Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Amidst War, Iran's Merchant Fleet Is Enjoying Boom Times
Iran’s state‑owned merchant fleet, led by the sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, is experiencing a surge in activity since the war began on February 28. Daily traffic at Bandar Abbas now exceeds 20 vessels, while oil and LNG price spikes have revived tanker movements, including the first Iranian oil shipments to India since 2019 under a U.S. waiver. Simultaneously, China‑origin sodium perchlorate—key for solid rocket fuel—continues to arrive via IRISL‑linked ships, a supply chain tied to recent explosions at the Rajaei Port container park.
Is the World Running Out of Oil? Goldman Sachs Weighs In
Goldman Sachs analysis says the world is not running out of oil despite the Middle East conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Asian economies that source roughly half of their fuel from the Gulf are feeling strain as shipments fall,...
Weak Yen, AI Capex Drive Japan Stock Upside
Macro: governance reform, weak yen, AI-capex support Japan equities. Key: buybacks, rising margins, supply-chain leverage. Risks: demand weakness, policy shifts. Trade: buy exporters on dips. —Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Fed Minutes, Inflation, Delta, Levi’s, and More to Watch This Week
Stocks rebounded sharply last week, snapping a five‑week losing streak as the S&P 500 climbed 3.4% and the Nasdaq surged 4.4%. Investors will parse this week’s Federal Reserve minutes for clues on monetary policy and watch upcoming inflation data alongside...
Iran Claims to Have Hit an MSC Container Ship in the Mideast
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a drone strike on the MSC Ishyka container vessel, claiming it caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. AIS data, however, places the ship at a berth in Manama, Bahrain, and shows intermittent signal...
Geopolitical Realignments Signal Looming 2026 Bear Market
A Faustian Bargain, the Battle of the Bulge and Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - President Trump's conversion to crypto zealot helped get him elected and pumped prices to nosebleed levels. That Faustian-like bargain is unraveling. Stocks may be next. - The "unlimited friendship" between...
Energy Shortage Drives Job Loss, Dollar Collapse, Pax End
92,000 jobs lost. Unemployment rising. The dollar cracking at its foundation. Mainstream economists are calling this a surprise. I have been warning about this for years because unlike conventional theory, my models actually include money and energy. Labor without energy is a corpse....
Russia’s Lavrov Says US Should ‘Abandon Language of Ultimatums’ on Iran
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Iran’s foreign minister that the United States should abandon its ultimatum‑style rhetoric and return to negotiations after President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran does not reopen the...
Asia Faces Fuel Squeeze as Reserves Dip to 30 Days
Asian countries (excluding China) only hold 30 days of fuel in reserve. If that isn't bad enough, they rely heavily on oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. IN THE COMING DAYS, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SQUEEZE AND HIGHER PRICES...
US Inaction Will Trigger Oil Shock in Two Weeks
Listen to the question carefully then listen to the answer. Those waiting for US Leadership in solving the Strait of Hormuz issue, you are gonna be disappointed. They have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how to solve the issue. In less than 2 weeks, global...
The Guardian View on Japan’s Hidden Century: Cheap Money, Global Risk | Editorial
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose policy has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, fueling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but the...
Economists Calculated Exactly How Much Trump Tariffs Will Cost You in 2026—And Who Is Paying the Most
Economists estimate the average U.S. household will shoulder about $600 in tariff‑related costs in 2026, down from roughly $1,000 in 2025. The figure aligns with Yale Budget Lab’s $570 estimate and reflects the impact of Supreme Court rulings that have...
Record Number of Americans Can't Pay Credit‑Card Bills in Full, Signaling Debt Surge
A fresh analysis reveals a record‑high proportion of U.S. consumers are unable to pay their credit‑card statements in full each month, underscoring a deepening personal‑finance strain. The trend threatens household budgets and could pressure lenders as delinquencies rise.
Pakistan’s $2 Billion UAE Repayment Widens External Financing Gap, Pressuring Reserves
Pakistan has repaid $2 bn to the United Arab Emirates, widening its external financing gap to an estimated $2.46 bn and trimming foreign exchange reserves. The move comes as Islamabad negotiates a staff‑level IMF deal and faces heightened geopolitical pressure in West...
When Global Uncertainty Meets the Shopping Cart
Global geopolitical tensions and volatile oil markets are tightening consumer budgets, prompting shoppers to scrutinize prices and prioritize stability. At the same time, sustainability is shedding its niche image and becoming a practical, cost‑saving consideration for everyday purchases. Large Philippine...
Gold Imports Rise by Nearly 29% to $69 Bn in Apr-Feb 2025-26
India’s gold imports surged 28.73% to $69 billion in the April‑February 2025‑26 window, spurred by record‑high prices of roughly $1,825 per 10 grams. The influx pushed the trade deficit to $310.6 billion, up from $261.8 billion a year earlier. Switzerland remained the top supplier,...
