Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Senators Urge Trump to Bar Chinese Automakers From Building Cars in US
Three Democratic senators—Tammy Baldwin, Elissa Slotkin and Chuck Schumer—urged President Donald Trump to bar Chinese automakers from building vehicles in the United States and from importing cars assembled in Mexico or Canada. They cite national‑security risks and an unfair competitive edge, despite existing 100 percent tariffs and growing consumer interest. The Biden administration already banned Chinese passenger‑car sales in 2025 over data‑privacy concerns, a move backed by U.S. automakers. Republicans are also proposing legislation to seal the market entirely, highlighting bipartisan resistance to Chinese auto entry.
Curb Your (Job Market) Enthusiasm
In this Inside Economics episode, Mark Zandi and co‑hosts Marissa Di Natale and Chris Dorides dissect the March 2026 jobs report, highlighting a volatile payroll picture—178,000 jobs added after a revised February loss of 133,000—and a modest three‑month average gain...
Uzbekistan Advances $40 Million Aviagen Poultry Project, Boosting Emerging‑market Agriculture
Uzbekistan announced it is pushing ahead with a $40 million poultry project backed by U.S. firm Aviagen. The investment aims to modernise the country's egg and meat production, create jobs and deepen ties with Western agribusiness. Analysts see the deal as...
Euro Stocks Slip as US‑Iran Tensions Surge; FTSE 100 Defies Downturn
European markets fell on Friday as heightened US‑Iran tensions dragged the pan‑European Stoxx 600 down 0.28% to 595.99 points. The UK’s FTSE 100 bucked the trend, climbing 0.7% to 10,436.29, buoyed by reports of a new Iran‑Oman protocol for the...
The World’s Leading Chocolate Country: Not Belgium but the Netherlands
The Netherlands has become the world’s top exporter of cocoa products, overtaking Germany in 2024 and solidifying its lead in 2025. Export revenues surged from €4.2 bn in 2020 to €12.4 bn in 2025, a near‑threefold increase that adds roughly €3 bn ($3.3 bn)...
Romania Deploys €1 Billion to Shield Leu Amid Global Market Turmoil
Romania’s central bank intervened with more than €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in March to support the leu amid a market rout sparked by the Middle East conflict. The move underscores the fragility of smaller European currencies and the lengths sovereigns will go...
U.S. Stock Exchanges Shut for Good Friday as Strong Jobs Data Highlights Economic Resilience
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq were closed on Friday, April 3, 2026, in observance of Good Friday. The shutdown came after the Labor Department reported a robust March jobs gain of 178,000 and a drop in unemployment to...
Fuel Crisis Pushes Indonesia Toward Perilous Policy Trade‑offs
A terrific piece from my #CarnegieAsia teammate @sdjaffrey on how the fuel crisis is forcing politically perilous trade-offs in Indonesia. As conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel costs across Asia, Indonesia faces difficult policy trade-offs over subsidies, inflation,...
Trump Loses Grip as Oil Surge Signals Deeper Crisis
Oil prices surged past $140 a barrel as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions reignited market bullishness, pushing WTI and Brent to levels not seen since 2008. OPEC+ is weighing a 206,000‑barrel‑per‑day production increase for May, despite most members having cut output amid...
HUL, Dabur, Asian Paints Likely to See Margin Pressure on Rising Crude and Input Costs: Axis Securities
Axis Securities warns that the US‑Iran conflict‑driven surge in crude oil and LNG prices will compress margins across FMCG, paints, quick‑service restaurants and retail. Crude has risen over 60% since late February, while India imports about 85% of its oil...
Saudi Arabia Drops Export Verification for US Beef
The Saudi Food and Drug Authority announced that U.S. beef shipments will no longer need to undergo the Export Verification (EV) Program, and the kingdom now permits bovine‑derived tallow in animal feed. The policy shift removes a barrier that has...
Explainer: Behind China’s Detention Doctrine Against Panama
China’s “detention doctrine” is not a direct pressure campaign against Panama, but a broader strategy that underwrites its worldwide port portfolio. By leveraging legal claims and financial stakes in key terminals such as Panama’s Port of Balboa, Beijing can detain...
War Often Spurs Market Gains, Not Losses
Most people think war = bad time to invest. History says the opposite. Markets have actually performed better during major conflicts. And “waiting it out” can cost you major gains. I broke it down with real data. Reply “war” and I’ll DM you the video.
Economist Slok Sees ‘Nike Swoosh’ Recovery for US
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok predicts a "Nike swoosh" recovery for the U.S. economy, citing a three‑month average of 68,000 jobs—well above the Federal Reserve’s 10,000 break‑even threshold. He points to three emerging tailwinds: accelerated AI‑related data‑center spending, an industrial...
Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike...
Why a War in the Middle East Is Hitting Australians at the Petrol Pump
Escalating tensions between Iran and regional rivals are reverberating in Australia as oil markets tighten. Treasury modelling predicts the conflict could lift inflation by about 1.25 percentage points and shave roughly 0.6% off medium‑term GDP growth. Fuel prices may spike...
The New Global Challenges Facing Made in Italy
The latest Mimit report, released ahead of National Made in Italy Day, highlights Italy’s ability to thrive in a post‑pandemic world despite heightened geopolitical tensions and supply‑chain fragility. Export diversification and market breadth have kept Italy among the top exporters,...
TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab Upgrade: A Security-Driven Reconfiguration of Indo-Pacific Chip Competition
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will upgrade its Kumamoto, Japan fab to a 3‑nanometer process, targeting 15,000 12‑inch wafers per month and mass production by 2028. The $20 billion investment, backed by $4.62 billion in Japanese subsidies and equity from Sony, Denso...
Roku TVs Could Be Banned in The US As A US Trade Panel Probes Them For Patent Violations
The U.S. International Trade Commission has launched a Section 337 investigation into Roku and Hisense display devices after InnoTV Labs claimed the products infringe its streaming‑technology patents. The probe, opened on April 1, 2026, could lead to a limited exclusion order that bars...
The USMCA Review Is Shaping up to Be a Grind, Not a Grand Bargain
The six‑year USMCA review, due July 1, is shaping up to be a protracted negotiation likely spilling into 2027. Mexico is leaning into deeper U.S. integration while Canada hedges by diversifying trade partners, creating divergent bargaining positions. Washington is pressing for...
What Markets Have Learned Since Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs
One year after President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariffs, U.S. equities suffered their worst one‑day sell‑off since 2020, with the Dow plunging nearly 1,700 points and a second drop approaching 2,000 points the following day. Tech giants Apple and Nvidia...
March Jobs Data Removes Fed Trade‑off Pressure
What does the March jobs report mean for the Fed? It keeps one of the harder problems off the table. Powell said this week the war created the possibility of a greater inflation/labor market tradeoff but said the Fed didn't face...
Trump Pushes Higher Defense Spending Amid Slowing Growth
During the Clinton reign (1993-2001), US defense spending fell from 4.3% to 2.9% of GDP - while GDP SOARED at 4.0%/year. As the economy slumps to 2.1%/yr GDP growth, Trump proposes to increase the defense budget from ~3.0% to 5.0% of...
Why Australia Should Not Participate in a Trump-Led Invasion of Iran
Australia should reject any Trump‑led invasion of Iran, according to a recent analysis. The piece argues that strategic ambiguity in U.S. policy, Australia’s limited military reach, and the absence of a clear end‑state make participation too risky. It also highlights...
Chinese Government Bonds Stand Out as War Safe Haven
Chinese government bonds emerge as lone war haven. More on this in today's version of the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/jQYKfLr6kx
France Considers Targeted Fuel Aid Amid Iran War
France weighs targeted fuel aid as Iran war pushes up costs https://t.co/cq1BDGxOCP via @WHorobin https://t.co/XDxJyMTgxY
One Year After ‘Liberation Day,’ Tariffs Reshape Global Trade Landscape
April 2, 2025 marked "Liberation Day," when the U.S. invoked the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs on most trading partners. The tariffs aimed to shrink the trade deficit, curb fentanyl inflows, and boost domestic manufacturing, but...
Egypt's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Excessive Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 13.4%/yr. That’s above its inflation target of 3-7%/yr. Egypt’s money supply just came in at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Europe's War Reluctance Grows Amid China Economic Ties
If Europe wouldn't assist in a war with a regime that every leader has condemned that has been left nearly powerless, there is little chance they would support a war against China where strong economic and supply chain dependancies exist
Trends in General Inflation and Farm Input Prices
The study compares long‑term general inflation with agricultural input prices from 1973 to 2025, finding that farm inputs rose at an average 4.1 % annually versus 3.4 % for the PCE deflator. Correlation between the two series is moderate (0.59), but input...
Iran's Oil Revenues Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
Are Oil Tankers Moving Through Hormuz Again?
The Strait of Hormuz, once handling roughly 100 east‑to‑west crude tankers daily, saw traffic collapse amid the Iran conflict, prompting concerns about global oil supply. Analysts now question whether tanker movements have resumed, as the region remains a critical chokepoint...
US Iran Strike Sparks Red Market, Treasuries Bleed
March 2, 2025. The market opens to a sea of red following news of a U.S. attack on the Iranian regime. Treasuries bleed in anticipation of inflationary supply shocks. Trend-following strategies are in disarray. What's up with carry? by @jordonezjr https://t.co/oeugyTwcEN https://t.co/2Oq7Njel14
Global Trade at Crossroads: Autonomy Replaces Win‑Win
#tradeXpresso: Global trade is at a crossroads. Tariffs 📈. Weaponised dependencies. Collapsing WTO norms. The win-win logic is replaced by strategic autonomy & zero-sum thinking. Three futures for global trade. Which path are we on? https://t.co/lGxTVEATfb #TradePolicy30 https://t.co/2eDwAvKjMM
March Workweek Dip Stalls Payroll Growth, 12‑month Rise at 3.9%
From the March payroll report: INCOMES: A drop in the average workweek in March led to very little growth in the index of aggregate weekly payrolls for private-sector workers (which combines hiring, wages, and hours). The 12-month change ticked down to...
Markets Now Directly Drive Consumer Prices, Lag Vanishes
Yet another example of the shrinking time lag between market price changes and consumer price changes. While the market may not be the economy, what is becoming all too clear is that the economy is now the markets.
White House Adviser Cites Futures: Energy Prices Falling
“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett https://t.co/RCHUpjLhW2
US Services PMI Shows Declining Activity, Slowing Hiring
"Business activity declines amid higher inflation and war in the Middle East ... Employment down amid weakest rise in new work for nearly two years" - S&P US Services PMI https://t.co/4ESKcLv1IC
Trump's Exaggerated Claim: Iran's Forces Far From Destroyed
Trump said, "[Iran's] navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten." Typical -- Trump's rhetoric doesn't match reality. https://t.co/Tu24oA8RNH
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Italy Prolongs Iran War Fuel Tax Cut, Costing €500 Million
Italy extends Iran war fuel-tax cut at the cost of €500 million https://t.co/7xt4Nt9sDu via @donatopmancini https://t.co/Pgpw2aMYNs
US Data Center Buildout Fueled by Imported Components, Ignoring Tariffs
Pretty good Bloomberg look at the imports powering (pun intended) the US data center buildout, but it omits mention of US tariffs (AD/CVD, 232s, etc) - some dating back more than a decade - on large power transformers, electrical steel,...
Iran Turns to Euro, France Pays in Yuan
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
Ex‑Iranian VP Urges Nuclear Limits, Hormuz Reopening, US Pact
Even a former Iranian VP says: Keep fighting & everyone loses He proposes: Iran limits its nuclear program & reopens Hormuz Full sanctions relief U.S. non-aggression pact. https://t.co/bbE9D1Zj4d #Iran #Geopolitics #Oil #EnergyCrisis
Oil at $150 Could Spark Global Recession, Warns BlackRock
BIG: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that oil prices reaching $150 could trigger a global recession https://t.co/0zsMPxObej
Ignore Noise, See Strong Economy and Industrial Recovery
Ignore the noise and focus on the signal. Our economy is doing well and industrials are recovering.
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...
Claim: US Entrepreneurial Dynamism Still Outpaces Pre‑2020 (Sarcastic)
Fortunately, you are probably not aware that the (assumed) level of entrepreneurial dynamism in the US labor market continues to exceed all periods prior to 2020... /s https://t.co/pbpkvBkZ3D
March Adds 178K Jobs, Double Forecast, Rivals 2025 Total
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March. This was over twice as high as the consensus of 60,000. For context, jobs added in March nearly matched the yearly total for all of 2025, when only 181,000 jobs were added. https://t.co/HhjdreSvui