Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
The Jones Act and the Cost of Shipping Between U.S. Ports (UPDATED)
The Trump administration granted a 60‑day waiver of the Jones Act to ease oil market disruptions amid rising crude prices and supply‑chain strains from the Iran conflict. The Jones Act, a 1920 cabotage law requiring U.S.-flagged, U.S.-built vessels for domestic shipping, adds roughly $200 million‑$300 million in annual costs and has shrunk the eligible fleet to under 100 ships. Studies show that eliminating the act would only shave about $0.015 per gallon off East‑Coast gasoline, delivering modest consumer savings despite higher freight expenses. The law also inflates shipbuilding costs, with U.S. vessels costing $330 million versus $75 million in Asia.
Iran War Cripples Hormuz, Triggers Unprecedented Oil Shock
"The biggest supply disruption in history." The war in Iran has closed the straight of Hormuz, damaged energy infrastructure across the region, and sent shockwaves across the global oil & gas industry. It's so big, it's hard to get your...
Americans Trust Fed to Tame Inflation Amid New Iran Shock
NEW w/ @bencasselman: Throughout a series of economic shocks that pushed up consumer prices in the past five years, Americans maintained faith that the Fed would eventually get inflation under control. The war with Iran presents another shock that is...
Most Grocers Are Passing Tariff Costs to Customers
Tariffs are eroding grocery margins, with 76% of retailers passing at least part of the added cost onto shoppers. While 69% of respondents say tariffs slightly affected profitability, 17% report a significant hit, prompting supply‑chain tweaks and supplier diversification. Retailer...
Context Call: March 2026
In this episode, the host analyzes the immediate oil market impact of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports about 20 million barrels per day—roughly one‑fifth of global supply. He explains that this volume creates a market "hole"...
Chevron Shares Surge on Oil Price Rise and New Dividend Outlook
Chevron stock leapt sharply after crude oil climbed toward $90 per barrel and the energy giant signaled a more generous dividend. The rally helped lift the Dow Jones and underscored a broader rebound in energy equities amid easing Middle‑East tensions.
The Global Economy’s Many Chokepoints
The article warns that the global economy’s drive for efficiency has created fragile single points of failure, exemplified by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one‑fifth of world oil and a quarter of fertilizer. This...
ECB Vice President De Guindos Warns Middle East War Could Spark Systemic Stress in Euro Markets
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that the ongoing Middle East war could trigger systemic stress across financial markets, jeopardising investor sentiment in Europe. He cautioned that while spillovers to the euro‑area have so far been contained, the conflict...
Indian Rupee Hits All‑Time Low of 94.70 per Dollar Amid West Asia Tensions and Oil Surge
The Indian rupee breached 94.70 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its weakest level ever, as Brent crude surged above $107 a barrel and geopolitical risk in West Asia intensified. Foreign portfolio investors dumped roughly $9.5‑$10 bn of Indian equities, while the...
EU and Australia Seal Eight-Year Free-Trade Pact, Unlocking Critical Minerals
The European Union and Australia have signed a comprehensive free‑trade agreement after eight years of talks, eliminating most tariffs on goods and creating a dedicated pathway for critical minerals. The pact is expected to boost Australian exports, tighten supply chains...
Iran Sets $2 Million Toll on Strait of Hormuz Transits, Sparking Shipping Cost Surge
Iran announced a new toll of up to $2 million for commercial ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that threatens to raise shipping costs and tighten global oil supplies. The fee comes amid heightened missile attacks, diplomatic deadlock and...
Average UK Petrol Price Hits 150p for First Time Since 2024; Trump’s Latest Iran Extension Fails to Calm Oil Market...
UK average petrol price reached 150.11 pence per litre (≈£1.50/$1.88), with diesel at 177.68 pence (≈£1.78/$2.22), the highest levels since May 2024. The surge, tied to the Iran‑Israel conflict and rising crude, is inflating motorists’ travel costs and feeding broader inflation worries. At...
Chinese Market Regulator Tells Firms to Focus on Healthy Competition Overseas
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation urged major exporters such as BYD and CATL to adopt healthier, fair‑competition practices as they expand abroad. The regulator highlighted the need to curb “involution‑style” competition that squeezes margins and forces costly overseas moves....
VIX +60 Spikes Signal Rare Market Crises Ahead
I'm quite nervous, and I spent 2 hours writing why you should be too. Consider: VIX has gone +60 twice in the last ~1.5 years. Once on a positioning debacle (Aug '24) and then again on the self-inflicted wound of April '25...
Boao and Qionghai Where Global Dialogue Meets Free Trade
From March 24‑27, Boao’s Dongyu Island Cultural Park hosted the “Boao: Where the World Meets, Qionghai: Where Free Trade Thrives” city exhibition, the first showcase since Hainan Free Trade Port’s island‑wide customs launch. The event highlighted Qionghai’s role as a...
