Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Middle East War Triggers Coal Boost in Japan, EU Gas‑Storage Push, and Oil Price Dip
Japan announced a temporary lift of coal‑plant operating caps, the EU urged member states to refill gas storage ahead of winter, and the United States paused attacks on Iranian energy sites, causing Brent to slip to $107.11 a barrel. The moves reflect immediate supply shocks and a scramble for energy security across three continents.
U.S. Deepens Iran War with Troop Moves, Land Mine Use and $200 Billion Funding Fight
The Trump administration has extended a pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, while preparing to send thousands of troops and reportedly using land mines for the first time in decades. Lawmakers are locked in a heated debate over a...
Tehran’s “Toll Booth” In Hormuz Cuts Western Buyers Out of Fertilizer Supply Chain
Iran has instituted a formal toll and vetting regime in the Strait of Hormuz, charging up to $2 million per vessel and effectively barring Western-bound fertilizer cargoes. The move has driven benchmark urea prices up 68% to $681 per metric ton...
The War That Funded A Merger
The episode investigates the financing of Paramount Pictures' $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, revealing that the publicly disclosed investors – Larry Ellison’s trust ($47 billion) and Redbird Capital ($250 million) – fall far short of the total price. The host uncovers...
Trump Pitches China Trade ‘Win’ to US Farmers Ahead of Xi Meeting, Midterms
President Donald Trump told a crowd of farmers that recent talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping have secured a $40 billion increase in U.S. soybean shipments to China. He framed the outcome as a personal win, saying he convinced Xi to...
Wall Street Reels as Iran War Shatters Its Portfolio Defenses
The Iran‑Israel conflict has triggered a broad market sell‑off, pushing the Nasdaq 100 down 1.9% and extending the S&P 500’s five‑week losing streak, its longest since 2022. Bond markets reacted sharply, with 30‑year Treasury yields climbing toward 5% and short‑term TIPS...
Global Energy Crisis Looms as AI Bubble Bursts
Another big client post this weekend: Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession 💫The AI Bubble Is Bursting 💫Liquidity Is Leaving. Semis Are Done Going Up 💫Higher Oil, Dollar & Yields As Tech Wrecking Ball 💫Tail Risk Is Still Rising 💫Countdown To A Global Energy...
The Cushion Is Gone and the Oil Market Is Now Exposed
The global oil market absorbed the shock of the largest supply disruption in history – the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – thanks to pre‑war inventory cushions. For roughly four weeks, prices remained muted as surplus stocks and strategic...
Agriculture Prices Break 20-Year Barrier, Set to Surge
It’s official. Agricultural commodities have broken through a nearly 20-year resistance level. I expect this move to accelerate from here. When energy moves, agriculture tends to follow — it’s a natural lag in the macro setup. Be mindful of the social and political consequences...
Shipping at Risk in the Strait of Hormuz
The ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis is costing the global shipping sector roughly €340 million a day – about $371 million in U.S. dollars – as vessels reroute or wait for safer passages. The surge in fuel expenses highlights the industry’s acute...
US Hopes for Iran Meetings 'This Week': Envoy Witkoff
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told a Miami business forum that Iran is expected to meet Washington this week, citing a 15‑point peace plan on the table. President Donald Trump echoed the optimism, claiming Tehran wants a deal and pointing...
Thailand Mulls Windfall Tax on Oil Refineries
Thailand’s Fiscal Policy Office is evaluating a windfall tax on oil refineries, a move prompted by the country’s heavy reliance on imported crude – about 92% of its supply. The proposed levy could be calculated either by applying a rate...
The Impact of the Iran War on the Asia-Pacific Region
In this episode, RAINN analyst Chase Blazik explains how the Iran war is reshaping security and energy dynamics across the Asia‑Pacific. He details the recent Washington summit between Japan’s Prime Minister Takeichi and President Trump, highlighting Japan’s delicate balancing act...
Weighing Recession Probabilities
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts discuss the rising probability of a U.S. recession amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, higher oil prices, and tightening financial conditions. Using a random‑forest model that aggregates dozens of leading indicators—especially labor market...
Morningstar DBRS Confirms the Kingdom of Denmark at AAA, Stable Trend
Morningstar DBRS reaffirmed Denmark’s long‑term sovereign rating at AAA with a stable trend, while its short‑term rating remains at R‑1 (high). The Danish economy posted 2.9% real GDP growth in 2025, propelled by robust pharmaceutical exports and rising private consumption....
