Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Chinese Chip Makers Log Record $9.3B Revenue in 2025 as AI Demand and U.S. Curbs Boost Sales
Chinese semiconductor firms posted record 2025 revenue, with SMIC reporting $9.3 bn—a 16% rise—while memory maker CXMT saw a 130% jump to $8 bn. Analysts say AI demand and U.S. export restrictions are fueling a self‑sufficiency drive that could reshape the global chip market.
Middle East War: Global Economic Fallout
Amid the escalating Middle East conflict, a handful of vessels—including French and Japanese‑owned ships—have resumed transiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing a near‑three‑week blockade that has strained global oil and LNG flows. The war has also triggered a cascade of...
Zero Job Growth Seen as Full Employment, Yet Fragile
22,500 jobs a month would have set off alarms two years ago. Today it might be fine. Fed officials are still grappling with how to explain that. “Conveying that a zero-job-growth economy is consistent with full employment is not easy,”...
Iran Has a Shocking Money Strategy up Its Sleeve
The long‑standing petrodollar system compels oil sales in U.S. dollars, creating massive dollar reserves that finance U.S. Treasury debt. Iran has hinted it could restrict oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz unless the transactions avoid the dollar. Such a...
South Africa's Tax Receipts Outpace GDP Growth
Hold on guys, do the math here: For the full year 2025, South Africa's real GDP growth rate was 1.1%. The nominal GDP grew by around 4%, reaching a total value of +-R7.6 trillion But, PAYE collections grew R59.9 billion more than the...
Trump and the Global Chessboard
Geopolitical tensions are unlikely to evolve into a prolonged conflict, limiting long‑term economic disruption. Higher oil prices add volatility, but modest growth and stable policy expectations keep markets anchored. Diverging central‑bank outlooks and bearish dollar positioning set the stage for...
Iran's Conventional Strength Forces Global Trade Reset
I wrote this at the beginning of the war. I don't like to predict things, but it appears that the initial probabilities I'd spoken of have kinda sorta come about. The war will continue, but now there is an attempt...
I Exposed Iran’s Hidden History—What Do You Think of that Story NOW?
The blog revisits the 1953 CIA‑MI6‑backed coup that ousted Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh after he nationalized the oil industry. It argues that the United States installed the Shah, whose rule persisted until the 1979 revolution, creating a...
5 Countries Ask Brussels to Tax Energy Companies Benefitting From Iran Crisis
Austria, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain have asked the European Commission to introduce an EU‑wide windfall tax on energy companies profiting from the Iran war, echoing the 33% excess‑profit levy applied after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The ministers propose a...
Iran War Accelerates Chinese US Treasure Bill Sell Off
China has accelerated the sale of its U.S. Treasury bill holdings, dropping from $682.6 bn in November 2025 to $633.4 bn—a $50 bn decline in four months and the lowest level since 2008. The sell‑off follows a pattern of larger drawdowns during the...
UK, Allies Mull Fresh Iran Sanctions as Hormuz Toll Threatens Oil Supply Chain
Britain and a coalition of allies announced they are drafting new sanctions on Iran after Tehran imposed a $2 million toll on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while European nations rebuffed President Trump’s request for military support. The move threatens...
Nigeria Approves $6 Billion External Borrowing, Sparking Debt‑Sustainability Alarm
Nigeria’s National Assembly cleared a fresh $6 billion external loan, prompting Afrinvest to warn that the move could undo recent improvements in the country’s debt‑to‑GDP ratio. The report flags falling reserves, a weakening naira and looming fertilizer price shocks as additional...
India's FX Reserves Drop $10.3 Bn in One Week as RBI Steps Up Currency Intervention
India's foreign exchange reserves plunged $10.3 bn in the week to March 27, 2026, leaving the total at $688.1 bn. The slide was led by a $6.6 bn fall in foreign currency assets and a $3.7 bn drop in gold, reflecting RBI's market‑stabilisation moves and...
Middle East Conflict Lifts Crude to $111 a Barrel, Snarls Shipping and Spikes Global Inflation Risk
The war in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude to $111 a barrel, forced Indian refiners to divert tankers to China, and left basmati exporters invoking force majeure. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and airline routes is...
30‑Year Mortgage Rate Hits 6.46%, Tied to Rising 10‑Year Treasury Yields
Freddie Mac said the benchmark 30‑year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.46% from 6.38% last week, its highest level since early September. The rise mirrors a lift in the 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.3%, underscoring tighter credit conditions for homebuyers...
Employers Add 178,000 Jobs in March, Unemployment Falls to 4.3%
Employers added 178,000 jobs in March, eclipsing the 60,000 consensus estimate and pulling the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. Health care, construction and transportation led the gains, while the Fed watches for rate‑cut signals.
