Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as fuel cuts mask rising core inflation
The consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% forecast, helped by a temporary fuel excise cut that lowered transport costs. Meanwhile, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook.
Trump Says Iran 'Better Stop Now' If It's Charging Oil Tankers Fees to Go Through Strait of Hormuz
Former President Donald Trump warned Iran on Truth Social to stop charging fees for oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is reportedly planning to levy cryptocurrency payments for passage, a move that could tighten an already fragile cease‑fire reached two days earlier. The strait carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil, and the U.S. has tied a two‑week suspension of hostilities to an immediate, unrestricted reopening. Trump’s statements also framed the cease‑fire as a victory and dismissed media criticism.
Australia Details Feb Chickpea, Lentil Exports
Australia shipped 292,347 tonnes of chickpeas and 179,335 tonnes of lentils in February 2026, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Chickpea volumes matched February 2025 levels and were more than triple the 89,420 t sent in January 2026, with India taking 231,197 t. Lentil...
Gold Heads for Weekly Gain as Traders Weigh Iran Truce Prospects
Gold edged toward a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, hovering around $4,765 an ounce. The metal is on track for roughly a 2% rise this week as central‑bank buying offsets lingering inflation worries. Traders are eyeing a U.S. delegation...
Ecuador Raises Tariffs on Colombia to 100% From 50%
Ecuador announced a steep increase in tariffs on Colombian imports, raising the rate to 100% from the previous 50% effective May 1. The move follows Quito’s claim that Bogotá has failed to implement effective border security against drug trafficking. Colombia rejected...
Trump Says Iran Should Not Charge Fees to Tankers Going Through Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump warned Iran on April 9 that any fees imposed on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz must stop immediately. Iran has hinted at collecting tolls in cryptocurrency despite a fragile two‑week ceasefire announced on April 7. Ship...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Friday 10 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified Thursday as Iran warned it could abandon the US‑Iran cease‑fire after Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while the United States dispatched a delegation to Pakistan for talks. The fragility of the truce pushed oil...
Europe’s Gas Market Faces a Brutal Storage Refill Season
Europe’s gas market has cooled from March’s three‑year highs, but analysts warn the relief is fleeting. Storage levels sit at just 29% of capacity, well below the 35% benchmark from a year ago, leaving the continent exposed as it races...
DON'T BE A VICTIM OF THE MATH: The M2 Explosion That's Coming, Inevitable Debt Monetization & How to Protect Your...
The United States faces a projected cumulative deficit of $22 trillion over the next ten years, far exceeding official forecasts that assume no new wars or recessions. To fund this gap, the Federal Reserve will likely resort to massive balance‑sheet expansion,...
Middle East Crisis Is Pushing China to Deepen Latin America Ties
Amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted China's vulnerability to concentrated energy supplies. Beijing is turning to Latin America for food, copper, lithium and other strategic commodities to diversify its import base. The United States'...
Daily Energy Report
An attack on Saudi Arabia's East‑West pipeline knocked out roughly 700,000 barrels per day of throughput, tightening global oil supplies. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports surged to a record 43.3 million tonnes in March, driven by new projects and a redirection of...
Keir Starmer: 'I'm Fed Up' With Trump and Putin Affecting UK Energy Costs
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told ITV’s Talking Politics podcast he is "fed up" with UK energy bills swinging wildly because of actions by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He linked the volatility to recent oil‑price spikes...
The World’s 500 Richest People Made More than a Quarter Trillion Yesterday as Volatile Markets React to Fragile Iran War...
Wall Street rallied after President Trump withdrew his dire Iran warning, propelling the Dow up 2.85% and the S&P 500 2.51%. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index recorded a $265 billion one‑day gain for the world’s 500 richest, the second‑largest since 2012. Meta CEO...
Can the Middle East Ceasefire Hold?
A fragile 14‑day cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict is under strain as Israel continues air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, rejecting Tehran’s claim that the truce covers the north. Pakistan is set to host the first round of negotiations in...
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
The latest U.S. data releases show personal income excluding transfers slipped 0.1% month‑over‑month, falling short of Bloomberg’s +0.4% consensus. February household consumption also edged lower than analysts expected. Both metrics are among the two primary series the NBER Business Cycle...
Iran Attacks on Crucial Saudi Pipeline and Production Facilities Slash Kingdom's Oil Output
Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's strategic East‑West pipeline, knocking out about 700,000 barrels per day of capacity, and simultaneously struck the Manifa and Khurais production complexes, trimming Saudi output by roughly 600,000 barrels per day. The pipeline, which routes crude to...
