Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Dipan Mehta: Don't Call the Bottom yet; Here's What to Watch Instead
Indian equities are currently reacting more to US President Donald Trump’s statements than to fundamentals, with oil price swings amplifying market volatility. Dipan Mehta of Elixir Equities warns that the March earnings quarter will be tepid and the June quarter could be disastrous as companies absorb war‑related shocks. He says a true market bottom will only be confirmed when the Russia‑Ukraine conflict de‑escalates and chart patterns shift to higher highs and higher lows. In the meantime, he advises upgrading to high‑quality large‑cap stocks and positioning for post‑war energy and defence themes.
China’s Growth Model Hinges on Weak Consumption, Excess Investment
The East is Red provides a translation of a very interesting essay by Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute. The problem with the Chinese economy, Wang says (and as I have argued for over a decade), is...
Fashion Briefing: How Watch Heavyweights Swatch and SwissWatchExpo Are Responding to War in the Middle East
The escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran is causing the most severe supply‑chain disruption in the luxury watch sector since the 1970s. Swatch and SwissWatchExpo, two industry heavyweights, are scrambling to protect sales by shifting inventory and event planning away from...
Russian SMO Enters Doldrums Under Shadow of Iran Conflict
Recent Russian offensives across the Lyman‑Borova, Konstantinovka and Zaporozhye axes have yielded scant territorial gains and reported heavy losses, especially a mechanized push halted on March 19. Ukrainian sources claim over 400 Russian casualties and the destruction of dozens of...
Tanker Carrying Russian Oil Hit By Drone Attack in Black Sea
A Sierra Leone‑flagged Suezmax tanker, the Altura, was struck by drones near the Bosporus, damaging its bridge and engine room but causing no crew injuries. Turkish officials say the attack likely involved an unmanned underwater vehicle, a rare method in...
G-7 Meets in France to Narrow Transatlantic Iran Split
Foreign ministers of the G‑7 gathered in France to bridge a widening transatlantic rift over the Iran‑Israel war, as President Donald Trump warned of severe retaliation if Tehran rejects a peace deal. The two‑day summit, chaired by France, also featured...
Bank of Korea Flags Financial Stability Risks as Iran War Fallout Persists
The Bank of Korea says South Korea’s financial system stayed broadly stable in March but warns that Middle‑East tensions, uneven growth and persistent housing price gains could spark volatility. Board member Lee Soohyung highlighted the risk of foreign‑exchange swings, capital...
Quality or Price? Asia’s US$7tn Consumption Growth Hinges on Changing Priorities
Asia is projected to generate an additional US$7 trillion in private consumption over the next ten years, a 40% rise comparable to adding today’s entire Chinese consumer market. A new Roland Berger report finds quality is the primary driver in fast‑growing economies...
Henry Huiyao Wang: Middle Powers Are Taking up the Mantle of Multilateral Leadership
Henry Huiyao Wang argues that as the United States steps back from global stewardship, middle powers are assuming the mantle of multilateral leadership. He points to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‑Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as a flagship of this...
BHP Exec Says Energy Shocks Will Stall Climate Action and Strain Supply Chains
Geraldine Slattery, president of BHP’s Australian operations, warned that ongoing energy disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions are pushing nations to prioritize supply security over climate goals. The warning comes as oil prices have surged 35% and BHP faces pressure over...
Dangote Refinery Leverages Middle‑East Crisis to Expand Africa’s Downstream Market
Aliko Dangote’s refinery has lifted its ex‑depot gasoline price to N1,285 per litre – its fifth hike in March – as the U.S.–Israel war on Iran pushes crude to $120 a barrel. The move deepens Dangote’s downstream foothold while sparking...
FTSE 100 Gains Over 1% on Middle East De‑escalation Hopes and UK Inflation Data
The FTSE 100 jumped 1.2% on Tuesday, buoyed by signs of a diplomatic thaw in the Middle East and expectations that UK inflation data could support a softer monetary stance. Traders cited the rally as a barometer of renewed risk...
March 2026 Flash PMI Shows Global Slowdown and Inflation Spike Amid Iran War
S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys for March 2026 show business activity edging closer to stagnation worldwide, with the eurozone slipping to 50.5 and the UK composite at 51.0. At the same time, input‑cost inflation jumped as Brent crude...
UK Gilts Spike Above 5% as Iran War Fuels Inflation and Fiscal Concerns
UK government bonds surged as the 10-year gilt yield briefly crossed the 5% mark on March 20, the highest level since the 2008 crisis. Traders link the jump to inflation pressures from the Iran‑Israel war and worries that the Treasury’s...
Swiss National Bank Says 2025 Saw Record Swiss Franc Bond Issuances
The Swiss National Bank disclosed that 2025 delivered a record volume of new Swiss franc bond issuances and a surge in issuers, signaling deeper market liquidity. While exact figures were not disclosed, the report came alongside the SNB’s decision to...
Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Odds to 30%, up From 25%
Goldman Sachs increased its estimate of a U.S. recession this year to a 30% probability, up from 25% a week earlier. The revision reflects tighter labor markets, higher oil prices and diminishing fiscal and monetary headroom. Competing forecasts from peers...
BlackRock's Rieder Urges Fed to Cut Rates
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said today he still thinks the 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve should cut interest rates - Bloomberg
Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: US Says Iran Talks Ongoing (Podcast)
The White House affirmed that diplomatic talks with Iran remain active, even as Tehran publicly rebuffed U.S. overtures and set new preconditions for ending the conflict. The discord underscores heightened tensions that have already rattled Middle‑East stability and global financial...
Why the Ultra‑Wealthy See Pacific Nations Like Nauru as the Next Safe Haven
Affluent individuals and families are rapidly securing second passports as a hedge against escalating geopolitical tensions, driving a 62% surge in citizenship‑by‑investment (CBI) applications since 2023. Nauru’s newly launched program, which ties passport purchases to a Climate Resilience Fund, has...
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RCEP Explained: Fostering Global Trade Relations
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) entered into force in 2022, creating the world’s largest free‑trade bloc with 15 Asia‑Pacific economies. Together the members represent roughly 30% of global GDP and population, and the pact cuts tariffs across a broad...
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Forex and Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Policies: A Comprehensive Guide
The guide explains beggar‑thy‑neighbor policies—tariffs, quotas, and currency devaluation—as tools nations use to protect domestic industries at the expense of trade partners. It traces the concept from Adam Smith’s critique through the Great Depression, post‑World War II Japan, and the 1990s...
Here Comes the Crash
Bond market volatility is accelerating, with the MOVE index climbing to 103.01 by mid‑2026. The surge coincides with a sharp rise in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, signaling heightened uncertainty in fixed‑income markets. Simultaneously, the equity‑focused VIX index mirrors this turbulence,...
Early Shift: Commodities Outsize Financial Assets Importance
It’s only appropriate to revisit this chart after the recent move in markets. And yes… We’re still in the early innings of a regime shift from financial assets to hard assets. The reality is simple: Commodity markets play a critical role, yet their size...
Gulf Crisis Could Cripple Energy Markets Until 2027
The FAT TAIL for the Persian Gulf crisis Prolonged energy disruption & economic dislocation THRU 2027, says @ProfessorKaren That assumes the conflict is resolved in April or May
Foreign Issuers Triple Panda Bond Sales to $4 B in March Amid Iran Conflict
Foreign issuers pushed panda bond sales in mainland China to 27.8 bn yuan ($4 bn) in March, more than tripling year‑to‑date volume. The surge comes as the Iran war pushes borrowers toward the yuan‑denominated on‑shore market, marking a record month for foreign...
Deal Won’t Quickly Restore Kuwait Oil Production
Even if a “deal” happens tomorrow, the damage doesn’t reset Kuwait Petroleum says full production recovery takes 3–4 months A ceasefire is just the start of a long, uneven rebuild #Oil #Kuwait #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #SupplyShock #Geopolitics #OOTT #Markets
Opening Strait of Hormuz Crucial for Global Energy Security
Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee agree that the opening the Strait of Hormuz is important Where's DOGE when you need to cut fraud and waste?
U.S. Stocks Slip as Iran Tensions Spike, S&P 500 Falls 0.4%
U.S. equities retreated on Tuesday as the S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, the Dow Jones fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% amid fresh missile strikes in the Middle East and contradictory statements from President Donald Trump and Tehran. The market...
Iran's $2 Million Strait Fee Shows Mutual Benefit
Finally, a little commerce is moving in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians benefit by charging up to $2 million for free passage and those who pass obviously benefit or they wouldn’t pay the transit fee. THREE CHEERS FOR COMMERCE. https://t.co/hzDa6MSkxF
Gas Prices Spike, Heralding Inflation Tsunami Ahead
Gasoline is telling you what this war really means. Up $1.00 a gallon in just 25 days. It's the first wave of the coming tsunami of inflation #GasPrices #Oil #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Hormuz #Economy #Geopolitics #War #OOTT
Supply Shock Coming, Consumer Confidence Rock Bottom: Warnings From the CommsCon Stage
The Business Council of Australia warned that a looming supply shock and accelerating inflation will put corporate trust to the test, as consumer confidence falls to its lowest level since the index began in 1973. ANZ’s head of strategic communications...
Weaponizing Hormuz Is Global Economic Terrorism, Says ADNOC CEO
“Weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation. It is economic terrorism against every nation, every family that depends on affordable energy and food.” Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. CEO Sultan Al Jaber says in speech at @MiddleEastInst...
Russia Halts Fertilizer Exports, Leveraging 40% Market Share
Russia stopped exports of ammonium nitrate through April to ensure domestic supply during planting season. Russia controls a massive portion of global trade in ammonium nitrate at about 40%. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSCOW IS SAYING SANCTIONS WILL HAVE TO GIVE OR FERTILIZER...
Mortgage Stress to Hit New High in 2026
Roy Morgan’s February 2026 analysis shows that 30.3 % of Australian mortgage holders would be “at risk” of stress if the Reserve Bank of Australia raises the cash rate by another 25 basis points in May, pushing stress levels back to...
U.S. Pursues Symbolic Victory Over Practical Strategy
These narratives are likely just a reflection of the U.S. searching for a symbolic win, rather than a practical military plan. #iranwar #marines #geopolitics https://t.co/tCey0wFpxi
Asia's Energy Shock: War Disrupts Middle Eastern Supply
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
Production Cuts, Cost Pressures Cloud War-Driven Commodity Windfall
Indonesia is seeing a surge in coal and crude palm oil (CPO) prices as the US‑Israeli war on Iran pushes oil to about $100 a barrel, prompting countries to seek cheaper coal and bio‑fuel alternatives. Newcastle coal futures have climbed...
EU Clinches Australian Mineral
Yesterday, the EU struck a trade deal with Australia to secure access to critical minerals, like lithium and aluminum. According to the NYT, US tariffs pushed the deal forward. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = CREATING AMERICAN ENEMIES = PIVOT AWAY FROM UNCLE SAM. https://t.co/Suer5RGrQO
Fed's Losses Shrink; QE Hangover Eases After QT
Fed’s Operating Losses Declined to $19 Billion in 2025, “Unrealized Losses” Declined to $844 Billion. QE hangover a little less atrocious after years of QT and lower interest rates https://t.co/iwXBD2STH5 https://t.co/JmA1t7ABYD
High Inflation Begets More Inflation
Australia is experiencing a fresh inflation shock as petrol and diesel prices surge. The spike affects roughly half of the consumer price index basket, given the nation’s reliance on diesel‑powered logistics. Rising diesel costs also lift fertilizer prices, adding upward...
China's $3T Surplus Hasn't Boosted US Bond Inflows
A thread on some work in progress, on China's US bond portfolio As the chart below shows, China's cumulative current account surplus has increased by $3 trillion since the end of 2019 -- and inflows into the US in the US...
US Examines $200 Oil Price Shock Impact on Economy
US officials are examining what a potential spike in oil prices as high as $200 a barrel would mean for the economy, sources tell @hlowenkron @SalehaMohsin and me, a sign of studying possible fallout from extreme scenarios for the #Iran...
The Oil Price Shock Could Make Italian Ice More Expensive
The U.S.-led war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, pushing gasoline costs for a heavy‑duty pickup in Houston from about $70 to $90 per tank. Phrostibe Italian Ice, a family‑run mobile vendor, is feeling the squeeze, redesigning delivery routes,...
Iran Says Mediated Messages Aren't US Negotiations
This has been a week of the most confusing and contradictory headlines I’ve ever seen in 30 years. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that an exchange of messages between the two countries through mediators “does not mean negotiations with...
Recent Geo Political Events Have an Impact on Food and Gas Prices
Economists note February CPI showed modest food price shifts—beef remains high while chicken and eggs fell. A new conflict with Iran has driven Texas gasoline up 90 cents, a 38% jump, foreshadowing higher March CPI. The war threatens the Strait...
Evil RBA Snuffs Out Economy
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has accelerated its tightening cycle, pushing the cash rate to 4.35% as inflation remains above target. The aggressive stance has sharply increased borrowing costs for households and businesses, curbing consumption and investment. Critics argue...
Ministers Must ‘Trade More’ in Face of Iran War
British Chambers of Commerce chief Shevaun Haviland will urge UK ministers to keep an energy‑bailout option on the table as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives oil prices higher, warning that disrupted shipping lanes will lift business energy costs. She stresses calm,...
General Predicts Limited Impact of US Boots in Iran
I thought this was an interesting interview with a former general about what "boots on the ground" in Iran might look like, and also what would (and wouldn't be accomplished) by some landing on Kharg Island https://t.co/DDEilUbnMz
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Japan Minister Discusses War‑Driven Commodity Risks, Seeks Asian Stability
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...