ASX 200 Slides 1% to 8,579 as Trump’s Iran Threat Spurs Oil Surge and Risk‑Off Sell‑Off
The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 92.3 points, or 1.06%, at 8,579.5 on Thursday, erasing Wednesday’s gains after President Donald Trump warned of “very hard” strikes on Iran. Brent crude jumped about 5‑6% to $107 a barrel, driving a broad market...
Wells Fargo CEO’s ‘Reasons to Worry’ Warning Flags Economic Risks
Wells Fargo chief Charles Scharf warned the market with the three‑word phrase “Reasons to worry,” despite data showing resilient consumer spending and low unemployment. He cited soaring oil prices, higher gasoline costs and lingering market nervousness as the main threats...
Sixth Week of Hormuz War Sparks Oil Demand Destruction
The Third Gulf War (aka, the ‘Hormuz War’) is entering into its 6th week, at the very end of the initial White House guidance of a 4-6 week campaign. For the oil market, we are into demand destruction territory, although...
Govt Says No Diversion of Iranian Crude Cargo to China, Supplies Fully Secured
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas refuted claims that an Iranian crude cargo destined for Vadinar was rerouted to China, labeling the reports factually incorrect. The ministry emphasized that Indian refiners continue to source crude from more than 40...
Your Produce Bill Is About to Get Pricey as the Iran War Jacks up US Food Costs
U.S. grocery prices for fresh produce are spiking as the Israel‑Iran war drives oil above $100 per barrel, inflating diesel and refrigeration costs. USDA data show wholesale lime prices up 63% and blueberries up 44% between late February and March....
Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Yet Trigger Recessionary Pullback
𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗖𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗪𝗮𝘆𝘀 The reporter, David Lin, asks his guest "𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 (𝗙𝗲𝗱) 𝗯𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? His guest, Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group states that "oil cuts both ways in terms...
Tariffs Became Missiles, Sparking a Trade World War
The World War Trade 🎙️ podcast is up! 👉"If tariffs were missiles, the whole world would know that a world war started on April 2, 2025. That is the day Donald Trump launched tariffs against almost every nation in the world." 👉"Hours later, China put...
Friday Recap (4/3/2026)
The S&P 500 rallied after former President Trump said he would end the Iran conflict within weeks, lifting the index above 6,500. Gold, silver and mining stocks also recovered, though they remain well below their recent peaks. Analysts view the move...
EU-India FTA May Boost India's Competitiveness in some Sectors: EY Report
EY’s March 2026 European Economic Outlook notes that the newly announced EU‑India free trade agreement will have limited macro impact on Europe but could sharpen India’s competitiveness in select sectors such as minerals and textiles. The report flags that U.S....
Strait of Hormuz Now Central as Vulnerabilities Rise
“They've demonstrated to the Gulf states how vulnerable they are and how vulnerable the global economy is,” said a European official briefed on diplomatic efforts to end the war. “So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz never...
MB Radio: Deep T and the External Shock
The MB Radio episode "Deep T and Mister G" examines the fallout from the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran, which could force Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off roughly 20% of global oil and...
UAE Squeezes Iranian Economic Lifeline in Retaliation for Attacks
Facing a wave of Iranian air strikes on its industrial sites, the United Arab Emirates has moved to choke off Tehran’s economic lifeline. The UAE quietly imposed a near‑total ban on Iranian nationals entering the country or transiting through its...
Supply Shocks and Fiscal Math: How the War Is Stress-Testing India’s Economy
In a recent Businessline State of the Economy podcast, Union Bank of India's chief economic advisor Kanika Pasricha dissected the early economic effects of the Ukraine‑Russia war on India. She highlighted a steep decline in the manufacturing PMI caused by...
Silver Drags Commodity ETFs Down up to 15% in March. What Next for Investors?
In March 2026, silver‑focused commodity ETFs slumped as much as 15%, with UTI Silver ETF posting the steepest decline of –14.72%. The broader commodity‑ETF universe saw 43 funds in the red, while gold ETFs also recorded double‑digit losses. The sell‑off...
Top Developers' Sales Drop 23%, Existing Market Revives
Caixin: "Sales by China’s top 100 real estate developers plunged roughly 23% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The prolonged slump in new home sales contrasts with a nascent rebound in the existing home market of major cities like...
US Services Slip, Jobs Surge; India Manufacturing Hits 4‑year Low
🌍 Global News Update: ⦿ S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2026, signaling first contraction in over three years. ⦿ S&P Global US Composite PMI revised to 50.3 in March 2026, lowest since September 2023. ⦿ US economy added...
