Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
PM’s Expectations for Middle East Conflict: ‘Economic Shocks Will Be with Us for Months’
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned that the economic fallout from the US‑Israel war with Iran will reverberate across Australia for months. He said price pressures will appear at supermarkets, fuel stations and in the cost structures of small businesses and farms. While Australia is not a combatant, the government expects tighter supply chains and higher commodity costs to affect everyday Australians. Albanese called for a collective, "Australian way" response to navigate the uncertainty.
Bullock Moves to Arrest Systemic Gouging of Payments
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock announced a ban on merchant surcharging for card payments. The decision follows a two‑decade review of Australia’s electronic payments market, which regulators say has been exploited by banks and multinational schemes. The ban...
Economist Warns: War's Hidden Costs Outweigh Oil Prices
Yes, I'm an economist. And yes, I'll talk about oil and gas prices. But still, I wonder whether (and why) we're avoiding talking about the bigger costs of war.
Breakeven Job Growth May Be Slightly Negative, Says Dallas Fed
Dallas Fed: Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative. Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been...
US Spirits Exports Decline 3.8% in 2025
U.S. spirits exports fell 3.8% in 2025 to $2.37 billion, driven by sharp drops in Canada and the European Union as trade bans and tariff threats took hold. Excluding Canada, exports rose 2.5%, showing resilient demand in other regions. Whiskey remained...
Trump Says He Is ‘Absolutely’ Considering Withdrawing US From Nato
President Donald Trump announced he is "absolutely" considering withdrawing the United States from NATO after European allies declined to join the US‑Israeli war against Iran. The stance marks the most aggressive anti‑NATO rhetoric of his administration and has sparked warnings...
From Theory to Reality: Evaluating the U.S.-Ukrainian Minerals Deal
The United States and Ukraine have launched a U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, injecting an initial $150 million to develop Ukraine’s critical mineral assets. The fund is governed by a six‑member board—three Americans and three Ukrainians—aiming to channel private and public capital...
US Gulf Coast Tanker Availability Drops as Asia, Europe Seek to Replace Middle East Supply
U.S. Gulf Coast oil tanker availability has plunged, falling 41% in the past month as Asian and European refiners replace Middle Eastern supply disrupted by the Iran‑related war in the Strait of Hormuz. Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) numbers have...
Republican Senator Calls Chinese Cars A ‘Cancer,’ Vowing Stricter Ban
Republican Senator Bernie Moreno announced plans to broaden the U.S. ban on Chinese electric vehicles, targeting not only the cars themselves but also associated software, components, and joint‑venture partnerships. The proposal would reinforce the existing 100% tariff regime and aim...
Build Realistic Macro AI Radar for Housing, Debt, Banking
Housing is unaffordable. Private debt is crushing workers. And the TV talking heads explaining all of this are just as lost as the neoclassical economists they quote. For my 73rd birthday, I am running one Macro AI Radar workshop. I will show...
US Tariff Fight Shifts to Heavy Machinery Imported From Mexico
Two bipartisan U.S. senators have asked the Commerce Department to launch a Section 232 national‑security investigation into heavy‑equipment imports from Mexico, arguing that offshoring erodes American manufacturing jobs. They cite recent plant closures and layoffs at Deere, Caterpillar and CNH...
Why Manufacturing Remains Indonesia’s Key Growth Driver, Accelerating Downstream...
Indonesia’s 2025‑2029 economic roadmap hinges on manufacturing, which posted a 5.3% growth rate in 2025—slightly above the nation’s 5.0% GDP expansion. The sector now accounts for 19.07% of GDP and over 80% of exports, employing more than 20 million workers. Government...
March ISM Report: Manufacturing PMI Reaches Highest Level Since August 2022
The Institute for Supply Management’s March 2026 Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7, the strongest reading since August 2022 and a modest gain over February. New orders slowed while production stayed robust, and the employment index remained in contraction territory. The...
Record of the Financial Policy Committee Meeting on 27 March 2026
On 1 April 2026 the Bank of England published the record of its Financial Policy Committee meeting held on 27 March 2026. The minutes provide a detailed account of the committee’s assessment of financial‑system risks, macro‑prudential policy settings and upcoming regulatory priorities. By releasing...
