Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Top 50 Mining Companies Power Through Iran War – up $250 Billion in 2026
The MINING.COM Top 50 miners posted a combined market capitalization of $2.41 trillion at the end of Q1 2026, up roughly $250 billion from the start of 2025. Despite the onset of the US‑Iran conflict and a sharp drop in gold and silver prices, the sector’s valuation continued to rise, with copper only modestly down and lithium firms re‑entering the list. Six companies now exceed $100 billion in market value, highlighted by BHP breaking the $200 billion barrier for the second time. Glencore and Freeport posted the strongest year‑to‑date gains among the majors.
Greening at the Border: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Incidence on EU Member States and Their Trading Partners
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase in January 2024, levying charges on imports based on embedded carbon content. It currently targets cement, steel, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen and related intermediates, covering roughly half of emissions...
Iran Strikes Tighten Oil, Boost Gold as Tensions Rise
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Markets → Oil, Gold, Equities ─────── 1. Israeli strikes on Iran's Mahshahr petrochemical complex disrupt 70% of the country's gasoline supply and export revenues. 2. US demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz escalate tensions, threatening global oil...
Overweight Select Russian Banks Amid Flat MOEX, Firm Ruble
Macro: MOEX flat at 1‑month low; RVI at 52‑week low. Key: banks mixed, Brent and WTI higher, RUB firmer. Risks: oil volatility and geopolitical/sanctions. Trade insight: overweight selective Russian banks. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
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China: The World's Largest Exporter of Goods
China remained the world’s largest exporter of goods in 2024, shipping $3.75 trillion worth of products. Smartphones led the export portfolio, accounting for over $216 billion, while electrical machinery and machinery together comprised more than $1.6 trillion. The European Union, if aggregated, outpaced...
U.S. Auto Industry Proposes Vehicle Fee to Replace Gas Tax
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation proposes replacing the 18.4¢ per‑gallon federal gas tax with a weight‑based vehicle fee to sustain the Highway Trust Fund. EVs now represent 2.5% of U.S. light‑duty vehicles and accounted for 9.6% of new sales in...
23 WTO Members Including the US, UK, Japan, and Mexico Form Their Own E-Commerce Duty-Free Agreement After Global Talks Collapse
A coalition of 23 WTO members—including the United States, United Kingdom, Japan and Mexico—has signed a separate pact to keep electronic transmissions such as digital downloads and streaming free of customs duties. The agreement follows the collapse of WTO‑wide talks...
UK Chancellor Reeves Cuts ISA Allowance to £12,000 and Adds 2p Savings Tax
Britain’s finance minister Rachel Reeves is set to slash the cash ISA limit from £20,000 ($25,000) to £12,000 ($15,000) for the 2026‑27 tax year and impose a 2‑pence‑in‑the‑pound surcharge on savings‑interest tax from April 2027. The moves aim to shore...
China Overhauls Belt‑and‑Road and Targets Balanced Trade as Western Tariffs Rise
China announced a strategic overhaul of its Belt‑and‑Road Initiative and a new policy push for balanced foreign trade. The moves come as Western tariffs climb, prompting Beijing to adjust its export‑driven model and lower its average tariff to 7.3%. The...
Iran-Israel Clash Spikes Oil to $112, Pushes 10‑yr Treasury Yield to 4.30%
The Iran‑Israel conflict sent crude above $110 a barrel, prompting the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield to slip to 4.30% from 4.32% as investors reassessed inflation and growth risks. The move sparked a broader sell‑off in sovereign and corporate bonds worldwide.
Nikkei Gains 1.4% and Kospi Jumps 2.7% as Wall Street Rebounds, Iran War Outlook Improves
Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 1.4% and South Korea's Kospi surged 2.7% after the S&P 500 erased a prior loss and closed modestly higher. The rally was driven by easing oil prices and fresh hopes that Iran will negotiate a traffic...
Stagflation Is Already Happening, a Leading Economist Warns
Two veteran Australian economists warn that the country may be entering stagflation as oil prices surge due to the Middle‑East war. Professor Bob Gregory says early signs are already visible – inflation edging higher while unemployment begins to rise –...
Emerging Market Stock Valuations
A recent analysis shows emerging market (EM) equities are trading at historically low cyclically‑adjusted price‑to‑earnings (CAPE) multiples compared with both their own history and the MSCI USA index. The valuation gap is evident across a broad set of EM countries,...
Sleijpen Says ECB Discussion Will Be Rate Hike or Hold: Podcast
Olaf Sleijpen, president of the Dutch central bank, told the College Leaders in Finance podcast that the European Central Bank’s next Governing Council meeting will focus on a binary decision: raise interest rates further or keep them unchanged. He indicated the...
Trump Era Mirrors Hoover: Market Overvaluation Sparks Gold Surge
Hoover 1929 vs. Trump 2026: Cycles Favoring Risk-Off vs. Risk Assets - The election of President Donald Trump in 2024 has a disconcerting parallel with that of President Herbert Hoover in 1928 -- US stock-market capitalization stretched to over 2x...
Update: Data Illustrates Global Fuel Shortage Is About To Impact
A recent Substack post highlights an accelerating global fuel shortage, with diesel tankers diverting from Europe to Asia and spot diesel prices at Rotterdam soaring to $223 per barrel. Data shows a sharp decline in oil-in-transit volumes while commercial crude...
California Gas Prices Surge, Hitting Coastal Residents Hard
If this gives us sticker shock here — and it does — we have to spare a thought for those on the California coast. #energy #gas #inflation #economy #markets
Tunisie: Recomposition Mondiale - L'IACE Appelle La Tunisie À Une Diplomatie De « Multi-Alignement »
The Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE) released a policy brief urging Tunisia to adopt a “multi‑alignment” diplomatic strategy as the global order fragments. It highlights the erosion of multilateral institutions, heightened US‑China rivalry, and regional crises that amplify Tunisia’s...
Ringgit Set to Remain Firm in 2026 Amid Middle East Tensions, Analysts Say
Malaysia's ringgit is projected to stay near 4.00 against the U.S. dollar through 2026 despite ongoing Middle East conflict, as research houses point to a narrowing interest‑rate gap and possible Fed cuts. A cautious trading week ahead reflects mixed US...
U.S. Adds 178,000 Jobs in March, Defying Iran War Risks
The Labor Department reported a gain of 178,000 non‑farm jobs in March and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the strongest payroll surge in 15 months. Economists say the surge reflects the end of a health‑care strike and...
Iron Ore Prices Slip for Second Week as Chinese Stockpiles Near Record
Iron ore prices fell for a second consecutive week, with the Dalian contract down 0.81% to 797 Yuan ($115.85) per tonne and the Singapore benchmark down 2% to $105.15. The slide reflects rising Chinese port inventories, which rose 0.5% to 177.5 million...
Pakistan to Settle $2 B UAE Loan by Month‑end
Pakistan will repay a $2 billion loan to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by the end of this month, a media report said on Friday.
War Claims Near End, yet Satellite Images Suppressed
> say war is almost over for weeks > repeatedly jawbone oil market lower > say war definitely nearly done > pressure satellite imagery providers to *indefinitely* withhold imagery from war zone that could help market (and public) make their own judgements
Video Interview: Global Oil & LNG Supply Disruption About To Strike - Implications
In a recent video interview, energy analyst Mario Innecco warned that escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf could trigger a significant disruption to global oil and LNG supplies. He outlined how regional naval confrontations, sanctions, and production bottlenecks could tighten...
RBI Bans Rupee Shorting Tools, but Impact Doubtful
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is stepping in to try to slow the rupee’s slide. By restricting derivatives and other tools traders use to SHORT the rupee, the RBI is trying to suppress bets AGAINST the currency. THE RBI'S ENGAGED...
US‑Iran Ceasefire Odds Remain Under 50% Through June
According to Polymarket, there is only an 18% chance of a US–Iran ceasefire by the end of April. There is only a 47% chance of a ceasefire by the end of June. TRUMP = FOREVER WAR = ANTI-MAGA. https://t.co/ZaFmL9ud2V
Egypt Won’t Accept Ukrainian Wheat Exported by Russia, Zelenskyy Says
Egypt announced it will no longer accept Russian wheat that originates from occupied Ukrainian territories, marking a sharp policy reversal. The country, the world’s largest wheat importer, bought more than 8 million tons of Russian grain last year, accounting for a...
COVID's Shutdown Cut Oil Demand 9%; Deeper Cuts Impossible without Crisis
In COVID oil demand was down 9.2% y/y. All it took was shutting down much of the economy & handing out stimmy’s. You think we can shut the economy more than COVID, with no stimulus and without stock & bond markets, banking...
Israel Poised to Strike Iran's Energy, Risking Market Panic
Israel “ready to hit Iran’s energy sector,” waiting on U.S. approval. That’s a signal to pressure Iran to back down & deal It COULD happen but would panic markets & possibly cause a financial crisis on top of an oil crisis #Oil...
Afreximbank in Talks with Kenya, Rwanda for Textile Funding
Afreximbank is in negotiations with Kenya and Rwanda to finance new textile projects, extending the bank’s successful model from Benin’s special economic zones. The lender also backs Nigeria with a $2 billion commitment and holds $11 billion in cash ready for African...
