Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Houthis in Yemen Announce Entry Into the Conflict if Any Alliance Joins the US and Israel
The Yemen‑based Houthis warned they will join Iran against any coalition that aligns the United States and Israel, threatening to block the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia has hinted it may intervene, raising the prospect of a direct Houthi‑Saudi confrontation. A blockade would force oil tankers to detour through the Suez Canal, lengthening voyages and tightening global supplies. Consequently, WTI crude futures have surged past $100 a barrel as markets price in heightened geopolitical risk.
9 ‘Omniscaling’ Companies Are Reshaping the Global Economy
McKinsey identifies nine "omniscalers"—Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Huawei, Meta, Microsoft, Samsung, and Tesla—that rank among the world’s top 30 spenders on R&D and capital expenditures and generate revenue in at least three high‑growth arenas. By 2025 these firms are active...
India, US Review Next Steps in Trade Pact Talks
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met on the sidelines of the WTO’s 14th ministerial in Yaounde to review progress on a bilateral trade agreement announced in February. The parties reaffirmed a March signing target...
Rising Treasury Yields Are Spooking Investors: Should Buy-and-Hold Investors Care?
The 10‑Year Treasury yield, which peaked above 5% in late 2023, has rebounded to roughly 4.4% after a dip to 3.8% in August 2024, reflecting lingering inflation and geopolitical risks. The Federal Reserve has held rates steady this year, but...
France to Spend €70M on Fuel Subsidies for Farmers, Trucks and Fishermen in April
France will spend €70 million (about $76 million) on fuel subsidies for farmers, small logistics firms and fishermen throughout April. The plan suspends non‑road diesel excise taxes for farmers, costing roughly €14 million, and provides a €0.20‑per‑liter rebate for trucks and fishing vessels,...
WTI Crude Oil Touches $100 per Barrel. Eyes on Steel as Iran Vows Revenge
WTI crude settled at $99.64, briefly topping $100 per barrel for the first time since early May, as traders price a longer‑term Middle East conflict into oil markets. The rally follows a U.S.–Israeli strike on an Iranian steel facility, prompting...
Analysis: What Might Trip up Kevin Warsh and His Agenda as Fed Chair
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor backed by President Trump, is poised for a contentious nomination as Federal Reserve chair. He advocates rapid rate cuts despite $100‑a‑barrel oil prices and rising inflation forecasts, while also promising to slash the Fed’s...
Epic Fury Oil Shock: Repositioning Your Portfolio for War
Operation Epic Fury, the US‑Israeli offensive against Iran, has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, choking roughly 20% of global crude oil flow and a host of other critical commodities. The closure also traps 22% of urea and ammonia, 24%...
Gold Poised to Shine as Markets Dip
When the S&P 500 falls ~31% on average, Gold has historically gained +6.5%. And right now? • S&P 500 is down ~5–6% in recent weeks • Nasdaq in correction territory • Oil > $100 and geopolitical risk rising This is exactly the type of...
Trump’s Tariffs Were Symbolic, Global Trade Endured
Factful Friday is up! After a book-writing hiatus, it's back (and based on snippets from my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade). 👉Why didn’t Donald Trump’s tariffs melt down the world trade system? This Factful Friday, based on snippets from my...
How Geopolitics and AI Are Influencing Today’s Financial Markets
Jeremy Siegel, emeritus professor at Wharton and senior economist at WisdomTree, says the ongoing Iran conflict, Federal Reserve policy, and rapid AI adoption are reshaping market dynamics. He warns that heightened geopolitical risk is pressuring equity valuations while the Fed’s...
Carnival Slashes Profit Outlook as Iran War Sends Fuel Costs Soaring
Carnival Corp lowered its full‑year adjusted earnings per share outlook to $2.21, down from a prior range up to $2.48, as surging fuel costs strain margins. The increase in fuel expenses, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and a lack...
How a Conflict Can Highlight Long-Term Investment Opportunities
U.S. stocks slipped further on Friday after President Donald Trump announced a pause to the planned attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure, pushing the S&P 500 down 5.4% year‑to‑date. Analysts warn the conflict could linger, creating recurring market volatility through the midterm...
High Inflation Dem
If CPI were to trend up to 5% over the next year in the unlikely event that rbob futures kept rolling up to the current spot price...what is the 10 year yield and what has to happen to SPX earnings...
