Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
New MARAD Advisory Urges Ships to Disable AIS Tracking in Red Sea as Houthi Threat Lingers
The U.S. Maritime Administration issued a new advisory urging U.S.-flagged vessels transiting the Red Sea, Bab el‑Mandeb, Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea and Somali Basin to consider turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders. MARAD warns that Houthi militants continue to exploit AIS and other electronic emissions to locate and target commercial ships, even though attacks have temporarily eased. The guidance also calls for reduced electronic signatures, varied routing, and closer coordination with U.S. naval forces and UKMTO. The advisory highlights the persistent danger in one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors.
Weak Dollar Fails to Lift Emerging Markets Amid Rising Yields
The dollar is below 100 on the index, down nearly 5% over twelve months. Textbook says this boosts emerging markets. But emerging market ETFs are down sharply. The Kospi just fell 3% in a session. That correlation isn't working. Why? US Treasury...
Friday: Oil up 5% After Trump Threatens Iran
The episode examines how Donald Trump's threat of intensified strikes on Iran sparked a 5% jump in oil prices, pushing Brent above $100 per barrel and prompting a sell‑off in U.S. equities and a rise in bond yields. ANZ economists...
China, Iran and the Future of Taiwan
George Friedman argues China’s primary concern amid the Israel‑Iran war is preserving its access to the U.S. market, even as oil prices surge. Beijing’s restrained response reflects limited power projection and a strategic choice to avoid antagonising Washington, which supplies...
Is This Time Different? The Macro Signals Driving Renewed Gold Interest
Gold has surged roughly 50% over the past year, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500’s 14.5% gain. The rally is driven by rising inflation, higher oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk, especially the Strait of Hormuz tension. Federal Reserve rate hikes...
Oil Prices Rise as Wall Street Swings to Doubt on Iran Talks
Oil prices jumped on March 26 as Brent crude rose 4.8% to $101.94 a barrel, driven by renewed doubts over the Iran‑U.S. cease‑fire talks and heightened tension in the Strait of Hormuz. The rally pushed the S&P 500 down 1.2%, the Dow...
It’s No Longer the ‘American Century,’ But the US Continues to Dominate in Important Ways
The United States continues to dominate key global pillars despite the waning of the so‑called “American Century.” Its dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency and U.S. equities account for about half of global market capitalisation. The country leads high‑value...
War Adding $40-$50 Million per Week to Hapag-Lloyd's Costs: CEO
The Middle East conflict is inflating Hapag‑Lloyd’s operating costs by roughly $40 million to $50 million each week, according to CEO Rolf Habben Jansen. The surge stems primarily from higher bunker fuel prices, with insurance, container storage and inland transport also adding millions....
UK100 Slides, Trim Cyclicals Amid Commodity Shock Risk
Macro: UK100 -1.29% as Financials & Mining lead. Key: 3i to 52‑wk low; gold -3.5%, Brent +4.9%, USD firmer. Risk: commodity shock, sector contagion. Trade: trim cyclicals. Expect consolidation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
BOC Rogers: Will Have a Tough Job Dealing with Structural Changes to the Economy
The Bank of Canada (BoC) warned that structural shifts—declining immigration, evolving trade patterns and rapid AI adoption—will reshape Canada’s economy over the next five years. Combined with a recent rise in energy prices, these forces are expected to keep inflation...
What Iran’s Attacks on Turkey Reveal About NATO’s Future
Iran launched three ballistic missiles toward Turkish airspace, all intercepted by NATO air defenses, including an explosion near Incirlik Air Base. In response, NATO reinforced Turkey’s defenses by deploying a U.S. Patriot system near the Kürecik radar site. The incidents...
US 10‑Year Yield Climbs to Over 4.40%
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
Goldman Says the US Could Lose 10,000 Jobs a Month This Year as the Oil Shock Ripples Through the Economy
Goldman Sachs warns that the recent oil price shock could erase about 10,000 new jobs each month in the United States through the end of 2026. The bank projects the unemployment rate climbing to roughly 4.6% by year‑end, driven by...
SARB’s Short
𝗪𝗮𝗿, 𝗢𝗶𝗹, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘆 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗱 🇿🇦 The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) just mapped out two possible futures for South Africa's economy. 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝟭: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸 If the conflict ends within 2 months, oil averages just under $100/barrel, and the...
Unconstitutional Tariffs Deliver Costs Without Revenue—A Lose‑Lose
A wry aside (inspired by @stanveuger): Implementing unconstitutional tariffs ensures you get all of the distortions and costs of tariffs, and (assuming refunds are required) none of the revenue. Lose lose.
