Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
One Year After ‘Liberation Day,’ Tariffs Reshape Global Trade Landscape
April 2, 2025 marked "Liberation Day," when the U.S. invoked the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to impose sweeping tariffs on most trading partners. The tariffs aimed to shrink the trade deficit, curb fentanyl inflows, and boost domestic manufacturing, but they instantly destabilized global supply chains. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated the original IEEPA tariffs, prompting the White House to replace them with a 10% Section 122 levy that remains in force through July. Meanwhile, the USTR has launched Section 301 investigations against an expanding list of 60 countries over forced‑labor concerns, cementing tariffs as a permanent trade fixture.
Trends in General Inflation and Farm Input Prices
The study compares long‑term general inflation with agricultural input prices from 1973 to 2025, finding that farm inputs rose at an average 4.1 % annually versus 3.4 % for the PCE deflator. Correlation between the two series is moderate (0.59), but input...
Are Oil Tankers Moving Through Hormuz Again?
The Strait of Hormuz, once handling roughly 100 east‑to‑west crude tankers daily, saw traffic collapse amid the Iran conflict, prompting concerns about global oil supply. Analysts now question whether tanker movements have resumed, as the region remains a critical chokepoint...
Jobs Surge Boosts Main Street, Participation Rate Still Lags
My five main takeaways from this morning’s strong March US Jobs Report: 1. Great news for Main Street: With a blockbuster 178,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.3%, the labor market is outperforming expectations. 2. The supply-side challenge: The labor force...
US Jobs Report Is Barnburner. Too Bad It’s Stale.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls jumped dramatically in March, reversing a sharp decline seen in February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The surge was driven largely by returning healthcare workers and a hiring wave in transportation and courier services. While...
Trump's Pharma Tariff Won't Lower Prices, Study Finds
Trump's proposed 100% tariff on pharma imports would have limited impact, analysis says. Why? 68% of U.S. prescription drugs are already made domestically. Prices are driven by patents & rebates, not import costs. Healthcare
Wage Growth Slows to 3.5%, Threatened by Rising Inflation
Important point: Wage growth slowed in March to 3.5%. That's the lowest since May 2021. 3.5% looks decent, but we're in the midst of a big surge inflation as gas and transport costs rise. We could easily hit 4%+ inflation, which will...
European Luxury Stocks Tumble 28% as Chinese Demand Weakens, LVMH Leads Slump
European luxury giants saw a sharp sell‑off, with LVMH plunging 28% in the first quarter, erasing tens of billions from Bernard Arnault's fortune. The slide reflects weakening Chinese demand and heightened risk aversion, prompting investors to question whether the correction...
Dubai Rolls Out $272 Million Stimulus to Bolster Companies and Jobs
Dubai's ruler Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced a Dh1 billion ($272 million) stimulus that postpones government fees and tourism charges, targeting hospitality, tourism and other private‑sector firms. The move is designed to preserve growth momentum and protect jobs...
New Zealand Resumes $16.6 M Aid as Cook Islands Signs Defense Pact to Counter China Influence
New Zealand and the Cook Islands signed a non‑binding Declaration on Defence and Security, unlocking NZ$29.8 million (US$16.62 million) of paused aid. The pact eases a diplomatic row sparked by the Cook Islands’ 2024 China partnership and signals a coordinated effort to...
Asian Stocks Rally 1.4%–2.7% as US Gains and Iran De‑Escalation Hopes Lift Markets
Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.4% and South Korea's Kospi surged 2.7% after the S&P 500 rebounded, spurring a broader Asian equity rally. Traders cited fresh diplomatic signals between Iran and Oman on Hormuz traffic and a softer dollar as the...
Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
Episode 151 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast unpacks how the United States wields economic power—through the dollar, sanctions, export controls and supply‑chain leverage—as a core element of great‑power competition. The discussion is anchored in Eddie Fishman’s book *Chokepoints* and features...
Job Market Rebounds: 178K March Jobs, Unemployment at 4.3%
The job market continues to be reasonably good (for an aging workforce with low net immigration). 178K jobs in March, much a bounceback from strikes and weather that resulted in -133K (revised) in February. The three month average is 68K. Urate ticked...
Fed Must Prioritize Growth Over Inflation in Stagflation
This is rapidly becoming one of the most pronounced stagflationary environments in decades. Inflation is accelerating while growth is rolling over sharply. That leaves the Fed in a real bind. At these levels of debt, you either save growth or kill inflation. Policymakers will...
How the Iran War Is Fuelling Wild Swings in Interest-Rate Bets
The Iran war has injected fresh uncertainty into global inflation and growth forecasts, prompting dramatic swings in interest‑rate swap markets across the US, UK and Europe. Traders have shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing multiple hikes within minutes,...
Pakistanis Face up to 54% Rise in Fuel Prices
Pakistan announced record fuel price hikes on April 3, 2026, with petrol rising 49 cents per litre and diesel jumping 67 cents, a rise of up to 54 percent. The surge, driven by the Middle East conflict and global oil price spikes, follows...
Mosaic and Simplot Support Keeping Phosphate Fertilizer Tariffs
Mosaic and Simplot have publicly endorsed keeping the countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate fertilizer, which have ranged from 16.6% to over 47% since 2021. The duties are now in a five‑year sunset review by the Department of Commerce...
US Energy Shock Hits Prices; Asia Faces Real Shortages
Remember, the energy shock in the US is primarily about price. Elsewhere in much of the world, quantity is also a real concern. Indeed, you only need to look at the ongoing policy and household/corporate adaptations in an increasing number of...
China Gains Upper Hand in Iran Conflict
Today's pod: WHY CHINA IS WINNING THE IRAN WAR Energy crises tend to have strange ripple effects. The 1970s oil crises contributed to (among many other things): - stagflation, the demise of the New Deal order in America, & the ensuing...
Japanese Airlines Mull Fuel Surcharge Hikes Due to Mideast War
Japanese carriers Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA) are weighing fuel surcharge increases as oil prices surge following the Middle East war that shut the Strait of Hormuz. Both airlines say no formal decision has been made, but...
World Food Prices Rise Set to Continue if Iran War Lasts
The FAO Food Price Index rose 2.4 % in March, reaching its highest level since September 2023. Higher oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict are driving modest but notable increases across key commodities such as wheat, vegetable oil and...
Bond Volatility Drives Global Cross‑asset Market Turbulence
If the PPT wants/needs to manipulate the US Equity Futures, that's fine - we know how that ends (gravity always wins) The real problem is Bond Market Vol and there's no change to that TRENDING Breakout Pretty much every position, everywhere,...
Oil Analysts' Warnings Ignored Until Supply Shocks Hit
Oil experts are an interesting breed of people. They are sorta like gold bugs. For long periods they sit in a distant corner of the financial markets. We pass by their desks and they nod at us...
Iran War and $109 Oil Price Spike Threaten March Payrolls, Raising Hiring Outlook Concerns
U.S. labor market expectations are being clouded by the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has pushed Brent crude to about $109 a barrel and prompted a $200 billion supplemental war funding request. Analysts warn the higher energy costs could dampen hiring momentum ahead...
March Adds 178K Jobs, Double Forecast, Rivals 2025 Total
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March. This was over twice as high as the consensus of 60,000. For context, jobs added in March nearly matched the yearly total for all of 2025, when only 181,000 jobs were added. https://t.co/HhjdreSvui
Dollar's Upside Surprise Effect Fades, Weakness Looms
A few months ago, I wrote about how upside data surprises weren't lifting the Dollar anymore. Today is a case in point. Big upside surprise to payrolls and the Dollar does basically nothing. We're seeing regime change for the Dollar...
Iranian Crude Tanker Reroutes to China, Highlighting Shifts in Global Oil Supply Chain
The Eswatini‑flagged tanker Ping Shun, loaded with Iranian crude, abandoned its planned berth at India's Vadinar port and signaled a new destination of Dongying, China. The sudden change, tracked by maritime data services, reflects mounting geopolitical pressure on Iran and a...
ECB's Simkus: Too Early to Judge April Meeting
ECB’s Simkus says it is too early to call the outcome of April’s meeting https://t.co/GyAjrsyZA3 via @mseput https://t.co/uL1RzTuL18
March Payroll Surge Likely Unsustainable, New Data Shows
If you think the reported jump in payrolls in March is sustainable, I have some news: https://t.co/zRB6pq1mqD
U.S. Accelerates Critical Minerals Drive Amid China’s Dominance
Senators and the Department of Energy are rolling out a legislative package and funding initiatives aimed at slashing U.S. reliance on China for critical minerals. The plan couples new “strategic resilience” legislation with fast‑tracked domestic projects such as Lithium Americas’...
Middle East Turmoil Threatens Global Industrial Supply Chains
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry https://t.co/q4PGQdnQp0
Surprise US Payrolls Lift Yields, Hit Emerging Markets
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
Rates Spark: Markets Don't See A Solution Yet
Markets remain unsettled as President Donald Trump's rhetoric fails to provide a clear policy path, keeping oil prices elevated and risk aversion high heading into a long weekend. In the UK, investors now price roughly 50 basis points of Bank...
China Challenges Iran at UN over Hormuz Closure
China, Europe and why Beijing took a swing at Iran over the Strait of Hormuz Beijing takes a stand at the United Nations at the closure of shipping lanes Despite all the blather about how China benefits from the conflict... https://t.co/dhDbWjo4ip via...
Unemployment Hits 4.3%, Jobs Surge Beyond Forecast
US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.3% in March, the lowest level since last August & well below the historical average of 5.7%. 178k jobs were added vs. 51k expected (but February revised⬇️to -133k from -92k). YoY wage growth: +3.5%,...
Iran War Drives Oil Prices 59% Higher, Fuels Stagflation Fears
Brent crude has surged roughly 59% since March, breaching the $100‑$120 per barrel range as the Iran war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that sustained prices near $140 a barrel could push the world into a mild recession...
Central Bank's Gold Sale Signals Deep Hormuz Crisis
The sloppiest gold seller in global central bank history - why? Desperately needed the cash. This is just one of the many tentacles (3rd, 4th, 5th order effects), coming out of the Straight of Hormuz.
Xi Removes Third Politburo Member in Six Months
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ousted a third member of the Communist Party’s elite Politburo in less than six months https://t.co/qfl3fLbDhU via @WSJ
U.S. Treasury Yields Jump as Bonds Plunge Amid Trump‑Era Iran Tensions
President Donald Trump's late‑Wednesday address on Iran sent U.S. Treasury yields sharply higher and bond prices tumbling. The sell‑off was driven by fears of higher oil prices, tighter monetary policy and a broader risk‑off mood ahead of a potential ground...
NFP 178k: Overhyped Amid Low Expectations
I am aghast listening to people on TV discuss the NFP report of 178k as "Blowout numbers." This is an okay number, not as bad as some recent data points, not as good as others. Call it the soft prejudice of...
Italy's 3.1% Deficit Breaches EU Limit, Meloni Stumbles
Italy deficit at 3.1% breaches the EU ceiling in a setback for Meloni https://t.co/wR7mbX77hT via @Alemrome https://t.co/hjq6E3LDXV
Payrolls Stuck in Ten-Month Yo‑Yo Alternation
With today's blockbuster +178k print on payrolls we've now been in a bizarre yo-yo pattern alternating between positive and negative payroll numbers for ten straight months, dating to last June. https://t.co/LSW4ELkTYg
March Adds 178k Jobs, Unemployment Drops to 4.3%
The economy added +178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. But revisions sent February to -133,000 from -92,000. January was revised up to +160,000 from +126,000.
Europe's Gas Price Surge Makes Hormuz Intervention Urgent
Whatever objections Europe has to helping open up the Strait of Hormuz, it's a matter of urgent self-interest to help sort this situation out. On a similar time scale to 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, European natural gas prices are...
Foreign Central Banks Boost Fed Holdings by $3.3 Bn
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Bond Vigilantes Reprice Yields as Oil Shocks Drive Inflation Outlook
Bond Vigilantes are repricing yield curves worldwide as oil shocks reshape inflation expectations. Global spreads reveal where markets see the biggest shifts ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/ntInn7MIg4
Full Hormuz Oil Replacement Unrealistic, 10‑
Ideas Dinner Manhattan: Strait of Hormuz, how to replace 21M bpd oil?? Existing bypass pipelines (Saudi 7M + UAE 1.8M) cover 40-45%. Full replacement? 10–20+ yrs, $40B+, geopolitically brutal, not realistic. Next 5 yrs: expansions might hit 55–65% max. https://t.co/eTeUaAMFgS
Escalation Risks Dampen Risk‑Taking, US Jobs Keep Dollar Flat
Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges: The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind...
War Fears Curb Risk Ahead of US Jobs Data
Fear that the Middle East war escalates in the coming days, before full liquidity returns next Tuesday, will likely limit risk taking today. US jobs is the focus in early North America. Three US army generals lost their...
Chinese Payment Stocks Jump as Yuan Used for Hormuz Tolls
SHANGHAI, April 3 (Reuters) - Shares of some Chinese companies engaged in cross-border payments surged on Friday, after commerce ministry mentioned that ships had used the Chinese yuan to pay tolls passing through the Strait of Hormuz.