Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Markets Bet Big on a Quick End to the Iran War
President Trump signaled he may end U.S. strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, prompting a wave of market optimism. Brent crude briefly slipped below $100 a barrel, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures turned positive and 10‑year Treasury yields eased. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the sentiment, saying Washington is nearing its nuclear‑non‑proliferation goal. Nonetheless, analysts caution that the geopolitical fallout could extend well beyond an abrupt cease‑fire.
Could Fed Liquidity Plunge By Half?
The Federal Reserve has outlined a plan to shrink its balance sheet by roughly $1.7 trillion, effectively halving the liquidity it provides to markets. The proposal assumes a high degree of coordination between the Treasury and the Fed, as well as...
Javier Milei’s Inflation ‘Miracle’ in Argentina Is a Warning to the World, Not a Blueprint
Argentine inflation dropped from 211% in 2023 to about 31.5% by the end of 2025 under President Javier Milei. The decline stems from a sharp contraction in real wages and a collapse of industrial activity, with over 2,000 firms shutting and...
India and Its Service Sector
The Economic Survey 2025‑26 underscores that India’s services sector now accounts for more than half of gross value added and drives the bulk of export growth, posting a 9.4% compounded annual growth rate versus 6.4% for merchandise. India has become...
Iraqi Civilians Are Paying the Price of the Iran War
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is spilling into Iraq, where rockets and drones have struck near Baghdad and Erbil, disrupting daily life. Oil exports are faltering after Iranian attacks on tankers and a force‑majeure declaration on foreign‑operated fields, threatening the...
Iran War Forces Small Dairies to Hedge Like Multinationals
Small and medium-sized dairy firms are turning to corporate‑level hedging tools as the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran drives volatile fuel and commodity prices. Attara reports a 300% jump in hedging activity among agricultural SMEs, with swaps becoming the preferred instrument...
U.S. Within 'Weeks' Of Oil Shortages if War in Iran Continues: Eric Nuttall
Eric Nuttall, senior partner at Ninepoint Partners, warned that the United States could face oil shortages within weeks if the war involving the U.S., Israel and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed. The conflict has already removed more than...
BofA Sees Near‑4% PCE, Higher Prices Through 2027
BofA on inflation outlook: "Headline PCE is now expected to surge ... close to 4% this quarter. ... we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast ... i)higher food inflation...
US May Waive Iran Sanctions to Enable Hormuz Toll Payments
Iran is still heavily sanctioned by the US, which complicates the payment of any tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, both today or in a future where Tehran maintains some control of the Strait Wouldn't be surprised to see...
Toyota Reduces Middle East Exports Due to War
Toyota Motor Corp trimmed its Middle East vehicle shipments by roughly 20,000 units in March, citing disruptions from the ongoing Iran war. The cut represents a notable dip in the automaker’s regional export volume. Company officials warned that if hostilities...
Japan Business Mood Improves as BOJ Weighs Rate Hike Chance
Japan’s large‑manufacturer business sentiment rose for a fourth straight quarter in the January‑March 2026 period, according to the Bank of Japan’s latest survey. The improvement comes as the BOJ signals it may raise interest rates later this year, a shift...
EU Proposes Tweaks to Carbon Market Reserve in Bid to Avoid Volatility
The European Commission proposed adjusting the EU Emissions Trading System to stop automatically cancelling excess permits, instead keeping them in a special reserve as a price‑volatility buffer. The move follows pressure from member states, notably Italy, as soaring energy costs...
Why Europe Is Unlikely to Face an Inflation Surge
The European Central Bank (ECB) missed early warning signs of inflation in 2021‑22, prompting a delayed and aggressive tightening cycle. A new energy-price shock triggered by the Iran war has revived concerns, but the ECB now signals a faster, more...
Russia Could Emerge as Global South's Partner Amid Iran War, Scholar Says
A Russian scholar argues that the US‑Israel war on Iran is threatening the Global South, especially as oil prices surge. He warns the conflict could normalize forceful interventions, destabilizing developing nations. Russia, he suggests, could step in as an alternative...
Iran War: What African Countries Can Do to Get Through the Crisis and Emerge in a Better Place
The US‑Israel war on Iran is destabilising global oil, gas, fertiliser and food markets and has triggered sharp depreciations of African currencies against the dollar. Rising interest rates and tighter foreign‑financing conditions are compounding debt pressures across the continent. Experts...
Metal Movers: How the Iran Conflict Is Impacting Steel Markets
The Metal Movers episode examines how the Iran‑Israel conflict has disrupted global steel markets, from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to direct strikes on Iranian steel plants. Reporters detail the immediate supply shock—loss of roughly 500,000‑600,000 t/month of Iranian...