US Sells 7-Year Notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion of 7‑year notes at a 4.255% yield, just 0.3 basis points above the when‑issued rate, a tighter tail than the 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps seen in recent 2‑year and 5‑year sales. Meanwhile, 2‑year yields surged 8.8 bps...
War Prolongs Oil Price Surge Despite SPR Release
With Brent crude around $109, following the decision to release 400 million barrels from the SPR, along with waivers for Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil entering the market, the path is clear: The longer the war drags on, the higher...
Sharpie Maker Warns Tariffs Threaten Tennessee Reshoring
The maker of Sharpie - praised by Trump & other US protectionists - says its "investments in production in Tennessee rely on imported equipment, and the company worries that higher tariffs on those machines could make reshoring and local production...
WTO's Dispute Settlement System Should Be Fully Functional, Says Piyush Goyal
India urged WTO members to restore a fully functional dispute settlement system, warning that the current paralysis deprives nations of effective redress. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also called for a careful review of the ongoing moratorium on customs duties for...
Iran War Forces Asian Airlines to Add Surcharges
Airlines are being hit HARD in Asia by the war in Iran. Both KLM and Air France have added SURCHARGES on long-haul flights while airlines cancel HUNDREDS of other flights. KLM & AF SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP...
Israel Builds Buffer Zone, Illegally Occupies 8% of Lebanon
In an attempt to ANNEX southern Lebanon, Israel is now setting up fortifications & creating a so-called “buffer zone” between Israel & Lebanon. Israel is already ILLEGALLY occupying about 8% of Lebanon’s territory. https://t.co/9FEQdXkvKH
The Iran War Has Already Unleashed a $25 Billion Energy Repair Bill
The ongoing Iran conflict has already generated an estimated $25 billion in energy‑sector repair costs, according to industry analysts. Damage to key oil refineries, pipelines and the strategic Kharg Island hub is forcing Iran to divert resources toward emergency reconstruction. The...
Goldman Sachs Cuts India Rating, Nifty Target to 25,900
Goldman Sachs downgrades India to Market Weight and lowers NIFTY target to 25,900 from 29,300.
Asian Nations Dumped
Be careful not to confuse changes in valuation and changes in custodial patterns (after Russia's reserves were immobilized) with actual sales https://t.co/zTGz75N9rr
UAE Advances Alternative Trade Route to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
The United Arab Emirates is fast‑tracking a new trade corridor that connects its eastern Khorfakkan port in Sharjah to Saudi Arabia’s Dammam, allowing cargo to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The corridor combines maritime access via the Gulf of Oman...
All Signs Point to an Imminent Recession
Unemployment rate rising Geopolitical conflicts rising Price of oil rising Inflation rising Airport travel collapsing Bitcoin dropping Stocks dropping All business cycles must come to an end, and it usually ends with a recession.
Hormuz Closure Likely Drives 10‑Year Yields Higher
As long as Hormuz stays closed (which is highly likely near term), 10y UST yields will likely keep rising until either Fed or Treasury are forced to inject USD liquidity (into an oil spike & increasingly fracturing global supply chains)...
Oil Price Surge Is Hurting African Economies: Scholars in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa Take Stock
Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil. The disruption has sent fuel costs soaring across Africa, prompting...
Iran Clears Friendly Bulk Carriers Through Hormuz, Trade Resumes
Iran shepherds friendly bulkers through Hormuz ▶️Evidence the Islamic Republic is allowing its own trade through the Strait of Hormuz ▶️Increase in westbound transits after weeks-long lull ▶️Other bulkers that have waited in the Arabian Sea are now on the move towards the...
US-Israeli Iran War Creates Unpriced Massive Supply Shock
The ill-conceived US-Israeli war against Iran will go down in history as one of the great supply shocks. Surprisingly, it hasn’t been fully priced into the market yet. https://t.co/0P6D68qJi7
Nigerian Naira Falls in Parallel Market as FX Inflows Jump 45% to $4.4 Bn
Nigeria’s parallel‑market naira slipped sharply even as foreign‑exchange inflows surged 45% to $4.4 bn in February. The rally in offshore portfolio flows and a sharp rise in central‑bank dollar sales highlight a liquidity boost that is not enough to offset structural...
Venezuela's Oil Output Limited to 300k Bpd by 2026
My view in the @EpochTimes on Pres. Trump's move on Venezuelan oil: “VEN remains a wild card... its output gains will likely be modest [in 2026], ~300,000 barrels/day, due to deep structural damage in the soft & hard infrastructure of VEN’s...
10‑Year
10-year yield was sub 4% at the start of the war. Now it's over 4.4%. Worst month for $TLT since December 2024 https://t.co/OmX97S6MQ1
U.S. Current‑Account Deficit Shrinks to $190.7 B in Q4, Easing Dollar Pressure
The United States reported a $190.7 billion current‑account deficit for the fourth quarter, a sharp reduction driven by stronger foreign investment earnings than outflows. The swing eases strain on the dollar, lifts equity sentiment and fuels debate over the durability of...