Consumer Confidence Continues to Drop as Gas Prices Rise
U.S. consumer confidence slipped 6% in March, reaching its lowest level since December, as gasoline prices rose to an average $3.98 per gallon—a full dollar increase from the prior month. The University of Michigan’s survey shows short‑run economic outlook plunging...
Bob Moriarty: WW3, Shortages & Markets
Bob Moriarty’s recent commentary warns that the specter of World War III is intensifying geopolitical risk, which could cascade into global supply‑chain shortages and heightened market turbulence. He argues that escalating tensions may disrupt energy and commodity flows, prompting sharp price...
European Shares Slip as Inflation Fears and Slower Growth Outlook Loom
European equity indices drifted lower amid rising inflation expectations and a dimmer growth outlook, echoing broader market anxiety sparked by the West Asia conflict and higher oil prices. Analysts warn the trend could tighten U.S. monetary policy and dent consumer...
Traders Cash $40‑$50 Million on Pre‑Announcement Iran Pause Bet
Around 7:00 a.m. ET on Monday, traders moved roughly 7,200 oil futures and 6,000 S&P futures contracts just before President Trump posted about a pause to Iran attacks. The timing and size of the trades generated an estimated $40‑$50 million profit, prompting...
Trump to Head Saudi‑Backed Investment Summit in Miami Beach as Iran War Rages
Former President Donald Trump is set to headline a Saudi‑backed investment summit in Miami Beach, drawing sovereign‑wealth officials and billionaire financiers. The event comes as the Iran‑Israel war pushes oil above $110 a barrel and rattles equity markets, raising stakes...
Tariff Revenue Too Small to Fund Stimulus Checks
Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American. The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit. Source: Peterson Institute
Market Slashes Feb Rate‑cut Odds; Fed Put Dead
The market was pricing a 100% chance of rate cuts in February. That number is now 16%. The Fed put is dead.
EU Customs Union Overhaul Targets €90 Bn Modernisation, Boosts Trade Efficiency
EU finance minister Makis Keravnos and Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic announced a historic customs code reform worth €90 bn, creating a single data hub and new authority in Lille. The move seeks to streamline cross‑border trade, cut compliance costs and protect the single...
Japan Finance Minister Warns of Decisive Action as Yen Nears 160 per Dollar
Japan's finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, warned Friday that authorities will respond firmly and take decisive action to stop the yen's slide toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark. The warning came as the currency fell to about 159.80 per dollar in New York,...
Afreximbank Pushes Industrialisation as Path to Economic Sovereignty
The African Export‑Import Bank will make industrialisation the centerpiece of its 33rd Annual Meetings in El Alamein, Egypt, from June 21‑24. The gathering will convene heads of state, policymakers, financiers and private‑sector leaders to design projects that shift Africa’s trade model from...
7‑Year Treasury Auction Draws Weak Demand, Yield Peaks at 4.26%
The U.S. Treasury sold $44 bn of seven‑year notes on Thursday, posting a high yield of 4.255% and a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.43, the lowest in ten auctions. The weak demand follows similarly tepid interest in recent two‑year and five‑year auctions,...
Iran War Triggers Global Fertilizer Shortage, Pushes Food Prices Higher
The Iran‑Israel conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, curtailing roughly a third of global fertilizer shipments and sending U.S. fertilizer prices up 40% since the fall. The squeeze is already raising production costs for farmers and is expected to...
Iran's $2M Ship Fee Fuels Export Surge Amid US Presence
Iran is processing ships at the Imam Khomeini port, located in Khuzestan at the northernmost extreme of the Gulf, near Kharg Island. So, for ships seeking passage approval from Iran, they have to sail all the way to the northern end...
