Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
EU Lawmakers Press China on Unsafe Products and Market access...China Takes Spot From Japan as Australia’s Top Auto supplier...China’s EV...
EU lawmakers confronted Chinese officials in Beijing over a wave of unsafe, non‑compliant products and limited market access for European firms, highlighting consumer safety and forced‑labour concerns. In February, China overtook Japan as Australia’s top source of imported vehicles, capturing a 25% share and signaling a shift in regional auto supply chains. March saw a sharp rebound in Chinese EV sales, driven by renewed local subsidies and aggressive financing that lifted BYD deliveries by nearly 58% month‑on‑month. Meanwhile, Premier Li Qiang urged a new AI‑enabled power grid to bolster energy security, and ByteDance’s Volcengine sponsored the OpenClaw AI‑agent framework, expanding its cloud footprint.
Middle East War Will Raise Your Milk Price
The milk in your fridge this week may cost more next month. Not because of the dairy farm. Because of a war in the Middle East that nobody told you would reach this far.
Hormuz Blockade Driving a Gulf Logistics Revolution
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forced Gulf states to fast‑track a network of alternative logistics corridors, including the Oman‑UAE Green Corridor, a Saudi‑UAE trade bridge, and the Gulf Shuttle maritime service. New ultra‑heavy‑lift cranes, expanded rail capacity and...
Fed's Oversized Balance Sheet Undermines Inflation Goals
The essay from Lorie Logan is excellent. Unfortunately the tradeoffs of balance sheet size vs public good have been and continue to be mistakenly biased to narrow goals and miss the big picture which remains a failure of the...
Former South African Finance Minister Calls for African Renewal Amid Shifting World Order
Former South African finance minister Trevor Manuel warned that soaring oil prices from Middle‑East conflict are amplifying energy and food shocks across Africa, threatening the continent’s poorest households. Speaking at the Adebayo Adedeji Lecture in Tangier, he urged finance ministers...
‘Liberation Day’ Anniversary, War on Iran, Taiwan’s KMT Visits Beijing
China commemorated the anniversary of its Liberation Day with large‑scale patriotic displays and a televised military parade, underscoring Beijing’s emphasis on national unity. At the same time, Chinese officials issued stark warnings to the United States and its allies over...
Splash Wrap: Hormuz Bells Are Ringing
Iran’s parliament approved a formal toll and access regime for the Strait of Hormuz, signalling a new revenue stream and heightened navigation controls amid the ongoing US‑Israeli conflict. Satellite images confirmed severe damage to Russia’s key Baltic energy‑export ports after...
Global Oil Surge Drives Pakistan's Rising Petrol Prices
Not sure why people are criticizing the government so much over the petrol price, but the truth is that petrol prices haven’t just increased in Pakistan—they’ve risen globally. Prices in the international market have gone from around $65 to $120,...
The Middle East’s Butterfly Effect on the Global Economy
Gulf sovereign wealth funds now control roughly $4.9 trillion and are projected to exceed $7 trillion by 2030, making the region a top global capital allocator. Recent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz cut oil shipments, sending crude above $100 a barrel...
Is the US Dollar Collapse Imminent?
The episode examines whether a collapse of the US dollar is imminent, focusing on how recent Middle East conflicts have accelerated the shift of some nations toward trading oil in currencies like the yuan, ruble, or cryptocurrencies to avoid US...
Hyundai Motor Flags Export Disruptions as West Asia Conflict Hits Shipping
Hyundai Motor warned that its exports to Europe and North Africa are being disrupted as the West Asia conflict blocks key shipping routes. The blockage has driven up freight costs, forced cargo diversions, and pressured parts suppliers with raw‑material constraints....
Trump's 25% Metal Tariff Reshapes Supply
Trump’s new metal tariff policy applies a 25pc flat rate on many derivative imports and reshapes downstream costs. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/trump-metal-tariff-policy-reshapes.html
Hormuz as Precedent
The UN Security Council is set to vote on Bahrain’s revised resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, replacing the original language that authorized "all necessary means" with a more limited, defensive clause. China, which had opposed the initial draft,...
Australia Slowdown Signals Tougher Operating Environment for Corporates
Deloitte Access Economics warns that Australia’s economy will decelerate sharply, with real GDP growth projected to fall from 2.6% in 2025 to about 1.8% by the end of 2026 and modest 1.9% growth in 2026‑27. Inflation is expected to peak...
Iran War Could Spur Europe to Double Down on Renewables — Again
The Iran war has halted Qatar’s liquefied natural gas output, sending EU gas prices soaring and reviving the bloc’s energy‑security alarm. EU energy chief Dan Jørgensen urged member states to accelerate renewable construction, echoing the post‑Ukraine‑invasion push. Between 2021 and 2025...
French and Japanese-Owned Ships Make First Hormuz Crossings
On April 3, 2026, the French‑flagged container vessel CMA CGM Kribi became the first Western European‑registered ship to navigate the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran‑related conflict began a month earlier. On the same day, Mitsui OSK Lines confirmed that its partially owned LNG...
US Tariff Uncertainty Pushes Indian Exporters to More Stable Markets Like Japan
Indian textile exporters are facing near‑impossible conditions in the United States after a Supreme Court decision overturned Trump‑era tariffs and a new 10% global duty was imposed. The uncertainty has forced manufacturers to cut production, lay off workers, and accept...
Momentum Builds for Local Drug Production
Africa imports over 70% of its medicines and 99% of its vaccines, leaving the continent vulnerable to supply shocks. The local pharmaceutical sector is modest, with roughly 375 manufacturers compared with thousands in China and India, and most firms only...
Escalating Conflicts Spread From Regional to Global
It doesn’t de-escalate. That’s the uncomfortable reality. These phases don’t resolve quickly, and they don’t reverse easily. Pressure builds. Friction increases. More actors get pulled in. And over time, what looked regional starts to connect. That’s how it spreads. More on the website. #Geopolitics #Macro #GlobalRisk #Strategy #War
Gold's Decline Signals Hidden Deflation Amid Tight Liquidity
Nobody wanted to sell when gold and silver were at their most overbought levels in years. Now, everyone will worry about how much more selling is left to fund the geopolitical crisis that is engulfing countries around the world. In...
Transcript: Economic Warfare — Lessons From History, with Mark Harrison
The Economics Show hosted by Soumaya Keynes examined the effectiveness of economic warfare with historian Mark Harrison, who traced its evolution from revenue‑denial blockades in the 18th century to modern supply‑chain sanctions. He highlighted the Allied blockade that helped force...
US Asia Imports Drop in February Amid AI Surge
US imports from Asia fell in February despite rising AI buildout demand https://t.co/Hg52XqzW8J via @NikkeiAsia
Traders Increase Bets on UK Rate Hikes This Year
Traders added to wagers that UK interest rates will rise this year https://t.co/MMX4qogHde via @highisland @alicegledhill1 https://t.co/2awWhutl3G
Tokenization Makes Finance More Efficient but Introduces Risks: IMF
The International Monetary Fund warned that while tokenization can cut friction and boost transparency, it also introduces financial‑stability risks. About $27.6 billion of real‑world assets are already tokenized on‑chain, with forecasts ranging from $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030. The IMF highlighted...
China Adds Household Income Boost to Top Policy
1/12 Caixin: "For the first time, China has embedded a dedicated plan to raise household incomes into a top-level national policy document, signaling a change in priorities as policymakers grapple with persistently weak consumer spending." https://t.co/ynrYu49v8R
Q1 2026 Dim Sum Issuance Rises 14% to 400bn Yuan
Caixin: "For the first quarter of 2026, dim sum issuance totaled nearly 400 billion yuan, up 14% from a year earlier." https://t.co/yksX2koWPr
Moving the Goalposts: The Changing Objectives of Industrial Policy
A new EBRD study of over 31,000 industrial policies across 150 economies (2009‑2022) shows a clear shift toward multi‑objective programs, often blending goals that can conflict. Environmental targets dominate in Western nations, while supply‑security aims are prevalent in economies aligned...
Kremlin Says Strait of Hormuz Open for Russia
MOSCOW, April 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz was open for Russia.
GDP Growth Differs Under Hard Vs. Soft Budget Constraints
In my latest piece for Carnegie, I explain why GDP growth in economies that mainly operate under hard budget constraints is not comparable to GDP growth in countries, like China, in which a large part of the economy operates under...
How China Reinvented the BRI
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) rebounded in 2025, reaching $213.5 billion in project value and surpassing its 2016 peak. China’s foreign trade hit $6.3 trillion, delivering a record $1.2 trillion surplus. The BRI has been repurposed from pure infrastructure to a tool...
U.S. Consumes More Crude Than It Produces, Remains Net Importer
The US is a net importer of crude oil. It consumes more crude oil than it produces, it doesn't have crude oil to sell to the world. https://t.co/OuDErnkSc9
What the Iran War Will Cost Britain
Britain faces the steepest energy‑cost impact from the Iran war despite importing little oil or gas through the Strait of Hormuz. Pre‑war, the UK already endured the highest industrial energy prices among G7 nations, a grid strained by intermittent offshore...
Tanker Shipping Market Very Tight Due to Dislocation of Tonnage
A New York panel convened by NYMAR and YSPNY warned that tanker markets have become exceptionally tight after the onset of Operation Epic Fury, which displaced VLCCs and forced Suezmaxes and Aframaxes onto Asian routes. Panelists highlighted Asia’s heightened dependence on Middle‑East crude...
Nominal Trade Rebounds: Exports Surge, Imports Match Biden Levels
A thread on the February 2026 trade data, with some answers and some questions -- Both nominal imports and nominal exports (ex petrol) are growing again -- with surprising strength in nominal exports and nominal imports back at their end Biden...
