Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
The Energy Superidiot Strikes Back
Gas prices on the U.S. East Coast have stabilized at roughly $10 per gigajoule as the regional gas export cartel continues to prioritize domestic supply. The author labels this a resurgence of “gas idiocy,” implying the cartel’s actions are intentional rather than accidental. Despite broader market volatility, the local market remains well‑supplied, averting immediate price spikes. The piece highlights ongoing tension between export ambitions and domestic energy security.
Trump’s Vague Iran Remarks Spark War‑trade Market Swing
Trump’s live 20 mins speech over. He opened saying Iran is decimated. Didn’t say if US is withdrawing war. •Brent Oil rose again by 4% •Korea and Japan stocks lower by 1-3% •USD up slightly •Gold lower by 3% Total opposite of yesterday’s performance. War...
China Sees US‑Israeli Clash on Iran as Strategic Boon
China sees the US-Israeli war on Iran as a strategic gift. The great power, the US, is making enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Napoleon famously said, ‘Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.' https://t.co/tWhTBmSIBr
Why Are Businesses in Japan Preparing to Raise Prices?
Japan’s March Tankan survey shows a modest rebound in business sentiment, with the manufacturers' index rising to +17 – the strongest since 2021 – while corporate inflation expectations have climbed to 2.6% for the coming year. The surge in expectations...
Trump Predicts Hormuz Opening as Brent Spikes 2%
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will "open up naturally" Brent oil prices rise nearly 2% (a session high for the day) https://t.co/7fvQPaw1Bv
Trump Attributes Gas Price Surge to Iranian Attacks
TRUMP: "Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home. This short term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and...
Peru‑Brazil Bioceanic Railway Faces Backlash over Amazon Impact, Analysis Flags 15 Protected Areas
The Peru‑Brazil Bioceanic Railway, awarded to a Chinese firm in January 2026, has ignited fierce criticism after a joint study identified 15 protected natural areas and almost 2,000 communities at risk. Experts say the route threatens the Amazon’s biodiversity and...
NY Vintner Grabs US Wine Stocks to Dodge Tariffs
JUST IN: A New York vintner is seizing US wine stocks to evade Trump's tariffs.
War Boosts Iran's Nuclear Weapon Prospects, Says Mearsheimer
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Pres. Trump and Netanyahu's FAILED war goals: “The chances that Iran will get a nuclear weapon have increased significantly as a result of this war.” https://t.co/ZvNgg6aqnl
No Need for a Rate Hike Unless Inflation Spikes: Economists
Indian economists briefed the Reserve Bank of India that a rate hike is unnecessary as long as inflation stays within the 2‑6% tolerance band. The discussion, held amid the West Asia war and soaring Brent crude at $110‑$120 per barrel,...
Business Cycle Indicators – Data Before the War
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee released updated coincident indicators covering nonfarm payroll, monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, and freight services, all normalized to January 2025. Preliminary benchmark revisions show a modest slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth and a deceleration...
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Cuts 500M Barrels, Lifts Prices 40%
JUST IN: Iran's dominance in the Strait of Hormuz has withheld around 500 million barrels of oil from the market, boosting prices by about 40%.
Tariff Refunds and Tariff Investigations
Customs and Border Protection is finalizing an automated tariff‑refund portal, now 65‑85% complete, with payouts expected by late April and a total refund pool of roughly $166 billion after the Supreme Court deemed the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional. At the same time,...
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Markets Moving Cautiously Higher Ahead of Trumps Address on Iran and the Fact that a Number...
Asian markets edged higher on cautious optimism ahead of President Trump’s upcoming address on the Iran conflict, while the long Easter weekend will shut several exchanges, limiting liquidity. Regional data showed modest gains in Australia, Japan and South Korea, with...
USTR Flags ‘Widespread’ Philippine Customs Corruption
The U.S. Trade Representative’s 2026 National Trade Estimate flags pervasive corruption within the Philippines’ Bureau of Customs, citing 100% inspections, erratic fee assessments, and delayed processing. While the Philippine government has digitized many customs procedures, the report says transparency and...
Bank Loans Grow Faster but Middle East Turmoil Poses Major Risk
Bank lending in the Philippines accelerated in February, with large‑bank loan balances reaching roughly $257 billion, a 9.5% year‑over‑year increase and slightly faster than January’s 9.3% pace. Business loans drove most of the growth, climbing 8.6% to about $216 billion, while consumer...
Manufacturing Activity Falters to 3-Month Low Due to Middle East Crisis
The Philippine manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.3 in March, a three‑month low and the first decline since December, as the Middle East war dampened export demand and spiked oil costs. While the index stayed above the 50‑point growth threshold, new...
The Overlooked Workforce that Could Boost Australia’s Economy
Martin Parkinson, Macquarie University vice‑chancellor and former Treasury secretary, will use a National Press Club address to push for sweeping economic reform aimed at averting stagflation in Australia. He will focus on overhauling the skilled migration system to enlarge the...
