Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
India Says Iran War Could Hit Growth, Widen Fiscal Deficit
India’s government warned that the ongoing war in Iran could dampen economic growth and widen the fiscal deficit as energy and shipping disruptions ripple through multiple sectors. The March economic review highlighted higher input costs and supply constraints as near‑term downside risks, but did not provide specific growth projections. The warning underscores the vulnerability of India’s import‑dependent economy to geopolitical shocks. Policymakers may need to adjust fiscal and monetary tools to mitigate the impact.
Countries Sidestep WTO Deadlock to Implement E-Commerce Deal
Sixty‑six WTO members representing roughly 70% of global trade have agreed to implement the Joint Statement Initiative on e‑commerce through their own domestic legislation, sidestepping the need for full WTO consensus. India continues to block the plurilateral deal, arguing it...
Africa Can Leverage Remittances for Growth Through Fintech
In 2024, formal remittances to Sub‑Saharan Africa reached about $100 billion, with Nigeria alone receiving roughly $21 billion—around 10 % of its GDP. Policymakers see the challenge of turning these consumption‑driven inflows into savings and investment, a task that hinges on scaling Africa’s...
Why Spain Is Weathering Europe’s Energy Crunch Better Than Most
Spain’s electricity market is insulated from the current European energy crunch thanks to a renewable‑heavy mix—almost 60% of its power comes from solar, wind and nuclear—keeping the average price at about €14/MWh (≈$15) versus over €100/MWh (≈$107) in Italy, Germany...
Consumer Sentiment Hits Dec‑2025 Low Amid Gas, Market Turmoil
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu ”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party. Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating...
RBI Caps Banks' USD Exposure at $100 Million
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
The War Poses Bigger Questions for Beijing Than Oil
The ongoing conflict, likely the Russia‑Ukraine war, forces Beijing to reassess its strategic priorities beyond the immediate impact on oil supplies. While China’s partnership with Tehran remains limited by sanctions and diplomatic risk, the war highlights broader concerns about energy...
Short‑term Yields Drop, Long‑term Rise; Gold Steadies
What was equally intriguing in Friday’s trading was the unhinging of the short end of the curve from the long end. The 2-yr yield fell by 7.4 bps to 3.91% while that of the benchmark 10-yr rose by 1.6 bps to...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review): 30th March – 3rd April 2026
The week ahead is dominated by central‑bank minutes and key data releases that could reshape monetary policy trajectories. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a hawkish tone after a 25‑basis‑point hike to 4.10%, while the Eurozone’s CPI flash jumps...
US/EU Push Permanent E‑commerce Exemption, Threatening Developing Nations
WTO e‑commerce moratorium may lapse: US/EU seek permanent exemption; some developing states oppose losing tariff revenue. Risk: higher digital trade costs, fragmentation. Trade: overweight big tech. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Houthis Threaten Bab Al-Mandeb, Risking Saudi Pipeline Bypass
The Houthis of Yemen have entered the war, claiming the launch of a ballistic missile against Israel. The more important aspect of their involvement is whether they try to disrupt traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, effectively jeopardising Saudi efforts...
Trump's Never-Ending War
HistoryLegends’ YouTube analysis outlines three Pentagon amphibious options against Iran: seizing Kharg Island, which is high‑risk and low‑reward; capturing Qeshm Island to dominate the Strait of Hormuz but risking mission creep; and landing in Chabahar Bay, where the U.S. holds...
Mining Metal Supply Crisis Needs More Than Prices
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
U.S.–Indonesia Trade Deal Sparks Outcry Over Mining Expansion and Fossil‑Fuel Extraction
Environmental activists have condemned the U.S.–Indonesia trade agreement signed on Feb. 19, saying it paves the way for expanded mining and fossil‑fuel extraction in Indonesia. The deal, valued at $33 billion, includes provisions that could loosen export bans on raw minerals and...
India's Forex Reserves Slip Below $700bn as Gold Loss Triggers $11.4bn Drop
India's foreign exchange reserves fell $11.4 bn to $698 bn in the week ended March 20, driven by a $13.5 bn plunge in gold holdings as global prices slipped 10%. The decline pushed the rupee to fresh record lows and raised questions about the...
Indonesia’s ‘Perfect Storm’: Downgrade Risks, US Trade Tensions and Iran War Threaten Growth
Indonesia’s growth outlook is being squeezed by three simultaneous shocks – looming sovereign‑rating downgrades, renewed US trade friction and a fuel crisis sparked by the Iran war. Analysts warn the combined impact could stall the country’s 8% growth target and...
