Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
From Germany to Spain: How Europe’s Biggest Economies Are Weathering the Oil and Gas Shock
Europe faces its sharpest energy shock since 2022 after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and liquid gas supplies. Benchmark oil prices have surged above €115 ($125) per barrel and EU gas prices are up 70% versus pre‑war levels, prompting fears of physical shortages by April. Germany responded with a fuel price package limiting station price hikes to once daily and tighter competition rules, while France introduced a $76 million emergency plan targeting transport, agriculture and fishing. EU energy ministers will meet to harmonize actions and prevent a patchwork of national measures.
BIG NUMBER 3.73%
Investors now expect the Federal Reserve’s benchmark federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.73%, near the top of its current 3.50‑3.75% range. This marks a 70‑basis‑point increase from a month ago when three cuts were anticipated, driven by heightened...
Trump’s Policies Collectively Fuel Inflation Despite Temporary Shocks
Yes, the impact on inflation from tariffs is transitory. Yes, the impact on inflation from the oil shock will most likely be transitory. But the backdrop is every single one of Trump's major policies is inflationary: Larger fiscal deficits are inflationary Reducing...
Iran War Creates Unprecedented Oil Shortage, No Spare Capacity
The Iran war has disrupted a greater share of oil supplies than any previous shock. And this time, there is virtually no spare capacity available to make up the gap. @wsj
Oil Rises, Asian Markets Sink as Middle East War Broadens
Oil prices surged on Monday as Brent crude briefly topped $117 a barrel and U.S. crude hovered around $102, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s attacks on aluminium smelters in Bahrain and the UAE pushed metal prices...
The Future of Energy Geopolitics Is Written in Patents
The International Energy Agency’s State of Energy Innovation 2026 report finds energy‑related patents now account for roughly 10 percent of all global patents, with batteries alone representing about 40 percent of those filings in 2023. China has captured close to two‑fifths of...
Daily Memo: Mediation Efforts, Oil Supplies for Cuba
Foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia met in Islamabad to explore diplomatic pathways for ending the Iran‑Saudi conflict. The quartet discussed forming a multilateral consortium to oversee commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, proposing a fee...
Ethiopia Lands $13bn in Deals, Dwarfing Kenya’s $2.9bn Haul
Ethiopia announced $13 billion in new investment deals at a conference in Addis Ababa, far outpacing Kenya’s recent $2.9 billion haul. The agreements cover manufacturing, agriculture, energy, construction and other strategic sectors, with a standout $10 billion renewable‑energy package from China’s Ming Yang Smart Energy...
How the Iran War Is Reshaping Kazakhstan’s Role in Eurasia
The Iran‑Russia war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Central Asian exporters to abandon the Southern Corridor. Kazakhstan’s Trans‑Caspian “Middle Corridor” has surged from 0.8 million to 4.5 million tons between 2020 and 2024, growing over 60 % in 2024 alone. The...
Kinshasa Launches Disarmament Push Against Rwanda Genocide-Linked Militia
The Democratic Republic of Congo’s army has begun a disarmament operation against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a militia linked to the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The push follows a US‑brokered peace deal renewed in Washington, where...
EU Duty Changes Are Coming. Are You Ready for July?
From 1 July 2026 the EU will scrap the €150 (≈ $165) de minimis exemption, imposing a €3 (≈ $3.30) duty on each imported item. The change targets low‑value parcels that have surged with cross‑border e‑commerce and aims to curb undervaluation. UK brands shipping directly...
Hormuz Closure Triggers ‘Havoc’ for Project Logistics Supply Chain
The near‑total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has slashed vessel transits by 97% in the past 25 days, halting all traffic on March 25. The paralysis is driving sky‑high insurance premiums, causing carriers to refuse quotes for cargo entering the...
Reeves Urges G7 to Reject Protectionism as Hormuz Crisis Escalates
The Strait of Hormuz blockade, now in its second month, has halted the flow of roughly 21 million barrels of oil per day—about 20% of global consumption—and disrupted 30% of the world’s nitrogen‑based fertilizer trade, sending Brent crude sharply higher. British...
Uganda Moves to Join WTO Fisheries Deal as Tanzania Holds Out
Uganda is accelerating its accession to the WTO fisheries subsidies agreement, with a cabinet paper now awaiting approval. The deal, which curbs $22 billion in harmful subsidies annually, promises technical assistance and grants for better fisheries management. Uganda’s lake‑based sector generated...