Only 130 Ships Crossed Hormuz, All Bound for Asia
Just 130 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the war began—barely a day’s worth of traffic under normal conditions. Nearly all have sailed for Asia, with none heading to Europe or the United States. H/T @_MartinKelly_
Treasury Claims Ample Oil, IEA Taps Strategic Reserves
“The oil market is well-supplied” — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. (… that’s quite a statement after the International Energy Agency had to make the largest ever use of his member’s strategic petroleum reserves…)
Hungary Moves to Halt Gas Supplies to Ukraine, Raising Energy Security Stakes
Hungary announced it will cease gas deliveries to Ukraine, intensifying a regional energy standoff. The move threatens Ukraine's power supply as the country awaits a €90 billion EU loan that Hungary is delaying, while broader sanctions and oil market shifts add...
Japan's Oil Dependence Triggers Treasury Sales, Yield Spike
Japan imports 94% of its crude from the Middle East. 70% moves through the Strait of Hormuz. When oil spikes, Japan sells Treasuries to defend the yen. When Japan sells Treasuries, yields spike. When yields spike, everything breaks. Watch USD/JPY. $TLT $SPY https://t.co/8Vd43Ls5lB
Iran War's End May Trigger Prolonged Global Shock
The Iran War could end today and the shock would still unfold. The only questions are how big and for how long the shock will last.
Spectator, Beneficiary, Player: Russia’s Strategy in the Iran War, From Oil to Drones
Russia is adopting a calibrated stance in the Iran war, offering diplomatic backing and possibly drone assistance to Tehran while steering clear of direct military engagement. Simultaneously, Moscow has dispatched modest oil shipments to Cuba as low‑cost geopolitical signaling. The...
Today's Middle East Turmoil Echoes 1990 Gulf War Recession
Why the current set-up reminds @LizAnnSonders of 1990 (Gulf War + recession): - conflict in Middle East & spike in oil prices - economic & market dislocations - concerns about credit linked to Private Equity Apple🔊https://t.co/2dDJ3eD1p7 Spotify📽️https://t.co/gSpDwqSJC9 https://t.co/hNb5bSJvUv
Houthis Threaten to Control Bab Al-Mandeb Chokepoint
Houthis warning they could get involved... Like the Strait of Hormuz they can control the Bab al-Mandeb, a similar chokepoint controlling access to and from the Red Sea
U.S. Treasury Five‑Year Note Auction Draws Modest Demand, Yield Curve Tensions Rise
The Treasury’s most recent five‑year note auction attracted demand that fell short of recent averages, prompting a modest rise in mid‑term yields. The weaker bid‑to‑cover ratio underscores growing caution among investors amid heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.
Inflation Re‑accelerates; Fed Likely to Raise Rates Again
CPI in February: 2.4%. Cleveland Fed CPI forecast for March: 3.02%. PCE tracking toward 3.14%. Inflation isn't cooling. Inflation is re-accelerating. The Fed hiked into this once. They'll do it again. $TLT $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/2TPM7EbXp5
EPA Issues Temporary E15 Waiver to Ease Gas Prices Amid Iran Conflict
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a five‑day emergency waiver permitting the sale of E15 gasoline across the United States. The move targets gasoline that has risen to almost $4 per gallon as the Iran war tightens oil supplies, and it...
India, US Face Off over E-Commerce Moratorium at WTO Meet
India has asked WTO members to carefully reconsider the e‑commerce duty moratorium, warning of revenue losses and an ambiguous definition of "electronic transmissions." The United States, meanwhile, is pressing for the moratorium to become a permanent, duty‑free regime to protect...
India Holds Bilateral Meetings with EU, Russia, NZ, Others on MC14 Sidelines
India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal conducted bilateral meetings with delegations from the EU, Russia, New Zealand, Peru and Mexico on the sidelines of the WTO’s 14th ministerial conference. The talks reviewed progress on the recently concluded India‑EU free trade agreement and...
Belt-Tightening Mode
The Philippines is entering a belt‑tightening phase as a four‑week‑old Middle East conflict drives global oil prices higher, eroding the peso and inflating consumer costs. A temporary suspension of petroleum excise taxes will cut government revenue by roughly $2.5 billion, potentially...
2‑Year Yield Surpasses Fed Funds, Signals No Cuts
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Trump: Very Substantial Talks Are Going on with Iran
President Donald Trump announced that “very substantial” talks are ongoing with Iran after Tehran sent a convoy of oil tankers as a goodwill gesture. Iran initially offered eight tankers, later adding two, for a total of ten, reportedly under Pakistani...