Fertilizer Shortage Will Drive Food Prices up 60‑100%
Food cost will increase 60-100% because of the fertilizer crisis Right now it’s a cost problem. Within weeks, it becomes a supply problem. Within months, it becomes a yield problem. https://t.co/2wsjnUcnaH #EnergyCrisis #FoodSecurity #Fertilizer #Inflation #Geopolitics
Trump Tariffs Are Strangling US‑China Trade, Data Shows
WSJ: How Trump’s Tariffs Are Choking U.S.-China Trade (with AMAZING charts) by @hannahmiao_ & @CloudberryRoque 🤓 👉🏻 https://t.co/vNeIUWWiqm https://t.co/GB3I7d35ly
Gulf Aluminum Plants Supply 9% Globally, Tightening Markets
The facilities in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman account for roughly 9% of global primary aluminum. This is going to tighten supply for many key global industries like construction, vehicles, and aerospace. #aluminum #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/qO2ERCGHMN
19 Data Dogs Await FOMC
Also 19 data dogs at the FOMC table waiting for the Econ briefing to begin
China's Clean Tech Probe Aims to Signal US
After years of tariffs on Chinese clean technology, experts say Beijing’s trade investigation is meant to send a signal to the US https://t.co/IzynmFMKWs
Sanctions Keep Russia's War Windfall in Check
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective https://t.co/YgLaalkQxU As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited. https://t.co/MWwrDIs9pR
Rising Inflation Threatens Balanced Portfolios Like 2022
Fears of re-accelerating inflation obliterating balanced portfolios, just like they did in 2022. https://t.co/S7laKGwQLC https://t.co/oLsV6wsuXf
Nasdaq Slides Into Correction Amid Rate Hikes, Geopolitics
Nasdaq officially in correction territory as rates push higher and geopolitical tensions keep markets on edge. We break down what’s driving the volatility, key levels to watch, and how to navigate this swing trading environment in this week's episode $SPY $QQQ $IEF...
US Blockade Erodes Cuba’s Economy, Chart Shows
Cuba is being worn down by the relentless US blockade, shown by this chart on the Economist. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/WP5T7dRmAp
2026 Rate Hikes T
.@grok what do you think the answer is for possible rate hikes in 2026, as opposed to the three cuts? 1. Wars 2. Tariffs 3. Stopping illegal, and dirt cheap, immigration
Marked‑to‑
FWIW - This column I wrote for @FT back in 2022 on the consequences of a marked-to-market economy seems even more relevant today given how top-heavy it has become. https://t.co/5a53albeSu
Gulf Nations Question US Security Guarantees Amid Iran Conflict
"Gulf countries are increasingly frustrated with the US over the Iran war, privately questioning American security guarantees and expressing concern about the Trump administration’s apparent lack of strategy..." https://t.co/dmcHthBwRz
2026 Could Mirror 1970s Oil Shock, Stocks Crash
Per @grok If 2026 plays out like the 1970s oil shock (Nixon Pres): Stocks: S&P crashes another 40%+ (total ~45-50% drawdown) Oil: $150–$200+/bbl as Hormuz pain drags Rates: Fed funds rips to double digits (teens possible)
Iran War Threatens Global Fertilizer Supply, Endangers Food Security
The Iran war has crippled Middle East production/shipments of fertilitizer and upstream inputs, threatening global food supplies. That could be bad for rich countries - and disastrous for poor ones. https://t.co/YLuPd0NrWM https://t.co/FPLfLjAOYy
Crude Prices Edge Higher Amid Hormuz Stalemate
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices rose modestly on the week after recovering from a Trump jawbone-driven rout on Monday given no real resolution to the Hormuz stoppage, and term structure keeps getting tighter. Summary below, link to...
China Launches Probes Into US Section 301 Investigations
Beijing’s commerce ministry said on Friday it was initiating two probes of its own looking into the US Section 301 investigations into China. by @leahyjoseph, Tina Hu & @AsiaLens https://t.co/LI97xXyn8V
Western Markets Rise, Middle East Falls, Gold Steadies at $4100/Oz
How the west was won, the MidEast was lost & $4100/oz gold held https://t.co/VJQ1W1pdz5 #forex #XAUUSD $GLD
Chemicals Firms Hike Prices Amid War-Driven Inflation Shock
"Chemicals companies on the front lines of the inflationary shock are aggressively raising prices on disruptions from the four-week-old war... The price increases are already kicking off a chain reaction." https://t.co/E16JDzEqwM https://t.co/Ttbur0ru2f
US China Trade Gap Narrows, Overall Deficit Hits Record
"The U.S. goods trade deficit with China shrank 32% to $202 billion last year..., the narrowest since 2005. Yet the overall U.S. goods trade deficit grew 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion because U.S. importers shifted rapidly to other markets"...
Premium Users Get March Macro Week Review
Premium Users - Macro Week in Review/Preview March 27, 2026, on the blog and here https://t.co/usEprcsIdN
US Envoy Announces Upcoming Iran‑US Talks
US special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff says that Iran and US will hold talks soon https://t.co/TVVUeaYqaZ
Bank Flows Explain $3 Trillion China Surplus‑Reserve Gap
As I mentioned on Wednesday, there is a $3 trillion gap between China's accumulated current account surplus since the pandemic and China's unchanged reserves (and a corresponding gap in visible flows into the US) Bank flows make up most of the...