Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
After Maduro: Latin America’s Policy Community Reassesses the US-China Balance
The United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, prompting a hard‑power display that many Latin American analysts view as a game changer for regional geopolitics. The move reinforces U.S. coercive dominance while exposing China’s limited military reach, even as Beijing’s economic ties remain entrenched across the hemisphere. Policymakers in Brazil and Colombia are recalibrating: Brazil leans on the new EU‑Mercosur pact to diversify trade, while Colombia seeks closer security cooperation with Washington. Overall, the episode sharpens the U.S.–China rivalry but does not dismantle China’s structural economic influence.
US Stock Market Among Least Concentrated Globally
You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest...
Peter Mandelson’s Resignation ‘Slowed’ UK-US Trade Talks, Says US Ambassador
U.S. ambassador Warren Stephens said Peter Mandelson’s September resignation slowed the rollout of the UK‑U.S Economic and Prosperity Deal signed in May 2026. While the framework was quickly signed in the Oval Office, implementation has lagged, especially on pharmaceutical funding,...
Turkey Likely Used Gold Swap to Fund Lira Defense
Lots of hints that Turkey has done a gold swap to raise FX to fund the central bank's intervention to defend the lira. It didn't show up in the CBRT's reserve disclosure for March 19th (reporting is lagged a week). ...
Letters to Editor
The letters to the editor flag four pressing issues for India. A halted Russian oil import and the Hormuz Strait closure have strained the country’s energy supply, prompting calls for domestic gas, electric‑vehicle adoption, solar power and local oil extraction....
Costa Rica Colon Hits Two-Decade High, Pressuring Central Bank
Costa Rica’s colon surged to 465 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since 2005, marking a 7% gain this year. The rally was driven by robust export growth and increased foreign investment. In response, the central bank intervened, purchasing roughly...
Middle Eastern Conflict Compounding Already Volatile Fertilizer Markets
U.S. farmers are confronting a new wave of fertilizer cost pressure as the Middle Eastern conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for sulfur imports. The disruption threatens sulfur supplies essential for producing sulfuric acid, a core...
Cardoso Says the CBN Will Stay the Course as Reforms Yield Dividends
Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to ongoing reforms, highlighting eleven straight months of disinflation and a newly liberalised foreign‑exchange market that no longer requires intermediaries. He noted that 32 banks have satisfied the latest...
West Asia Conflict to Strain India's FY27 Fiscal Math, Says ICRA
India’s FY 2027 budget faces heightened pressure as the West Asia conflict drives global crude oil to $157 a barrel and natural‑gas prices to $22 per MMBtu, more than double pre‑crisis levels. Higher energy costs are expected to lift fertilizer and...
Saudi Wealth Fund Commits to Global Investments Despite Iran War
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, led by Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, reaffirmed its commitment to global investments despite the rising economic burden of the war with Iran. Al Rumayyan described the kingdom’s macroeconomic and physical position as strong, stable and resilient. He...
US Pressured France to Disinvite South Africa From G7 Summit, Pretoria Alleges
South Africa claims France withdrew President Cyril Ramaphosa’s invitation to the June G7 summit after the United States threatened to boycott the meeting if he attended. France, holding the G7 rotating presidency, cited logistical reasons and instead invited Kenya as...
OECD Says Iran War Has Erased Global Growth Upgrade
The OECD warns that the Iran‑Israel conflict has halted the global growth upgrade, as near‑total disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushes energy prices higher. Global GDP growth is now projected to fall to 2.9% in 2026,...
Five Forces Shaping Our Present and Future Risks
There are five major forces that together, operate in a big cycle: - Financial force – money, debts, markets, economy - Domestic political force – internal order and disorder, wealth gaps, and conflict between the left and the right - International world order...
Why Are 110 Certified Indian Ship Recycling Yards Frozen Out by Brussels?
The European Commission’s 15th edition of the European List of Ship Recycling Facilities names 41 approved yards, all outside South Asia, despite more than 110 Indian and 23 Bangladeshi yards holding Hong Kong Convention compliance certificates. South Asian facilities now process...
The Security Architecture of the Taiwan-US Trade Deal
On February 12, 2026 Taiwan and the United States signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), eliminating tariffs on roughly 99 percent of bilateral goods and expanding market access across multiple sectors. Beyond tariff cuts, the pact embeds a security architecture...