Beyond Oil: The Macroeconomic Impact of Commodity Supply Disturbances
A new CEPR paper shows that supply disruptions in non‑oil commodities—metals, grains, livestock—affect inflation and industrial production as strongly as traditional oil shocks. Using textual analysis of over one million news articles, the authors construct daily supply‑demand proxies for 20...
From World War Trade to Domino Regionalism: The Emergent Global Trading Order
In April 2025 the United States unleashed sweeping tariffs and China responded with export controls, creating a “World War Trade” that shattered the post‑World‑II rules‑based system. While the US‑China clash intensified, the other 75 % of global trade—countries responsible for three‑quarters of...
Gulf War Triggers Asian Price, Debt, Scarcity Crisis
In this article, “how the Gulf’s war is becoming Asia’s crisis too,” The Economist magazine analyzes the three main transmission channels: “prices, debt and scarcity.” #economy #asia #middleeastwar #growth #inflation #debt @theeconomist
Trump Tariffs Live Updates: Trump Announces 50% Tariffs on Any Country Supplying Weapons to Iran
President Trump announced a 50 % secondary tariff on any nation that supplies weapons to Iran, taking effect immediately. The duty joins a broader trade strategy that already imposes a 100 % tariff on patented pharmaceuticals (with carve‑outs) and maintains 50 % rates...
Who Pays for the Pilbara Killer?
The article examines the rising cost pressures on Pilbara’s iron‑ore export chain, dubbing the issue the “Pilbara killer.” Higher freight rates are eroding profit margins for the ferrous complex, even as China’s purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) show a tentative rebound....
Stocks Fall, Crude Surges as War-End Optimism Ebbs: Markets Wrap
U.S. equities and bonds slipped on April 1 as President Donald Trump’s televised remarks failed to calm market nerves about the Middle East conflict. The Nasdaq‑100 dropped 1.6% and the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, driven by weakness in large‑cap tech and...
Malaysia’s Economy Expanded by 5.2% in 2025, Supported by Broad-Based Growth Across All Major Sectors
Malaysia's economy expanded 5.2% in 2025, slightly above the 5.1% pace of 2024, driven by a 5.5% rise in services, 4.5% manufacturing growth and a 12.2% construction surge, supporting a GDP of roughly $400 bn. Early 2026 data show the Industrial...
Jordan’s Regional Connectivity Begins in Riyadh
Jordan is positioning itself as a regional trade hub by leveraging deepening Saudi investment, which now exceeds $15 billion, and a series of bilateral agreements signed in Riyadh. Trade between the two countries grew 19% in the first half of 2025,...
Interview with GoldRepublic
Alasdair Macleod warns that the escalating conflict with Iran could ignite the endgame of the global fiat currency system, linking energy disruption to soaring bond yields, collapsing credit and a broader monetary crisis. He argues that bond markets now provide...
FirstFT: Chinese Government Bonds Resilient Amid Global Debt Sell-Off
Chinese government bonds have shown unexpected resilience as global investors retreat from debt markets amid rising rates and geopolitical uncertainty. Yield spreads narrowed relative to comparable sovereigns, and capital inflows from domestic banks and foreign investors offset broader sell‑offs. The...
Alcohol, 'Buy Canadian' Policy Flagged by U.S. as Trade Irritants: Report
The U.S. Trade Representative’s annual report flags Canada’s provincial liquor‑control rules and the federal “Buy Canadian” procurement policy as major trade irritants. It also highlights punitive tariffs on U.S. dairy, including 245% on cheese and 298% on butter, which hinder...
Trump to Overhaul Steel, Aluminium Tariffs, Lifting Effective Import Costs
The Trump administration is preparing a major overhaul of the Section 232 steel and aluminium tariff regime, proposing a flat 25% duty on the full customs value of finished goods containing these metals. While the headline rate is lower than the...
Hormuz Closure Amplifies Global Trade, Inflation, Financial Strain
Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance Latest @UNCTAD report on Hormuz 1⃣Energy corridor halted: The Strait of Hormuz remains “practically closed,” disrupting a critical share of global oil and gas flows. 2⃣Trade losing momentum: Global merchandise trade is...
Strong Economic Data and Peace Hopes Cut Recession Odds
Solid eco data released this morning.. war resolution hopes... much lower recession odds @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/5VMb1dBm0q
Iran War Squeezes African Countries
U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran are sending shockwaves across Africa, where soaring energy costs are hitting consumers and exporters alike. Nigeria’s gasoline prices have jumped 65%, Kenya’s tea shipments are stuck in ports, and South Africa has cut fuel taxes to...
