Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Some Folks Were Hired. Allegedly.
The ADP National Employment Report showed the U.S. private sector added 62,000 jobs in March, well above the 40,000 consensus estimate. Economists had forecast a modest gain, making the actual figure 22,000 higher than expected. The prior month’s ADP data were also revised upward to a 66,000‑job increase, surpassing the original February estimate. These stronger‑than‑anticipated hiring numbers contrast with the more tempered figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, underscoring a divergence between private‑sector and overall employment trends.
Brutal Quarter Ends With a Rally — But Risks Are Rising
The episode reviews the dramatic end‑of‑quarter rally in U.S. equities, driven by shifting geopolitical signals around the Iran‑Saudi conflict and a potential de‑escalation hinted at by former President Trump and Iran’s president. Host Ed Elson and guest Kevin Gordon, head...
The Daily Feather — The Fifth Element
Danielle DiMartino Booth’s Daily Feather post introduces a “fifth element” in the U.S. labor market—labor‑shock capitulation—pointing to a sharp drop in quits, rising job‑insecurity metrics, and a contraction in JOLTS job openings. She argues these signals foretell a structural weakening...
Asia Daily: April 1, 2026
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said no cabinet officials will travel to Beijing before the expected mid‑May Trump‑Xi summit, raising doubts about traditional pre‑meeting talks. A European Parliament delegation made its first visit to China in eight years, focusing on...
Sen. Warren Slams Trump Administration for Pressuring EU to Relax Tech Regulations
Senator Elizabeth Warren has publicly accused the Trump administration of pressuring European allies to ease tech regulations, using tariff threats to protect U.S. tech giants like Elon Musk’s xAI. In a letter to USTR chief Jamieson Greer, she demanded records...
Can a Country Get Too Rich?
Norway’s new Edvard Munch Museum in Oslo, a 13‑storey slab of recycled aluminium and glass, opened in 2021 after a ten‑year delay and a $350 million price tag that ballooned by $200 million. The project, financed by the nation’s deep sovereign wealth...
Is GDP the Right Measure of Progress?
The gross domestic product was devised in the 1930s by Simon Kuznets to gauge national welfare, deliberately omitting military spending and other distortions. During World II the metric was repurposed as a production gauge, treating every dollar spent on war material the...
Each Dollar of Debt Increases Rate Risk, Reduces Crisis Flex
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
US Tariff Refund Portal to Exclude One-Third of Imports at First
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection will launch an online portal to refund tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, initially covering about 63% of the 53 million import entries at issue. The first phase will process only non‑final duties, leaving...
Crude Oil Comes Under Renewed Pressure Amid US-Iran Deal Optimism; Upside Risks Remain
Oil prices slipped after President Trump reiterated his willingness to end the Iran conflict without tying it to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials responded with cautious optimism, saying they are ready to end hostilities but demand...
China Is Helping Build Africa’s Cities, but Its Approach Sidelines Local Urban Planners
Chinese banks have become the leading bilateral financiers of urban infrastructure in Africa’s fastest‑growing cities. Between 2000 and 2021 they committed roughly $37 billion to six major metros, with transport projects receiving over $17 billion and 74% of projects finished within two...
U.A.E. Preparing to Help Open Strait of Hormuz By Force
The Wall Street Journal’s What’s News covers the United Arab Emirates’ shift toward becoming a combatant in the Iran‑U.S. conflict, as it prepares to help force‑open the Strait of Hormuz by clearing mines and supporting a U.N. resolution authorizing military action. Middle‑East...
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Hits 45‑Month High of 51.6 in March
The euro‑area manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.6 in March, its highest level since mid‑2022, driven by a surge in production and new orders. The gain came amid Middle‑East logistics disruptions that also pushed input‑cost inflation to a multi‑year...
FTSE 100 Surges 1.6% to 10,337 as UK Stocks Rebound on April 1
London's FTSE 100 climbed 1.58% to 10,336.93 on April 1, buoyed by easing geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz and upbeat earnings from energy, banking and consumer staples. The rally follows a 1.6% gain the previous day and signals...
Trump Says US Will Exit Iran War in 2‑3 Weeks, Reshaping US Leadership
President Donald Trump told the nation the United States will pull its forces out of the Iran war within two to three weeks, a dramatic shift in American foreign‑policy leadership. The announcement comes as oil prices remain elevated at $80‑$100...
Asian Equities Rally on Middle East De‑escalation as Hang Seng Jumps 2% and CSI 300 Climbs 1.7%
Investors poured into Asian equities on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said the Iran‑Israel war could end within weeks. The Hang Seng Index rose 2% to 25,294 points, while mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 1.7%, marking the strongest single‑day...