How an Ancient Resin Traded for Centuries Got Snarled up by the Iran War
Frankincense, a 6,000‑year‑old aromatic resin harvested from Boswellia trees across the Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa, is now caught in the fallout of the U.S.–Iran conflict. The war has heightened the risk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, prompting...
Asian Stocks Shy of Full Recovery Amid Fragile Iran Ceasefire
A tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran lifted some pressure on Asian equity markets on Wednesday. However, the rally was limited as Israel’s large‑scale strikes on Lebanon, which Tehran says breach the truce, kept regional tensions high. Major...
Canadian Variable-Rate Mortgages Surge As BoC Recreates Renewal Trap
Canadian lenders advanced a record CAD 38.3 billion (~US$28 billion) in uninsured mortgages in January, a 3.3% year‑over‑year rise. Variable‑rate mortgages surged to roughly 45% of new funding, up sharply from a July 2023 low of 4.9%. The Bank of Canada’s October rate cut...
Oil Pares Gains to Close up 1% as Israel Plans Peace Talks with Lebanon
Oil prices closed up about 1% on Thursday, with Brent at $95.92 and WTI at $97.87, but both remained below the $100 barrier for a second day. The market initially spiked over 5% on doubts about the durability of the...
Oil Shock Inflation Temporary, Fed Should Keep Cutting Rates
Kevin Hassett tells @MariaBartiromo the inflation from the oil-price shock will be temporary and should allow the Fed to continue cutting interest rates: "There are a lot of people who are currently at the Federal Reserve that understand that, that this...
Upside or Downside Risk to Threat to Destroy Civilization?
The Substack post satirically examines how former President Donald Trump's hyperbolic threat to "destroy an entire civilization" could be interpreted by investors as a market risk. It references CNBC anchor Sara Eisen’s on‑air reaction and uses Star Wars imagery—short‑term out‑of‑the‑money...
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Markets News, April 9, 2026: U.S. Indexes End Higher, Oil Pares Gains on Iran Ceasefire Optimism; Dow Turns Positive for...
U.S. equity markets rallied on Thursday, with the Nasdaq up 0.8%, the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Dow Jones gaining 0.6% and moving back into positive territory for the year. The bounce followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two‑week...
US‑Iran Two‑Week Ceasefire Tested as Israel Escalates in Lebanon, Oil Markets Jolt
The United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire on April 8, 2026, but Israel’s massive bombardment of Lebanon and Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have already strained the truce. Oil prices surged, dragging down European...
US Stocks Today: US Stocks End Higher as Middle East Peace Talks Lift Sentiment
U.S. equities closed higher on Thursday as emerging peace talks in the Middle East eased concerns over the fragile U.S.–Iran truce. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all posted gains, with the S&P 500 reclaiming its 100‑day and 200‑day moving...
IMF Staff-Level Deal Unlocks $700 Million for Sri Lanka’s Reform Programme
The International Monetary Fund and Sri Lankan authorities have reached a staff‑level agreement that will release about $700 million in financing under the Extended Fund Facility. The deal follows a 5% growth in 2025, a drop in inflation to 2.2% and...
Mortgage Rates Spike to 6.46%, Sending MBS Yields Higher and Housing Market Reeling
U.S. mortgage rates jumped to 6.46% amid geopolitical tension, lifting yields on mortgage‑backed securities and tightening credit conditions for homebuyers. The surge reverses a brief decline that had raised hopes for a strong spring housing market in Greater Boston.
Iran Temporarily Closes Strait of Hormuz, Crude Futures Surge Over 5%
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh announced a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Israel of breaching the cease‑fire. The move pushed U.S. crude oil futures more than 5% higher after a 16% plunge the day before, reviving...
Strait of Hormuz: How Food and Beverage Companies Can Navigate the Latest Developments
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted key inputs for food and beverage manufacturers, notably polyethylene and aluminum used in packaging, global fertilizer supplies, and freight costs driven by soaring oil prices. These shocks create three primary challenges:...
U.S Consumer Spending Meets Caution
Morgan Stanley strategist Michelle Weaver discusses the mixed signals in U.S. consumer spending, noting that while overall spending remains positive, consumer confidence is slipping. Her AlphaWise survey shows a net spending outlook of +18% but a net confidence outlook of...
Friday: Oil Falls After Israel Agrees to Ceasefire Talks
The episode covers the market reaction to Israel’s agreement to ceasefire talks with Lebanon, which pushed oil prices lower and boosted risk assets like the S&P 500 and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. ANZ economists explain how the Middle‑East conflict,...
