Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Tanker with Russian Flag Transits Hormuz
A Russian‑flagged VLCC named Arhimeda transited the Strait of Hormuz, one of only four tankers flying Moscow’s colors. The supertanker, built in 2000, headed westward toward Iran’s Kharg Island before listing “for orders,” indicating no fixed next call. Its recent cargo was Venezuelan Merey crude, and it was previously sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for alleged ties to Iran’s oil trade. The passage occurs as most Hormuz traffic has stalled amid the Israel‑Iran‑U.S. conflict.
Stocks Waver With Shaky Cease-Fire in Focus
Investors await the March CPI report, which economists expect to show a 0.9% monthly rise and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase—the steepest annual gain since May 2024. Brent crude has climbed nearly 2% to above $97 a barrel, keeping inflation pressures high....
Valuations Turn Attractive as Markets Look Beyond Uncertainty: A Balasubramanian
A Balasubramanian, MD & CEO of ABSL AMC, says Indian equities have slipped into a valuation sweet spot as geopolitical tensions ease and macro signals improve. The Nifty now trades below its long‑term average P/E, while credit and deposit growth are rebounding after...
How Energy Market Swings Are Reshaping Monetary Policy
Energy market turbulence is reverberating across the financial system, with crude‑oil price swings reigniting inflation worries and driving Treasury volatility to its highest level since the 2025 Liberation Day rally. The surge in Treasury convexity signals heightened directional uncertainty, forcing...
Peter Kyle Touts US Opportunities as OpenAI Pauses UK Investment
British Business Secretary Peter Kyle highlighted a "really great economic set of opportunities" between the United States and the United Kingdom, pointing to roughly $300 bn (£223 bn) of ongoing tech‑related commercial activity. He announced a trade mission that will send about...
Commodities: Oil Supported By Ongoing Supply Risks
Oil prices rose for a second consecutive session as fresh supply‑risk concerns in the Middle East kept Brent near $96 per barrel. Attacks on Saudi and Kuwaiti infrastructure have tightened the market, preserving a geopolitical risk premium despite cease‑fire talks....
Middle East Shock Hits Global Growth and Prices
Global business activity slowed sharply in March as the Middle East war dented demand, confidence and supply chains. The J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI fell to 51.0, its weakest reading in 11 months, while new orders hit a 28‑month low and...
Taiwan Sees only Warships and Warplanes as China Talks Peace with Opposition
Taiwan reported an unprecedented surge of Chinese naval activity, with nearly 100 navy and coast‑guard vessels operating around the island this week, far above the usual 50‑60 ships. The buildup coincides with Beijing’s peace overtures to opposition leader Cheng Li‑wun, who...
Myanmar’s Coup Leader Min Aung Hlaing Sworn in as President
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in Myanmar’s 2021 coup, was sworn in as president after a landslide vote by the pro‑military parliament. In his inauguration, he claimed the country is returning to democracy while pledging to improve...
US Isn’t Losing Soft Power in SE Asia — It’s Ceding It to China
The United States’ soft‑power advantage in Southeast Asia is eroding, not because of a structural collapse, but due to deliberate policy cuts and a shift toward Christian‑nationalist messaging that resonates poorly in the region. Data from the Brand Finance Global...
Splash Wrap: Fragile Hormuz Ceasefire Fails to Lift Traffic
A tentative U.S.-Iran cease‑fire has not restored traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving vessel movements at a near‑standstill. Meanwhile, Exmar is set to receive the world’s first ammonia‑powered gas carriers, a 46,000 cu m pair built by Hyundai Heavy Industries. Panama...
US-Iran Ceasefire Eases Oil Prices but Gulf Economies Showing Strain – Oxford Economics
A two‑week US‑Iran cease‑fire announced on April 7 triggered a 13% drop in Brent crude, pulling prices to about $93 per barrel. Oxford Economics still expects a two‑month closure of the Strait of Hormuz followed by lingering disruptions, forecasting a 0.8%...
Tax, Not Dollar, Is the Main Barrier to FII Inflows
Nifty has been going up in the face of an enormous rise in FII selling [annual numbers]. So the selling has not mattered but still all eyes are on FIIs. I can only think of two factors. 1.Withholding Tax [ also...
Germany's Social Burden Swells, Memorial Day Delayed
Good Morning from #Germany where the social contribution burden keeps rising. A new study says the Social Contribution Memorial Day shifts to April 11 in 2026, 2 days later than a year earlier, mainly due to higher health and long-term...
‘We Owe It to the Next Generation’ to Get National Debt Under Control, Says Think-Tank Boss, as U.S. Borrowing Hits...
The Congressional Budget Office reports a $1.17 trillion deficit for the first six months of FY2026, pushing total federal debt past $39 trillion. Interest obligations alone exceed $1 trillion this year, while $1.7 trillion of outlays are tied to mandatory programs such as Social...