Officials Weigh Trade Probe on Sugar but Could Face Obstacles
U.S. officials are weighing a trade investigation into sugar imports, considering both a Section 201 safeguard and a Section 301 unfair‑practice probe. While overall sugar imports have declined, higher‑tariff shipments have risen, and the existing 15.36‑cent‑per‑pound quota tariff has lost its protective...
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Hit Tree Nut Industry
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by about 90% since the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict began, halting the flow of U.S. tree‑nut shipments to the Middle East. The region accounts for roughly $1.75 billion, or 20 % of U.S. agricultural exports there,...
UK Requires Closer EU Partnerships Due to Volatile World, Starmer Says
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the war in Iran has created volatile global conditions, prompting the UK to seek closer security and economic cooperation with the European Union. He warned that rising energy costs could echo the 1970s oil...
Indonesia Bets on Nickel Levy to Break Its China Habit
Indonesia is preparing a progressive export levy on processed nickel products such as nickel pig iron and ferronickel. The tax starts at about 2% when LME prices sit between $15,000‑$16,000 per ton and can rise to roughly 10% as prices...
RI Posts $1.27b Trade Surplus Despite Surge in Capital Goods Imports
Indonesia posted a $1.27 billion trade surplus in February, up from $954 million in January but below the $2 billion-plus levels seen in the latter half of 2025. Imports rose 10.85% year‑on‑year to $20.89 billion, driven by a 33.68% surge in capital‑goods purchases. Consumer‑goods...
UK Universities Expand Into India Amid Shifting Demand, Tighter Visa Rules
British universities are establishing campuses in India as part of a £40 billion (≈$53 billion) education export target by 2030. Nine institutions, including Southampton, Liverpool and York, now offer British‑accredited programmes at lower fees, responding to tighter UK visa rules that cut...
Iran War Risks Private Credit Crisis and AI Bubble Bursting, Bank of England Warns
The Bank of England warned that the U.S.-Iran conflict could trigger a cascade of financial stresses, amplifying existing weaknesses in private‑credit markets and over‑valued AI‑focused stocks. A negative supply shock is tightening financing conditions, raising the risk of simultaneous credit...
Bahrain Circulates Revised UN Hormuz Draft, Drops Binding Enforcement
Bahrain circulated a revised U.N. Security Council draft on protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping language that authorises “all necessary means” while dropping an explicit Chapter VII reference. The change aims to avoid a Russian or Chinese veto...
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UAE Energy Minister Says World Must Not Be Held 'Hostage' By Iran over Hormuz
UAE Energy Minister Suhail al‑Mazrouei warned that Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz could hold global trade hostage, urging a unified international response. He highlighted the potential economic fallout if safe passage is not guaranteed and stressed the UAE’s...
Cuba in Free Fall
Cuba’s economy is spiraling into a crisis deeper than the post‑Soviet collapse of the 1990s. Within weeks, the island lost its external energy imports and its primary sources of foreign earnings, including tourism and sugar exports. Manufacturing and other key...
CBDC Leaders Still Back Cash, Not Eliminating It
Is this what passes as scholarship at the @OMFIF these days? "Don’t kill cash - OMFIF" No CBDC-building nation has proposed the elimination of cash. Look at China and India as examples of the two largest. Both...
Iran War Pushing India to Edge of a Currency Crisis
India's rupee has slid another 5.5% this year, making it Asia's worst performer in 2025 and hovering around 95 per dollar. Rising Brent crude above $100 a barrel has added roughly $5 billion to India's monthly oil import bill, intensifying pressure...
BOJ Policymaker Asada: How to Deal with Stagflation Is a Hard Question for Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymaker Kazuo Asada warns that rising oil prices are driving a stagflationary mix of higher inflation and weaker growth, posing a tough dilemma for monetary policy. Asada, a newly appointed member known for his Modern Monetary...
Odd Lots: Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher (Podcast)
Oil prices have surged since Iran’s conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning. Strategic petroleum reserves and inventory drawdowns have temporarily softened the shock, yet significant volumes of oil remain stranded...
Gatchalian Calls for Prudent Budgeting Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Senator Win Gatchalian filed Senate Resolution No. 349 urging prudent fiscal management in the 2026 General Appropriations Act as global economic uncertainty rises from the ongoing Middle East conflict. He warned that a massive fuel price hike, driven by the crisis,...
Germany March Final Manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 51.7 Prelim
Germany’s final manufacturing PMI for March rose to 52.2, up from the preliminary 51.7 and the prior month’s 50.9, signalling continued expansion. The index was buoyed by stronger output and new‑order growth as firms stocked up amid supply‑chain uncertainty. At...