Oman VLCCs Signal Imminent Hormuz Opening, Tanker Frenzy
With the first oil-laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs) coming out of Oman, @ed_fin explains why in the next few months, he expects the Strait of Hormuz to open and there to be a "feeding frenzy" for tankers "It's going to...
OPEC+ Poised to Lift Quotas as Hormuz Reopens
OPEC+ eight members meet tomorrow, with an unprecedented situation in the oil market. They will likely consider a quota increase that would signal readiness to raise output once tankers are able to transit the Strait of Hormuz sources say. https://t.co/ppX8SdbsiJ
Asian Nations Revert to Coal as LNG Prices Soar
Asian economies are abandoning Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and PIVOTING BACK to coal. Since Feb. 28, the FT reports gas prices are up 60%, while coal prices are only up by 17%. https://t.co/FefK5JR7MN
ECB's Next Meeting: Possible Rate Hike or Hold
Sleijpen says next ECB discussion will be a rate hike or hold https://t.co/nsySCHZ2Ld via @patrickreports https://t.co/QVU1clfZB5
Iran's Industrial Self‑sufficiency Targeted by US‑Israel Bombings
The Gulf states ruled by family dictatorships are mostly Gas Stations… their economies are heavily reliant on oil/gas. Iran is HEAVILY industrialised & self sufficient in most things. The US-Israel are bombing the industrial hubs in Iran… Cruel.. https://t.co/3vRM1Nt7XG
Iran Declares Iraq Exempt From Hormuz Restrictions
My thesis is already aging well. "Iran says Iraq exempt from any Strait of Hormuz restrictions" https://t.co/VSTaM2D34T
Mearsheimer: Trump's Advisers Prioritize Israel over Iran Peace
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Trump's foreign emissaries: "Trump's principal advisers are both ardent Zionists. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are deeply committed to Israel. They were not interested in working out a deal with the Iranians to avoid a...
Iran’s Island Chain Secures Strait of Hormuz Dominance
"The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz." Good analysis @WSJ https://t.co/Bq6iyg2c3C
Jones Act Tankers Shield Gas Prices From Market Volatility
Example #1 why the JONES ACT worke by providing long-term fixed rate tankers on dedicated service. What would gas prices be today if 55 Jones Act tankers were not in service but we had to compete for MR tankers on...
Trump’s Bold Claims Ignored by Iran’s Actual Strike
Just a few weeks before a US aircraft was shot down in Iran, President Trump had this to say: “We literally have planes flying over Tehran... They [Iran] can't do a thing about it." TRUMP'S RHETORIC RARLEY MATCHES REALITY. https://t.co/UVqGJAzX2e
Delayed Sanctions Squandered Cooperation, Worsened War Costs
In a war of choice, these dynamics were foreseeable. With enough preparation ahead of time, the admin could have at least mitigated the costs and tradeoffs for other countries (and get more cooperation as a result). Instead, they’ve lifted sanctions during...
Services Now Claim 70% of Consumer Spending
Since 1959, consumption of services has grown from 45% of total spend to 69% today; the share of spending related to nondurable goods has been more than halved, from 41% to 20% today. https://t.co/3ZxEaKRIB5
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports Amid Tight Supply
This is a major signal shift: India a top global importer is openly buying Iranian oil again When supply tightens, politics gives way to reality. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Geopolitics
Shipping Squeeze: Tanker Rates Surge Amid Iran War
OUT NOW - @ed_fin on historic squeeze in shipping: -Why tanker rates soar 2-10x+ on Iran War🛢️ -Strait re-opening = "feeding frenzy"; if not "crisis"⚓️ -Routes/vessels/stocks best poised 🚢 Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 https://t.co/3ZLXMZR8p2
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
March Jobs Report Hides Drop in Total Hours
An overlooked aspect of the March jobs report: total hours worked actually fell in the month https://t.co/ZdEGUdFNjX
EU‑US Alliance Crumbling Before Our Eyes
We are watching the complete meltdown of the EU / US relationship in real time currently
Meloni Heads to Doha to Secure Gulf Energy Ties
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived in Doha Saturday as part of a 2-day diplomatic charm offensive meant to shore up ties with the Gulf and bolster energy supplies hit by the war in Iran https://t.co/qFF0IY3avN via @donatopmancini @ssirletti https://t.co/r8GavWDRH6
Trump Misreads Oil Markets: Global Pricing Overrides Independence
Trump thinks US energy independence protects Americans from Gulf shocks. But he FAILS TO SEE that global markets are pricing all barrels the same. TRUMP = CLEARLY DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE MARKETS FOR OIL. https://t.co/tp5LhHAisM
Europe Sees No Military Fix for Hormuz Crisis
Europe sees no military fix for Hormuz, says @BBC “No upside” to joining the war. The Gulf wants it to continue—until flows resume. Same crisis. Completely different incentives. #Oil #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis