Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Tuesday: Markets Volatile as Iran Conflict Goes On
The episode reviews volatile global markets amid the ongoing Iran conflict, noting a dip in U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields and mixed equity performance while oil prices stay elevated. ANZ economists discuss upcoming Australian credit growth data and New Zealand business confidence, highlighting early signs of moderation in housing credit and slower job growth. In a deep‑dive, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains that fuel subsidies across Asia could cost 0.4%‑1.3% of GDP and are likely sustainable for only three to four months before fiscal pressures force price hikes, which would spur inflation and strain public finances.
High‑Yield Spreads Below 400 Signal Market Bounce
The stock market is screaming fear. VIX at 31. The bond market? Shrugging. High-yield credit spreads are at 317 basis points — BELOW the 20-year average. One of these markets is wrong. If spreads stay below 400, we bounce. If they blow through 500, brace...
Red Sea Lessons Haunt Western Effort to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Western allies are wrestling with a new plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz after a costly, largely unsuccessful Red Sea operation against Yemen's Houthis. The Red Sea effort expended over $1 billion, sank four vessels, and left the route largely...
US Blocks Rare Earth Development, Forces Foreign Dependence
US rug pull on rare earth floors. They didn't even let US supply get built. Looks like the names are getting hit. I wonder where the US gov thinks supply with come from... Brazil? Rely...
Attacks on Mideast Aluminum Plants Threaten Supply Crisis
Iranian drones and missiles struck the Emirates Global Aluminium plant in Abu Dhabi and Aluminium Bahrain, causing significant damage to two of the Middle East’s largest aluminum smelters. The attacks sent LME aluminum futures up 6% to $3,401 per ton...
US LNG Plant Launches Amid Middle East Supply Crunch
New US LNG export project begins operations 🇺🇸🚢 The Golden Pass plant (a JV with Qatar & Exxon) just started LNG production at 1 of its 3 trains. First export expected from 2Q The world is scrambling for more US LNG as...
The Guardian View on Trump’s Iran War: Escalation without End | Editorial
The Guardian editorial warns that Donald Trump’s fifth week of war against Iran lacks a coherent strategy, with U.S. strikes and Iranian missile attacks creating a stalemate. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices above $80...
113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
The article visualizes 113 years of CPI‑adjusted WTI oil prices, highlighting both absolute levels and growth rates. It notes that the 2008 year‑on‑year surge of 640% was the largest, surpassing the 1979‑80 increase that foreshadowed the 1980 recession. However, month‑on‑month...
Analyzing Global Powers' Stance on Iran Conflict
As always, I had a ton of fun doing my friend and colleague @aarondmiller2's show #CarnegieConnects, especially with my @CarnegieEndow teammates @RosaBalfour and @AlexGabuev. Aaron asked us, how are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet partners, faring in the...
Red Sea AWRP up After Houthi Attack on Israel
War risk premiums in the Red Sea have risen following a Houthi missile strike on Israel, lifting the additional war risk premium (AWRP) to roughly 0.65‑0.75% of hull and machinery value. Insurers note that a portion of the charge—25‑50%—may be...
Trade Agreements Extend Europe’s Food Quality Rules Beyond Its Borders
The European Union is embedding its geographical indication (GI) system into major trade agreements, extending protected food‑quality standards to markets in Latin America, Oceania, Japan, Canada, China and India. Recent deals with Australia and the Mercosur bloc will recognize hundreds...
Natural Gas Spike Signals Crude Oil Slide to $50
US Natural Gas' 100% 1Q Pump-Then-Dump May Guide 2026 Crude Oil - The roughly 100% 1Q rise in the front US natural gas future, and reversal to minus 18% on March 27, may lead crude oil's way in 2026, as...
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 Isn’t for Trade Deficits, by Christine Abely
On February 20, the Trump administration announced temporary import tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a provision intended to address fundamental balance‑of‑payments crises. The article explains that Section 122 creates a mandatory presidential duty to impose a surcharge...
India Must Pursue Value-Driven Critical Minerals Diplomacy in Africa
The recent Strait of Hormuz disruption highlighted India’s vulnerability to energy chokepoints and underscored the need for a resilient critical‑minerals supply chain. A forthcoming CSEP paper proposes a value‑driven diplomacy with Africa, focusing on Zambia, Zimbabwe and Tanzania to secure...
Wellington-Altus' Thorne: 'Sell War, Buy Peace' And the Expansion That's Coming
In this episode, host Chuck Jaffe and guests—including Jim Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington‑Altus Private Wealth, and Vijay Maroglia, CIO of Regal Point Capital—debunk the panic surrounding the Iran‑related oil “terror premium” and AI hype, urging investors to "sell...