Global Energy Shortage Sparks Rationing, Looming Lockdown‑Like Shift
Thoughts? We discuss the emerging global energy crisis and fuel rationing measures being implemented worldwide. Countries like Slovenia and South Korea are implementing fuel rationing systems, while others are grounding flights and pushing work-from-home mandates to conserve energy. We explore...
Testing the Japan-South Korea-US Techno-Alliance
The Japan‑South Korea‑US trilateral is reshaping from a broad security pact into a pragmatic techno‑alliance focused on AI, quantum computing, critical minerals and next‑generation nuclear energy. At the recent Trans‑Pacific Dialogue, leaders highlighted coordinated supply‑chain initiatives and pledged massive U.S....
How a US Truck Components Maker Is Handling Tariffs
U.S. truck‑components maker TCCI is navigating a fragmented tariff regime after the Supreme Court struck down some Trump‑era duties, but Section 232 tariffs on heavy‑duty parts remain. The company invested $45 million in a Clean Energy Innovation Hub to produce electric compressors...
30 Days of West Asia Conflict: India Ups LPG Output, Focuses on PNG as Imports Concerns Persist
India, the world’s second‑largest LPG importer, boosted domestic LPG production amid the West Asia conflict that disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Refinery output was increased by 40% to a record 50,000 tonnes per day, cutting daily import...
Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
The University of Michigan’s final March consumer sentiment index slipped to 53.3, down from the preliminary 55.5 reading. Expectations fell 4.9 points from February, outpacing the 2‑point dip in current conditions caused by higher gasoline prices. Analysts attribute the broader...
Deterrence in a Two-Peer World Requires Prudence
The United States must reshape its nuclear strategy as China accelerates toward a 1,000‑warhead force by 2030 and Russia continues modernizing its arsenal, while the New START treaty has lapsed. Washington’s current deployment of 1,550 warheads and 700 delivery systems...
Will QatarEnergy's LNG Fiasco Derail Goldman's Prewar View Of A Mega LNG Wave
QatarEnergy announced that an Iranian attack on its Ras Laffan facility has knocked out roughly 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take three to five years. The outage translates to about $20 billion in lost annual...
Why US Strategic Nuclear Forces Must Expand After New START
With the New START treaty now expired, U.S. defense planners argue the strategic nuclear force must grow to roughly 2,400 operationally deployed warheads and become more flexible to influence adversary decision‑making at every crisis stage. The brief cites Russia’s heightened...
Why the Reduction in SED
Since the West Asia conflict began, Brent crude has surged from roughly $73 to $109 per barrel, a 49% increase. In response, India’s Centre trimmed the special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel by ₹10 per litre (about $0.12),...
Hormuz Ship Traffic Stays Frozen Despite Move to Start Fees
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually halted four weeks into the Iran‑Israel conflict, with only six vessels recorded on March 26 versus the pre‑war average of nearly 60 daily transits in 2025. Iran announced a toll system demanding...
The Eastern Mediterranean Won’t Replace Russian or Gulf Gas—But It Can Be Europe’s Energy Shock Absorber
Europe has cut Russian gas imports by 90% since 2021 and aims to end them by November 2027. To replace the lost volume, the continent now relies on LNG, exposing it to global shipping chokepoints. The Eastern Mediterranean basin, with...
Rising Oil and Rates Amplify Stock Market Volatility
Oil & Interest rates, collectively, are single-handedly driving the equity market. The longer prices remain high, the flatter the slope will be WRT stocks. That means, smaller changes in oil/rates will have larger impacts on stocks. One reason this is...
Euro‑zone Sees Biggest Price Surge Since 2022
Biggest euro-zone price jump since 2022 seen in first G-20 data https://t.co/kl1LZfnzhJ via @CraigStirling https://t.co/UT73y7yUEV
ECB Schnabel: There Is No Need to Rush Into Action
European Central Bank Vice President Isabel Schnabel warned that Europe is confronting a massive energy price shock but cautioned against hasty policy moves. She emphasized that the ECB has sufficient time to assess incoming data before deciding on any rate...
