Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Trump Tax Law Boosts Refunds by $350, Yet 60% of Savings Flow to Top Fifth of Earners
The 2026 tax bill raised the average U.S. tax refund by $350 to $3,521, but the Tax Policy Center estimates that roughly 60% of the total savings go to the top fifth of households earning more than $217,000. Wealth managers are scrambling to adjust strategies as the law deepens income inequality.
Iran’s Hormuz Leverage Looms Over Shipping as Cease‑Fire Talks Resume
Iran’s capacity to throttle vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz re‑emerged in a new round of US‑Iran cease‑fire negotiations, underscoring the strategic chokehold on roughly 20% of world oil and gas trade. Experts warn that any disruption could reverberate...
US CPI Set to Jump as Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with analysts warning of a sharp rise driven by a 1% jump in oil prices to $98.6 per barrel amid fragile US‑Iran ceasefire talks. Futures...
Anchored Inflation Expectations Reduce Fed Urgency on Oil Shocks
For a thorough answer to this question, I would highly recommend reading Bernanke's 2004 speech on this subject. Especially this part: "The public's expectation that inflation will remain low minimizes the second-round effects of oil price increases, which (in a virtuous...
Indian Rupee Hits 92.41/USD Amid West Asia Tensions and RBI Limits, Edges to 92.57
The Indian rupee appreciated to 92.41 per U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday, later opening at 92.57, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) directive to curb banks' overnight dollar positions and heightened geopolitical risk in West Asia....
Argentina’s 2026 Inflation Forecast Jumps to 29.1% as Middle East Oil Shock Hits
The Central Bank of Argentina’s latest REM survey lifted the median 2026 inflation forecast to 29.1%, a 3.1‑point jump driven by the Iran‑related oil price surge. The revision threatens the country’s recent disinflation gains and adds pressure on the peso,...
Italy Pushes Coal Exit to 2038 as Gas Prices Surge
Italy's parliament voted to postpone the permanent shutdown of its last coal‑fired power stations until 2038, up from the 2025/2028 deadlines set in 2017. The move, tied to a confidence vote, reflects soaring gas prices and a desire to keep...
U.S. Treasury $22 Billion 30‑Year Bond Auction Draws 2.39 Bid‑to‑Cover, Yield Near 4.88%
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion of 30‑year bonds, achieving a 4.876% high yield and a 2.39 bid‑to‑cover ratio, the lowest demand since November. The result highlights a market tilt toward front‑end securities amid geopolitical uncertainty and mixed inflation data.
US Oil Exports to Hit 5M Barrels a Day Amid Global Crunch
U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports are set to reach a record 5 million barrels per day in May, up sharply from roughly 3.97 million in March. Asian refiners are snapping up the cargoes to replace Middle Eastern supply disruptions, prompting a surge...
A US Strategy for Energy Competition with China in Emerging Markets
Emerging economies will drive the bulk of global energy demand growth over the next 20 years, turning them into a strategic battleground for influence. China has leveraged the Belt and Road Initiative to provide over $230 billion in concessional loans and...
India’s Textile, Apparel Exports to US Slide Sharply in Jan-Feb 2026
India’s textile and apparel shipments to the United States contracted sharply in the first two months of 2026, falling from $1.69 billion to about $1.34 billion. Imports dropped 18.2% year‑on‑year in January and deepened to a 28.7% decline in February. By contrast,...
Pharmaceutical Tariffs and the Restructuring of Global Drug Supply Chains
The United States is rolling out new tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products, affecting an estimated $200‑$250 billion in annual trade. Because 70‑80% of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production is concentrated in India and China, manufacturers face limited flexibility and longer lead...
Global Chaos Has Become a Permanent Guest in Your Portfolio. This Strategist Says Big Tech and Emerging Markets Are Now...
Nuveen strategist Laura Cooper warns that markets are under‑pricing the escalating Iran war and its broader geopolitical fallout. She advises investors to tilt toward U.S. large‑cap technology and AI, overweight emerging markets such as South Korea and Brazil, and add...
US Core Inflation Jumps to 3.3% Amid Iran War
Latest. Inflasi Mac 2026 US: Spiked to 3.3%, tertinggi hampir 2 tahun (Feb: 2.4%). Kenaikkan di sebab perang US-Iran driving up energy cost. Possibly no rate cut US in 2026 jika trend crude oil dan perang berterusan. “Figures came in line...