Trump Says US Will Leave Iran ‘Quickly’ and Return if Needed
President Donald Trump told Reuters the United States will exit the Iran war "pretty quickly" and may return for limited "spot hits" if necessary. He used the remarks to preview a primetime address, while also lambasting NATO and hinting at...
Thailand Seeks LNG Supplies From Malaysia Due to Middle East Conflict
Thailand is seeking additional LNG supplies from Malaysia to offset disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, which currently provides about 5%‑10% of its imports. The country receives two to three LNG vessels from the region each month, and officials...
World Briefs | Argentina Postpones Fuel Tax Hike to Offset Global Price Pressures
Argentina’s government postponed a one‑month increase in fuel and carbon‑dioxide taxes to the end of April, aiming to blunt global price pressures sparked by the Iran war. Russia rejected Ukraine’s proposal for an Easter cease‑fire on energy infrastructure, calling it...
India’s Punjab Exporters Propose Barter Deal Between Basmati Rice and Iran’s Crude Oil to Offset War Losses
India’s Punjab Rice Millers Exporters Association has asked the government to negotiate a barter deal with Iran, swapping premium basmati rice for Iranian crude oil with payments in rupees. The proposal follows steep financial losses for exporters after the US‑Israel‑Iran...
Daily Memo: France-Japan Meeting, Russia-Armenia Talks
France and Japan signed a strategic roadmap to deepen cooperation on critical minerals during President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Tokyo. The agreement includes securing raw material supplies for a rare‑earths refinery in southern France, where a Japanese state‑owned firm holds...
How Will the Energy Crisis Impact You? Here’s Everything You Need to Know
President Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran has led Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 30% of the world’s oil flow. The closure, combined with possible Red Sea blockades, has driven oil and jet‑fuel prices...
10 Must-Knows From Robert Maersk Uggla on the New Rules of Global Shipping
Global shipping is shifting from growth scarcity to growth management, as volumes rise while margins compress and uncertainty spikes. Geopolitical disruptions, especially heightened U.S. tariffs, are reshaping trade routes and forcing carriers to adapt to a multipolar world. Robert Maersk...
Some Good News for a Change: Real Retail Sales Rebounded in Febuary
U.S. retail sales for February were released three weeks late but showed a modest rebound. Nominal sales rose 0.6% month‑over‑month, translating to a 0.3% gain in real terms after accounting for 0.3% inflation. On a year‑over‑year basis, real retail sales...
Iran Conflict Scenarios Push Oil Prices Above Pre‑War Levels
My rough Iran War scenario probabilities over the next month are: 🌮 40% unilateral TACO, Iran maintains some hybrid control of Strait 🪖 30% boots on the ground, strait stays blocked, spiked risk of more upstream attacks, global economy withers 🤷🏻♂️...
Cuba, the Oil Blockade, and the Internal Contradictions of Trump’s Policies in the Western Hemisphere
The Trump administration adopted a "hybrid economic warfare" model, deploying naval blockades such as the Anatoly Kolodkin tanker to choke Cuba’s oil imports. This tactic sits between traditional sanctions and outright conflict, aiming to pressure Havana without a formal declaration of...
Oil Shocks Fade; Markets Typically Rebound Within Months
Military conflicts and oil shocks are nothing new. We’ve been through this many times. Yes, they create uncertainty and shake things up, but historically oil has come back down within a few months, and stocks often start moving higher not...
US‑Israel Iran Conflict Boosts Chinese Exporters’ Global Market Share
Ah, well, nevertheless: "The US and Israel’s war on Iran is expected to help China’s exporters gain global market share from rivals in countries hit harder by high energy prices and supply chain shocks" https://t.co/FzaZnRiklq https://t.co/oA3t3jaaS4
Iran War Triggers Global Fuel, Fertilizer, Helium and Aluminum Shortages, Sending Prices Soaring
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has ignited a multi‑commodity crisis, with illicit diesel siphoning in India, Brent crude up 60%, urea prices up 30%, and helium spot prices jumping 70‑100%. The fallout is rattling supply chains from fuel to food and high‑tech...
Rising Input Costs Push Index Up, Inflation Near 4%
This index "has now risen by nearly 20 points in just two months, as higher energy prices have come amid rising costs of other raw materials. On past form, it now looks consistent with headline inflation rising to 4% in...
Copper Demand Set to Surge Across Infrastructure, Tech, and Defense
Road Ahead 1. Data Centers, $2.5T Capex. 2. $2T US Power Grid Rebuild - copper, aluminum. 3. Currency Debasement: USA $1.9% Defecit / 6.2% of GDP vs 3% average last 40 years. 4. Re-Build: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, Israel - copper. 5. Robotics -...