US Allows Kazakhstan to Continue Transit of Russian Oil to China
The United States has granted Kazakhstan a waiver allowing it to keep transporting Russian crude oil to China until March 19, 2027. The decision follows a consultation with the U.S. Treasury and was announced by Kazakhstan’s energy ministry. The extension...
Oil Shock: Temporary Pain or Recession Trigger?
Ok, so here is the debate: Bull: higher oil price will raise inflation and reduce the LEVEL of disposable income/profits. But even if oil prices stay high, impact on GROWTH eventually wears off. Its a soft patch. And since we know...
Mozambique Fully Repaid $701 Million IMF Debt Early, Bank Says
Mozambique has fully repaid its $701 million International Monetary Fund loan ahead of schedule, according to Standard Bank. The early settlement suggests the IMF’s planned August mission to the country is now unnecessary. Details of the repayment terms remain undisclosed, but...
Gold Crash Makes It Cheaper Than Ever
I sat down with @GoldSwitzerland partner Matthew Piepenburg, a former hedge fund trader who made millions during the dot-com bubble at 28, and author of "Rigged to Fail." Gold just crashed 25%. He says buy more. "Gold is not rising to an...
Markets Hope for Middle East Peace, Expect Consolidation
The capital markets are being driven by hope that the Middle East war ends shortly. Markets are anticipatory. Still, they do not always get it right. Ahead of POTUS speech tonight, consolidation may be most likely scenario. https://t.co/6peh5F9uHH https://t.co/aae8efFiPO
South Sudan Blind Without Money Supply Data Since Oct 2024
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = FLYING BLIND https://t.co/nPGh0aY8rq
Trump’s Iran Address Could Spark Volatile Futures Moves
If yesterday's rip-roaring rally wasn't enough and you were not entertained, then----- Tonight, Trump addresses the nation on Iran. Here are the scenarios, what I'd assign to each, and how futures likely react:
Iran's Oil Role Threatened Amid U.S. Military Pullback
It’s a new day & I’m on @Bloomberg Surveillance this morning (6:30am) to discuss #oil #Iran latest devs. Military is building up but Trump wants to wind down operations in 2-3 weeks. Will Iran remain the Persian Gulf toll collector @ACGlobalEnergy...
Trump's Alienation Leaves America Isolated on Global Stage
Burn bridges, hold a war & nobody comes Trump has alienated every US ally America stands alone #Geopolitics #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis
Eurozone Inflation Likely Exceeds 4.5% Next
We're slightly above 4.5% in the Eurozone for next year, adding 0.2-to-0.3pp to the headline on its own, and I feel like we're lowballing it. No amount of demand destruction are likely to stop that either, unless it gets really...
China Leverages Pakistan to Stabilize Hormuz, Bypassing U.S.
China is moving to stabilize Hormuz without the U.S.—using Pakistan as a diplomatic bridge. Power shifts to whoever restores the flows. https://t.co/3LW8TIyS65 #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #China
AI Advances Won’t Boost GDP Growth Beyond Current Trends
The Forecasting Research Institute surveyed 69 economists, 52 AI experts, and 38 superforecasters on AI's economic impact: they predict major AI progress but no dramatic break from current GDP growth rates by 2030 or 2050 https://t.co/6YyUQtZBqG #ArtificialIntelligence #Technology #Innovation #TechNews
Markets Rally as Trump Iran News Eclipses US Retail Sales
Trump’s Iran update vs US Retail Sales - that’s the main focus for markets today. Stocks up, dollar down, Gold firm but Oil still above $100. Here’s what to watch 👇 https://t.co/gU5QbERzUH
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
After a 7-year hiatus, India is about to import its first Iranian oil. At ~$100 a barrel. Quite the achievement in Washington for the long-term strenght of the economic and financial sanctions regime.
Gilts, Euro Bonds Rally as Oil Slumps on Iran Optimism
Gilts and European bonds surge as oil drops on Iran war optimism https://t.co/FkSGPhfdFv via @alicegledhill1 @highisland https://t.co/pKqalXyzEV
Middle Powers Rally to Fill US Void in Global Trade
1/6 FT editorial: "Other governments have not done much to play the role the US once did of seeking to anchor the world trading system. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, and others have been talking about an alliance of middle powers...
Libyan Dinar Plummets, Ranks 5th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Libyan dinar ranks as the WORLD'S 5TH WORST CURRENCY. The dinar has depreciated by over 26% against the USD in the past year. LIBYA = ANOTHER REGIME CHANGE FAILURE = A FAILED STATE. https://t.co/3GHuHYqn9N
China's New Home Prices Tick up in March
Reuters: "China's new home prices edged up in March, reversing a decline in the previous month, supported by a seasonal pickup in demand in major cities. New home prices in 100 cities rose 0.05% from a month earlier after falling...