Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Costco Reports 3.1% Rise in Member Visits as Shoppers Tighten Belts
Costco's CFO Gary Millerchip told investors that worldwide member traffic grew 3.1% and average transaction value rose 4.2% in the latest quarter. The shift comes as inflation squeezes disposable income, prompting the warehouse club to lean on habit and its Kirkland brand to sustain growth.
China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan Prioritizes Self‑Reliance and AI, Sparking Global Economic Ripples
China unveiled its 15th Five‑Year Plan, a 2026‑2030 roadmap that puts self‑reliance, AI, and advanced manufacturing at its core. The plan coincides with profit turnarounds at AI firms like XtalPi and the launch of China Mobile’s Global Intelligence Center, signaling...
Magnificent 7 Mega‑Caps Lose $1.72 Trillion in Market Value Amid US‑Iran War
The Magnificent 7—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla—have collectively shed $1.72 trillion in market capitalization over the past four weeks of the US‑Iran war. The slide, driven by sharp equity declines and soaring oil prices, has dragged the S&P...
Foreign Investors Dump $52 Billion From Asian Emerging‑Market Stocks in March, Record Outflow
Foreign investors sold roughly $52 billion of Asian emerging‑market equities excluding China in March, the biggest monthly withdrawal on record. The outflow eclipses the 2020 pandemic sell‑off by 49% and the June 2022 Russia‑Ukraine war outflow by 148%, raising alarms about capital‑flow...
Houthis' Missile Threat Could Disrupt Red Sea Oil Flow
FEDWATCH: “.. the Houthis have entered the conflict by launching ballistic missile attacks ..; their next move could be targeting vessels in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb into the Red Sea .. The oil market, rightfully, is sensing that...
JPMorgan Says Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely in H2 2026, Citing High Hike Bar
JPMorgan chief strategist Oksana Aronov told CNBC the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower rates in the second half of 2026, arguing that the bar for any hike remains high. The comment comes as CME FedWatch data shows traders have...
US Inflation Rises; Ongoing US‑Iran Conflict Keeps It High
🇺🇸 US inflation keeps rising. As long as the US-Iran conflict persists, inflation will likely stay elevated. https://t.co/LatxByAQYN
Australia’s Narcissist ‘Elite’
Australia faces a confluence of structural pressures: soaring house prices and rents have forced many households into high private debt, while energy costs and stagnant wages erode disposable income. A sizable public‑sector workforce and generous executive pay have entrenched a...
Drillers See Triple-Digit Crude and Hit the Brakes
Brent crude has surged past $100 a barrel and WTI topped $90, creating a price environment that comfortably exceeds shale breakeven levels. Yet U.S. oil drillers remain hesitant, citing the ongoing Middle East conflict as a major obstacle to investment...
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Fuels Inflation, Stalls Rate Cuts
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
China’s Battery and EV Exports Surpass Solar, Defying Tariffs
China's cleantech exports are surging. A couple observations: 1. All of this is from before the US invasion of Iran and current oil price spike. We should expect these numbers to keep growing, especially EVs. 2. US tariffs haven't stopped China's...
The Illusion of the BRICS as a «Bric-À-Brac»: Why the West Is Wrong to Underestimate the Resilience of BRICS+
The article argues that Western portrayals of the BRICS+ as a disjointed "bric-à-brac" underestimate its growing resilience, especially as India assumes the 2026 presidency amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite criticism over heterogeneity, the bloc is expanding its economic infrastructure through...
Iran Clears 20 Pakistan-Flagged Vessels Through Hormuz
Iran announced it will clear twenty Pakistani‑flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing two ships per day after months of near‑total closure due to regional tensions. The move follows earlier passages of two tankers carrying roughly 500,000 and 600,000...
Congressional Push to Suspend Gasoline Tax as Fuel Prices Spike to $90 per Barrel
U.S. lawmakers are advancing a proposal to temporarily suspend the federal gasoline tax in response to soaring fuel costs, with crude oil prices climbing above $90 a barrel after the Iran conflict escalated. The move aims to ease pressure on...
UN Launches Task Force as COSCO Ships Turn Back, Oil Hits Three‑year High Amid Hormuz Crisis
The United Nations announced a new task force to safeguard Strait of Hormuz trade as two COSCO container ships were forced to retreat, and oil prices rose to their highest levels since 2022. The moves highlight mounting pressure on global...
UK Budget Overhaul on April 6 Cuts Tax Reliefs, Hits Millions of Households
The UK Treasury’s budget changes taking effect on April 6 eliminate full inheritance tax relief for AIM shares, cap agricultural property relief at £2.5 million, and raise dividend tax rates. The measures upend decades‑long planning for retirees, small‑business owners and asset‑rich families,...
Don't Strike a Deal with Iran's Current Leaders, Opposition Figure Pahlavi Warns
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former shah, warned at a CPAC rally that negotiating with Iran’s current leaders would merely postpone threats to the United States. He urged Iranians to resume street protests and presented himself as the most...
Iran War Triggers Four-Week Mortgage Rate Surge
Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj
Is It Time for Energy Rationing to Return?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged governments and consumers to slash energy use as the U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran fuels the biggest oil disruption in history, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for weeks. To blunt price spikes, the...
Gulf War May Push Beverage Prices Up
PepsiCo and Coca‑Cola warned that the Gulf conflict is driving up key input costs, especially PET resin, which has jumped about 65% to roughly $1,580‑$1,744 per metric ton since late February. Container freight from East Asia to the U.S. West...
India's Economic Ties with Azerbaijan Improve Despite Political Drift
India’s outbound investments to Azerbaijan surged in 2025, reaching $56.0 million, a 29.8% increase over the prior year. Cumulative Indian capital in Azerbaijan has climbed from $480 million in 2016 to $1.26 billion by mid‑2025, reflecting a decade‑long expansion. While Azerbaijan assisted in...
The Dollar Is Still the Main Character in Both Forex and Crypto
Despite talk of decentralisation, the US dollar continues to be the core reference point for both traditional foreign‑exchange markets and digital‑asset trading. In forex, the greenback anchors major currency pairs, risk sentiment and reserve holdings, while in crypto, prices, stablecoins...
Six Years Later: Does Brexit Show Any Real Benefits?
American here, trying to understand: 6 years on, has Brexit had any real upside? Genuine question, please don't crucify me 😅 #Brexit #unitedkingdom #uk
Reserve Currency Advantage No Longer Erodes Domestic Industry
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
India Supports Draft WTO Fish Declaration, Says Subsidised Industrial Fleets Cause Overfishing
India backed the WTO’s draft decision to keep negotiating fisheries‑subsidy rules, arguing that heavily subsidised industrial fleets drive overcapacity and overfishing. The draft calls for comprehensive discipline on such subsidies and includes special and differential treatment for developing countries. Commerce...
Global Public Debt Hits Record, Equals World GDP
International Monetary Fund: Global public debt has risen to a record level - nearly 100% of global GDP. https://t.co/H6FXJN78RZ
Future View:
guy in the future: “So, how serious is this, on a scale of just noise to that time the Strait of Hormuz got closed?”
Oil Prices Surge as Middle East Tensions Threaten Energy Security
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to halt oil shipments to Cuba and a high‑level call involving Elon Musk, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open have pushed global oil prices to multi‑year highs....
Inconsistent Bailouts Fueled 2008 Market Panic
(1/2) I recall an interview after the 2008 crash where the late economist Anna Schwartz said she thought the market threw up its hands in confusion and crashed because the government was so inconsistent about which bank they saved and...
Goldman Sachs Predicts US Economy Hit by Trump's Iran War
Thanks to Trump's war on Iran, Goldman Sachs concludes that the US economy will take A BIG HIT. It's time to start taking the 2nd President of the U.S. Thomas Jefferson's proclamation seriously: "I hold it that a little rebellion now...
European Shares Slip as Iran‑Israel Conflict Fuels Energy Uncertainty
European benchmarks opened lower after mixed signals from the Iran‑Israel war pushed oil prices higher and heightened geopolitical risk. The slide reflects investor anxiety over a potential supply bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz and its knock‑on effects on European...
Market Break Confirmed: Volatility Spikes, Next Collapse Uncertain
$VIX 31. $SPY -3.4% YTD. Brent +47% monthly. 10Y at 4.44%. Gold $4,439. If you're waiting for confirmation that something broke — this is the confirmation. The question is what breaks next. https://t.co/SxUUBm3sBm
US Income Growth Fueled by Top 10% Outperformance
Higher average per capita incomes in the US are down to the divergence of the top 10 percent of the income distribution from the rest of the US and the rest of the world. More on this in the Chartbook...
IMF Staff‑Level Deal Unlocks $1.2 Bn for Pakistan, Bolstering Currency and Balance‑of‑Payments
The International Monetary Fund reached a staff‑level agreement with Pakistan, releasing a $1.2 bn tranche—$1.0 bn from the Extended Fund Facility and $210 m from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The deal is aimed at shoring up Pakistan’s balance‑of‑payments, stabilising the rupee and...
Rising Yields and Growth Fears Prompt TLT, SPY Sell‑offs
10Y yield at 4.44%. Highest since July 2025. Rates rising while growth fears mount. $TLT sellers and $SPY sellers agree on one thing: neither wants to own the future right now. That's a problem. https://t.co/lYjNri1VOz
Markets Misread Peace, War Risk Drives Volatility
Ceasefire hopes faded. Trump extended the Iran deadline 10 days. Brent crude didn't flinch at $112. $VIX held above 30. The market priced in peace and got more war. That repricing has further to go. https://t.co/e3sUJyyL7v
Hormuz Controls Global Economy; Oil Flow Secures War Viability
Let me be clear @LukeGromen: Hormuz is the global economy. If you couldn’t secure oil flows, you had no business starting a war that could put the world here. No aspirations. Just hard reality.
Trump's Oil Policy: Up the Hill, Down Again
Trump as the grand old Duke of York, who marches oil up the hill and then marches it down again. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/SmXQ2Cvd7I
Socialist Economies First Curb Capital, Then Talent Flight
This is why socialist economies eventually restrict capital outflows and then human capital outflows. https://t.co/tWTL8I6DWU
Bonds Outpace Stocks, Signaling New Bullish Hard‑asset Era
Same Story - One month Bonds $TLT -5% vs Stocks $QQQ -7% Last 20 years, equities risk-off + geopolitical events = bonds rallied / with higher prices. Game changer, since 2022 this has not been the case, a significant -...
US Attack on Iran Triggers Global Economic Collapse via Hormuz
Your post is incoherent @KMACKROB If you meant the US couldn't control Hormuz, then it should not have attacked Iran Now we have a global economic meltdown Every journalist and casual oil observer has known Hormuz is the heartbeat of the world...
Iran War Erases $12 Trillion, Surpassing Three Major Economies
The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined. https://t.co/lHkpoJl7xf
EU Commissioner Mulls Gas Price Cap Amid Shortages
As reported by the respected French newspaper Le Monde, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen considers capping gas prices "a possibility" amid oil shortages. IT'S TIME FOR THE EU'S JORGENSEN TO GET REAL AND PULL OUT A PHOTO OF THE GAS LINES...
BIS Lists Block Shipping, Not Purchasing, for Chinese Buyers
Being on the BIS UVL or Entity List doesn’t restrict buying “from” it restricts shipping “to”. There could be political pressure but I doubt it, especially if used for Chinese consumers.
Digital Spending Soars While Physical Investment Stalls
ICT hardware roughly doubled while software and databases almost tripled. In contrast, real business investment in non-digital tangible assets has barely grown since the GFC, with volumes only slightly above their 2007 level. https://t.co/udAD74Ik9Z
Korea’s Border Shutdown Forces Firms to Downgrade Labor
Evidence from Korea’s pandemic border closure shows that when younger immigrants doing physically demanding, entry-level jobs is suddenly cut off, many firms contract, some exit, and survivors reallocate domestic workers to lower-skill tasks at lower wages https://t.co/bh3nBsCXoK
Post‑2008 Dollarisation Wave Restores 2000‑Era Share
Three distinct waves of dollarisation since the 1960s. The most recent wave, which emerged after the 2008 global crisis, pushed the dollar's share to nearly match its level from 2000, when the euro was introduced. https://t.co/A6TnrvTxXS
China’s Subsidies Surged Post‑Made in China 2025, Trade War
Industrial subsidies in China have increased dramatically. Notably, there was a sharp acceleration in subsidy levels following the launch of the “Made in China 2025” programme in 2015 and the onset of the US–China trade war in 2018. https://t.co/eFhIfiECI4
EU Labour Shortages Fall, Unemployment Stays Steady
After peaking in 2022, labour shortages across the EU are back at their pre-pandemic levels and on a declining path. Vacancy rates have fallen markedly. Yet, this easing of the labour market has not translated into higher unemployment. https://t.co/cARZL9kIyG
Rate Hikes Shrink Cash, Cuts Boost Household Spending
Research finds that rate increases lead to lower cash-on-hand and lower household spending, whereas spending rises following rate cuts. https://t.co/bDbE1CT1AB