Liquidity Crunch, Not Recession, Will Trigger Next Market Crash
Hot take: the next drawdown won’t be “a recession.” It’ll be a liquidity accident. Dollar firm. FX carry crowded. Credit tightens quietly. Then everyone acts shocked. Markets don’t blow up from headlines. They blow up from plumbing. https://t.co/oS1ebUhkzJ
France Announces Limited Aid to Mitigate Iran War Economic Fallout
France unveils limited aid to offset Iran war impact on the economy https://t.co/CZX6WnRGfE via @WHorobin https://t.co/RaHs19PKsN
Global Inflation Rates Set to Shift Dramatically Soon
This chart is going to look at lot different a month from now. Global Inflation Rates... https://t.co/RrBw1EeUo3
Markets Misjudge Risks: War Threats Underestimated, Private Credit Overrated
In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit
US Soybean Exports to China Plunge to 19‑Year Low
🇺🇸🇨🇳At the White House on Friday, Trump said: “American soybeans are now being shipped to China in record amounts.” Unless something unexpectedly changes, 2025/26 U.S. soybean exports to China are on track to be: ▪️a 19-year low ▪️down 58% from the five-year average...
Strait Reopening Prevents Catastrophic Fallout
"but the catastrophic consequences of the Strait remaining closed won't happen if the Strait reopens" https://t.co/iULTzt6N2d
India's Export Bans Could Sway Global Rice, Sugar Prices
Decent odds we see some export bans for key commodities where India can move global prices (eg rice, sugar)
7% Mortgage Rates Trap Sellers in Negative Real Yield
Mortgage interest rates are hitting 7 percent and sellers are locked into COVID era mortgages that are in negative real interest rate territory. More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/jUHCvyVvDx
Erdoğan Blames Netanyahu's Israel for Regional Aggression
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan fingered Netanyahu's gov't and Israel for “not only targeting Iran”, but also its “step by step implementation of plans to occupy Lebanon”, and its continuing “aggressive violations” of Syria’s sovereignty. https://t.co/M9KIHTZopA
Iran War Sparks Global Stagflation, EM Rate Hike Pressure
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
Brace Yourself: Global Macro Markets Turning Dicey
Grab you lunch pails and get your hard hats on.... Global Macro gettin DICEY @fejau_inc @qthomp https://t.co/c1n3INbRN3
CERAWeek Recap: Iran Conflict Fuels Energy Crisis
Quite a week to be @CERAWeek with Iran war and escalating energy crisis. And no one better to debrief with than the incomparable @JavierBlas. Check out my podcast with him recapping #CERAWeek and latest on Iran. https://t.co/OsJts3VLUQ
IEA Urges EU to Decouple Gas From Electricity Pricing
The EU should sever the link between gas and electricity costs to limit the fallout from the Iran war, the IEA has suggested 🇪🇺⚠️ In the European marginal pricing system, gas is the fuel that effectively sets the power price https://t.co/rvKWzsWwey
UN Managed Iraq Oil Funds: 25% Reparations, 3% Fees
Remember this? After Kuwait's liberation, Iraq's oil revenues were placed in a UN escrow account, with the UN managing sales and purchases. Iraq paid about 30%—later reduced to 25% after 2000—for war reparations, while the UN kept 3% for administration...
U.S. Debt Service Surpasses Defense, Threatening Great Power Status
Ferguson’s Law, proposed by Sir Niall Ferguson: when a great power spends more on debt service than on defense, it risks losing its status as a great power. The U.S. crossed that line. Net interest at ~3.1% of GDP exceeds defense at ~3.0%. DEBT...
US Assures Allies: No Immediate Iran Invasion Plans
Not even a slight bounce on this headline. *US SIGNALS TO ALLIES NO IMMEDIATE PLANS FOR IRAN INVASION
IMF and Leaders Discuss Middle East Conflict’s Energy Impact
Pleased to meet with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (@KGeorgieva) to discuss the implications of the Middle East conflict for energy markets & economies around the world We agreed to continue to keep in close contact as we support governments in...
Yen Poised for 30‑year Breakout as Dollar Stalls
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
2026 Oil Spike Likely Demand‑Killer, Not Bull Market
Oil may spike in 2026—but that’s not a new bull market. In a debt-heavy, fragile system, high prices don’t fuel growth—they crush it. This looks more like a spike that kills demand than a cycle that sustains it. LINK👇 https://t.co/kmq5wrQnHw #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #OilMarkets
USD/JPY Breaches 160, Eyes Potential 162 Breakout
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an...
Weekly Live Show Launches: Oil, Gold, Yields Explored
I'm going to start doing a weekly livestream on Saturday mornings at 9 am (ET). Tomorrow will kick things off with a discussion of: (i) impact of an Iran embargo on oil prices; (ii) what's going on with gold and...
Cold War with China Underm
This is important 👇 1. USA is in Cold War with China 2. Europe is economically dependent on China. Something has to change because 1+2 is incompatible with a partnership, which is why the partnership is deteriorating