Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
EU Enlargement Rethink as Divisions Emerge Among Key Member States
The European Union’s next enlargement round faces a crossroads as member states clash over speed and criteria. A German Council policy paper highlights Germany’s shift toward geopolitically‑driven, merit‑based accession, while the EU rejected a fast‑track proposal for Ukraine, insisting on a realistic pathway. Meanwhile, Montenegro and Albania are positioned to close most negotiation chapters by 2027‑2028, drawing renewed focus. Divergent stances from the Netherlands and France underscore domestic political constraints that could shape the bloc’s expansion strategy.
LPG Shortage Forces Uttarakhand Hotels to Switch to Alternative Fuels
A West Asia conflict‑driven LPG shortage has hit Uttarakhand, forcing hotels and restaurants to turn to biogas, CNG and other alternatives. Operators cite rising costs and supply gaps, while officials warn the disruption could linger.
SBI Funds Flags Israel‑Iran War as New Strain on Rupee, Remittances and Fiscal Outlook
SBI Funds Management warned that the ongoing Israel‑Iran conflict could pressure the Indian rupee, reduce outbound remittances and widen the fiscal deficit. The alert comes as oil prices surge, the rupee weakens and global investors adopt a defensive stance.
British Gilts Plunge in Global Bond Sell‑off as BOE Holds Rates Amid Iran War
British government bonds suffered the steepest price drops in the latest worldwide bond rout, with 10‑year gilt yields jumping to 5% after the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%. Analysts link the sell‑off to the BOE’s stance,...
Bursa Malaysia Braces for Cautious Trading as West Asia Conflict Dampens Sentiment
Bursa Malaysia warned that investors will likely adopt a defensive stance next week, citing the escalating Israel‑Iran conflict as a key drag on market sentiment. The exchange’s cautious outlook underscores how geopolitical risk is shaping equity flows in the region.
Netanyahu Orders Expansion of Security Buffer Zone in Southern Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the Israeli military will further expand the security buffer zone along the southern Lebanese border. The move aims to strengthen Israel's defensive posture amid rising cross‑border fire from Hezbollah. Netanyahu framed the expansion...
Markets Move to Price in Rate Hikes as Inflation Fears and Geopolitics Reshape Fed Expectations
Markets have shifted from expecting Federal Reserve cuts to pricing in rate hikes for 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows about a 30% chance rates will end the year higher than the current 3.50‑3.75% range, while odds of cuts...
US Food and Energy Self‑sufficiency Is an Illusion
US is "self-sufficient in food & energy"... ...but US food & energy supply chains are now HIGHLY centralized, fragile, & long (& usually stretch back to China.) "US is self-sufficient in food & energy" is like the man who drowned in a...
100k Troops in Iran Signal Prolonged War, Inflation Surge
The ‘100k troops on land in Iran’ is the new risk narratives for prolonged war and confirmation of escalation of inflation which would lead in global rate hikes again. Rumble in the Jungle is here…
Dispatch€s From Frankfurt - ECB: Graduated Response
The European Central Bank’s annual Frankfurt conference highlighted a sober mood as policymakers grapple with the lingering energy‑price shock and geopolitical risks from the war in the Middle East. President Christine Lagarde’s keynote outlined a "graduated response" strategy, emphasizing scenario‑based...
Ground Forces Needed as Trump’s Air Plan Fails
trump can’t reopen the strait of hormuz with an air campaign. and the iranians aren’t going to accept that outcome willingly. ground troops are coming.
French Factory Closures Jump 30% on Asia Pressure, US Tariffs
French factory closures rose nearly 30% in 2025, with 160 plants shutting versus 121 in 2024. The surge is linked to intensified competition from Asian manufacturers, new US tariffs on European steel and aluminum, and higher energy costs. New factory...
UAE’s Closure Drives Iran Toward Chinese Banking
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
Here Are the 3 Big Things We're Watching in the Stock Market in the Week Ahead
The market heads into a volatile week as the Iran‑Israel conflict sustains high oil prices and fuels inflation worries. Investors will focus on the March non‑farm payrolls, expected to add about 60,000 jobs, alongside ADP, JOLTS and consumer‑confidence releases. A...
