Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Nomura Cuts India Rating to Neutral, Urges Shift to Korea and China Amid Oil Spike
Nomura has downgraded Indian equities to Neutral from Overweight, warning that soaring energy costs, AI lag and a slowdown in domestic inflows could pressure valuations. The broker also flagged $61.2 bn of foreign outflows and suggested investors re‑allocate to Korean equities, which have fallen about 15% since the Iran conflict, and to MSCI China, where it remains overweight.
Kudlow -Thursday, April 2
On Thursday, April 2, Fox Business aired a special episode of Larry Kudlow's program, featuring a roundtable on domestic and global economic policies. The show highlighted a presidential address and an interview with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi focusing...
A Holiday Across Much of Asia, but Japan Is Open. We Get PMI Data From There & From China
A rare Good Friday holiday left most of Asia quiet, but Japan stayed open and released its latest services PMI. China also published its services PMI, adding to a week of mixed manufacturing data from both economies. Japan’s services sector...
Rival Nations Seize On Choke Points to Counter Trump
President Trump’s confrontational trade and military policies have prompted rival nations to exploit strategic choke points, threatening U.S. economic stability. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted shipments that carry about 20% of the world’s oil, driving up...
Tariffs Strained U.S. Aluminum Supplies. Now the Iran War Is Making It Worse.
U.S. tariffs on imported aluminum have tightened domestic supply, and the escalating conflict in Iran is further disrupting global metal shipments. Manufacturers like Awake Window & Door in Arizona are already cutting production, while Reitnouer Trailers relies on roughly 4,500 pounds...
Oil Prices Jump and Shares Drop After Trump Threatens More Iran Strikes
Former President Donald Trump’s warning of further strikes against Iran sparked an immediate surge in oil markets, with Brent crude climbing over 8% and U.S. West Texas Intermediate briefly exceeding $110 per barrel. The rhetoric revived fears of prolonged disruption...
Economic Flash: A Month of Second-Order Effects
March’s markets pivoted from a geopolitical flashpoint to broader macro pressures, as the Iran‑related conflict drove energy, fertilizer and helium price spikes while inflating inflation expectations. Simultaneously, AI‑related anxieties sparked redemption activity in private‑credit and SaaS‑heavy private‑equity funds, though underlying...
The US-China Trade War 1 Year On: Who Really Holds the Upper Hand?
One year after the US‑China trade war escalated, both economies remain locked in a fragile truce that prevents a full‑scale confrontation but leaves many tariffs in place. Washington continues to leverage technology export controls, while Beijing relies on its massive...
Record Hormuz Outflow: 4 Million Barrels, War‑Era Peak
Everything suggests that at least ~4 million barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz today. Largest outflow since the 1st day of the Third Gulf War. (... And yes, that's a fraction of the 20 million barrels a day...
Wang Yi Works the Phones About Iran War; CICIR Head on National Security; Pig Overcapacity; Wemby's Time at Shaolin; Balanced...
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively dialing diplomatic lines over the past 24 hours, speaking with the foreign ministers of Germany, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain as well as the EU’s High Representative on the Iran crisis. He has...
Saudi Maxes Yanbu Flows, Taps Storage in March
Saudi Arabia rerouted most of its March crude shipments to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, pushing crude exports to an average of 5.3 million barrels per day and refined product exports to about 800,000 b/d. The 1,200‑km East‑West pipeline reached full...
No IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings without a Global Crisis
The IMF and World Bank’s April 13‑18 spring meetings will be dominated by a supply‑side crisis sparked by the Iran war and the de‑facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions to oil, gas, helium and aluminum shipments are inflating...
Bond Traders Show Minimal Bearishness Ahead of Jobs Report
Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the...
Predictable, Rules‑based Mega‑regional Pacts Lure Nations Away From Superpowers
EU, CPTPP & USMCA are deep mega regionals but latter no longer rules-based. Nations seeking to diversify away from the giants are attracted by arrangements that 1) are rules-based & have worked for years, 2) don’t involve US or CN,...
President Trump Imposes 100% Tariffs on Branded Pharmaceuticals
President Trump has announced 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceutical products that lack a Most‑Favored Nation (MFN) agreement with his administration. The tariffs will take effect in 120 days for large firms and 180 days for smaller ones, while imports from...
Geopolitics Drive Record US Oil Exports and Price Surge
🎯 Following the Hormuz Crisis, U.S. exports of petroleum products surged to a record high last month as Europe suffers for high diesel and jet fuel prices, while Venezuela’s crude oil exports reached their highest level in six years. 🎯Following Trump's...
M'tourist Private Feed Recap
Kevin Muir’s April 2, 2026 private feed recap offers subscribers exclusive macroeconomic charts and commentary via a gated link. The post, marked as paid content, directs readers to a curated dashboard that aggregates recent market data, policy shifts, and trend analyses. While...
Mosaic and Simplot Maintain Support for Fertilizer Tariffs
Mosaic and Simplot have filed support to keep countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate fertilizers during the five‑year sunset review, seeking higher rates than the current 16.6%‑47% range. The duties, imposed in 2021 to offset foreign subsidies, are under...
U.K. Hosts Coalition Talks to Reopen Hormuz—Without the U.S.
The United Kingdom convened virtual talks with over 40 nations to form a coalition aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since its war began on Feb. 28. The United States was absent, with President Trump...
Proterial Ltd. Targets India's Rare‑Earth Magnet Incentive to Cut China Dependence
Japan’s Proterial Ltd., owned by a Bain Capital‑led consortium, is weighing participation in India’s newly announced incentive scheme for rare‑earth magnet production. The move signals a strategic push to shift part of the supply chain out of China and into...
Paul Krugman Smacks Down Trump Speech with Argument that $4 Gas Is ‘Less than Half’ of the Hormuz Hit. Here’s...
President Trump told the nation the United States does not rely on the Strait of Hormuz for oil, trying to calm markets after his ambiguous pledge to hit Iran hard. Nobel economist Paul Krugman countered that gasoline represents less than...
Morgan Stanley’s Defensive Playbook for Spiking Oil Prices Amid Iran War
Morgan Stanley is urging investors to adopt a defensive stance as the Iran‑Israel conflict pushes oil prices sharply higher. West Texas Intermediate futures surged more than 11% to $111.54 per barrel, the highest close since June 2022, while Brent rose...
Rubio Raises Concerns over China’s Detention of Panama-Flagged Ships
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that China’s heightened inspections of Panama‑flagged vessels pose a serious threat to global trade. He said the detentions and delays undermine the rule of law in Panama and destabilize supply chains. The United...
Administration Adjusts Metals Tariffs
President Donald Trump signed a proclamation revising the 2025 steel, aluminum and copper tariffs. Derivative products containing less than 15% metal are now duty‑free, while those above that threshold see the rate drop from 50% to 25% and are assessed...
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2008, Surpassing War Levels
From Bloomberg: “The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008. Dated Brent, the price of shipments bought and sold in the North Sea, reached $141.37, surpassing levels seen when Russia invaded...
The Next Global Food Crisis Has Already Begun
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran has choked a key maritime route for fertilizer shipments, pushing nitrogen and phosphate prices up 20‑40 percent. Rising transport costs and insurance premiums are forcing farmers in...
Trump Must End War, Iran Open Hormuz to Curb Prices
The only way to stop an economic spiral is for Trump to end the war and for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. The longer he delays, the longer Americans will struggle with higher oil—and gas—prices. @morningjoe
Walton Global Courts Investors For U.S. Fund As Money Starts Shifting Away From Gulf
Walton Global has launched the U.S. Land Income & Growth Fund, a Shariah‑compliant vehicle aimed at offshore investors, especially in Asia and the Middle East. The fund seeks to acquire undeveloped, pre‑entitled land in high‑growth U.S. markets such as Dallas‑Fort Worth,...
War and Inflation Likely Cancel Fed Rate Cuts This Year
Markets were expecting two to three rate cuts from the Fed this year until Trump’s War in Iran began to wreak financial havoc. With inflation picking up, it looks like we might not get any rate cuts at all this...
Venezuela's Inflation Remains World's Highest at 548%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 548.6%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. https://t.co/x1zOmOWtIF
India Inc Seeks Export Ban on Key Inputs, QCO Relief
Industry bodies, led by FICCI, have asked the Indian government to impose a temporary export ban on critical raw materials such as sulphur and non‑essential helium, while also relaxing Quality Control Orders to ease sourcing for SMEs. They propose fast‑track...
Geopolitical Oil Spikes Usually Brief, Sometimes Linger on Markets
GS: Most historical oil spikes linked to geopolitical shocks had a temporary impact, but some weighed on equities and bonds for longer https://t.co/Vxa6K0Dhkc
Energy
GS: 10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks faces a Balanced Bear The energy shock results in a pickup in inflation as well as weaker growth and less policy easing After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but...