UK Gilt Yields Spike Above 5% as Middle East War Drives Worst Sell‑off Since 2008
British government bonds have taken the hardest hit in the global bond market rout, with 10‑year gilt yields breaching 5% for the first time since the 2008 crisis. The surge follows heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑Israel war and a...
Helium Shortage Triggers $930 M Warning for IonQ, Rigetti and D‑Wave Stocks
A market alert warning of a $930 million hit to the quantum‑computing sector has pushed IonQ, Rigetti and D‑Wave shares down. The warning stems from a helium supply crunch caused by the Iran‑U.S. conflict, which threatens the low‑temperature environments needed for...
Asset Supply Surges, Credit Stagnates Amid Wage Stagnation
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
The Dire Straits: Liquidity Tide Goes Out
The analysts forecast the S&P 500 could slip to around 5,500 within the next 12 months, implying a 20‑25% correction. A deeper, systemic issue is the ongoing decline in global liquidity, which is reflected in both broad and market‑specific liquidity indices....
Windsor Slump Warns of USMCA Risk, Trim Canada Auto Exposure
Macro: Windsor's slump signals USMCA uncertainty. Key: tariff threats, cross‑border exposure, falling orders. Risk: demand pullback. Trade insight: trim Canada auto-supply positions. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
George Answers Your Questions: Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe
George Friedman argues the Trump administration’s push to destabilize Iran is less about Tehran itself and more about choking China’s future oil supply. He links this strategy to the 2019‑2020 U.S.‑backed regime change in Venezuela, suggesting a pattern of using...
Volatility Ramp
The author warns that escalating geopolitical tensions, notably the war in Iran, are pushing oil prices higher and reigniting inflation fears. This feedback loop is driving interest‑rate volatility, with the U.S. 2‑year Treasury yield jumping 30 basis points in two...
Gulf Tensions Trigger Maersk Outage, Freight Volatility Surge
Gulf tensions rise, hitting flows. Maersk halted Salalah after crane damage; 48h outage. Risk: supply delays, Strait Hormuz disruption. Trade: hedge shipping via freight volatility. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Iran Conflict Turns Global Economy Into Battlefield
John Keegan’s 'The Face of Battle' is a masterpiece of war literature. He moves from Agincourt to Waterloo, then the Somme, showing the shift from a small hand-to hand battlefield to a larger area defined by the range of cannon...
EU’s Šefčovič Confirms Push for Western Steel Club with US and UK
The European Union is weighing a Western steel alliance with the United States and the United Kingdom to curb China’s massive overcapacity, Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič announced at a WTO ministerial in Cameroon. Britain has been actively lobbying for the...
Rubio's War Timeline Claim Ignored: No Set Schedule
Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the US would have this war finished up soon: “As the Department of War has consistently outlined, we are ahead of schedule. We expect it concluded… in a matter of weeks.” THAT'S BECAUSE THERE IS...
Liquidity Decline Puts Market Volatility to New Test
My video for the week ahead: Market Volatility Faces New Test as Liquidity Drops and Data Builds (recorded before Friday's US tumble so even more relevant) https://t.co/fPTls4gx6p
Sony Suspends Global SD and CFexpress Card Orders as Memory Shortage Hits Emerging Markets
Sony announced a temporary suspension of orders for almost all SD and CFexpress memory cards due to a worldwide semiconductor shortage. Prices have tripled, tightening supply for AI data centers and consumer electronics across emerging markets.
Russia’s Oil Earnings Surge Amid US‑Israel Iran Conflict
Russia’s oil revenue this month hit a 4-year HIGH. RUSSIA = THE BIG WINNER OF THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU WAR ON IRAN. https://t.co/nMT8IvrNZc
Quarter of Global LNG Supply Offline After Attacks, Cyclone
And just like that, a quarter of global LNG supply is offline 🚢 ⚠️ Hormuz/Iran attacks have disrupted deliveries from Qatar and UAE Cyclone temporarily knocks out plants in Western Australia (Nice graphic from IEA’s Greg Molnar) https://t.co/ymJmTrTZGx
Iran War Sends Brent to $120, Spurs Global Recession Fears and Strait of Hormuz Blockade
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war has pushed Brent crude to about $120 a barrel, shut 20% of global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and sparked warnings that soaring energy costs could tip the United States toward recession. The crisis is...