Satirical Book Chronicles Year of US Tariff Chaos
In honor of tomorrow's Liberation Day anniversary, I worked with Claude to draft a pretend book about the insane-but-totally-real things that happened over the last year of US "emergency" tariff chaos. Here's the first cut: https://t.co/1srdrUh4Gz
Raimondo Discusses Chips, AI, and US‑Europe Strategy
Really enjoyed chatting with former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimando today @CFR_org. Talked chips, CHIPS, China, AI, US-Europe relations and more. Find it on the feed next week https://t.co/zslTYa4yH1
US Gasoline Prices Surge Past $4 per Gallon Amid Iran Conflict, Fueling Inflation Fears
GasBuddy data show the U.S. national average for gasoline climbed to $4 a gallon, the highest level since August 2022, after President Trump’s Feb. 28 attack on Iran sparked a $1.05 one‑month jump. The surge is tightening household budgets and stoking...
Tariffs Prove Economists Right: Economy Slumps
"Most economists predicted that the economy’s performance would be negatively affected [by the tariffs]. Thus far data overwhelmingly indicate that is what has happened." https://t.co/TXnARw94Md https://t.co/mKF3Gb7Cg2
Trump's Talent Tariff Fails, Costs Rise, Legal Battles
My new Capitolism @thedispatch reviews another poorly-designed Trump tariff that had a chaotic rollout, imposed major economic costs, failed to achieve its objective, & spurred legal challenges. But this one is on foreign talent. "Trump's Other Tariff" https://t.co/8uDH4VwDDJ
Indonesia Pushes Renewable Transition as Oil Spikes Above $100, Tightening Logistics Costs
Indonesia, a net oil importer of 1.5 million barrels per day, is urging faster renewable adoption after oil prices breached $100 per barrel, a shock that could add up to $3 billion to its fiscal deficit and pressure logistics costs. Policymakers argue...
Europe Readies Red Sea Force as Houthis Threaten Bab El-Mandeb
European Red Sea Task Force Ready For Attacks Amid Fears Houthis Could Close Bab el-Mandeb Strait Concerns grow that the Iranian-backed rebels could close the waterway, drastically exacerbating the global oil crisis and opening a new front. https://t.co/aVVe6CgGk5
Inc Mag: “The Economy’s Biggest Strength Has Turned Into a Confusing Risk”
DataTrek co‑founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe warn that the prevailing belief in a recession‑proof U.S. economy is becoming a hidden risk. They argue that capital markets—from Treasuries to small‑cap stocks—are built on the assumption of endless growth, which breeds...
Two‑Thirds of Americans Demand Quick End to Iran War
According to a new Ipsos poll, 66% of Americans say the US should end its involvement in the Iran conflict quickly. THE US PUBLIC IS TURNING ON TRUMP, THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/tRVyc22FJC
US Farmers Question Argentine Corn Flow to China
Corn from Argentina to China. What do American farmers think? And domestic transportation and ports?
IMF Flags Iran War as Asymmetric Global Shock; GCC Buffers Growth While Emerging Markets Brace
The IMF warned that the Iran war is delivering a global but asymmetric shock, bolstering Gulf Cooperation Council economies as a growth anchor while exposing emerging markets to heightened inflation and balance‑of‑payments stress. Malaysia’s central bank lifted its 2026 growth...
S&P Barely Down 4% Despite Multiple Crises
The S&P is down less than 4% in 2026. This is despite a war, an oil spike, extreme levels of anxiety about AI disrupting every industry on earth, rising interest rates, private credit worries, and big tech companies moving either...
Daily Energy Report
India’s petroleum product exports to Southeast Asia hit a record high in March 2026. The surge came even as the nation’s total petroleum product shipments fell that month. Historically stable seasonal patterns were overridden by heightened regional demand, pushing volumes...
Lapse in Key Digital Trade Measure Undermines Economic Growth, Innovation
The World Trade Organization failed to extend the two‑year “Moratorium on Customs Duties on Electronic Transmissions” at its Yaoundé ministerial, allowing the measure to lapse. The moratorium has shielded digital goods, software services and semiconductor‑related data flows from tariffs for...
Iran Sees Conflict as Chance to Expel US Influence
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's position in the war: "Iran is seeing these events... as an opportunity to change the whole geopolitics of West Asia. To invert it completely, to remove the US... and its whole infrastructure of finance...
Iran Threatens Major US Companies in the Middle East Creating New Risk for Crypto
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that, starting April 1, it will target a list of U.S. multinationals operating in the Middle East, including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla, Boeing, JPMorgan, Oracle, Nvidia and others. Many of these firms form...
Sen Warren Accuses White House of Using Tariffs to Help Big Tech
Senator Elizabeth Warren accuses the White House of using Trump-era tariffs to shield big‑tech firms while harming U.S. manufacturers. She argues that exemptions let companies like Elon Musk’s xAI evade foreign regulations, citing the Grok AI chatbot’s deep‑fake scandal. Warren...