Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
As Long-Term Bonds Fail to Protect Again, Where Can Investors Find Safety?
Manulife Investment Management’s CIO Nathan Thooft warns that long‑duration U.S. Treasury bonds have again failed to act as a hedge, as equities and bonds moved together amid the US‑Israeli conflict and rising inflation. He argues that the positive equity‑bond correlation, first seen in 2022, is becoming structural due to persistent fiscal‑spending concerns and sticky inflation. Thooft suggests investors turn to a diversified set of diversifiers—medium‑term “belly” bonds, cash, the U.S. dollar, commodities and alternative assets—rather than relying solely on the traditional 60/40 mix. The shift calls for a rethink of portfolio construction to preserve downside protection.
1990 Crisis: Central Banks Opted for Inaction Amid Uncertainty
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Blockade Risks Spike Prices, Yet Market Already Priced In
Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war -...
Carney's Grand Ambition On Trade Does Not Include Trump
Former NATO secretary‑general Anders Fogh Rasmussen is championing a new “D7” trade coalition of affluent democracies to lessen reliance on U.S. trade policy. The idea, echoed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, draws on the CPTPP and the European Union...
High‑Yield Spreads Tight Now, Widening Ahead
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
Ignoring Climate Risks Threatens 20% Global GDP Loss
The sad truth... This pattern is not limited to climate change. Too often, the economy stands above health, peace, environment and even people. Nothing seems to come before the economy... When it comes to climate, the economy is often treated as the...
Trump’s Tariff War Has Failed on Every Front
President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, launched over the past 14 months, has failed to meet its stated goals of boosting U.S. manufacturing and reshaping global trade. Instead, the duties have increased import prices, prompted retaliatory measures from key trading...
FMCG Companies Plan to Hike Prices, Cut Grammage
Fast‑moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms are preparing selective price hikes and smaller pack sizes as crude oil prices surge amid the West Asia conflict. Packaging and logistics costs have jumped 15‑20%, prompting companies like Parle, Dabur and AWL Agri to...
A Lost Decade for Bonds Means High-Quality Stocks Are Best Way to Protect...
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson warns that bonds will deliver a lost decade of returns. He argues that persistent, three‑decade inflation driven by war‑related debt and pandemic stimulus makes high‑quality U.S. stocks the best hedge. Wilson recommends...
Europe Bond Market Doubts Grow Over Recovery From War Rout
European sovereign bond markets remain under pressure after a sharp sell‑off triggered by the Middle East war, and analysts say a swift end to the conflict is unlikely to spark a rapid rebound. Intermittent rallies have emerged on hopes of...
The Daily Feather — Not Importing Progress
At the March 18 FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell asked whether policymakers should look through the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran‑Ukraine conflict. Recent data show import prices for consumer goods and industrial supplies climbing 5‑6% year‑over‑year,...
Fertiliser Price Surge Due to Iran War Coincides with US Planting Season
The renewed Iran war has disrupted urea and ammonium nitrate production, slashing exports and driving global fertilizer prices up roughly 30 percent. The price surge coincides with the critical U.S. planting window, adding $10‑$20 per acre to corn fertilizer costs....
Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed While Bonds and Stocks Weaken
The U.S. dollar is trading in a narrow range against G10 currencies while equities and bonds are under pressure. A potential escalation in the Middle East, highlighted by Tehran’s rejection of a U.S. cease‑fire proposal, is dampening risk appetite. Oil...
Top Links 1053 The Costs of the Iran War. VW to Make the Iron Dome. Hegemony Is What You Make...
The Pentagon estimates that the first two days of the current U.S. war against Iran have cost roughly $5.6 billion in munitions, with the first week’s expense doubling to about $11 billion. These figures, highlighted by Brookings analyst Michael O’Hanlon, underscore the...
Consumer Outlook on UK Economy Falls to Two-Year Low
BRC‑Opinium data released in early March shows UK consumer confidence plunging to –53, the lowest reading since the index began in 2024 and a sharp decline from –30 in February. While retail spending ticked up modestly (+2 points), personal financial...
Trump's 6‑Week Iran Deadline Triggers Market Volatility
🚨 TRUMP SETS 4–6 WEEK DEADLINE TO END IRAN CONFLICT President Trump is pushing for a quick resolution within 4 to 6 weeks and has proposed a 15-point peace plan that includes dismantling Iran’s nuclear sites. Meanwhile, the U.S. is deploying 1,000...