Can China Grow From Within?
China’s new 2026‑30 Five‑Year Plan pivots the economy toward a consumption‑led growth model, seeking to anchor expansion domestically amid rising geopolitical volatility. The strategy emphasizes expanding household demand and deepening capital‑market development to reduce reliance on external markets. While Chinese...
Trump’s Coffee Tariff Inflates U.S. Prices Like a Sales Tax
Thank Trump's 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee for the outrageous price you’re paying for your morning brew. TRUMP’S TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/o9JpKTsjDV
Supply‑chain Disruptions Are only Now Fueling Inflation
…and the inflation from global supply chain breakdowns that have already begun have likely only just begun being reflected. 😳
Dow, Nasdaq Slip Into Correction; Analysts Tout QQQ and XLE Bets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory after recent gains, leading market strategists to recommend the Invesco QQQ Trust and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF as defensive plays. Analysts cite the correction, oil‑price volatility...
Four Key Signals Reveal True State of Oil Markets
This is a great read about how to think about what's happening with oil and Hormuz - and ultimately with the world economy. The headlines are all over the place, but these 4 signals can tell you what's really happening.
Commodities Up 21% YoY in May, Rising Since 2020
at your Easter dinner this weekend, when they tell you that commodities have been surging because of the Iran war, just tell'em they're wrong and commodities have been rising since 2020... in fact, May '24, they reached an unusually quick...
UK Food Inflation to Hit 9% by End of Year, Trade Body Forecasts
UK food inflation is now projected to reach between 9% and 10% by year‑end, up sharply from the 3% forecast made in September. The Food and Drink Federation attributes the surge to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which...
Salient Prices Like Eggs Drive Inflation Expectations
.@johnarnold it is not only tone deaf, it ignores the important academic work on “salient prices.” People attach more meaning to things they buy frequently. Take eggs, less than 1% of the consumer basket, big impact on inflation expectations. Gas...
Unprecedented Job Losses Exceed Great Recession Streak
"We've never seen anything like this…even during the Great Recession the most we had seen was 11 consecutive. It's not NO jobs created in 2025. Jobs were DESTROYED." https://t.co/TEyHYMKiKA #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/7AjP28JOhM
Iran Rejects Trump's Claim, Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed
Iranian Republic Media: The Strait of Hormuz will not open based on Trump's absurd claims: Bloomberg
USDA's Power Amplified Amid Emerging Global Food Crisis
The USDA is one of the most powerful institutions affecting domestic and global food supplies. Especially given the global food and commodity crisis that’s emerging… Perhaps not the best time for crass porn puns
Post‑crisis: Labor Market Still Harsher for Low‑skill Workers
The crisis is over. Can we go back to understanding the labor market as generally worse for less educated workers now?
Podcast Deep Dive: Market Outlook on Gold, Rates, Tech
We were overdue for a "What Are We Doing" @OnTheTapePod episode. @Seawolfcap & @VD718 join me and we discuss our thoughts on the markets, including $GLD $FNMA $XLE $GOOG #RATES #USDEBT #FED & more. We are spending more time over on...
Household Wealth-to-Income Ratios Near Historic Peaks Globally
Household net worth as a share of income stands close to all time highs in the US, Japan and Australia --Goldman https://t.co/lb65bEX2Ii
US Imports Return to Pre‑Election Levels Despite Front‑Running Effects
I think Marvin (@ThematicMarkets) is reasoning too much from accounting identities here -- and still not adjusting enough for the enormous impact front running had on all US external variables in 2025. Let's start with imports -- they are basically back...
Trump Threatens NATO Exit as Iran War Looms
Trump Says U.S. May Exit Iran War Soon and Threatens to Quit NATO, as Oil Crisis Escalates. A global economic mess ahead? Is Putin smiling if US leaves NATO? https://t.co/wbm30dgf7R
Iran’s New Leader, Same Regime, Strait Reopens
Probably not important bc who sweats the details in war or diplomacy... but Iran's current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, assumed office in July 2024. New Supreme Leader, same president (and regime) as before. Also this morning we appear focused on the Strait reopening...
Panama-Flagged Vessels Lead China Detentions, Possible Retaliation
Panama-Flagged Ships Dominate China Detentions in Sudden March Spike. A coinkydink? Or China payback for the Panama supreme court stopping CK Hutchinson terminal acquisitions in Panama? https://t.co/M5mCoJi0jn
Korea Posts $25B March Trade Surplus on Chip Boom
Crazy March trade surplus for Korea ($25b a month, $300b annualized) Strong chip exports continued. And presumably a bunch of expected tankers didn't arrive so fuel demand was met out of inventory 1/2 https://t.co/NGcasg9i4v