7‑11% Oil Cut Triggers Systemic Economic Collapse
A 7–11% loss of oil supply is beyond what the global economy can absorb, says @LukeGromen It’s not a recession risk—it’s systemic failure. The only uncertainty is where the break shows up first, not whether it happens.
China Is Taking on Mining Giants to Reorder a $190 Billion Market – by Alfred Cang and Katharine Gemmell (MSN.com...
China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), a central‑government entity, is confronting BHP Group in a high‑stakes battle over iron‑ore pricing, aiming to convert China’s massive consumption into pricing power. The dispute centers on the $190 billion global iron‑ore market, the world’s most...
Central Banks' Inflation Mood Puzzle: More Judgment than Science
Central banks are grappling with how to gauge inflation expectations as an Iran‑driven energy shock filters through the economy. Traditional surveys and market indicators prove too slow, prompting policymakers to rely more on judgment and real‑time qualitative data. New tools—such...
India's Markets Crash Wipes Out $126 Bn of Investor Wealth
Indian stocks slumped more than 2% on April 2, with the Sensex and Nifty each losing over 2% and total market capitalisation shedding about ₹10.45 lakh crore (≈$126 bn). The plunge was driven by heightened West‑Asia tensions, a record foreign‑institutional outflow and soaring oil...
Sanctity Lost: Even Neocon Pantheon Declares US a 'Rogue Superpower'
Robert Kagan, a leading neoconservative, published an Atlantic op‑ed calling the United States a "rogue superpower" amid escalating tensions with Iran. He argues that U.S. military actions aim to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, not because of direct threat,...
Kazakhstan's Central Bank Sells $400 Million to Bolster Tenge as Oil Prices Rise
Kazakhstan's National Bank sold $400 million from the National Fund in March, using the proceeds to support the budget and shore up the tenge, which rose 3.9% to 478 per dollar. The move, accounting for about 6% of daily FX volume,...
Australian ASX Extends Three-Day Rally to 8,707, Eyes 2% Weekly Gain
Australian shares jumped 36 points (0.4%) to 8,707 in early Thursday trade, extending a three‑session rally fueled by U.S. market strength and optimism over a de‑escalation of the Middle East conflict. The rally lifted the ASX 200 about 2% for...
India’s First Iranian Oil Shipment Rerouted to China
🇮🇳While the media highlighted India's first Iranian oil shipment in recent years, Kpler tracking now shows the vessel has been redirected to China. Will get an update tomorrow. Map form @Kpler
Iran Can Stop Shipping With Mines, From the Gulf to the Red Sea
Iran retains a stock of roughly 5,000‑6,000 sea mines capable of threatening both military and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf. The mines, ranging from ground‑influence to floating types, can be laid from civilian boats,...
U.S. Brands Face Sharp Decline in Chinese Sales
American companies are flailing in China. This week, Nike said revenue there was down by a double-digit percentage and poised to get worse. California clothing brand Guess just closed down all its stores in China. @JonathanEmont https://t.co/Pv10jKnLUy https://t.co/Pv10jKnLUy
Japan Services PMI Eases with Cost Pressures Rising and Confidence Weakening
Japan’s services sector continued expanding in March but its momentum eased, with the S&P Global Services PMI slipping to 53.4 from 53.8. New orders fell to a three‑month low while input‑price inflation surged, driven by higher energy costs and the...
U.S. Targets 69 Million‑Acre Pacific Seabed Near Guam in Rare‑Earth Race with China
The U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management announced a plan to lease 69 million acres of Pacific seabed near Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands for deep‑sea mining. The move, aimed at reducing reliance on China for...
India's FX Reserves Drop $11.4B to $698B Amid Gold Sell‑off
India’s foreign‑exchange reserves shrank by $11.4 billion to $698 billion for the week ending March 20, 2026, after a sharp decline in gold holdings. The drop follows a record peak of $728.5 billion two weeks earlier and coincides with heightened geopolitical tension and a...
Fixed‑Income ETFs Poised for Fed Decision as Yield Spreads Tighten
Analysts spotlight the State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and BlackRock's iShares fixed‑income ETFs as top picks before the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision. With KRE offering a 2.4% yield and iShares navigating higher oil prices, the debate...
Nomura Cuts India Rating to Neutral, Urges Shift to Korea and China Amid Oil Spike
Nomura has downgraded Indian equities to Neutral from Overweight, warning that soaring energy costs, AI lag and a slowdown in domestic inflows could pressure valuations. The broker also flagged $61.2 bn of foreign outflows and suggested investors re‑allocate to Korean equities,...
Kudlow -Thursday, April 2
On Thursday, April 2, Fox Business aired a special episode of Larry Kudlow's program, featuring a roundtable on domestic and global economic policies. The show highlighted a presidential address and an interview with former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi focusing...