paper
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
ICC Warns Worst Industrial Crisis Amid Iran Strait Conflict
International Chamber of Commerce head. May be facing ‘worst industrial crisis’. Iran war. Strait. Supply of supply chains.
Iran Rewards Spain with Free Hormuz Passage After Condemnation
🚨 LATEST Iran grants Spain free passage through the Strait of Hormuz The move comes right after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly called the war “illegal” and a “colossal mistake.” https://t.co/l8uXSjtTvr
Strait Closure Threatens Global Chemical Supply Chains
Strait closure. Global chemical supply chains and production? And what those chemicals are needed for?
US‑Iran Conflict Bolsters Russia’s Grip on Global Food Markets
“An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up,” she said. On how the US war with Iran is strengthening Russia...
Commodities Outpace S&P, Hinting Lower Stock High
did the rally of stocks $SPX vs. commodities since the '22 bottom roll over making a bigger picture lower high in favour of commodities? hmmm.... 👀 https://t.co/06LFvU59Fx
China Struggles to Pair Surplus with Limited Foreign Asset Growth
China's dilemma is that while it can reduce SAFE's exposure to the Treasury market, it hasn't found a way to consistently combine a big external surplus and limited state foreign asset growth. The state banks are doing something...
Geopolitics, History, and Euro Rate Hikes Shape Markets
NEW PODCAST EPISODE. 1) How the Iran situation changes the outlook 2) Lessons from the 1990 recession 3) Are the Europeans seriously gonna hike (again..)
Import Prices Up 2.5% YoY Amid Trump Tariffs
Looks like exporters forgot to eat Trump's tariffs, import prices rose 1.1% in February and 2.5% year-over-year https://t.co/3UkarMgRx7
Saudi Red Sea Oil Shipments Near 5 Million‑Barrel Target
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT