Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Raises Apr Sulphur Price by $70/T
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOc) raised its April official selling price for sulphur destined for the Indian subcontinent to $600 per tonne, a $70 increase from March. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut roughly half of global seaborne sulphur shipments, tightening supply. Freight costs to India have more than doubled, now $36‑$38 per tonne, pushing delivered prices to $636‑$638. Metals processors are willing to pay the premium, while fertilizer makers face tighter margins.
Iran War Triggers Structural Oil Price Upgrade
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
From Oil Importer to Exporter, US Still Meddles
20+ years ago we were net importers of and oil and gas and therefore we decided to meddle in the Middle East to protect shipping lanes, etc. Today we are next exporters of oil and gas. I thought that would have...
Catalyst Watch
The latest Catalyst Watch notes that despite the largest oil price shock in history, the U.S. economy remains resilient, buoyed by its status as a net exporter of crude and natural gas. Fed officials cite stable macro data and no...
Canada January GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% Expected
Canada’s economy posted a modest 0.1% month‑on‑month GDP gain in January, just edging out the 0.0% consensus. Annual growth slowed to 1.7%, the weakest pace since the pandemic‑induced contraction of 2020. The fourth quarter saw a 0.6% annualized output decline,...
TMTB Morning Wrap
NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment to integrate Marvell Technology into its AI ecosystem through NVLink Fusion, expanding silicon photonics collaboration. Bernstein upgraded Western Digital to Outperform, projecting a 24% compound annual growth rate through FY30 and raising Seagate’s target, while...
Oil Prices Rocket; Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Tanker; Some Hormuz Transits Resumes | Rapid Read 31 Mar 2026
Iran resumed selective control of the Strait of Hormuz, striking a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai and permitting only flag‑aligned vessels such as COSCO to transit. The move coincides with a U.S. deployment of thousands of Army paratroopers to the Middle...
Saudi’s Folk Maritime Shifts India-Gulf Service to Red Sea as Hormuz Disruption Bites
Saudi state‑owned Folk Maritime announced it is pulling its India‑Gulf service out of the Hormuz corridor and redirecting the two 1,900‑TEU vessels to the Red Sea, focusing on Jeddah and Aqaba. The move follows the effective closure of the Strait...
CIS Macro and Credit: Commodity Buffers Cushion Middle East Risks
The ongoing Middle East conflict is reverberating through the CIS region via higher oil prices, trade disruptions and imported inflation. Commodity buffers are cushioning the shock: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan see stronger export prospects, while Armenia’s reliance on fuel imports makes...
EU-India FTA Boosts Indian Aluminium, CBAM Still Caps Gains
The EU-India FTA may help Indian aluminium exports, but CBAM still limits the real upside. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/eu-india-fta-could-improve-indian.html
Decline and Fall
Markets are downplaying the escalating Hormuz Strait tension despite U.S. officials portraying the situation as stable. The article warns that the geopolitical risk could quickly affect global oil supplies, pushing bond yields higher. Japan, heavily reliant on Gulf energy, faces...
Government Steps in as Fuel Shock Hits
South Africa’s government announced a temporary one‑month cut to the general fuel levy of R3 per litre (about $0.16) to cushion the shock from the Iran‑Israel conflict that has driven Brent crude up 55% in March. Despite the relief, diesel...
Bangladesh Tightens Grip on Global Denim Trade
Bangladesh tightened its grip on the global denim trade in 2025, with shipments to the EU and US topping roughly US$2.6 bn. The country now leads these key markets, outpacing traditional suppliers such as Pakistan, Turkey, Vietnam and Mexico. Enhanced cost...
Taiwan: Powering Ahead
Taiwan posted a record 7.71% GDP growth in 2025, outpacing IMF and ADB forecasts. The island’s economy is powered by a booming semiconductor and AI sector, which lifted exports by 35% and pushed the TAIEX above a $32 billion valuation. Foreign...
Accredited Official Statistics: GDP Deflators at Market Prices, and Money GDP March 2026 (Quarterly National Accounts)
The Treasury released the latest official GDP deflator series on 31 March 2026, covering historical index data from 1955‑56 through 2024‑25 and OBR‑forecasted values through 2030‑31. The deflator figures are drawn from ONS series L8GG (financial years) and MNF2 (calendar years), with...
How Companies Can Stay Ahead Of Tariffs That Keep Changing
Tariff volatility has shifted from occasional adjustments to continuous, rapid changes, forcing companies to abandon 12‑month planning cycles. John Burhans of Mercury emphasizes that speed and full‑chain visibility are essential to identify SKU‑level exposure within hours. Effective scenario planning now...
Country Report: Turkey’s Booming Numbers
Turkey entered 2026 with a surge in market optimism, as the BIST 100 reached a record 13,867 points and the central bank trimmed its policy rate by 100 basis points to 37%. The government raised $3.5 billion through eurobond issuances, while...
Global Stocks End Month in Brutal Decline
A Bloomberg table on a brutal month for stock markets around the world. #economy #markets #stocks #investing #investora
Rising Bond Yields Squeeze Bitcoin Demand and Liquidity
The bond market is doing more damage to Bitcoin than the war. 10-year TIPS yield hit 2.02% — up 30bps since Iran. Highest real return on govt bonds since June 2025. When you earn 2%+ risk-free, holding a zero-yield asset...
The Daily Feather — Cooler in Texas
Bison Coolers, a Texas‑born brand, is seeing rapid growth as local consumers seek rugged refrigeration for outdoor work and recreation. Recent data shows the Cooler Industry Sentiment Metric (ISM) climbing, while non‑performing loans (NPLs) across the region are also rising,...
Rising Fuel Costs Intensify Pressure on Fragile European Road Freight Market
European road freight operators are feeling a sharp rise in fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict, which now represents up to 30% of their operating expenses. The International Road Transport Union warns this is a structural shift, not...
Being Ready for Cross-Border Resolution: Lessons From Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank
The Bank of England detailed its cross‑border resolution framework, highlighting lessons from the 2023 failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Credit Suisse. Using SVB’s UK subsidiary and Credit Suisse’s £506 billion (≈$632 billion) asset base, the BoE explained how coordination with...
Tariff Turmoil: Refunds, Lawsuits and New Duties Ahead
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs, invalidating duties on imports from China, Canada, Mexico and dozens of other nations. The decision opens roughly $166 billion in...
Trump's Trade Shock Spurs Global Free‑Trade Alliances
I presented my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade, in Paris last week. Here is the first coverage i've seen 💪 ✍️Guillaume de Calignon @gcalignon « Le choc douanier de Donald Trump pousse le reste du monde à se rapprocher .... les pays...
African Bank Revenues Top $100bn as Returns Outpace Global Peers
African banks generated roughly $99 bn in revenue in 2024, with McKinsey projecting $107 bn for 2025, marking the first time continent‑wide banking revenues topped $100 bn. Return on equity stood at 19% in 2024, well above the global banking average of about...
Iran-Israel-U.S. War Cripples Energy Supply Chain, Gasoline Hits $4/Gal
The joint Iran-Israel-U.S. war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude to $115 a barrel and U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon, and triggered jet‑fuel shortages in Europe. Disruptions to oil, helium and plastics are rippling through logistics,...
China's Manufacturing PMI Hits 50.4 in March, Ending Two‑Month Contraction
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index climbed to 50.4 in March, up from 49.0 in February, signalling the first expansionary reading in two months. The rebound, driven by faster resumption of work after the Spring Festival and stronger new‑order demand,...
Geopolitical Strikes Push Global Gas Prices Higher
Gas at the pump just hit $4/gallon. US stepped up attacks on Iran hitting missile depots. Unclear if this will lead to more escalation or signals a peak. Ukraine hit Russian oil production facilities almost 1000km from its border which will...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 83%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF
S&P Global Flags New Wave of Emerging‑Market Credit Downgrades Amid Middle East Conflict
S&P Global warned that sovereigns in emerging markets are entering a new credit‑downgrade era as the Middle East war pushes commodity prices higher and tightens financing conditions. The agency says the shock threatens fiscal balances in import‑dependent economies such as...
India's Q3 Current Account Deficit Hits $13bn, FY Total $30bn
India's Current Account Deficit for the Oct-Dec 2025 quarter came in at $13bn. This includes the "tariff" quarter now, and it's not that much. For the full 9 months of this FY, it's a $30bn deficit. Source: RBI https://t.co/SZ3Ufjjzfz
Mexico's Labour Market Skewed Toward Informal Employment
Mexico’s dualistic labour market is weighted towards informality. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/ZRjXpKyZBq
US Bunker‑buster Strikes Hit Iranian Nuclear Site as Drone Hits Oil Tanker, Crude Prices Jump
The United States launched 2,000‑pound bunker‑buster bombs on an Isfahan ammunition depot linked to Iran’s enriched uranium program, while an Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti‑owned Al Salmi tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose...