Indonesia Cuts Free Meals to Save US$2.3 Billion as Fuel Prices Soar
Indonesia will reduce its free school‑meal programme from six to five days a week starting March 31, aiming to save roughly 40 trillion rupiah (about US$2.3 billion). The cut is part of a broader austerity push to shield the world’s largest Southeast Asian...
The Economics of War Extend Far Beyond Energy Prices and Stock Markets
The article argues that the economics of war reach far beyond energy prices and stock market swings, encompassing democratic war initiation, the military‑industrial complex, and Big Oil’s profit motives. It highlights recent research showing that populist nationalism in advanced democracies...
As Bitcoin Weakens Even ‘Safe’ Investments Like the 2-Year Treasury Are Starting to Crack
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $69 billion of 2‑year notes on March 24, achieving a 3.936% high yield. The bid‑to‑cover ratio slipped to 2.44, indicating weaker demand than the previous month. The softening reflects heightened inflation worries sparked by a Middle‑East oil shock...
NEOM: Saudi’s Green Steel Powerhouse Driving Future Industry
I think a lot of people overlook that NEOM is as much a strategic play on future green steel production as it is a weird futuristic city. Also, Saudi is via the project positioning itself to be - in the...
Emerging Markets Rout Lures Contrarians Betting on Rate Cuts
Emerging‑market assets have entered their steepest monthly decline since 2022, with stocks down about 10% and local‑currency bond yields at two‑year highs. Asset managers TT International and AllianceBernstein are buying beaten‑down EM bonds, betting that central banks will cut rates...
Why Europe Matters - in 1min 58secs
Timothy Garton Ash’s brief post underscores a rallying call for a stronger, more integrated Europe, warning that the continent’s future hinges on overcoming fragmented national politics. He highlights a staggering €64 trillion (≈ $70 trillion) investment question that Europe must address to remain...
Shanghai Composite Volatility Eases as A‑Shares Find Floor Amid Middle East Tensions
The Shanghai Composite index, after a 143‑point plunge that marked the year’s biggest single‑day drop, rebounded to close the week at 3,913.72 points, a 1.1% decline for the week. Energy, metals and new‑energy stocks led the recovery while overall market...
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Understanding Producer Price Index: A Key Inflation Indicator
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures price changes at the wholesale level, capturing the cost producers receive for goods and services. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is broken into crude, intermediate, and core...
Oil Surge and Strong USD Favor Energy Exporters
Macro: Tadawul -0.13%; financials, real estate & retail lag. Oil jump (Brent $105) and firmer USD drive divergence. Risk: oil volatility, FX swings. Trade: buy energy exporters. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Hormuz Crisis Exposes Superpower Indifference to Global Lives
The international fallout from the Hormuz crisis and its unintended consequences have me wondering: Is this another global experiment? And if it is, do we have to wait until all the results are collected? I am just asking a question. ...
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
Two Conflicting Trade Definitions Fuel E‑Commerce Confusion
Confused about all the e-commerce news? There might be a good reason for it. There are two co-existing definitions of “e-commerce” in trade policy. They refer to fundamentally different things. Both are very hot topics at the moment. /1
Markets Must Price In Prolonged Iran‑US Conflict
Iran's 5 demands include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. That's a non-starter. Trump extended the deadline 10 more days. Iran rejected the 15-point ceasefire plan. Markets need to price in a LONG conflict. Not a headline. A regime. $XLE $USO https://t.co/WWkv5lwoiG
Weekly Wrap: Oil Shock, Credit Panic, Century-Long Rate Insights
For our weekly wrap, @CultishCreative and I cover all ends of the spectrum. We've got Bob Elliott on the oil shock We've got Larry Swedroe on why private credit panic may be overblown And we've got the 100 Year Thinkers of...