U.S. Spirits Exports Slid 3.8 Percent in 2025 Amid Ongoing Tariff Battle
U.S. spirits exports fell 3.8 percent in 2025 to $2.37 billion, driven primarily by a Canadian provincial boycott that cut shipments to the neighbor by more than 70 percent. Excluding Canada, overall spirits exports grew 2.5 percent, but whiskey suffered a 19 percent global decline...
Singapore Leads 11-Nation Initiative to Keep Global Supply Chains Open
Singapore and ten fellow members of the Future of Investment and Trade (FIT) Partnership issued a joint statement on March 31 to share information and coordinate policies that preserve open, diversified and resilient supply chains. The pact follows the recent...
Colombian Central Bank Interest Rate Hike
On April 1, 2026, the Central Bank of Colombia voted 4‑2‑1 to raise its benchmark rate by a full percentage point to 11.25%, after a similar move in February. Inflation has fallen sharply from 18.3% in March 2023 to 4.8% in mid‑2025, yet...
US Oil Output Stays Flat Despite War‑Driven Price Surge
U.S. oil production after the war ends U.S. oil production is unlikely to rise much as a result of the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz unless the interruption of oil supplies and rise in prices proves...
Iran War Drives Oil to $118, Eurozone Inflation Hits 2.5% and Dollar Slides
The Iran war has sent Brent crude to $118 a barrel, lifted Eurozone inflation to 2.5% in March and knocked the U.S. dollar index 0.6% lower. Energy‑price shocks are now the dominant driver of price pressures across Europe and are...
Positioning the Phl in Asia’s Growth Story
At the Boao Forum for Asia’s 25th conference, leaders reaffirmed Asia’s role as the world’s primary growth engine, with its share of global GDP projected to reach 49.7% in 2026. The Philippines, positioned at the heart of Southeast Asia, is...
BSP Widens BOP Deficit Outlook
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has lifted its 2026 balance of payments (BOP) deficit forecast to $7.8 billion, or 1.5% of GDP, up from the earlier $5.9 billion estimate. The current‑account gap also widened to $20.3 billion, representing about 4% of GDP,...
US Data Center Growth Stalls Over Imported Equipment Shortage
Almost half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is the shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn't have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely...
A Different Supply-Side Shock
President Trump’s potential decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed would trigger the largest energy‑supply shock on record, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. The disruption also threatens 30% of the world’s seaborne fertilizer,...
Defense Spending Surge Fuels Unseen Innovation Arms Race
I'm proud to launch Sage Road's sixth report, which focuses on "Defense Innovation" (read the Executive Summary here: https://t.co/rRtYxEUTE9). Accelerating global defense spending is poised to run headlong into accelerating innovation with market participants underestimating the breadth of implications to...
Bowman Says Capital Changes Will Fuel Small-Business Lending
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michele Bowman unveiled a proposed capital framework that could free up to $100 billion for small‑business lending by lowering risk‑weightings on bank assets under Basel III. The change targets community and regional banks that hold roughly...
China's Trade Reliance Makes Sea Lane Disruptions Catastrophic
It might be. But this overlooks chinas dependence on trade. Iran and the gulf sell oil, at any price. They are critical inputs. China’s much larger trade by a country mile is about open sea lanes, no choke points, and...
India Delays Cabotage Rewind Plan Amid Carrier Pressure, Middle East Reroutings
India’s Ministry of Ports & Shipping announced a six‑month postponement of the cabotage policy that would have ended foreign‑flag vessels’ right to operate coastal shipping routes. The original rule, introduced in 2018, aimed to force domestic operators to handle intra‑country...
Undervalued RMB Functions Like Massive Trade Tariff
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Global Trade Thrives Despite US Tariffs, Economy Resilient
"The global economy turns out to be more resilient than we had feared" [ed. note: not all of us] "global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust" "While its direct exports to the US came under...
Attacks Persist in Iran and Across the Mideast as Trump Threatens Escalation
President Donald Trump’s statements on the Iran conflict have swung from pledging a quick exit to threatening to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Meanwhile, Iran has intensified missile and drone strikes...
Brent Slides Despite PMs' “Batten Down” Warnings
Why is front month Brent oil down on the day both Australian and UK prime ministers gave 'batten down the hatches' addresses to their nations?