Mexico Economic Comments - March 2026
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, faces sharp criticism from The Economist for failing to deliver the structural reforms she pledged, opting instead for incremental tweaks. The publication highlights that despite external pressures such as the lingering US‑Mexico trade war, USMCA...
Outbound Traffic Outpaces Inbound; Strait Needs Two‑way Flow
We're managing to squeeze a few additional ships back out of the Strait of Hormuz, but as the Bloomberg chart below highlights far more are leaving (outbound) than returning (inbound). On one level that's obvious (who wants to go *into* the...
Daniel Yergin Warns of Economic Meltdown if Iran Conflict Persists
Pulitzer‑winning energy analyst Daniel Yergin warned that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an economic meltdown if it persists. He noted that 80% of oil and 90% of natural gas flowing through the strait head to Asia,...
International Business Briefs | Nigerians Face 65% Surge in Fuel Prices
Fuel prices in Nigeria have surged 65% as the newly built 650,000‑bpd Dangote refinery failed to offset market pressures from costly crude imports and debt‑linked export obligations. In the UK, mortgage approvals rose to 62,584 in February, outpacing forecasts, while...
Subscriber Alert. UPDATED: Investment Facilitation Blocked Again in Yaoundé
At the WTO Ministerial in Yaoundé, Cameroon, India single‑handedly blocked the inclusion of the 129‑member Investment Facilitation Agreement (IFA) into Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement, marking the twelfth failed attempt to formalise the plurilateral deal. While Turkey withdrew its objections...
Treasury Yields Slip as Trump Talks About Peace, Ahead of Labor Data
Treasury yields slipped as President Trump hinted at progress in peace talks and investors turned to upcoming labor data. The 10‑year yield fell to about 4.37% and the two‑year to 3.86% early, later adjusting to roughly 4.40% and 3.89% per...
Stagflation Looms as US GDP Slows to 0.7% and Inflation Stays Above 3%
U.S. economic data released this week showed fourth‑quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7% and consumer‑price inflation still running above 3% in January. Combined with soaring oil prices and rising Treasury yields, analysts warn the economy may be slipping into...
Investment Banks Keep Deal Flow Alive as Iran Conflict Fuels Energy Shock
Bloomberg says major investment banks continued to execute mergers, acquisitions and capital‑raising transactions despite the Iran‑Israel war driving oil above $100 a barrel and cutting Qatar LNG output by 17%. The resilience underscores the sector’s strategic role as markets grapple...
Hedge Funds Ramp Up Short Bets on U.S. Stocks, Shift to European Defensives
Hedge funds have intensified short‑selling on U.S. equities, posting the fastest net sell‑off since April 2025, while simultaneously boosting long positions in defensive European stocks. The move reflects heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict and a broader risk‑off tilt...
China’s Chance to Cement Great‑power Status Through Diplomacy
While Beijing is likely to remain cautious and avoid being drawn directly into the conflict, the situation nonetheless presents a strategic opening for the Chinese leadership to deliver on its long-standing pledge to “inject stability” into the global system. Should...
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."
Asian Stocks Plunge as Brent Hits $115, Iran Conflict Fuels Risk Aversion
Asian equity markets tumbled on Monday as Brent crude surged to $115 a barrel, the highest monthly level on record. The Nikkei 225 fell 4.5%, South Korea’s Kospi slipped 3.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.7%, reflecting heightened risk...
U.S. Corn Inspections Beat Forecasts; Soybeans Lag, China Leads Demand
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn export inspections topped all trade expectations, but soybeans fell slightly below. 46% of the inspected soybean cargoes were destined for China. https://t.co/qtmgF00LfJ
Gold Falls Despite Inflation; Real Rates Drive Moves
Gold can drop hard while inflation headlines stay hot. That’s not ‘gold is broken’. That’s real rates and margin calls. Correlations don’t die. They just take vacations. https://t.co/LB3g5NQWP9
Another per Capita Recession Looms for Australia
Australia’s real per‑capita GDP growth has been sliding for 25 years, reaching a historic low of 0.8 % annualised in 2025 – the weakest pace outside the pandemic period. The latest ABS data show a modest 0.4 % quarterly rebound in the December 2025...
Ground War Guarantees Disaster and Prolonged Insurgency
A ground war isn’t escalation—it’s a recipe for disaster, writes Rabobank's Stefan Koopman Regime change means occupation. Occupation means insurgency. Insurgency means years of loss. Iran isn’t Venezuela. This doesn’t end quickly. #IranWar #Geopolitics #Oil https://t.co/mwwBgWwDU4
Powell Claims Inflation Expectations Still Well Anchored
POWELL: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REMAIN WELL ANCHORED - Bloomberg. *Inflation expectations (breakevens), below. "Well anchored?" https://t.co/oWnwOzgMcY
Global Imbalances Are Back
Global current‑account imbalances have surged to their highest levels in 150 years, with surpluses becoming markedly more persistent. A new Bank of England staff paper attributes much of the excess to industrial‑policy programmes that suppress domestic consumption, especially where capital controls...
Powell: Fed Will Look Through Energy Shocks, Watch Expectations
Powell on Monday reiterates that the Fed typically look through energy shocks, but he warned that "a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations" This recent piece w/ @bencasselman explains why https://t.co/eabY4kFd9d @nytimes
The Dollar’s Secret Global Journey: Cash Hoards to Stablecoins
💵From Belarus vaults to Miami cash hubs, the U.S. dollar has a global life most of us never see. Former Fed economist, Ruth Judson, joins me on the podcast to unpack global cash hoards, counterfeit networks, and the rise...
US-India Trade
The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series show that U.S. exports and imports with India have risen steadily since the 1990s, yet they remain a modest slice of overall trade. As of January 2026, Indian-bound exports account for roughly 2.5%...
Powell Says Iran Dilemma Remains Unresolved, Impacts Unknown
Fed Chair Powell, speaking to a Harvard class, says re: Iran, "we will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here. We're not really facing it yet." "We don't know what the economic effects will be."
Fed's Miran: Rate Pause Stifles Job Growth, Misfires on Inflation
Fed’s Miran told us he thinks the Fed is holding back job growth by keeping rates on hold and wrongly fighting the last war (inflation)
Powell Warns Confidence Precedes Grasp of Rising Risks
Powell downplays dissent on the Fed's board and says you would expect disagreement when there are both downside employment and upside inflation risks that are growing. "Confidence is what you feel before you really understand the problem."
Euro Faces Steepest Quarterly Drop Since 2024
Euro is poised for worst quarter since 2024 as oil shock bites https://t.co/Z3N3DfLpbB via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/yjLvpdnvVF
Foreign Investment Drops Sharply One Year After Liberation Day
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
Hormuz Strait Events Differ From Administration's Claims
What’s really going on in the straight of Hormuz is NOT what the admin is saying
Trump Naively Praises Iran’s New Leaders, Predicts Oil Surge
Meanwhile Trump’s messaging is - Irans new leaders are so reasonable & oil will be flowing from everywhere in a few days. 🤦♀️
Energy Price Surge Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices had been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis. CPI...
Kharg Island's Role in US‑Iran Oil Tactics
Can the US "take the oil" from Iran? Does Kharg Island matter? And what can the GCC do about developing bypass pipelines? I discuss with @BeckyCNN @CNN
Yields Climb, Stocks Slip Despite Oil and VIX Peaks
i'm still looking at March 9th, 2026... 🧐 crude oil peaked... volatility $VIX peaked... but 10-year yields $TNX ignored oil/VIX & still rising... and stocks $SPX ignored oil/VIX & still falling... https://t.co/8DK3OPCAJa
War Triggers Divergent Market Moves: Stocks Fall, Oil Soars
How markets have performed since February 28 (start of the Iran war) 🔴 SP500 -7.5% 🔴 MAG 7 -6.5% 🔴 Gold -13% 🟢 Bitcoin +3% 🟢 (WTI) Oil +53% 🟢 (Brent) Oil +50% 🔴 10 yr US Treasury Yields ~+25–40 bps 🟢 VIX +50% So much winning https://t.co/YpeGMs8fpe
Oil Rises While Rate‑Hike
Oil up across the curve the past week and rate hike odds contracting in the back half of that oil rise feels ominous
Tanzania Tightens Borders to Halt Fuel Smuggling
"Tanzania is strengthening border controls to stop the smuggling of fuel to its fuel-strapped neighbors..." https://t.co/4B3f7ssGsi
Falling
Core running south of headline is a “tell.” Will it catch @federalreserve off sides if they misinterpret the message of demand destruction?
Restocking Signals Stockpiling, Not Sustainable Recovery
Does restocking = industrial recovery if no follow through foreseen? Philly Fed Mfg Delivery Times hit 4-year high of 18.9 in March, FUTURE Delivery Times’ -4.7 was 3-year low; 23.6 point spread a -2.0 z-score reinforcing restocking as did falling Expected...