Fed Chair Must Remain Nonpartisan, Bipartisan Reappointment Essential
A question about the role of the vice chair for supervision led Powell to lay out his philosophy on how a Fed chair should operate more broadly (offered by way of explaining why he didn't want to get too involved...
US Holds $27.5T Net Position, Funding Global Needs
The BEA updated the US net international investment position last week for Q4 '25 and it stood at $27.5 trillion. That's the amount of assets foreigners own in the US vs what the US owns in the rest of the...
Fiscal Deficit Touches 80% of RE in April-February
India’s fiscal deficit for April‑February reached ₹12.5 lakh crore (≈ $151 billion), about 80 % of the revised estimate and lower than the ₹13.5 lakh crore (≈ $163 billion) recorded a year earlier. The shortfall represents 4.4 % of GDP, with the Finance Ministry targeting a 4.5 % ratio for FY26....
Transcript: Judd Kessler, Lucky by Design
Judd Kessler, a Wharton professor and author of *Lucky by Design*, explains how market design governs the allocation of scarce resources—from organ transplants and school seats to concert tickets and restaurant reservations. He illustrates that many everyday “luck” moments are...
The Real Risk Isn’t War- It’s What Comes Next
In this Macro Mondays episode, Mikkel Rostewald and Andreas dissect the ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict, weighing the likelihood of diplomatic resolution versus a broader military escalation. They examine the immediate market fallout—oil supply disruptions, the impact on by‑products like helium and...
DRC and Canada Strengthen Trade and Investment Partnership
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Canada deepened their trade partnership during a WTO ministerial meeting, announcing plans for a joint DRC‑Canada Economic Forum. Both sides highlighted private‑sector collaboration to boost bilateral trade and diversify the DRC’s economy. Canada pledged...
Ray Dalio Says Cash Is the Worst Place to Hide Money in 'Risky Times'
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that cash could be the worst place to hide money as markets enter a period of heightened risk. His comment, made during a recent interview, is likely to reshape asset‑allocation strategies for wealth managers and...
Oil Shock Sends S&P 500 Below Anchored VWAP, Igniting Risk-Off Week
A surge in oil prices sparked a risk-off market week, driving the S&P 500 below its anchored VWAP from April 2025 lows. The technical breach highlights heightened selling pressure and a shift in market structure as traders brace for further...
Private‑Equity Firms Target Asia’s $5 Trillion Healthcare Market to Bridge Funding Gap
Private‑equity firms, anchored by Quadria Capital’s $4.2 billion under management, are pouring capital into Asia’s $5 trillion healthcare market to offset a chronic public‑spending shortfall. The surge creates fresh opportunities for consulting firms to advise on strategy, operations and market entry across...
66 WTO Members Adopt E‑Commerce Agreement, Extending Duty Moratorium on Digital Trade
Sixty‑six World Trade Organization members formally adopted a baseline e‑commerce agreement, extending the moratorium on customs duties for cross‑border digital services. The deal, hailed as a milestone for global trade policy, comes amid ongoing WTO reform talks and divergent views...
Iran War Triggers Global Energy Crisis and Price Shock
The Iran war is now a global energy crisis. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, Asia is scrambling for oil/LNG—driving price shocks and geopolitical shifts. I spoke with Abishur Prakash about what comes next. https://youtu.be/lyr9tnT_-yU #EnergyCrisis #IranWar #OilPrices #LNG
How the Dominican Republic Can Escape the ‘Middle-Income Trap’
The Dominican Republic has leveraged three decades of political stability and institutional continuity to transition from an agrarian economy to a diversified, open market that now grows at roughly 5% annually—well above the Latin American average. This steady growth has...
President Sheinbaum Defends Mexico's Right to Supply Oil to Cuba
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum defended her nation’s right to ship oil to Cuba, framing the move as both humanitarian and commercial. Her comments followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent softening of the oil embargo on the island and the arrival...
China More Dependent on Liquid Fuels Than U.S.
China is less exposed to the energy shock than the US, writes @GoldmanSachs It mixes categories & gets the conclusions wrong @RnaudBertrand Electricity ≠ oil & gas Reserves ≠ supply Buffers ≠ independence This crisis is about liquids—and China is more dependent than...
Dubai’s Hedge Fund Boom, Property Surge in Focus as Iran War Continues
Hedge funds are markedly increasing their exposure to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, signaling renewed confidence in the UAE’s financial hub despite the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict. At the same time, property developers in the Emirates have launched a concerted outreach to...