Bank Credit Surges 15% Amid Global Crisis, Recovery Expected
Bank credit growth seems to be back big time, with 15% growth at the end of Feb. While we have a global crisis on, the indicators earlier did see good signs. It could suck for a few months, but I...
Traders Bet on Iran De‑Escalation with Bullish Options Amid Market Commentary
Market participants are adding bullish options on the Iran conflict as the war shows signs of winding down, according to commentary from recent earnings calls and CLSA research. The shift reflects a broader move to hedge or speculate on geopolitical...
Oil Cracks $100 Barrier, Sends S&P 500 Large‑Cap Stocks Tumbling
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel, its highest level since 2022, prompting a wave of volatility across the S&P 500. Analysts warn that higher input costs and inflation risk could weigh on large‑cap energy, industrial and consumer firms.
India’s Cotton Imports Surge in 2025 as Lower Global Prices Drive Buying Spree
India’s cotton imports jumped 130% in volume and 92.5% in value in 2025, driven by a steep fall in global cotton prices. Lower import prices prompted textile manufacturers to increase purchases, seeking cost savings and higher quality raw material. Brazil...
Trump Reschedules Beijing Visit to May 14-15 Amid Iran War, Raising Emerging Market Stakes
President Donald Trump has moved his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping to May 14‑15 after postponing it to deal with the escalating war in Iran. The shift underscores a clash between U.S. Middle‑East commitments and its Asia‑Pacific strategy,...
War‑Time Economics Drive Oil, Bonds, Mortgage Rates
Today’s podcast, ignore the morning hair, is about war time #economics. #oil #bonds #mortgagerates #chartdaddy @housingwire @sarahteresa6
AUD and NZD Tumble Near Support as Middle‑East Oil Surge Fuels Risk‑off Sentiment
The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped to near‑key technical supports after Brent crude rebounded to just under $99 per barrel amid renewed Middle‑East conflict. Higher energy costs and a shift in global risk appetite are pressuring the two Southern‑Hemisphere currencies.
US‑Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Past $100, Sparking Massive Losses for Importers
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, triggering the sharpest macro‑economic shock in weeks. Energy‑importing economies from Kuwait to Japan face double‑digit GDP contractions, soaring import bills and heightened inflation, while Gulf diversifiers...
EPA Issues Temporary Nationwide E15 Waiver to Lower Gas Prices Amid Iran Conflict
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a May 1‑May 20 emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets soaring pump prices—now near $4 per gallon—linked to the Iran war and seeks to boost domestic...
Fed Governor Barr Warns Iran War Could Stall Inflation Decline and Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the escalating Iran war could lift oil and gasoline prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal and delaying any further rate cuts. The comment adds a geopolitical layer to the Fed’s dual‑mandate...
Trump Eyes China Deal, but Dragging Out Talks Risks Backlash, Warns Former Diplomat
Former U.S. diplomat Stephen Biegun says President Donald Trump will pursue an economic deal with China during his mid‑May visit to Beijing. The agenda is expected to focus on securing large‑scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural and manufacturing products. Biegun...
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Kim Meets Lukashenko as Russia Allies North Korea, Belarus Sign Friendship Treaty
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation during Lukashenko’s first official visit to Pyongyang. The ceremony featured a 21‑gun salute, schoolchildren waving flags, and a military honor guard, underscoring...
NEW REPORT - EV Endgame: Stalling China’s Export Surge in Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood
A new ECFR report details how Chinese electric‑vehicle and battery firms are rapidly establishing production and sales footholds across Morocco, Turkey, the Gulf states and broader MENA region. The strategy is designed to capture emerging market share while sidestepping looming...
Interview with Asharq Bloomberg TV Dubai 25.03.2026
In a recent Asharq Bloomberg TV interview, The Macro Butler warned that peace is a decorative concept while geopolitical friction in the Middle East is turning oil shipments into a costly toll road. He highlighted Iran’s recent actions that effectively...
Long SOFR Futures Cheap, Expect No Rate Hikes
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore...
As Long-Term Bonds Fail to Protect Again, Where Can Investors Find Safety?
Manulife Investment Management’s CIO Nathan Thooft warns that long‑duration U.S. Treasury bonds have again failed to act as a hedge, as equities and bonds moved together amid the US‑Israeli conflict and rising inflation. He argues that the positive equity‑bond correlation,...