Reality to Hammer US AI Boom
The article warns that almost half of the U.S. data‑centre projects slated for 2026 are expected to be delayed or cancelled, casting doubt on the momentum of the American AI and data‑centre boom. This slowdown comes amid ongoing Middle‑East conflict...
Trump Floats Seizing Iran Oil as Deadline Looms for Nuclear Deal: Report
President Donald Trump warned that if Iran does not quickly reach a good‑faith nuclear deal, the United States could seize Iranian oil and target key infrastructure. He simultaneously expressed optimism that a diplomatic breakthrough could occur within days, indicating a...
Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Murrin’s Critical Weekly Forecast
Every Saturday. David Murrin’s key predictions from the week’s latest insight. This week — the Strait of Hormuz. And what’s really at stake.
Warsh Nomination Stalls, Raising Fear of Fed Policy Gridlock
Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve remains stalled as Senate Banking Committee ranking member Thom Tillis refuses to advance a vote. The impasse fuels worries that prolonged uncertainty could hamper monetary policy and trigger a shutdown of key...
S&P 500 Jumps 3% for Strongest Weekly Gain in Five Months as Oil Eases and Trump Signals Iran Talks
The S&P 500 surged 3% on Tuesday, delivering its best weekly performance since November and ending a five‑week decline. The rally was sparked by President Donald Trump’s comments on a possible US‑Iran cease‑fire and a temporary dip in oil prices,...
CII Unveils 20‑Point Policy Blueprint to Shield Indian Finance Amid West Asia Crisis
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) released a 20‑point policy agenda urging the Indian government and RBI to roll out a Conflict‑Linked Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme, a three‑month moratorium for MSMEs, and a special refinance window. The proposals aim...
IMF Urges BOJ to Keep Raising Rates as Iran War Pushes Yen Toward $160
The International Monetary Fund has called on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates despite fresh uncertainty from the Iran war. The recommendation comes as the yen slides toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark, prompting market speculation of further hikes...
Foreign Buyers Net 252.9bn Won, Lifting Samsung, SK Hynix as KOSPI Gains 2.9%
Foreign investors snapped up 252.9 billion won ($190 million) of Korean equities, pushing the KOSPI to 5,384.90 – a 2.88% rise – and sending Samsung Electronics up 4.04% and SK Hynix up 5.90%. The inflow marks the first net‑buying streak for foreigners...
A Pivotal Week Ahead for Global Economy and Markets
Another pivotal week is on tap for the global economy and markets. Please see why in this, my weekly note on recent developments and immediate prospects (links below). https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-910?r=33wip https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-zecrc?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_series_entity%3BIEUjQgDHQGSDuxWPLz3R%2BQ%3D%3D #economy #markets
Hormuz Between Trump and Iranian IRGC (A Podcast)
The U.S. International Development Finance Corp. doubled its reinsurance guarantees for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to $40 billion, adding major insurers such as AIG and Berkshire Hathaway. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump warned Iran with a 48‑hour deadline to...
The UN Has a Plan to Open Hormuz (Two of Them, Actually.)
The UN Secretary‑General announced a new task force to design technical mechanisms that would allow fertilizer and humanitarian goods to flow through the Strait of Hormuz amid the third Persian Gulf war. Oil shortages are already rattling South Asian economies,...
Data Deluge, yet Iran Conflict Remains Market Driver
Another week of heavy data but don't be mistaken Iran War will run the show 👇 🇺🇸 US - ISM Services -CPI -Fed Minutes -Durable Goods -Personal income/spending -UMich 🇪🇺 EZ -Retail Sales -PMI Rev -GE Trade & IP 🇨🇦 CA -IVEY -Jobs 🇳🇿 NZ -RBNZ -PMI 🇦🇺 AU Retail Sales
Savings Surplus Flips to Spending Glut, Straining Builders
Real economy "builders" need money. They can source money from investors or consumers. Since Covid, investors and consumers had money from massive fiscal and monetary policy actions. Builders got all the money they needed from consumption plus more from...
RI Turns to Africa, India for Naphtha as Middle East Supply Tightens
Indonesia relies on Middle East naphtha for 70% of its petrochemical feedstock, but the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, halting shipments. The supply crunch has pushed pack prices up by Rp5,000‑6,000 (≈$0.30) and driven packaging...
Rebuilding U.S. Industry Essential to Counter China’s Assault
For decades, the erosion of America's industrial capacity has been gradual and largely ignored. First, it was foundational sectors: solar, batteries, furniture, footwear, pharmaceuticals. Now, the shift is moving into advanced industries: materials, biotechnology, semiconductors and increasingly, technology and software. This is not...