Core Inflation Stable, Yet Energy Shock Drives Airfare Surge
Core inflation in March was relatively muted despite a massive surge in overall inflation due to the Iran war. But there are signs that the energy shock is rippling across the economy. Airfares, for example, notched a 2.7% gain for...
Middle East Tensions Push CPI to 3.3% in March
The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% in March, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.3% as Middle East tensions drove energy costs sharply higher. The energy index jumped 10.9%, led by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, which...
Base Oil Prices Remain Elevated Since Ceasefire
Base oil markets remain under pressure despite the US‑Iran ceasefire announced on April 7. Group III spot prices have more than doubled in the United States and risen 70 % in Europe, reflecting the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which blocks...
India-UK FTA Likely by May, EU Pact Expected by Year-End: Texprocil
India’s free‑trade agreement with the United Kingdom is slated to take effect on 1 May 2024, while a parallel pact with the European Union is expected to be sealed by the end of the year, according to Texprocil. Both deals aim...
US Inflation Near Forecast, Boosts Rate Mean‑Reversion Play
The US inflation report was clearly impacted by the Hormuz crisis, but it once again came very close to the Nowcast IQ (https://t.co/00SY5qimgl) estimate, just 4 bps off on core and slightly more on headline. Our dovish lean was also...
March Inflation Hits 3.3% as Energy Prices Surge
JUST IN: Inflation soared in March to 3.3% y/y--> the highest annual rate since May 2024. The war in Iran is squeezing middle income and lower income households. **Inflation in March alone rose 0.9%. That’s the biggest one-month jump since June...
The Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness
The OECD’s 2026 Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness report warns that labour productivity has stalled across member economies, driven by weak business investment, slowing technology diffusion and lagging human‑capital accumulation. At the same time, rapid advances in artificial intelligence and...
Fuel Surcharges Give Rates to US a Boost – with More to Come
Ocean carriers have begun applying emergency fuel surcharges to U.S. shipments, pushing spot rates higher across major lanes. The World Container Index showed Shanghai‑Los Angeles rates rise 9% to $2,910 per 40 ft and Shanghai‑New York up 7% to $3,671. The most striking...
Russian Tanker Heads to Iran as Only Regional Oil Exporter
A Russian VLCC crossed the Strait of Hormuz heading to Kharg Island to load Iranian oil. Here you have a war against Iran and Iran is currently the only country in the region actively exporting oil on a daily basis —...
Morning Reads
Iran is now demanding a $2 million toll per very large crude carrier transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with payment required within seconds via Bitcoin to evade sanctions. Scans show only a handful of tankers have passed the chokepoint, underscoring a...
TMTB Morning News
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) announced its optical‑component order book is sold out through 2028, driven by massive capex from U.S. hyperscalers. CoreWeave secured a multiyear agreement to provide Anthropic with AI‑compute capacity for its Claude models, while Anthropic is also weighing...
Partnering with Iran Taints Business and Hinders Sanctions Relief
Ed makes the key point concerning tolls. Once you get in bed with Iran, you are doing business with a sanctioned government and whatever you do after is tainted. It will be difficult to conduct business with anyone else. This...
Russian Plan to Ban Foreign Carriers May Be ‘Symbolic’ Gesture
The Kremlin is drafting a decree that would bar major foreign container carriers—CMA CGM, Maersk, OOCL and X‑Press Feeders—from calling at Russian ports. The move comes after years of sanctions‑driven pull‑outs, leaving MSC as the sole major liner with two services...
US Deals Useless if It Can’t Control Israel
My friend & Johns Hopkins graduate Trita Parsi on the validity of any deal with the US: "If the US cannot control Israel, then what is the value of a deal with the US? Israel will restart the war and the...
US Tariffs Redefined Trade Landscape After One Year
"One year later: How US tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape" https://t.co/F70zDJrgV9 Good review from RBC: https://t.co/fdH0ifQhk3
Box Volumes Surge, but Instability Casts a Shadow
Global container volumes jumped to 15.04 m TEU in February, a 12‑13% year‑on‑year increase that outpaced the five‑year average despite the Chinese New Year lull. The surge coincided with a four‑point drop in the CTS Global Price Index to 74, suggesting...
Fed Fooled World Into Ignoring 4% Inflation
The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world 4% inflation didn't exist. https://t.co/2nQtRmlH9U
Oil Price Dip Signals Early Global Economic Slowdown
Given the world's dependence on fossil fuels, I would encourage you to look at this as the heart-rate monitor for the global economy, pulled forward by a few weeks. https://t.co/Q4PWG7rSWB
DGFT Rolls Out Procedure for Allocation of Calcined Coke
The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has issued a detailed procedure for allocating imports of calcined petroleum coke (CPC) for the aluminium sector in fiscal year 2026‑27. Applications are now open, and allocations will be based on the recommendations...
Trump Pushes Hormuz Reopening Before US‑Iran Peace Talks
Trump Demands Reopening of Hormuz Ahead of US-Iran Peace Talks. Demands and threats by the two key parties vs resolution. https://t.co/oul6jwCk4x
Bonds Unfazed: Inflation Still Poor, Outlook Deteriorates
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
Bullish Outlook: Positioning vs Seven-Day S&P Rally
When I ask others for the bull case from here in stocks, by far the most common answer is positioning and CTA buying. I have trouble squaring that idea with the fact that the S&P 500 is up 7 days in...
March CPI Spikes to 3.3%, Fed Cut Odds Zero
Overall US CPI moved up to 3.3% in March, the highest level since April 2024. The odds of a Fed rate cut this month: 0% https://t.co/LVl4ndgw8H
Energy Spikes Lift CPI 0.9%; Core Steadies at 0.2%
An eye-popping 0.9% *monthly* rise in the CPI was driven mainly by rising energy prices. Core inflation rose a more sedate 0.2% in March. https://t.co/547aq6hkvo
US Inflation Hotter Yet Below Forecast, Oil Drop Helps
⚠️ US inflation 🔥hotter than prior month Cooler than forecast 🥶 With Oil Drop, inflation fears easing CPI MoM 0.9% in line (Prev 0.3%) CPI YoY 3.3% (Forecast 3.4%, Prev 2.4%) Core CPI MoM 0.2% (Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) Core CPI YoY 2.6% (Forecast...
Fuel Oil Soars 44%, Used Cars Slip 3%
Price changes over last year (March CPI report) Fuel Oil: +44.2% Gasoline: +18.9% Gas Utilities: +6.4% Electricity: +4.6% Transportation: +4.1% Food away from home: +3.8% Medical Care: +3.7% Overall CPI: +3.3% Shelter: +3.0% Food at home: +1.9% New Cars: +0.5% Used Cars: -3.2%
EU Delays China Strategy Amid Iran Crisis Urgency
China sidelined: EU shelves rare strategy debate as Iran crisis takes priority Taken together, officials say, the risk is that Europe confronts China’s industrial challenge with fragmented tools, without political alignment needed to act. Board of Trade? https://t.co/XG9G3bzpxw
Control of Hormuz Strait Determines Global Power Balance
Already both the U.S. and Iran are claiming to have won the war and are negotiating about the negotiations. As explained in my recent note, it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz, which will have big implications...
India Postpones Coal Plant Upkeep Amid LNG Shortage
India is delaying maintenance on its coal power plants because of a gas supply crunch 🇮🇳 ⚠️ India’s LNG imports have dropped because of the war in the Middle East And with hot summer weather coming fast, India needs more coal...
UK Solar Startup Attracts China, US Interest
The British Solar Startup Being Courted by Both China and the U.S. - WSJ https://t.co/sX60BYn0kE
Trump Abandons Aggressive China Playbook, White House Reverses
Trump Quietly Scraps His Own Playbook on China The White House walks back the aggressive approach of the first administration, in a dramatic reversal Times change, leverage changes... https://t.co/emValbLeko via @WSJ
Discussing Strait of Hormuz on CNN with Laura Coates
My appearance last night on @CNN with @thelauracoates talking about the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/8c9CNwMekq
Live at 11 Am: Inflation, Ceasefire, Gold Safe Haven
I'm doing my customary weekend livestream today at 11 am because I'm on the road tomorrow. I'll be talking about US inflation, the ceasefire and if it will hold and whether gold is still a safe haven asset. Come join...
IMF Graphic Reveals Iran War’s Massive LNG Impact
😬Known info but still a stunning #IranWar #LNG graphic via the IMF's wider analysis of the war's impact. Link in next post. https://t.co/KokCb7gPBa
G10 Currency Consolidation Positive, Weekend Risks Loom
G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks: The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly…...
Iran’s Pipeline Strike Turns Chokepoint Into Pricing Leverage
Iran didn’t just hit barrels—it hit the workaround. ~700K bpd knocked out of the Saudi bypass pipeline and ~600K bpd off production Both flow and supply are under pressure. That’s how chokepoints turn into pricing power. https://t.co/8MpkdDc8Q3 #Oil #Energy #Hormuz