Inflation‑Adjusted Retail Sales Still Shrink, Q1 Sluggish
Today's "better-than-expected" retail sales numbers were still a net contraction when adjusted for inflation 🙃 There's been a sneaky pullback in the real consumer spending numbers over the past few months. Q1 off to a sluggish start https://t.co/HaUNobi6Tx
Markets Bet Big on a Quick End to the Iran War
President Trump signaled he may end U.S. strikes on Iran within two to three weeks, prompting a wave of market optimism. Brent crude briefly slipped below $100 a barrel, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures turned positive and 10‑year Treasury yields...
US Debt Set to Hit $64 Trillion, Calls for Convention
US national debt is projected to rise by $2.4 TRILLION annually over the next decade. As a result, total national debt would SURGE to $64 TRILLION. IT’S TIME FOR AN ARTICLE V CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION TO LIMIT DEBT. https://t.co/ZvvUKmkbHa
Trump’s Slip Could Derail Xi Meeting’s Trade Agenda
How will Trump’s “mistake” affect his meeting with Xi? What does it mean to the agenda, expectations, and outcomes? Starting with trade, supply chains, and logistics. Taiwan?
Learn From Hormuz Crisis: Rethink Gas Export Strategies
The reshuffling of gas and LNG exports as the Hormuz crisis move to its second month is an experience that we need to learn form.
Yuan Replaces Dollars for Iran Strait Transit, Signaling Currency Clash
Ships paying Iran for transit thru the Strait. In yuan. Not dollars. An indicator of a coming currency battle? And roiling supply chains and maritime?
Asia’s Coal Resurgence Driven by Gas Shortages and Geopolitics
Asia is being FORCED BACK TO COAL to keep the lights on. Gas shortages are leaving countries with no other alternatives. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/h4FiiSWzHr
Manufacturing Grows Third Month Amid War, Tariff Concerns
"Manufacturing sector expands for third consecutive month, but war, tariffs cause worry" "In the last two months, the prices index has increased 19.3 percentage points to reach its highest level since... June 2022." https://t.co/eKASacTNPS https://t.co/rXk8eLwXeb
Markets Await Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
Toll on Hormuz Likely Raises Prices, Cuts Exporter Profits
Question for incidence-knowers: If post ante regime is one where ships can transit Hormuz as long as they pay a toll, will the end result be --higher prices for final consumers --lower profits for non-Iranian Gulf exporters --rough mix (any split within 1/3-2/3 of...
Is America Really Insolvent? A Simple Economic Breakdown
Is the United States insolvent? Lemme youtubesplain: https://t.co/6Re8YEXmWA I'm trying a few new things on my YouTube channel -- trying to make economics more accessible -- and so I'm also really interested in your feedback.
War and Hormuz Stalemate: Each Blocks the Other
They won’t end the war until Hormuz opens. But Hormuz won’t open until the war ends.🤔 https://t.co/z3QG3m2ZIs
China’s Trade Surplus Centralizes Manufacturing,
Because on the economic front they say it, and they have a trillion trade surplus, which is designed to centralize global manufacturing in China. The left just doesn’t pay attention to commerce.
US Bond Market Endures Record 68‑Month Drawdown
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 68 months, by far the longest in history. https://t.co/iK6GQkwPgq
Post‑COVID Inflation Surge: More Prices Exceed 3%
New Fed paper showing that underlying inflation dynamics have shifted since COVID. Across countries, a greater share of prices are now rising >3% per year - partly because wage inflation has been persistently higher. https://t.co/1PELesrnc2
Hormuz Closure Threatens Helium, Driving up Chip Prices
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking off about a third of the world’s global supply of helium. Helium is a critical input in semiconductor manufacturing used to cool chipmaking tools. LESS HELIUM = FEWER CHIPS = MORE EXPENSIVE CHIPS....
Milei's Critics Must Abandon Poverty Metric for Real Gains
When Milei took office in Argentina, critics routinely pointed to the poverty rate as proof he was failing (despite slowing inflation, an improved balance sheet, & stronger growth). Still lots of problems there, ofc, but his critics are gonna need...
Saudi's 2025 Break‑even Oil Price Stays Near $100
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
Both Government and Private Sector Fabricate Inflation Metrics
"In America the government makes a fake inflation index and then the private sector makes up an even more faker one' https://t.co/qzfytmzG0V