India’s Foreign Policy: Hedge, De‑risk, Diversify for Long‑term Stability
S. Jaishankar, India's Minister of External Affairs on the importance of hedging: “Hedge, de-risk, diversify is how India navigates a fractured world.” STRATEGY OVER NOISE. INDIA PLAYS THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/Y303y6Dl2Q
Chinese Bonds Near Inflection Point as Inflation Path Shifts
Chinese government bond yields are edging up from record lows as deflationary pressure eases. The benchmark 10‑year yield, currently around 1.8%, could climb toward or beyond 2% this year. Simultaneously, the spread between five‑year and 30‑year notes has widened to...
CPI to Gauge Oil Shock; Fed Minutes Hint Iran Stance
March CPI on Friday will show how the oil spike hit consumer prices. Meanwhile, Fed Minutes offer a window into policymakers' early thinking on the Iran conflict. 🟢 Open https://t.co/51FrxswWr9
Trump Threatens Total Destruction if Iran Deal Stalls
JUST IN: Trump says an Iran agreement could close by Tuesday, or he'll destroy everything.
Iran Mandates Crypto Tolls for Ships in Strait of Hormuz
JUST IN: Iran is now requiring cryptocurrency payments as tolls for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump's $1.5 T Defense Request Dwarfs Multiple National Economies
Trump's $1.5T military budget request is MASSIVE. $1.5T is larger than the entire economies of Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, & Türkiye. It’s almost the entire size of Indonesia’s economy & roughly HALF the size of France's entire economy. TRUMP = PLOWSHARES INTO SWORDS....
Trump Demands Iran Reopen Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday
JUST IN: Trump's ultimatum: Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night, per WSJ.
Euro‑industrial Reports May Be Outdated Post‑Middle East Conflict
Multiple euro-region industrial reports will draw attention this week, although their focus on February — before war began in the Middle East — may limit their utility for investors https://t.co/CfoQtcZf4b via @CraigStirling https://t.co/tAswRZZD3n
Market Sentiment Swings Wildly; Consensus Overreacts Each Side
My homework this weekend - went from max optimism in Jan: tax refunds, tariff repeal, easy Lliberation Day comps & resilient consumer. To extreme pessimism in April: higher gas prices, war, global growth slowdown and higher inflation....
Mortgage Spreads High; 8% Rates Demand Booming Economy
With where mortgage spreads are at with the Fed Funds Rate, 8% rates would need a booming economy with job and wage growth picking up again Spreads got as high as 3.11% in 2023, currently at 2.11% https://t.co/25afwLqFtN
Oil Reserves Aren't Instantly Deployable Due to Logistical Limits
•“Reserves” ≠ instantly usable supply These barrels are spread across countries and fields, and many aren’t quickly accessible. •Logistics constraints Transport, refining, and geopolitics limit how fast oil can be deployed.
US Crude Production Hits Record, Global Impacts Loom
US crude oil production breaks new records. What does this mean for other countries? For the American public? More charts and graphs featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment below. https://t.co/WAXH5XLi1r
Bond Market Warns: No Rate Cuts, Equity Rally Fading
The bond market is telling you what equities refuse to accept. Rate cuts aren't coming. This rally is just a bounce before the binary. https://t.co/Mh5FYZAawT
U.S. Policies May Have Accelerated Iran’s Nuclear Program
My friend and Johns Hopkins colleague Vali Nasr on Iranian nuclear proliferation: “Rather than preventing [Iranian] nuclear proliferation, the US may have actually accelerated it — and has no way of stopping it.” https://t.co/UctRpvmg1s
Oil Shocks Ripple Globally Through Inflation and Rates
“America doesn’t need Hormuz” misses the point, writes @vtchakarova Oil is global. Prices are global. Risk is global. You don’t need the barrels to feel the shock. It hits through inflation, rates, and the system itself. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Inflation
US Trade Balance Remains Stable as Rivals Falter
During the next three months, the trade balance of all countries competing with the United States will be hit hard. The US will be the least impacted. Exactly as happened in 1974!
Assessing This Week’s Risk Appetite: Bullish or Bearish?
My article for market conditions, themes and top event risk for the week ahead (and some of the charts): Bull or Bear: What is the Prevailing Wind for Risk Appetite? https://t.co/TVXg9nQEKj https://t.co/NqWkTckR31
Global Debt, Not Oil, Fuels True Complacency
I keep hearing the word complacency regarding oil prices. Maybe. But the real complacency is in global debt markets. We have an inflationary shock and fiscal policy that - especially in Europe and Japan - is out of control. This...
Forward Yield Spike Signals Looming Global Debt Crisis
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.3% (blue) and looks benign. But 10y10y forward yield (red) is 5.5% and pushing above pre-2008 levels. The global debt crisis waits for no one. Fiscal policy is out of control and geopolitical uncertainty makes...