China Extends Fuel Export Ban, Offers Minimal Relief
China has extended its fuel export ban for another month to April. There is now talk of letting a small amount of fuel out to countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives. But the shipments would be only ~5%-10%...
Trump Prioritized Fun over Economic Fallout From Tariffs
But the tariffs may have screwed the economy, but Donald Trump had lots of fun imposing them, and that is what really matters.
SoFi Shares Slide 35% YTD to $16.90 as Macro Headwinds Stall Digital‑Bank Growth
SoFi Technologies' shares have tumbled 35% year‑to‑date, trading at $16.90 after the digital bank reported record Q4 revenue but warned that inflation, oil price spikes and the lingering Iran conflict are dampening borrowing and spending. The decline highlights the clash...
War Turmoil Drives Oil and Dollar Consolidation
Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating: War developments pulled in both directions, leaving investors on edge On the one hand, Iran struck an oil tanker, carrying Kuwait oil, in port in Dubai. On the other hand,...
Global Market Trend Shifts: ACWI Rolls Over, Lows Outpace Highs
The global trend just cracked... ACWI is rolling over. And global new lows are now > new highs. That’s a change in character. https://t.co/h5jwZpfzt5
Get Ready for a Crisis in Food Prices and Insecurity
The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is sharply disrupting both oil and fertilizer supplies. Crude prices have jumped more than 50% while fertilizer costs have risen 30‑40% as a third of global trade passes through the...
Higher Fertility Slows Growth Without Immigration, Cuts Labor Participation
🤔 ✍️ @voxeu without immigration, “higher fertility would depress GDP per capita growth for roughly 50 years.” 💥more births would likely lower force participation among women & older workers. https://t.co/VubvO2dK8V
Iran Attacks Ship, POTUS Okays Operation Wind‑down; Oil Steady
Iran struck a ship with Kuwaiti oil in a Dubai port and press reports POTUS told aides can consider winding down operation without securing Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains firm. Mkts uncertain. Large euro options at $1.15 expire today...
Polish Fuel Prices up in March, but There’s Little Heat Elsewhere
Poland’s consumer price index rose to 3.0% year‑on‑year in March, up from 2.1% in February, driven almost entirely by a 15.4% jump in fuel prices. The surge added roughly 0.8 percentage points to headline inflation, while core inflation remained steady...
Pakistan, China Foreign Ministers Meet Amid US‑Iran Deal Rumors
The Pakistani and Chinese foreign affairs ministers have met today in Beijing, according to Chinese state media. The meeting comes as **rumours** abound that Beijing could play a role as "guarantor" of any US-Iran deal.
Tariffs Served as Political Theatre, Not Economic Policy
The tariffs weren't trade policy, IMHO, they were tariff theatre. There were no specific goals, no studies, not even the slightest economic thought behind their design. > Is it a category error to evaluate them as economic policy. >They max'd political...
Market Prices Now Directly Drive Economic Reality
The market may not be the economy, but today, the economy is the market. The speed by which changes in market prices move into the economy has never been faster. #MarkToMarketEconomy
China Climbs Value Chain yet Still Dominates Low‑end Markets
One thing that's really impressive is China moving up the manufacturing value chain, while still absolutely dominating the low end. As @Camrjohnson has pointed out (and industry data confirms), China still absolutely dominates in areas like Christmas ornaments.
Market Down 20% Pre-War, Defying Bleak Expectations
This is, honestly, less than I might've guessed given A) An insane run up at the start of the year. B) Expected to be a very hard-hit economy. In fact, the market had fallen ~20% even before the start of the...
War Fatigue Drives Stock Rally, Dollar Weakness
Stocks up strongly, US Dollar weakens on war exhaustion. Reports that Trump wants to end Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But can the rally last will Oil over $100? Here are my thoughts on it...
Chinese Firms Shift to Vietnam, yet Overall Impact Remains Modest
This is a very interesting piece on Chinese companies moving production to Vietnam. In some sense it's happening at major scale. But also in some other sense, it's very minor, with very little of the TVA leaving China. https://t.co/ZixLeXz4nC https://t.co/BnujaABZ5M
Vietnam LNG Project Pivots to Renewables Amid Price Surge
LNG DEMAND DESTRUCTION ALERT 🇻🇳🚨 A proposed Vietnam LNG power project is asking the government to switch to a renewables+battery plant, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict Vietnam was expected to be a high-growth LNG importer https://t.co/ac6gBNmCDr