Gold's Surge Signals Return of Safe‑Haven Appeal
Bull Trap or the safe heaven status is back ? Gold has been on the rise for the past few days meanwhile Geopolitical tensions & inflation fears are still on the rise. Let me share my 2 cents on what's happening &...
IMF Warns Iran Conflict Fuels Global Inflation, Slows Growth
IMF says the Iran war means higher prices, slower growth worldwide https://t.co/xsjyA1lVNX via @jdorosario https://t.co/RqEIMO88cd
South Korean Unification Minister Uses North Korea’s Formal Name
South Korean Unification Minister Chung Dong‑young referred to the North by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, signalling a shift toward a "peaceful two‑state framework." President Lee Jae‑myung’s END Initiative separates denuclearisation from engagement, emphasizing exchange and...
Inflation Tax Hits All Assets, Unbalancing ‘Balanced’ Portfolios
If both stocks and bonds can’t catch a bid, the message is simple: inflation risk is a tax on EVERYTHING. That’s why ‘balanced’ can feel unbalanced. https://t.co/TSSid8H3g0
Recent Fed Chairs Prioritize Stability, Jobs, Then Inflation
it goes 1) financial stability, 2) unemployment, 3) inflation under the last few Chairs, at least
Tariff Refunds: Court Expands Scope to Include Finally Liquidated Entries
The U.S. Court of International Trade broadened a prior order, directing Customs and Border Protection to refund tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for all import entries, including those already finally liquidated. The amendment follows the...
Reopening Hormuz Won’t End Gulf’s Kill Zone
All the middle east, geopolitics and energy experts keep talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz as if that solves the problem. It doesn’t. The Strait is just the front door. The entire Persian Gulf is now a kill zone. 1/2 https://t.co/ZHp06lZzYS
Numbers Reveal the Real Stakes in Great Power Competition
When it comes to great power competition, it’s always good to look at the numbers. A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/oDxkPFvNS7
Are India-US Ties Really Back on Track?
In March 2026 a series of high‑level U.S. visits to New Delhi – including Assistant Secretary Paul Kapur, Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau and Under Secretary Elbridge Colby – kept diplomatic momentum alive. The visits produced a $43 million Boeing contract for P‑8...
Rial Strengthens 9% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. AN IMPORTANT FACT THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA HAS FAILED TO REPORT ON. https://t.co/Dlt04mOOmJ
US Dollar Reserve Share Hits 31‑Year Low Amid Diversification
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
What Was the 1970s Oil Crisis, and Are We Heading for Something Worse?
The 1970s oil crisis, sparked by an Arab embargo, caused oil prices to quadruple and triggered a global recession. Today, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict threatens to cut roughly 20% of world oil supply,...
Debt Levels Make 1970s Stagflation Comparison Unrealistic
Everyone comparing today to 1970s stagflation is being too optimistic. In 1980, debt-to-GDP was 26%. Today it's 122%. There is no Volcker option when you owe $39 trillion. This isn't stagflation. It's a depression in slow motion. https://t.co/V2YAlnMATp
Powell Unconcerned About Inflation, Signals Hard Assets
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Stagflation Squeezes Equities: Low Returns, High Volatility
Stagflation is a bad environment for equities, with low (real) returns and high volatility GS Europe https://t.co/QhgQfFdqYh
Stagflation Threat Returns as Euro Growth Slows, Inflation Rises
GS Europe: Stagflation risk re‑enters the debate. We have downgraded GDP growth in 2026 by around 0.7pp in the Euro area We have raised our end-2026 inflation forecast by around 1.4pp in the Euro area https://t.co/E3drISW5P1
TLT Rally May Mask Inflation Risk, Not a Safe Haven
$TLT can rally in a recession and still be a bad trade if inflation expectations won’t chill. Duration isn’t a safe haven when the bond market stops believing. https://t.co/Rb9uYrLUHk
Navigating Inflation Amid Persistent Supply Chain Uncertainty
This growing supply chain uncertainty plus past few years of above-target inflation makes it increasingly hard to "look through" supply shocks. Here is one way to navigate this inflationary minefield: https://t.co/ihDcQmhv7a
Supply Chain Shift: How Far Upstream Does De‑Chinaing Reach?
Call it supply chain shifts or derisking. Moving retail and manufacturing supply away from China to other countries. Given the tiers of suppliers and size, how deep into the upstream supply chain does the change go?
Powell Refuses to Entertain Warsh's Rate‑cut Pitch
Powell is asked by an undergrad what he thinks about Kevin Warsh trying to come into the Fed and cut rates in the current environment. Powell: "That’s not something I’m going to swing at, that pitch."