GCC Chief Urges UN to Halt Iranian Attacks, Protect Gulf Waterways
Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary‑General Jassim al‑Budaiwi appealed to the UN Security Council to halt Iran's daily missile and drone strikes across the Gulf and to safeguard uninterrupted navigation through strategic waterways. He warned that Iran's attacks have already disrupted the...
AI Bad for Writing, Great for Hawkish Speech Scoring
Kinda mixed feelings about using AI. For writing it’s definitely bad. But I think it’s totally fine to use an LLM to gauge which of two (anonymized) FOMC speeches is more hawkish (macro context dependent) and repeat that thousands of...
US Hits Record Petroleum, Naphtha, LNG Exports Post‑Hormuz
Most recent interview.... Note: New record highs for the US after the closure of Hormuz: 🎯Export of petroleum products 🎯Exports of Naphtha 🎯Exports of LNG
As Oil Shortages Deepen, Wartime Rationing Offers a Guide for Today’s Governments
The U.S.-Iran conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly eight million barrels of oil per day—about eight percent of global demand—and driving prices sharply higher. In response, the Philippines, South Sudan and Mauritius have declared emergencies or begun...
Trump Increases Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, Copper
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strengthens Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Imports – The White House https://t.co/IXDEgVOFVH
White House Tightens Controls on Aluminum, Steel, Copper Imports
Strengthening Actions Taken to Adjust Imports of Aluminum, Steel, and Copper Into the United States – The White House https://t.co/K1KguBjwkT
Video: Economic Flash April 2026
The April 2026 Economic Flash video highlights how ongoing geopolitical conflict, surging energy costs, and lingering supply‑chain disruptions are amplifying volatility across global equity and bond markets. Andrew Whitney points to unexpected price swings in real assets, including commodities and...
Trump’s Tariffs Reversed Within a Week After
Happy Liberation Day anniversary. Exactly a year ago - to the hour - President Trump announced the range of tariffs against a wide range of trade partners. He reverse course 7 days later following a steep market tumble
Japan's Public Debt Fuels Massive Sovereign Carry Trade
amazing writeup on japan's public sector balance sheet, net debt, and massive sovereign carry trade. https://t.co/JTMMXBfCKu
Nowcast, Tracking of Private Domestic Final Demand (Aka “Core GDP”)
The Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs nowcast shows private domestic final demand, often called “core GDP,” is decelerating. The latest chart reveals growth falling below the 2023‑24 stochastic trend and the March Survey of Professional Forecasters median. All nowcasts rely...
Trump’s “Strongest Economy” Claim Clashes with Modest Growth
Trump says he built the "strongest economy in history". TRUMP = HASN’T LOOKED AT THE DATA. USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2024 = 2.8%/yr USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2025 = 2.1%/yr. https://t.co/ZEBSTs32ra
Losing the Petro‑dollar Could Wreck US Economy
The U.S. economy and dollar will collapse if we don't pull out of Iran effectively. Higher interest rates are already set to cost us an additional $400 billion+ by 2028. If we lose the petro-dollar... Kaboom. https://t.co/MxLBztAy4Y
Wall Street's Pivot to April Not Without Drama
Wall Street closed a brutal Q1 with all three major indexes posting weekly gains, despite a volatile finish driven by President Donald Trump’s polarizing address and persistently high oil prices. Big‑tech names such as Apple, Nvidia and Marvell dominated headlines,...
No Deal Imminent; Hormuz Likely Stays Closed This Weekend
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think we’re anywhere close to having a “deal” or the strait of Hormuz opening anytime soon. This 3 day weekend could be a absolute sh-t show and almost expect it to be...
Trump’s Absurd Oil Advice Reveals Twisted Pretzel Logic
Trump's "advice" to nations that are suffering from the US-Israeli war of choice that closed the Strait of Hormuz: "Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just take [the oil]. Iran has been decimated... so it should...
Why India Should Leverage BRICS to Call for Ceasefire in West Asia
India, serving as BRICS chair for 2026, was urged by Iran’s president to use the forum to broker a cease‑fire after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory. Despite the war’s spread to Gulf Cooperation Council states, BRICS has remained...
US Blames China for Harassing Panama‑Flagged Ships
The US accused China of harassing and detaining #Panama-flagged ships after the Central American nation struck down contracts with a Hong Kong conglomerate operating ports on both sides of the Panama Canal. https://t.co/l49JKUezz4