Israel-Iran Strike Threatens Global Supply Chain Stability
Israel’s attack on Iran while there were attempts at “peace” negotiations may have compounded the supply chain and maritime problems that are bordering on supply and economic catastrophe. IMHO
Qatar's Largest LNG Plant Offline, Losing 1.5 Mt Weekly
Reminder that the world’s biggest LNG plant in Qatar — which is currently offline — has no alternative route to get the gas to market It is stuck. And every week it’s offline, the world loses 1.5 million tons of LNG
Israeli Strike Kills IRGC Navy Chief Alireza Tangsiri, Raising Iran‑Israel Tensions
Israel carried out a precision strike that killed IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, intensifying the ongoing Iran‑Israel war. The hit follows a series of high‑profile Iranian leader assassinations and has prompted Tehran to vow retaliation, while oil prices have surged...
Energy Crisis Deepens Strain on Emerging Economies
Wonderful to catch up with @RaniaAlMashat in NYC to talk about the latest in today’s energy crisis, and particularly the painful ripple effects for emerging and developing economies. https://t.co/2BIKAy4nXD
Higher Oil Fuels Dollar, Yields; Stocks
“complete loss of confidence” = USD crashes with stocks with bonds. My MONEY GOES HOME™️ warning. A slower crash is what we have now: Higher Oil -> Higher Dollar, Yields, USDJPY -< Lower Equities & Bonds
India's Sensex and Nifty Plunge over 2% as US‑Iran War Spikes Oil and Triggers Fund Outflows
The BSE Sensex slid 1,690 points (2.25%) to 73,583 and the NSE Nifty dropped 487 points (2.09%) to 22,820 as the US‑Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors dumped roughly Rs 1,805 cr crore (≈ $217 million) of Indian...
Saudi East-West Pipeline Hits Full 7 Million‑Barrel Capacity
Very early on the war I wrote about SaudiArabia’s crucial East-West oil pipeline (see 👇). Now, the conduit has reached its nameplate capacity of 7 million b/d, wit exports from the Saudi Red Sea coast to global markets >5 million...
Dissecting Iran War, Oil Shock: Macro, Narrative, Flow Insights
However you want to analyze the Iran war and oil shock, @CultishCreative and I have it covered on the latest Last Call on @excessreturnpod. @dampedspring on macro @EpsilonTheory on narrative @spotgamma on flows @ericpachman on what the jobs data misses https://t.co/bbX3cSwFWe
The China 5: EVs Accelerate, Dollar Shortage Bites, Pork Crisis Hits
China’s electric‑vehicle market now commands over half of new car sales, propelling record‑high export volumes that generated a $1.2 trillion trade surplus. Yet most of those earnings sit offshore, creating a hidden domestic dollar shortage that hampers imports and weakens internal...
US Financial Markets Expose Vulnerability in Global Conflicts
The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private...
Weekend Podcast Breaks Down Iran War's Economic Impact
What better way to begin the weekend with a podcast exploring -- hopefully in plain English -- the economic consequences of the war with Iran. https://t.co/e6xz6fn92u
WTO MC14: Farmers’ Group Pushes for Permanent Moratorium on TRIPS Non-Violation Complaint
At the WTO’s 14th ministerial conference in Yaoundé, India’s Rashtriya Kisan Mahasangh urged members to make the TRIPS non‑violation complaint moratorium permanent. The group argues that ending the moratorium would raise prices for agro‑chemicals and veterinary medicines, threatening small‑holder livelihoods...
Rising Nominal Rates, Falling Real Rates Boost Gold
Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... https://t.co/5amZtGPz0B https://t.co/t11fMQc7JV
War Spikes Oil, Gold Falls, Bonds Surge Globally
Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all...
Charting the Global Economy: Extensive Growth Toll From Iran War
The Iran war has triggered a synchronized downturn in global business sentiment, with purchasing‑manager indexes falling across Australia, India, Europe and the United States. Surging oil prices are driving the fastest input‑cost inflation in Germany in three years and pushing...
War Risks Clash with Aggressive Central Bank Pricing
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
Middle East War Threatens Europe's Economy and Global Standing
I joined Zanny Minton Beddoes on @TheEconomist’s Insider show for a conversation on the impact of the war in the Middle East on Europe and its economy, and the key challenges Europe faces in today’s fast-moving global environment. Watch an excerpt...
US LNG in High Demand After Qatar Plant Shutdown
Many such cases 🇺🇸 🚢 Asian and European LNG buyers are chasing the limited number of shipments still available from US suppliers after the world’s largest export plant in Qatar was shut Importers from Japan and Germany are among those in...