Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
IMF Says US Fed Has Little Scope for Rate Cuts This Year
The International Monetary Fund’s latest Article IV review finds U.S. inflation on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2 % target in early 2027, but signals minimal room for rate cuts this year. IMF staff project only a single policy rate reduction by the end of 2026. The outlook suggests the Fed will maintain a restrictive stance throughout 2025. Consequently, monetary easing is expected to be modest and delayed.
Big Hedge Funds Post Mixed Q1 Returns as Geopolitical Turmoil Hits Markets
In the first quarter, hedge funds delivered uneven results: Balyasny Asset Management fell 3.8% year‑to‑date, while Schonfeld Strategic Advisors posted a modest 0.9% gain. The divergence reflects heightened market stress from the Iran‑Israel war, rising oil prices and a sharp...
Greece to Join MSCI Developed Markets in May 2027, Unlocking $300 Million Passive Flows
MSCI announced that Greece will be reclassified from emerging to developed markets in its May 2027 index review. The upgrade, hailed as a symbolic turning point in Greece’s post‑crisis recovery, is expected to generate about $300 million in net passive inflows,...
U.S. Stocks Rise 0.7% as Trump Hints Iran War Could End in Weeks
U.S. equities jumped 0.7% on Friday, led by a 3.8% surge in the Nasdaq, as President Donald Trump signaled a possible de‑escalation of the Iran‑Israel conflict. Futures, Treasury yields and oil prices all moved lower, fueling a broad market bounce...
Under the Hood: How a Global Supply Shock Reaches Napa Valley
A sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global oil and natural‑gas prices, sending energy costs soaring for diesel‑dependent businesses. The price shock is already felt in Napa Valley, where vineyards face higher fuel bills, pricier industrial...
The UK Is Falling Behind the G7, but Change Is Possible
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that the United Kingdom is falling behind its G7 peers in business investment and manufacturing intensity. Private sector investment totals just 11.1% of GDP, the second‑lowest among the group, while capital intensity...
One Year on From Trump's 'Liberation Day,' Global Investors Are Rethinking American Exceptionalism
One year after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—34% on China, 20% on the EU and 46% on Vietnam—global markets have re‑evaluated exposure to the United States. The tariffs sparked a sharp sell‑off in U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar,...
ARA Crop-Based Fame Cheaper than Diesel for First Time
For the first time, European crop‑based biodiesel (FAME) traded below ICE gasoil, with the benchmark Fame 0 discounting diesel by $25‑78 per tonne in early April. The price gap stems from Middle‑East supply shocks that have pushed diesel to multi‑year highs....
Hormuz Disruption Roils African Oil Markets, Economies
A prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is set to severely disrupt oil flows to and from sub‑Saharan Africa, threatening export revenues and import costs across the region. The bottleneck pushes global freight rates higher and forces African refiners...
OPEC Warns Oil Demand Forecasts Miss Rising ICE Sales
OPEC researchers raise a very important point here. A major oversight in forecasts predicting a sharp drop in oil demand from rising EV adoption is the failure to account for the ongoing growth in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Ironically,...
The Conflict Is Disrupting More than Just Energy Flows, What Do Investors Need to Watch For?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking the flow of more than 20% of global oil, 25% of LNG and a suite of critical industrial inputs such as phosphate fertilizer, sulfur and urea. These constraints are creating a...
Fuel Subsidies Are a Ticking Clock, Not Protection
RM4 billion in subsidies sounds like protection. It is actually a countdown clock. Malaysia has spent more defending fuel prices in one month than most emergency budgets allocate for an entire quarter — and the conflict that triggered it has no...
How Long Can the Bank of Canada Look Through a US$100 Oil Shock?
BMO projects Canadian inflation edging just above 3% in April as oil prices breach $100 per barrel, yet the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate steady at 2.25%. The governing council said it will "look through" the temporary energy...
CITGO Sale Twists In The Wind As Treasury Department Stalls
Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez is moving to cement control of CITGO Petroleum by installing a new board of directors, including Asdrubal Chavez, a cousin of Hugo Chávez. The appointments require approval from the U.S. Treasury and State Departments, which have...
Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era...
President Donald Trump warned of a full‑scale bombing campaign against Iran following recent Israeli and U.S. strikes, reigniting geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The conflict has pushed crude oil to roughly $80 per barrel, a price level last seen...
Rising Gas Prices Won’t Halt Asia’s Renewable Shift
Don't fall for the easy narrative that costly gas will mean more coal burn in Asia. Briefly in the short term maybe, but the long term trajectory toward renewables gets stronger. Look at the math behind the argument. 🎁🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-01/iran-war-the-lng-shock-isn-t-driving-asia-back-to-coal
How Trump’s War in Iran Is Scrambling Pharma’s Shipping Options
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have tightened the Strait of Hormuz blockade, cutting off a key east‑west artery that handles roughly 10% of global pharmaceutical shipments. Temperature‑controlled ingredients, which make up about 20% of those flows, are especially vulnerable,...
How Liberation Day Has Really Changed Retail And Prices One Year On
The April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs introduced sweeping duties on multiple trading partners, prompting a fragmented trade regime. One year later, retail inflation has risen modestly while retailers have absorbed most of the cost, leading to margin compression especially in...
Markets Surge and Everything You Need to Know About SpaceX
In this episode of the AJ Bell Money and Markets podcast, Charlene Young and Dani Hewson review a volatile week in global markets, noting a rally driven by optimism over a potential de‑escalation of the Iran conflict and lower oil...
Supply Chain Disruption Drives Competition Between Ambitious South Asian Ports
Supply chain disruptions are spurring fierce competition among South Asian ports, with Sri Lanka's Hambantota International Port (HIP) accelerating its container‑handling capabilities. China Merchants Port Holdings is committing $108 million to add six quay cranes, 16 RTGs and 40 trailers, aiming...
The Daily Feather — Ferreting on National Ferret Day
National Ferret Day, observed each April 2, celebrates the quirky "weasel war dance" of domestic ferrets and highlights a historic mascot that traces back to the 15th century. The Daily Feather’s post blends light‑hearted cultural trivia with a visual collage of macro‑economic...
The Trump Administration’s Plan B: The USTR Announces 76 New Section 301 Investigations
On March 11‑12, 2026 the U.S. Trade Representative announced 76 new Section 301 investigations, targeting 16 economies for alleged structural excess capacity and 60 economies for alleged forced‑labor violations. The USTR has set an April 15, 2026 deadline for written comments and will...
The US-Israel War on Iran Is Accelerating De-Dollarization and America’s Decline | Ahmed Moor
The United States and Israel are spending roughly $12 billion each week on the war against Iran, a conflict that is reshaping global finance. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has forced about 100 vessels to pay a $2 million toll...
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many
President Trump’s address failed to lift market optimism, leaving risk appetite severely compressed ahead of a long holiday weekend. The US dollar surged, pushing the yen toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark while the euro stalled near $1.15 and sterling slipped below...
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 April 2026
The Capital Spectator updates its long‑term total‑return outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI), a market‑value‑weighted blend of major asset classes, to an annualized 7.2%—a modest dip from the prior estimate and well under the index’s 9.0% ten‑year trailing return....
Trump’s War Address Sends Oil Market Into Whiplash
Whipsawed once again: That is the state of the oil market and beyond as investors react to President Trump’s address to the nation regarding the Middle East War. (5-day WTI oil price chart below from CNBC.) #economy #markets #oil #MiddleEastWar @cnbc
We Tracked Every Trump Tariff Change for a Year. Here’s What We Found.
On April 2, 2025 President Trump instituted sweeping reciprocal tariffs, branding them as a catalyst for an investment surge, higher federal revenue, debt reduction, and lower consumer prices. A year later, analysts Kyle Hulehan and Erica York examined customs data,...
Markets Snap Back to Trend After Failed War‑off‑ramp Hope
One way to see today’s risk-off trade is markets hoped for an Iran war off-ramp in President Trump’s speech and there wasn’t one. Another is that markets were receptive to hopium at month- and quarter-end this week and now we’re on...
Admin Plans Iran Exit Despite $4+ Gas Surge
With the apparent TACO yesterday, the administration is saying we will wind down our involvement in Iran without figuring out how to work through the disruption leading to $4+ gas prices in the USA? @EnergyEmpirePod https://t.co/N9KbLRP829
U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, Signaling New Diplomatic Path
The United States removed all sanctions on Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez, formally acknowledging her as the country’s legitimate authority. The move follows the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife in January and could reshape oil exports and humanitarian...
Hormuz Disruption Forces Europe Into Diesel Bidding War
With Hormuz still disrupted, diesel is going to the highest bidder Europe will have to compete hard for every marginal barrel. https://t.co/76ycFBcrIj #Diesel #Europe #OilMarkets
Aime Williams Unpacks Post‑Tariff Surprises and Court Impact
The very awesome @Aime_Williams joins the podcast to explain what happened since Trump’s April 2, 2025 TARIFF announcement, including SURPRISES buried in the US import and export data, as well what comes next after that momentous SUPREME COURT...
China Says US, Israeli Attacks on Iran the ‘Root Cause’ of Hormuz Strait Blockage
China’s foreign ministry said US and Israeli strikes on Iran caused the Strait of Hormuz blockage. The closure has pushed Brent crude to about $100 a barrel, spiking global oil prices by 40‑50%. Chinese airlines announced fuel surcharges, while President...