Is Australia at Risk of a Recession? Here’s What the Data Actually Shows
Australia’s economy is not in recession, but growth is decelerating. Real GDP expanded 2.6% year‑on‑year in the December quarter, the strongest pace in nearly three years, while more recent indicators show weakening consumer confidence, a 0.5% drop in household spending...
Rising Energy Prices Trigger Systemic Cost‑of‑Living Surge
This isn’t just about oil. It’s a shift in the entire system. Energy → food → cost of living When energy moves structurally higher, everything built on top of it follows. That means: Higher food prices More pressure on households Less margin for error And a move away...
After Talking the Talk, It Is Time for US (and Iran) to Walk the Walk
President Trump declared a two‑week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a flurry of diplomatic back‑and‑forth. Tehran confirmed the truce but insists on a 10‑point proposal, while Washington negotiates on a 15‑point framework, accusing Iran of...
China's Sulphuric Acid Export Ban Boosts Copper Prices
Chinese authorities have announced that China will not be allowed to export sulphuric acid from next month, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid. This means that neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid can be exported will be able...
India Eyes 20 More Countries for Open Market Access in Next Big Trade Bet
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal announced that the government is negotiating free‑trade agreements with at least 20 additional countries, adding to the nine FTAs signed in the past 3½ years that already cover 38 developed nations. The new round targets...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The European session will feature only low‑tier releases—Swiss consumer confidence and Italian industrial production—so market impact is expected to be muted. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iran delegations are traveling to Islamabad to begin peace talks that could influence global economic stability....
Middle East Producers Gear Up for Hormuz Export Restart
Middle Eastern producers are urging Asian refiners to submit crude loading programmes for April and May as they prepare for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A two‑week U.S.-Iran ceasefire raised hopes of resuming shipments, but Tehran has...
Sánchez to Push China to Hand Over Tech Secrets on Beijing Trip
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will travel to Beijing to seal a High‑Quality Investment Agreement that obliges Chinese firms to share technology, use local suppliers and create jobs in Spain. The pact aims to address Spain’s $36.1 billion trade deficit with...
MCX Crude Oil Prices Headed for Weekly Loss Amid Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire; What’s the Strategy Ahead?
MCX crude oil futures jumped over 3% on Friday, opening at ₹9,200 per barrel (≈$111) as international markets reacted to supply worries in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the rally, Brent and WTI have each fallen 11% this week, the...
Australia: Battery Storage Cushions AU$1 Billion Fuel Shock as Climate Council Demands May Budget Action
The Climate Council’s new report warns that Australia’s dependence on imported fossil fuels has triggered a $710 million fuel shock in March, as geopolitical tensions drive petrol prices above AU$3 per litre. It highlights that grid‑scale battery storage has already offset...
Unemployment Rate Remains at 2.9pct in February - DOSM
Malaysia's unemployment rate held at 2.9% in February 2026, with the labor force edging up to 17.30 million. The number of employed rose modestly to 16.79 million, while the unemployed fell to 506,800. Participation remained steady at 70.9%, and the employee share...
Germany March Final CPI +2.7% vs +2.7% Y/Y Prelim
Germany’s consumer price index for March confirmed a 2.7% year‑over‑year increase, matching the preliminary estimate and up from 1.9% in February. The rise was driven primarily by a 7.2% jump in energy prices, with fuel costs soaring 20% amid the...
FX Daily: First Inflation Test
The market awaits the March US CPI report, expected to show a 0.9‑percentage‑point monthly jump and a 3.4% year‑on‑year increase, with core inflation only modestly higher. A higher‑than‑expected headline could keep the dollar firm, but the Fed is likely to...
Oil Prices Jump $1 as Hormuz Traffic Stalls
Oil Prices Rise $1 Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruption Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices advanced by $1 per barrel as traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route remains nearly halted, impacting global oil supply chains.
Not Just Pakistan — China Holds the Key to Ending Middle East War, Securing Lasting U.S.-Iran Peace
China stepped in to persuade Iran to accept a preliminary cease‑fire, enabling U.S. and Iranian delegates to meet in Pakistan. Beijing’s behind‑the‑scenes diplomacy, including vetoing a UN resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, positioned it as a potential guarantor of...
Bank of Korea Holds Rates Steady, Stressing Outlook Is Data Dependent
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on April 10, citing persistent inflation and heightened geopolitical risk. Governor Rhee, set to retire on April 20, emphasized a data‑dependent approach and avoided any forward guidance on future...
Gold Overtakes Treasuries in Central Bank Reserves
🔥Gold is making history: Gold now makes up 24% of global central bank reserves, surpassing US Treasuries at 21% for the first time since the mid 1990s. This is a complete reversal from Q4 2015, when Treasuries made up 33% of reserves...
Asia Week Ahead: China Releases Data on GDP, Trade, Retail Sales, Housing Prices
China will release a suite of economic data next week, including first‑quarter GDP, trade balances, retail sales, housing prices and industrial production. Analysts expect March exports to rise 8.8% YoY and imports 10.1%, creating a $108.2 bn trade surplus. Q1 GDP...
Gulf Ceasefire Builds Hopes for Lower Mortgage Rates
The ceasefire in the Gulf has lifted expectations that UK mortgage costs could ease. Capital Economics forecasts average rates for borrowers with 25% deposits falling from about 5% now to roughly 4.3% by January 2027, trimming monthly repayments by around £100...
ADB Ups India's FY26 Growth Projection to 6.9% on Strong Domestic Demand, Lower US Tariffs
The Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for India’s FY 26 GDP growth to 6.9%, citing resilient domestic demand and the recent easing of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. The projection contrasts with the Reserve Bank of India’s more bullish 7.6%...
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Russian Diplomat: Moscow Will Not Abandon Cuba, Help with Energy
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told a Cuban press conference that Moscow will not abandon its strategic partnership with Cuba, pledging continued energy assistance beyond the recent delivery of 700,000 barrels of oil on the sanctioned tanker Anatoly Kolodkin. He...
China’s Lending Prioritizes Short‑Term Demand Over Viability
@hofunghung makes an important point: "In many ways the dynamics of China's external lending are very similar to the dynamics of China's internal lending". In either case, he argues, the purpose of the project funded is to generate demand and employment...
Oil Shock Exposes Fragile Global Fiscal Buffers, Says IMF Chief
IMF chief says the oil shock tests a world with little fiscal buffer https://t.co/AVPFNRJb5I via @jdorosario https://t.co/bV6T4JCGWB
India Inc Ramps up Exports as Iran Ceasefire Reopens Middle East Trade
India Inc is rapidly reactivating exports to the Middle East following a two‑week Iran ceasefire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Pharma, packaged‑food and electrical‑goods manufacturers report rising demand as regional inventories are restocked and reconstruction projects loom. Companies such...
Libya’s Oil Steady, Prices Surge, Dinar Jumps 27%
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
Sánchez to Demand China's Tech Secrets in Beijing
Sánchez to push China to hand over tech secrets on Beijing trip https://t.co/iSThlJP5lO via @basteiro https://t.co/gW7fldvHZn
The Ceasefire, Africa and Senior: Companies and Markets Show
The episode opens with Julian Hoffman dissecting the shaky US‑Iran ceasefire, highlighting the lack of clear terms, ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the mixed market reaction that has nonetheless lifted European equities and trimmed oil prices. The...
Pakistan's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Rate, Fueling Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's March inflation is 7.3%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15%/yr. That’s ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5-7%/yr. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/IKlK5BLB5t
Global Rates Climb After Latest Trump Shock
Global rate path veers higher in wake of another Trump shock https://t.co/xtMlttlWvY with @CraigStirling https://t.co/mrRZfr13lH
Venezuela’s Treacherous Recovery
The United States has installed an interim caretaker government in Venezuela after removing President Maduro, opening the door to a potential economic rebound driven by oil, mining and diaspora capital. Restoring oil production could require more than $100 billion and a...
Goldman: 10% Gas Price Rise Boosts Inflation
Goldman on what a 10% increase in natural gas prices means for inflation > https://t.co/RDkqRBzqV2
US Debt Costs Remain High, Slightly Less Ugly
It’s ugly, but slightly less ugly: US Government Interest Payments, Tax Receipts, Average Interest Rate on the Debt, and Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Q4 2025 https://t.co/DGqm2fqkjX https://t.co/HaOX0c5eRE
ECB Cuts QE by Half, Sheds €66B in March
The Once Uber-Dovish ECB Continues QT, Shed €66 Billion in March, Has now Shed 50% of QE Assets since Peak. Marking its gold to market every quarter (unlike the Fed), the ECB booked another big write-up of its gold holdings in...
Six‑Month Core PCE Inflation Hits Biggest Rise Since June
Six-Month Core PCE Inflation (still before Iran War) Jumps by Most since June 2024. The Fed Needs to Pay Attention. “Market-Based Core PCE price index,” which excludes the imputed housing components, spiked by the most since Feb 2023 https://t.co/KOLueRyxu5 https://t.co/DPUqjECgON
China Touts Domestic Demand, yet Auto Sales Slump
China's leaders now at least give lip service to supporting domestic demand -- and sometimes even claim not to want to rely on exports for growth. But in at least one prominent sector, domestic demand is down (autos) 1/ https://t.co/jZxOmf68t9