Gold, Silver Prices Crash up to 27% in a Month Amid US-Iran War: Is the Bull Run in Bullion Market...
Gold has slumped 16% and silver 27% over the past month, despite heightened US‑Iran tensions. The drop stems from liquidity squeezes and waning expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have lifted the dollar and real yields. Analysts note the...
Small Businesses Say Tariffs Still Hurting a Year After ‘Liberation Day’
One year after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs took effect, small‑business owners report ongoing pain from $140 billion in duties ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. Refunds for those tariffs remain unpaid, while the administration has substituted new duties under sections...
TMTB Morning Wrap
Anthropic unintentionally revealed a new AI model dubbed “Claude Mythos,” which it describes as a step‑change in capability, while a federal judge blocked the Pentagon’s attempt to label the firm a national‑security threat. OpenAI’s ChatGPT ad pilot generated more than...
'Ripple of Fear' Over Iran War Hits Consumer Confidence
GfK's March Consumer Confidence Barometer shows UK confidence falling to minus 21, the lowest in months. The drop coincides with a 0.4% decline in February retail sales and rising energy costs, as Brent crude jumped 50% to $110 per barrel. Higher...
Stocks Move Inversely With Oil in One-Variable Market
One-variable markets overwhelm classic market timing metrics like sentiment, technicals and valuation which are more useful in “normal” times. A composite of oil and rates (oil is driving rates too) tells you all you need to know about the direction...
Soybean $12 Barrier Demands $100+ Oil, Crop Shortfalls
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil - It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside...
Rewiring the Caribbean for a Digital Future
Caribbean governments are targeting digital infrastructure to diversify economies, with the Inter‑American Development Bank estimating a potential 12% GDP boost from improved connectivity. Mobile internet remains uneven, and analysts say roughly $1 billion is needed to achieve 5G parity by 2030,...
Steepener Trade Finds Relief as Front‑end Yields Rise
The UST 2s5s steepener has been my 'white whale' trade the past year, facing constant pressure from shifting macro drivers. It was first flattened by the AI disruption trade, then crushed by the surge in front-end yields following the outbreak...
EU Warns Iran War Could Trigger European Stagflation
EU sees risk of stagflation shock for Europe from Iran war https://t.co/bWePAfEpHo via @europressos https://t.co/GG5mzV8kVC
2026 Middle East Conflict and Its Ripple Effects on the Global Economy: Potential Supply Chain Chaos Beyond Oil
The Middle East conflict, which intensified in early March 2026, has choked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil flows and limiting the export of refined industrial inputs such as elemental sulphur, agricultural nitrates, and semiconductor‑grade helium. These constraints are generating...
Investors Prioritize Earnings, Not Short‑Term Market Noise
What matters in the short run: -Wars -Oil prices -Tariffs -Interest rates -Sentiment -A million other things What matters in the long run: -Earnings Speculators focus on the short run. Investors play the long game. https://t.co/u1oZkcMGCY
Iran Oil Embargo Threatens US Treasury Basis Trade
We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our...
Inflation Rises Y-O-Y in Pahang, Terengganu Across Housing, Utilities, and Essentials in February 2026
Malaysia's Department of Statistics reported that Pahang's consumer price index rose to 2.1% year‑on‑year in February 2026, while Terengganu's inflation climbed to 1.6% year‑on‑year in January 2026. Both states saw price pressures in housing, utilities, and self‑care services, with Pahang...
Iran Hit Trump's Credibility, D
B of A: “.. If Trump’s credibility is “structurally hit by Iran, then ability to jaw-jaw Wall St & force [foreign direct investment] inflows falls ..” [Hartnett] https://t.co/QF657J7op6
EU Faces Trade Turbulence From US and China
From Liberation to other trade threats is the US with the EU. Now here comes China to the EU. Trade upheaval? Maritime? What lies ahead?
Deal or No Deal? Conflict Drives Oil Volatility and UK Inflation
In this episode, Charlene Young and Tom Sieber dissect how the ongoing Iran conflict is fueling oil price volatility and feeding into UK inflation pressures, while also reviewing the latest UK CPI data and government energy support plans. They highlight...
ECB Warns June Rate Hike if War Continues
ECB’s Wunsch says rate hike likely if war isn’t over by June https://t.co/DfO5yOLNdf via @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/rkEFK0fHSo
Iran War Scenarios Shape New Fed Policy Outlook
Three scenarios for the Iran war and what they mean for Fed policy under new leadership. Plus eight key takeaways from the latest FOMC meeting. 🟢 Open https://t.co/Tx6udRxjvm
EU–US Turnberry Trade Deal Threatens Imports: CEOs Face Rising Costs
The European Parliament approved four conditional clauses—suspension, sunrise, sunset, and safeguards—within the Turnberry trade deal, giving the EU power to pause or revoke US tariff benefits if Washington fails to meet its commitments. The clauses could instantly raise tariffs on...
Dollar and Oil Hold Steady After Trump’s Iran Pledge
The Dollar and Oil are Bid: The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days...
Post‑WWII Worker Power Erased by 1979 Neoliberalism
This is one of my favourite charts. It shows how the economy emerged from WW2 with a lot more worker power.. and then post-1979 neoliberalism crushed it. sorry folks, we aint gonna get another wage-price spiral https://t.co/KydXL5zIer
As West Asia Makes up 1/5th of India’s Agricultural Exports, Govt Monitoring Closely, Says Jitin Prasada
India’s agricultural exports to West Asia, encompassing the GCC and neighboring countries, reached $10.68 billion in FY 2024‑25, representing 20.5% of total agri shipments. Processed‑food shipments to the Gulf grew 18% year‑on‑year, while exports to the EU rose 49.5% over the...
Brent Surpasses $110 as Hormuz Closure Cuts 15M Barrels Daily
Gm, oil watchers Brent crude back above $110 this morning because—and stop me if you’ve heard this one—the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world oil market is losing 15 million barrels every day that remains true https://t.co/jg4V9IlWhv
The New Geography of Money: How Cross-Border Payments Are Being Reinvented
Cross‑border payments are undergoing a fundamental shift as fintech innovators replace legacy banking corridors with real‑time, low‑cost networks. New infrastructure—blockchain ledgers, API‑driven platforms, and regulated e‑money licences—cuts settlement times from days to seconds. Traditional banks are partnering with or acquiring...
The Macro Butler World Economic Summit 2026 Interest Survey
The Macro Butler is proposing a World Economic Summit for 2026, slated for December, to unite investors, macro strategists, and capital managers. After 28 years of navigating macro turbulence, the team seeks to create a signal‑focused forum that avoids noise...
Sri Lanka Apparel Sector Exports Fall on Global Demand Decline
Sri Lanka’s apparel exports slipped 6.91% in January‑February 2026, with the EU market leading the decline at 19.48%. Shipments to the US and UK fell more modestly, while regional peers such as Bangladesh experienced a 25.25% drop in EU shipments....
Russia Survived without SWIFT, but that Doesn’t Mean It Won
Russia’s banks were cut off from the SWIFT network in 2022, prompting the country to rely on its domestic messaging system, SPFS. While SPFS kept internal payments flowing and softened the immediate shock, it did not replicate SWIFT’s global reach,...
Emerging Markets Optimism Hits Record High, but Geopolitical Risks Temper Outlook
HSBC’s latest Emerging Markets Sentiment Survey shows optimism reaching a record high, with 68% of investors bullish on EM assets over the next three months, up from 63% previously. The survey recorded zero bearish responses, marking the 14th consecutive reading...
USD/JPY Near 160 as Risk Appetite Remains Cautious
Ahead of the weekend, amid the fog of war, risk appetites are restrained. Escalation to de-escalate? Is today the day the greenback pushes above $JPY160? PBOC sets $USD fix higher on weekly basis for the 1st time in...
EU Customs Overhaul Targets Fashion Parcel Surge
The European Union is revamping its customs code to tighten control over the flood of low‑cost fashion parcels entering the bloc. Under the new rules, online marketplaces such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress will be liable for customs duties, product...
The Thai Baht Remains Under Pressure
Thailand’s baht is under renewed pressure as rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar converge. Tensions in the Middle East keep crude near $100‑$120 per barrel, inflating Thailand’s energy import bill and weakening the currency. Meanwhile, the two‑year U.S....
The Wrap: Trump, Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The Iran war with the United States and Israel has triggered a sharp risk‑off shift, prompting private‑credit managers such as Ares and Apollo to cap redemptions as investor cash‑out requests surge. Direct‑lending defaults are projected to climb from 5.6% to...
Ray Dalio Urges Investors to Craft a Back‑tested Game Plan Amid Market Turbulence
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio posted on X urging investors to develop a well‑tested, back‑tested game plan to steer through inflation fears, geopolitical tension and sharp market swings. He argues that a disciplined strategy reduces stress and improves decision‑making, offering a...
UK Faces Steeper Inflation and Slower Growth Than Eurozone
The Effects of Higher Energy Prices CfM/NIESR survey: UK would experience greater negative effects than Euro Area: higher inflation & lower growth due to macro backdrop, fiscal/monetary policy responses & uncertainty over the conflict’s duration as reasons https://t.co/HG4SdveXNQ