Gold Slides as Inflation Data Stokes Fed Rate‑Hike Fears
Gold prices slipped sharply after U.S. import prices rose 1.3% month‑over‑month, reviving fears of persistent inflation and prompting Federal Reserve officials to signal further rate hikes. The move underscores growing market anxiety over the Fed’s dual mandate.
Iran War Sends Shockwaves Through Energy, Fertilizer and Consumer Goods Supply Chains
The war sparked by Iran’s confrontation with the United States and Israel has closed the Strait of Hormuz, driven Brent crude above $100 a barrel and halted key fertilizer shipments, while India grapples with an LPG shortage that threatens millions...
Meta's $2 B AI Deal Stalled by China Travel Ban on Executives
Meta's $2 billion acquisition of a Singapore‑based artificial‑intelligence company has hit a regulatory snag as Chinese authorities barred two of the firm’s executives from leaving the country. The move underscores the geopolitical headwinds facing large cross‑border tech deals.
European Shares Slip as ECB Rate‑Hike Fears Hit Major Stocks
European equities fell sharply on Thursday as investors priced in higher ECB rates, dragging down a range of listed companies from Germany’s SMA Solar to France’s Vinci. The sell‑off coincided with a $1.4 billion Henkel acquisition, a 1% revenue dip at...
Russia Caps Cash Ruble Exports to EAEU at $100,000 per Person From April 1
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that, effective April 1, 2026, prohibits individuals from exporting cash rubles worth more than $100,000 to Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) members. Legal entities and individual entrepreneurs are barred from any cash export, with limited...
Iran's Hormuz Closure Sends Brent to $104, Triggers Global Energy Shock
Iran’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz has driven Brent crude up to $104 a barrel, a 40% jump since the war began, while roughly 2,000 vessels remain stranded. The move fuels a price surge, a de‑facto toll‑booth regime...
Foreign-Trade Zones Explained & Applied
Foreign‑Trade Zones (FTZs) are secured U.S. sites where imported goods remain outside customs territory, allowing companies to defer or eliminate duties until the merchandise is released. Recent tariff spikes and shifting trade policy have revived interest in FTZs as a...
The Iran War Is Hitting Every Node in the LNG Supply Chain
The ongoing war in Iran is disrupting every node of the regional liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain, choking exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. With Gulf output curtailed, European and Asian buyers are forced to vie for...
Chinese Foreign Minister Urges Iran to negotiate...COSCO Restarts Middle East Container Bookings, Avoids Hormuz...China Eastern Airlines Places $15BN Airbus Order
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iran to negotiate with the United States to end the Middle East war, highlighting Beijing’s concern over oil supply disruptions. Meanwhile, state‑owned COSCO Shipping Lines resumed container bookings to six Gulf markets by bypassing...
What’s Next for Cuba?
The Trump administration has imposed a de facto blockade on Cuba’s fuel imports, plunging the island into a deep economic and humanitarian crisis. President Donald Trump repeatedly declares the Cuban regime’s “imminent demise” yet offers no concrete roadmap for post‑regime governance....
COSCO Resumes Gulf Bookings
China’s state‑backed COSCO Shipping Lines announced it will resume new bookings for standard freight containers from the Far East to the Gulf, covering the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq. The decision reverses a March 4 suspension triggered by...
The Biggest Winners and Losers of the Tariff War as AI-Related Trade Skyrockets
The McKinsey Global Institute report finds that despite record‑high U.S. tariffs, global trade expanded faster than the world economy in 2025, with AI‑related shipments accounting for roughly one‑third of that growth. U.S.–China trade fell about 30%, wiping out $130 bn in...
Iran War: Why a Trump Climbdown Won’t Save Asia’s Economies
A year after President Trump’s trade assault, Asian economies escaped tariff fallout thanks to market pressure and AI‑driven growth, but the Iran‑Israel war has reignited a severe energy shock. Goldman Sachs warns that soaring oil and LNG prices could derail...
German Sentiment Slumps Amid Iran War, Stagflation Fears
Good Morning from Germany, where consumer sentiment is sliding as the Iran war fuels fears of stagflation. The GfK consumer sentiment index dropped by 3.2 points to -28.0, the weakest readings since 2024. Income expectations have fallen back into negative territory,...
China’s $1.2 Trillion Export Surplus Ghost Economy
China’s annual trade surplus now exceeds $1.2 trillion, yet official foreign‑exchange reserves remain around $3 trillion. Export firms split operations between domestic manufacturers and offshore entities in Hong Kong, Singapore or the UAE, invoicing only production costs locally while retaining full profits abroad...