1990 Crisis: Central Banks Opted for Inaction Amid Uncertainty
🧵Let me take you back to August 1990. Three weeks ago, Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices have surged, and the FOMC is meeting to decide how to respond. The economy looks wobbly. Payrolls just recorded a small decline. Greenspan talks...
Kazakhstan’s View of China Hardens After Ukraine War
Kazakhstan–China Relations: Perceptions of China After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Gaziza Shakhanova, 2026 https://t.co/lD5RrER3uG
Prolonged Shock Turns Temporary Crisis Into Lasting Economic Damage
"If this lasts longer than the four to five weeks that the president promised... this could do real and lasting damage." That's the whole game: duration turns a shock into an economic problem. https://t.co/dmeAL0v5ib
Krugman Explains Economic Impact of Iran Oil Embargo
If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @paulkrugman...
Yen Carry‑Trade Stress Triggers Kospi Slide, Global Ripple
Kospi just dropped 3%+. South Korea doesn't move 3% for no reason. Yen carry trade stress. Japan buying yen. Selling Treasuries to do it. Asian contagion doesn't stay in Asia. Watch $EEM. Watch $FXI. $VIX $SPY https://t.co/M3BpoEWXWm
Iran-Driven Reversals Signal Growing Pressure in Tight Range
We’re now on the fourth or fifth Iran-driven market reversal this week. Mon: rally on ceasefire talk Tue: selloff after denial Wed: rally on U.S. peace plan Thu: selloff as Iran pushed back Hard to keep up, but put simply, pressure is building inside a...
OECD Predicts US Inflation Hitting 4.2% Amid Tight Labor Market
"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...
AI Boom Fuels China's Record‑breaking Trade Despite Oil Shock
An investment boom in AI has kept China’s trade volumes on a path to exceed last year’s record levels, offsetting disruptions from higher oil prices in the weeks after war broke out in Iran https://t.co/L3nAViEgYs
Oil Prices Near $100 Amid Overoptimistic Peace Hopes
Brent crude nearing $100. Citi's CIO says markets show "excessive optimism" on peace. Iran rejected the latest US proposal. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. "Excessive optimism" is a polite way of saying: priced wrong. $OIL $XLE $SPY https://t.co/9YTglnhd8a
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd
Trump Appears Confused About Whether to Raise or Lower Prices
Old man Trump can't remember whether he was supposed to bring prices down or up https://t.co/1NEJ3Ji5fF
AI‑heavy Sectors See Slower Wage Growth
DB: Sectors with higher AI adoption have shown a more significant deceleration in wage growth. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/a0GkxtUZTB
US Export Sales Beat Forecast; Mexico Leads Corn, Soy
🇺🇸U.S. export sales met or exceeded expectations last week. Mexico and Colombia led in corn sales, and Germany and Mexico were the leaders in soybeans for new outright sales (China topped net sales, and those were due to a switch...
Gold Holds Despite Rising Real Yields—Warning Sign
Gold at $4,560. Real yields still elevated. Gold is supposed to fall when real yields rise. It's not falling. That's not a hedge. That's a warning. $GLD $TLT $SPY https://t.co/eAdLleClyB
War Beta Reveals Asset Sensitivity to Middle East Tensions
This morning is offering a beautiful moment to see what I call "War Beta" - how price sensitive specific assets are to changes in Middle East tensions.
Skipping Oil Embargo Prolonged Ukraine War, Says Analyst
Key mistake the West made after Putin's invasion of Ukraine was not to embargo Russian oil. The result is that - more than 4 years later - Russia is still waging war with appalling loss of life. A short, sharp...
War‑Driven Energy Prices Fuel Stagflation Amid 4.2% Inflation
The headline is 4.2 % US INFLATION The real story is STAGFLATION Longer war = higher energy prices Higher energy prices = inflation + weaker growth The only uncertainty is how long it lasts. #OECD #Oil #Inflation #Stagflation #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #Growth #oott...
Iran War Derails Global Economic Optimism
Iran war just canceled a better economic outlook for the world https://t.co/4zqeIEwXkO via @CraigStirling @WHorobin https://t.co/hfVE77iQwZ
Pentagon's Puzzling Move Despite Iran's Desperation and US Victory
The negotiations are going so well, Iran is so desperate for a deal and the US has already won the war... So, why is the Pentagon considering this?