Rising Costs and Bureaucracy Leave Americans Poorer, Growth Stagnant
Our Liberation Day lookback: "Taxes, prices, uncertainty, and bureaucracy climbed, while US manufacturing, FDI, and the trade balance stood still. Exemptions proliferated; lobbying skyrocketed; and most Americans were worse off." https://t.co/9XPW0ZPaZH via @CatoInstitute https://t.co/kyBukF1ymS
Embargo Preferred Over Military to Stabilize Oil Prices
Taking Kharg Island or bombing powerplants takes Iran's oil off global markets for a long time. That spikes oil by a lot more and is what markets fear most. Better to do an embargo and take Iran's oil off the...
Stopgap Oil Releases Fall Short as Gas Prices Top $4 a Gallon
A coalition of 32 IEA members released a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil, while the U.S. tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and lifted sanctions on Iranian crude. Despite these moves, Brent crude breached $100 per barrel and U.S. gasoline...
Tariffs Fail; Prioritize Productivity, Affordability, and Growth
Tariffs have not created manufacturing jobs. Smart economic strategy would stop measuring success by the number of assembly lines reopened & start with what raises living standards: productivity, affordability and economic growth. by @jasonfurman https://t.co/3AnFZhCNK6
Most Retailers Expect to Raise Prices Within Six Months
Majority of retailers plan to raise prices over the next six months per KPMG research https://t.co/HWavaKDEbW via @wwd
Trump’s Iran Threat Sends Oil 5% Higher, Triggers Sharp Drop in Asian Stock Markets
Donald Trump warned of intensified attacks on Iran, pushing Brent crude up 4.9% to $106.16 a barrel and U.S. crude 4% to $104.15. The rhetoric sparked a coordinated sell‑off across Asian equity indices, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk.
WTI Hits $108, Still Cheaper Than Brent
Oil prices surge, WTI May at $108 now. This is the "cheap" oil (Brent is more expensive)
China Poised to Benefit From Iran War Dynamics
In the days after the Iran war started, Erica Downs and I wrote @ForeignPolicy about why despite large oil and imports through the strait, China could be a counterintuitive winner. This week’s @TheEconomist captures the dynamic well, far beyond...
Telling the Truth About China’s Success
Yanis Varoufakis warns that the flare‑up in the Persian Gulf heightens the risk of a broader US‑China confrontation, making de‑escalation the top global priority. He argues that a pervasive myth—that China has cheated its way to prosperity—fuels mistrust and makes...
Read This Essential Take on Trump's Tariff Anniversary
i might end up posting this 17 times today but if you only read one piece on the anniversary of Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs let it be this one, by Alan Beattie https://t.co/R5b5Z5FntW
Satyajit Das: The Wages of War
Satyajit Das warns that global defence spending has surged to $2.7 trillion in 2024 and is projected to hit $6.7 trillion by 2035, raising the share of GDP devoted to military budgets from 2.2% to 2.5%. He argues that modern, high‑tech weaponry...
Fuel Prices Are Soaring. Plastic Could Be Next.
The ongoing Iran‑related conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil above $100 per barrel and gasoline past $4 a gallon in the United States. The spike is reverberating through petrochemical feedstocks, especially naphtha, where Asian prices have...
Oil Hikes 7% After Trump Says US-Israel Will Keep Striking Iran
Oil prices surged nearly 7% on Thursday after President Donald Trump warned that the United States and Israel would continue striking Iran, reigniting concerns over supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $108.81 a barrel and U.S. WTI to $107.18, marking...
A Year On: Four Ways Trump's Tariffs Have Changed the Global Economy
One year after President Donald Trump launched his trade‑war, the average U.S. tariff rate climbed to roughly 10%, up from 2.5% in early 2024. The higher duties slashed U.S. imports from China by about 30% and cut shipments to China...
Iran War Trade Roils Markets as Trump Narrates the Conflict
U.S. equity markets rallied this week, with the S&P 500 up about 2.1% and 10‑year Treasury yields falling 0.4%, as investors briefly hoped for a swift end to the U.S.–Iran war. President Donald Trump’s aggressive comments, however, reignited volatility, pushing crude...
Iran War Drives US Oil Demand Collapse, Cuts Forecast
Lower EIA US oil forecast probably reflects demand destruction & weakened economic activity resulting from the Iran war @Peter_Strachan
Global Quad3 Stagflation Triggers Bond Yield Surge
US Stocks Only Fans don't get it, but The Bond Market does It's called Global #Quad3 Stagflation with a breakout in Bond Yields https://t.co/LfjSg2suV3