Barclays Sees 13–14 Million Bpd Oil Supply Loss From Prolonged Hormuz Disruption
Barclays estimates that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would remove 13‑14 million barrels per day from global oil supply, representing roughly 13% of projected 2026 demand. The bank warns that if the disruption extends into late April, Brent...
Trust the Dollar, Not the Treasury
Investors are demanding a higher risk premium on U.S. Treasuries, while confidence in the U.S. dollar remains largely intact. A recent study measuring convenience yields shows a sharp decline for short‑term and 10‑year Treasuries since 2024, but the dollar’s convenience...
Iran's Hormuz Fee Push Spurs Focus on Malacca
Iran's bid to start charging a fee to vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz (Tehran never ratified the UNCLOS despite signing it in 1982) is making other countries ensure they don't encounter such risks in other chokepoints -- the Straits...
Iran War Derails Global Economic Optimism
Iran war just canceled a better economic outlook for the world https://t.co/4zqeIEwXkO via @CraigStirling @WHorobin https://t.co/hfVE77iQwZ
Pentagon's Puzzling Move Despite Iran's Desperation and US Victory
The negotiations are going so well, Iran is so desperate for a deal and the US has already won the war... So, why is the Pentagon considering this?
Global Trade Faces Fragmentation Amid Geopolitical Upheaval
From Liberation Day to the Strait of Hormuz, is global trade and world order going thru an upheaval? Will the world move go from bifurcation or trifurcation to fragmentation? Who will dominant? What would supply chains look like and operate...
Markets Shift From Rate Cuts to Tightening Regime
Six months ago: markets pricing 3+ rate cuts. Now: pricing 8bps of TIGHTENING. The Fed didn't pivot. The Fed reversed. 37% chance of ZERO cuts in 2026. This isn't a soft landing. This is a regime change. $SPY $TLT $QQQ https://t.co/UxC4Gdd51F
Trump Threatens NATO, Tariffs Raise Putin Concerns
“NEVER FORGET”. Trump’s threat to NATO. And its countries. Tariffs. Then? What is Putin thinking? https://t.co/9rM5Qpfg8L
Deutsche Bank's Index Quantifies Presidential Pressure Using Markets
"Maximilian Uleer and his team at Deutsche Bank developed a simple and useful index of the pressure on the president, an equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential...
OECD: Middle East War Hits UK Growth Hardest
I can't imagine why..👀👀 UK faces biggest hit to growth from Middle East war, OECD warns https://t.co/ktp9YMPz8O via @ft
Saudi Lobbying US to Prolong War for Oil Profits
The Saudis are lobbying the US for war to continue. On the surface, they want Iran to be properly defeated, but there's another reason. They're making lots more money now than before the war, even with somewhat lower export volumes...
OECD: UK Suffers Biggest Economic Blow From War
UK faces worst hit from the war among major economies, OECD warns https://t.co/Uhp1SWBHHa via @PhilAldrick https://t.co/tx47vbOjRe
Germany Warns Iran Crisis Could Halve 2026 Growth
Germany sees the danger of its 2026 growth rate halving on the Iran crisis https://t.co/nHLUdPr4mQ via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/VRembvehDw
Middle East Conflict Reignites Inflation, Stalls Global Recovery
The conflict in the Middle East is reviving the specter of inflation and hobbling the global economy just as it was showing signs of strengthening at the start of the year, the OECD says https://t.co/QZXRbRvX44 via @WHorobin https://t.co/YbWb9a8eX6
US Yield Spike Driven by Term Premia, Not Inflation
The move higher in US yields has been entirely driven by term premia, not inflation expectations. Real yields on 10-year bonds are the highest in almost a year. The implication seems to be that investors are worried about the fiscal...
Norges Bank Signals Upcoming Rate Hike This Year
🇳🇴 Norges Bank hawkish pivot charted. The policy rate is expected to be raised "at one of the forthcoming meetings" assuming the economy "evolves broadly as currently envisaged". https://t.co/3LIbGfEvOW
Norway Signals Rate Hike After Holding at 4%
Norway pivots toward a hike after keeping its rate steady at 4% https://t.co/NIIgGpvVNO via @ottummelas https://t.co/RxPhCKi99b
Germany Prepares Countermeasures Against US Firms Amid Trump Tensions
Germany is drafting a plan to hit US companies in the next Trump clash https://t.co/hK1ZWwcd6t via @KowalczeKamil @mcnienaber @jendeben https://t.co/KgvNfStbJo
Singapore Sees China as Engine for Regional Growth
1/6 Bloomberg: "“Singapore believes China can play a bigger role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said at the Boao Forum. “Its vast domestic market can be a powerful engine of growth for the region.” https://t.co/npbm7nXQEo