Iran's Inflation Drops, Oil Exports Surge Amid War
My latest with @davidlin_TV on Iran: "Since the war started, Iran's inflation has come down from 87% to 67%. Iranian oil exports have increased substantially at higher prices with lower discounts. You won't read these FACTS in the press." https://t.co/tnO36Tw8XU
Inflation Fears Undermine Bonds' Traditional Safe‑Haven Appeal
"bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts." https://t.co/acyJLqVIXP https://t.co/7yOQbeNrn2
China Blames Philippines, Yet Urges Ties Stabilization
China Urges Philippines To Stabilize Ties Amid Maritime Row. China causes the problem. Then asks the Philippines to improve the situation. https://t.co/hyHl0iwvov
Dollar Weaponization Reshapes Finance, Gold, and Investment Flows
The “weaponization of the dollar” has profound implications for financial plumbing, the dollar itself, and investment flows—including gold. @edwardfishman’s Chokepoints is a must-read on history/key players/dynamics. Thanks @nfergus for the recommendation. https://t.co/4AcmzUniud
Australia's LNG Outage Slashes Exports, Leaves Market Bufferless
Australia LNG offline for weeks. Half its exports hit. This market has no buffer left. https://t.co/wV9mseaJW8 #LNG #EnergyCrisis #Oil #Geopolitics
Economic Weakness Erodes U.S. Military Superiority
Bit of a deep dive with a handsome economist (me) on how America's economic vulnerability undermines its military advantage. https://t.co/WZQ5ou95bM
Trump Dismisses Intel, Claims Iran Rockets Depleted
While Trump says that Iran has “very few rockets left”, US intel suggests that only 1/3 of Iran’s missile arsenal is confirmed to be destroyed. Who says Trump is inconsistent? He consistently ignores US intelligence. https://t.co/7whRgOX8kz
Japan Redirects Naphtha Imports Amid Middle East Reliance
Japan is switching naphtha imports from the Middle East to other countries, says Prime Minister Takaichi 🇯🇵 ⛽️ Japan relies on the Mid East for >70% of naphtha imports, and has 20 days of stockpiles Shortages threaten supply of petrochemicals, plastics,...
One‑Year Inflation Swaps Hover Near 3%, No Panic
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
Bond Market Squeezes Yield Expectations, Proves Wrong
2Y yield: 3.89%. 5Y yield: crossed 4%. Everyone was positioned for rate cuts. Everyone was wrong. Bloomberg calls it the biggest positioning squeeze in years. The bond market just delivered a reality check. $TLT $IEF https://t.co/jyYH8ebPrR
Oil Upside Limited Even With Iranian Embargo, Brent at $115
I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You...
Subtract 300k Bpd From 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts
⭕️For now, whatever your estimates of global oil consumption growth for 2026, subtract about 300 kb/d from it. This number will change as we move forward.
Embargo Iranian Oil; Cut Funding to War‑fueling Regimes
I support an embargo of Iranian oil. The reason is Russia. We never embargoed Russia. If we had, there's a good chance it wouldn't still be wreaking havoc in Ukraine. You just can't allow the life blood of these regimes...
Dollar Weakness Paused; Brazil Set to Surge Post‑war
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Personal Services Spending Fuels 3.3% Inflation, Outpacing Fed Target
Robust consumer spending on manicures, haircuts, and dog daycare is FORCING services inflation to 3.3%/yr. That's stubbornly above the Fed's 2%/yr target. THE US WILL NEVER GET THE INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/YhMhZTG7Gl
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
Saudi Oil Revenues Rise, No Gold‑selling Crisis
There's lots of misinformation at the moment, including the idea that big Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia are having to sell gold. Saudi Arabia's revenues from oil exports are actually up, because the rise in oil prices more than offsets...
Today's Chartbook Highlights Crucial Map for Immediate Insight
Hard to think of a more important map than this right now, featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/qA2ezld5Aa
Turkey Alone Sells Gold Amid Fragile Currency Peg
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
Discussing Iran War and Rubio’s G7 Visit on Bloomberg
About to be on @BloombergTV's "Bloomberg This Weekend" with @davidgura @EenaRuffini @LisaMateoTV to talk about the #IranWar and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to France for the #G7
Immigrants Expand Demand, Creating New Jobs
Immigrants weren’t just filling existing jobs; they were helping create them. That’s Econ 101: jobs are not a fixed pie. More people means more customers, more demand, more businesses expanding, and yes, more hiring. https://t.co/TuC32PJmUk
War‑Driven Energy Shock Pushes Importers Toward Alternatives
As the outbreak of a regional war disrupts global energy markets for the second time in four years, oil & gas importing countries will be motivated to find alternatives; coal, nuclear, renewables and EVs alike, as @bradplumer & Rebecca Elliott...