Think. Over the Week
India’s economy faces a turbulent 2026 as oil price spikes from the Iran‑war threaten its trade deficit, current‑account balance, growth and inflation targets. The editorial notes that budget assumptions are unraveling, but a swift end to the conflict could limit...
U.S. Intel: Iran Unlikely to Reopen Hormuz, Oil Leverage
U.S. Intel Warns Iran Has No Incentive to Reopen Hormuz as Oil Leverage Grows. Economic vs military advantage. Can and how can Iran’s grasp be stopped? Will there be a protracted military operation? As supply and supply chains struggle. ...
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports After Sanctions Eased
New Delhi confirms its buying oil from Iran (after US eased sanctions): “… Indian refiners have secured their crude oil requirements, including from Iran; and there is no payment hurdle for Iranian crude imports…”
Sri Lanka Struggles to Avert Economic Collapse over Mideast War
Sri Lanka’s government has slashed fuel supplies, raised fuel prices by a third and hiked electricity tariffs up to 40% as the Middle‑East war strains global energy markets. The country is also coping with the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, which...
First Ships Navigate Hormuz, Redefining Global Shipping Risks
Controlled Passage: First Ships Edge Through Hormuz as Crisis Redefines Global Shipping. Iran vs UNCLOS. Shipping cost and war risk insurance vs value of cargo. Supply chain chaos. Supply shortages and impact—macro and micro. https://t.co/NYGVyblHEB
Energy Crisis Could Spill Into Broader Economy, Warns ECB's Radev
ECB’s Radev says the energy crisis may spread to the wider economy https://t.co/3xVWeBrdqt via @GoodOldSlav https://t.co/xy7r5rcfIa
GDP Rises 7.83% in Q1, Highest in 16 Years
Vietnam’s economy expanded 7.83% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026, the strongest pace in 16 years. Services drove growth, contributing 50.32% of added value, while industry‑construction posted a 9.01% rise and manufacturing surged 9.73%. Trade activity reached $249.5 billion, up 23%, and 96,000...
Germany Leads EU Push to Tax Energy Windfall Profits
Germany among states pushing the EU to tax energy windfall profits https://t.co/ik4V4nYwqA via @iaindrogers https://t.co/zhu4LTgKRe
Manufacturers Flood ISM Surveys with Negative Tariff Criticism
"Since Mr Trump took charge, most of the comments from manufacturers that ISM has published along with its surveys have mentioned tariffs. Not one has been positive. Many of the unpublished ones are more forceful still." https://t.co/CPYmAXhPEP https://t.co/01lBtbBHB6
US-Israeli War on Iran Threatens Syria
The United States and Israel have stepped up coordinated air strikes against Iranian‑backed facilities in Syria, marking a sharp escalation in the covert war on Tehran. Syrian air defenses have shot down several missiles, while Iranian militias report casualties and...
Canada Seeks to Grow Financial Services in China
1/12 Bloomberg: "Canada pitched expanding its financial services presence in the Chinese market as the northern nation aims to increase exports to its second-largest trading partner in a push to diversify from the US." https://t.co/MifJtmoDWc
Turkey's Gold Reserves Fall to Defend Lira Peg
There's 3 central banks that publish weekly data on FX reserves and gold holdings: India, Thailand and Turkey. Only Turkey has seen a sustained drop in gold holdings (blue) that have been used to lift FX reserves and defend the...
Live: Oil Prices, Weak Dollar, Central Bank Gold Sales
I'm doing a livestream this morning at 9 am (ET) to talk through: (i) the different oil prices floating around and how they all fit together; (ii) how the Dollar is trading weak, with yesterday's payrolls another example; (iii) central...
Global Markets Eye War, CPI Data, and RBI Caps
Week Ahead: Still mostly about the war. US and China report March CPI. China's PPI may have emerged from deflation. Canada reports March jobs data. RBI is relying on cap controls to support INR, not...
Germany’s Global GDP Share Slipping to 4% by 2030
Good Morning from Germany, a country whose influence on the world stage is fading. Its share of global GDP is expected to fall to 4% by 2030. https://t.co/Y1dVwTJYJC
Bank of Italy Slashes Growth Outlook to 0.5%
Bank of Italy cuts growth forecast to 0.5% this year and next https://t.co/2uTKPU1ZMk via @Alemrome https://t.co/dT7DsBhjh4
US Intel Says Iran Will Maintain Hormuz Chokehold
Exclusive: US intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon, sources say https://t.co/s0QE23T6Eu
Pakistan's Fuel Prices Surge Amid US‑Israeli Iran Conflict
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, Pakistan is entering TROUBLED ECONOMIC WATERS. The price per litre of petrol is up 42.7% and diesel 54.9%. PAK = SHOULD SEND THE BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/iSttCgOOSF