Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
No Gas, No Grain: How Energy Shortages Feed Global Chaos
Energy shortages are tightening the link between fuel and food, as dwindling natural‑gas supplies curb fertilizer production and push grain yields lower. Recent OPEC output cuts and geopolitical tensions have driven natural‑gas prices up 40% year‑over‑year, squeezing agricultural margins. The resulting grain shortfalls have lifted global wheat and corn prices by more than 12%, sparking food‑security concerns in import‑dependent regions. Analysts warn that without a swift energy‑food decoupling strategy, the volatility could cascade into broader economic instability.
U.S. Slaps 100% Tariff on Patented Drug Imports, Prompting Industry Pushback
The United States announced a 100% tariff on imported patented pharmaceuticals and ingredients effective July 31, while exempting generic drugs. The move targets a market that accounts for roughly 40% of India’s pharma exports and has triggered swift responses from Indian...
Silver Slides 5% to $71/Oz After Trump’s Iran Threat, Outpacing Gold
Spot silver tumbled about 5% to $71.26 per ounce on April 2, driven by President Donald Trump’s promise to intensify military action against Iran. The drop was twice as steep as gold’s decline, reflecting silver’s dual role as a monetary and...
Energy Basics: US Isn’t Independent, Markets Global, Controls Fail
Chamath has repeatedly been wrong about energy issues — sometimes to a comical degree. He could have used a refresher on ECON 101. 🥁Here are three basic realities he seems to miss: 1- The United States has never been truly energy independent...
Hormuz Shutdown Tests Global Supply Resilience, Not Just Prices
A prolonged Hormuz closure is not mainly about whether wealthy countries can tolerate higher prices. It is about how long the global system can keep functioning before shortages begin to appear. https://t.co/ZnTkdfQu09
WATCH YOUR BIDS (S2026 E09)
The weekly "Watch Your Bids" newsletter recaps key macro themes, including Morgan Stanley’s bullish outlook on oil, Bank of America’s Aditya Bhave interpreting a surprisingly strong employment report, Bill Dudley’s cautionary remarks on the Federal Reserve’s tightening path, PGIM’s Mike...
Staggered Shocks Compound without Circuit Breaker
This unfolds in stages, writes @elerianm First energy and rates, then broader cost-of-living pressure, and then slower growth with rising financial instability. This isn’t a one-round shock. Without a circuit breaker, the damage compounds. #Economy #EnergyCrisis #Inflation #Geopolitics
U.S. Energy Dominance Myth: Still Tied to Gulf
US "energy dominance" was a slogan that doesn't fit reality Global energy markets—and the structure of oil flows—bind the U.S. to the Gulf. The U.S. can’t walk away from Hormuz—even if it wants to. https://t.co/K7rntZRxBf #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Hormuz
How Emerging Markets Borrow: New Evidence on Sovereign Bond Issuance
The authors analyze 75,000 sovereign bond auctions from 20 emerging‑market economies (2000‑2023) to uncover how timing decisions differ by currency. Local‑currency issuances closely track refinancing needs, while foreign‑currency issuances are driven by global financial conditions, investor sentiment, and terms‑of‑trade shocks....
Russia's Ammonium Nitrate Export Halt Shocks Supply Chain
This matters—but it’s 11 days old @gaurav_kochar @KellyAlspals Russia halted ammonium nitrate exports (≈40% of global trade). That shock is already moving through the system. If you’re just seeing it now, you’re late. #Commodities #SupplyChain #EnergyCrisis
Oil's Necessity Forces Nations to Negotiate Iran Passage
Reality is setting in. Oil has to flow—and countries will deal with Iran to get it. Ships aren’t passing freely. They’re negotiating passage. That’s the new order. https://t.co/C8UjfpGovY #Oil #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Risks Of Another Financial Crisis
The note outlines how extreme indebtedness and shrinking global liquidity create a fragile financial system, emphasizing the circular link between debt and liquidity. It focuses on the debt‑maturity cycle as a primary transmission mechanism for crises, arguing that risks are...
Vietnam's Q1 GDP Growth Slows to 7.83%
JUST IN: Vietnam's GDP expanded by 7.83% year-over-year in Q1, down from 8.46% in Q4.
Money Supply Growth Matches Target Inflation Range
Australia's consumer price inflation is 3.7%/yr. Australia's broad money supply grew at 7.4%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3-8.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Australia's target inflation rate of 2-3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/aYQzJ8foVn
Pharma Tariffs Pressuring Smaller Companies to Do MFN Deals
BioCentury’s website now outlines a comprehensive cookie framework that classifies cookies into five distinct groups: strictly necessary, functional, marketing, advertising, and analytics. Each category serves a specific purpose, from enabling authentication and core site functions to gathering anonymous usage metrics...
ADNOC Underscores Hormuz's Vital Role in Global Energy
Adnoc is buying ads to stress the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy flows Adnoc can’t export LNG and other fuels to customers in Asia and Europe without going through Hormuz https://t.co/F4fehuRnDr
Media Overlooked Revised February Job Loss Spike
In reporting the good jobs numbers for March, the media failed to pick up on the fact that the job losses in February were revised UP from 92,000 lost jobs to 133,000 lost jobs. https://t.co/haZXRUFU55
Is the Strait of Hormuz Opening up Again?
The episode examines the tentative reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption caused by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, highlighting the first Western container ship and a Japanese LNG carrier to transit the route. Captain John Conrad of GCaptain...
U.S.-Iran War Is Stranding Sailors In The Strait Of Hormuz
The U.S.-Iran conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, stranding roughly 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers in the Persian Gulf. The United Nations notes this is unprecedented in modern maritime history, as 19 attacks on civilian ships have already...
Global Data Pod Weekender: All’s Unclear that Ends Unclear
In this J.P. Morgan Weekender episode, Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dissect the latest U.S. labor market data, ongoing energy price shocks, and their implications for global growth. They highlight that while growth momentum remains supported by technology and business...
Ratification of EU-US Trade Deal Could Be Imminent Amid White House’s Latest Tariff Adjustments
The United States has revised tariffs on metals and pharmaceuticals, signaling a possible ratification of the long‑awaited EU‑U.S. trade agreement. New duties cap pharma tariffs at 15% for the EU, Japan, South Korea and 10% for the UK, while steel...
US Jobs Market Shifts From Steady Growth to Volatility
Taking the data at face value, the US labor market appears to have transitioned from a period of sustained, stable growth into a phase of significant volatility. Per the FT chart below, recent reports are characterized by sharp swings between job...
Will the Iran War Redraw the Global Energy Map?
The Iran‑Israel conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, instantly choking a key artery for global oil shipments. The disruption has triggered a sharp supply shock, pushing crude prices higher and exposing Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle‑East...
Stabilizing Foreign Investment: China’s Upgraded Industry Investment Guide
China’s National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce launched the 2025 Catalogue for Encouraged Industries for Foreign Investment on February 1, 2026, expanding the list to 1,679 entries – 205 new and 303 revised. The updated guide pivots...
The Weekender: From Headline Fatigue To Quiet Positioning Reset
Axi Select notes that market positioning has been dramatically trimmed, leaving fewer short sellers and a heightened reaction to positive news. Rate‑cut expectations appear overly hawkish, as investors underestimate the second‑phase slowdown that typically follows an energy‑driven inflation spike. Low...
China's Money Printing Matches
Everyone focuses on U.S. money printing. But China has quietly been just as aggressive—if not more.
Manufacturing Employment and Hours
Recent data show US labor‑force participation slipped to 61.9% in March, the lowest in over four years. Total non‑farm employment fell 1.14 million since December and is down 661,000 year‑over‑year, pushing the employment‑to‑population ratio to a 53‑month low of 59.2%. Manufacturing...
FMC Again Rejects Maersk Petition to Waive Notice Period for Emergency Fuel Surcharge
The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has again denied Maersk’s petition to waive the statutory 30‑day notice required before imposing an emergency bunker fuel surcharge on U.S. trades. The carrier’s request, filed on March 11, was unanimously rejected, meaning Maersk cannot apply...
2026 Jobs Data Shows Early Improvement Over 2025
As crazy as this sounds, the jobs data has improved in 2026 compared to 2025 so far. @housingwire @sarahteresa6 #housing #realestate #economics #jobs #chartdaddy
Textile Exporters Urge Govt to Waive Cotton Import Duty
Indian textile exporters have asked the government to suspend the 11% import duty on cotton, citing a recent 7‑8% rise in domestic cotton prices and an 11‑12% jump in ginned cotton costs. International cotton prices have also climbed 12‑15%, squeezing...
How the Iran War Could Scramble the Climate Tech Capital Stack
The Iran‑Iran war’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking oil exports, slashing revenues for Gulf sovereign wealth funds and oil‑backed venture arms. Those investors have been a major source of early‑stage climate‑tech capital, funding electric mobility, clean hydrogen,...
Spending Remains Strong; Demand Destruction Not Yet Evident
Friday shoutout to @joebrusuelas, chief economist at RSM, who has been doing some of the best analysis of the war in Iran's economic impact. The key question now is: When does the oil price shock trigger demand destruction? Joe has a great...
ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI Forecast Signals Rate‑Risk, Short Bills Hedge
Macro: ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI (exp 55.0) will set US growth/inflation tone. Key: new orders, employment, prices. Risk: hot print reprices rates. Trade: favor short bills to hedge duration. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Mideast Uncertainty Keeps Pressure on Equities
Asian equities stayed under pressure as the Middle East conflict dampened optimism, though the Thai SET index nudged up 0.5% to 1,454 points, supported by net buying of roughly $126 million from brokerages. Oil price fears linger, with European policymakers warning...
French-Owned Ship Passes Through Strait of Hormuz
A Malta‑flagged container ship owned by French carrier CMA CGM became the first major Western European vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the US‑Israeli war with Iran halted traffic. Iran has said “non‑hostile” ships may use the waterway, but...
Manufacturing Jobs May Rise Slightly, Yale Predicts
I do think its important to note it would not be shocking if manufacturing employment moves higher over the year. It is hard to say because of downstream losses from higher input costs, but factories are being completed. The Yale...
Trump Bluntly Admits War Driven by Oil
There was a time when the White House worked very hard to try to convince everyone that a war wasn’t about oil. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is crystal clear it’s about oil. https://t.co/XlAII7qvg6
Tariff Chaos Year Review: Disappointing Results, Shifting Goalposts
Excellent review of our recent, chart-filled @CatoInstitute piece on the last year of US tariff chaos, with some also-excellent additional commentary on tariff fans' goalpost-moving, cherry-picking, & misdirection.
Trump's Tariffs Accelerated US Manufacturing Job Losses
A year ago, Trump proclaimed that “Liberation Day” would be "the day American industry was reborn." Thanks to Trump's tariffs, US manufacturing job losses accelerated, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025. TARIFF MAN = HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA'S MANUFACTURING JOBS. https://t.co/3jvtsqZiBh
White House Simplifies Tariffs, but 50% Rates Stay Punitive
After months of lobbying by companies that were unfairly hit by tariffs, the White House consolidated and simplified metals tariffs. But, tariffs remain SKY-HIGH at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. The admin's changes were only window dressing. Tariff rates remain punitive....
Half Global Sulfur Flows Through Hormuz, Fueling Industry
John Dizard nailed this one in The Institutional Risk Analyst w/ @rcwhalen: "Most, around half, of sulfur in the world goes through the Strait of Hormuz. You need sulfuric acid in order to produce copper, steel, nickel...you really need it to...
US Regime Change Attempts Mostly Fail, Often Disastrous
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on regime changes: "Regime changes very rarely work... There have been about 70 regime change attempts by the US since WWII, & almost none have resulted in successful regime changes. The ones that ‘worked’ ended up in complete...
Capacity Glut Neutralizes Hormuz Shock, Rates Stall
Container Rates Stall as Capacity Glut Offsets Hormuz Shock. War. Geopolitics. Supply chains. Fill the ship with lower rates pricing game. https://t.co/Qli3djw5g9
Iran Refuses Pakistan Talks; Trump Demands More Time for Hormuz
Iran Unwilling To Meet US Negotiators In Pakistan, Talks At 'Dead End', As Trump Says 'A Little More Time' Needed To Open Hormuz: (ZeroHedge)
Trump’s New Steel/Aluminum Tariffs: Expert Session Essential
Yesterday President Trump made major changes to tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. If you import products subject to Section 232 duties on steel or aluminum, you will not want to miss our expert session on those changes.
Globalisation Ends, Economic Regionalisation Becomes New Norm
“Globalisation has come to an end while we see the trend of economic regionalisation” - Li Shufu, founder of @GeelyGroup. Bluntly articulated. This is the New World Order. The realisation & pivot is happening... Great piece by @KanaInagaki & @FT team. https://t.co/ofhYP4sF43
Gulf State Declines Leading Role in Mediation
The Gulf state told U.S. officials last week that it wasn't keen on playing a key role in the mediation or leading the efforts, according to the officials and some of the mediators.
Iran Rejects US Demands, Shows No Ceasefire Desperation
As per the WSJ, Iran rejects all U.S. demands and refuses to meet with American officials in Islamabad. This makes it clear that there were no negotiations and Iran wasn't desperate for a ceasefire.
Control of Hormuz Determines Iran’s Energy Leverage
The war isn’t about nukes anymore. It’s about Hormuz. If Iran controls the strait, it controls the leverage—energy flows, revenue, and deterrence. Lose that, and it loses everything. https://t.co/E8y4o6BWN6 #Iran #Hormuz #Oil #Geopolitics
Trump Pushes Higher Defense Spending Amid Slowing Growth
During the Clinton reign (1993-2001), US defense spending fell from 4.3% to 2.9% of GDP - while GDP SOARED at 4.0%/year. As the economy slumps to 2.1%/yr GDP growth, Trump proposes to increase the defense budget from ~3.0% to 5.0% of...