Ag Economist Warns Middle East Conflict Has Economy Teetering
Dr. David Kohl, a Virginia Tech agricultural economist, warns that the ongoing Middle East conflict—fueling gasoline at $4, diesel at $5, and oil at $100 a barrel—could trigger a global recession if it endures for 15 weeks. He notes that...
Only 12% View US as Ally, 36% See Threat
only 12% of europeans polled across six countries see the united states as a close ally. 36% see it as a threat.
1970s Shah Warned of Oil Stakes in Hormuz
In the 1970s, the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the father of @PahlaviReza, spoke about the Strait of Hormuz…. He was a strong ally of the United States until he was overthrown in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini… In this...
The Struggle to Diversify Rare Earth Supply Chains
Demand for rare earth magnets has doubled since 2015, and the International Energy Agency projects a 30% increase by 2030. China now controls roughly 60% of mined production, over 90% of refining, and 95% of permanent‑magnet output, creating a single‑source...
Iran's 15 Attacks in 12 Days Cripple Oil, LNG Flows
15 attacks in 12 days by Iran disrupted global oil and LNG flows #OilMarkets #Energy #Shipping #Geopolitics #Hormuz https://t.co/ocx5vrbgxM
US Labor Participation Hits 1977 Low, Threatening Growth
US labor-force participation fell to 61.9% in March, the lowest since 1977, excluding the pandemic episode. WORK IS BECOMING UNFASHIONABLE. FEWER WORKERS = SLOWER GROWTH. https://t.co/gyKlvb212z
Brazil on Track to Fill China Beef Export Quota by May as Prices Hit All-Time High
Brazil is on track to exhaust its 1.106 million‑tonne beef export quota to China by early May as cattle prices hit a record R$365 (≈US$71.6) per arroba. March saw a historic 233,950 tonnes of fresh beef shipped, generating roughly R$7 billion (≈US$1.37 billion) in...
Tariff Refund Uncertain as Alternative Authorities May Cut $168B
Fox: Is Trump expecting to pay back $168B in tariff revenue post the SCOTUS decision? NEC Hassett: Uh...there's alternative authorities that perhaps could reduce that number quite a bit. Uh...it's a work in progress. Does that mean you are not getting a...
Dallas Fed: Feb PCE Inflation at 1.
The Dallas Fed trimmed mean inflation gauge suggests firm February PCE inflation reflected larger increases in a smaller subset of items. Trimmed mean PCE inflation printed at a 1.8% annualized rate in February. The 12-month reading fell to 2.3%, the lowest since...
Recognizing the Role of Propaganda in Russia’s Infrastructure of Aggression
A Kyiv‑based study of over 1,000 Russian prisoners of war found that soldiers who embraced Kremlin propaganda were up to six times more likely to view the invasion as legitimate and nearly twice as likely to want to return to...
Iran's Grip on Hormuz Makes Strait Unassailable
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke on Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz: "It's very clear that there's no way in which the Strait can be taken now." https://t.co/dYniHw5J0A
Live Talk: Iran War Ceasefire's Impact on Oil
Sitting down with @notthreadguy for a live conversation about the Iran War, the "ceasefire", and what it all means for oil. Starting now, tune in!
Mortgage Rates Trickle Just a Bit Lower
Mortgage rates edged lower on April 10, 2026, with the average 30‑year fixed rate slipping to 6.39%, a 0.02‑percentage‑point drop from the previous day. The modest decline followed headlines of de‑escalation in the Israel‑Lebanon conflict, which temporarily eased oil‑price concerns....
Broaden View: Compare Foreign Holdings Across All Sovereigns
If you routinely post a chart of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries but never post a chart of the foreign holdings of other global Sovereigns, you are missing the forest for the trees. https://t.co/GMjr60j0dV
Inflation Surge: CPI Expected 3.3%, Dollar Under Pressure
The Feb PCE deflator - Fed's favorite inflation measure - held at 2.8% earlier. That's well above the 2.0% target...before energy prices sored. Tomorrow's March CPI update is expected to accelerate from 2.4% in Feb to 3.3%. Here's the #Dollar...
Macro Buffers to Help India Tide over Gulf Crisis: World Bank
The World Bank projects India’s GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, noting that the ongoing Gulf conflict could shave a few tenths off the outlook. It assumes oil prices of $90‑100 a barrel and expects growth to rebound to about...
2026 PCE Durables Prices Surge, Double 2025 Pace
2026 is already tracking to be another abnormal year for PCE durables prices, up 1.5% since December, double the pace at this same point in 2025. Over the prior 5 non-pandemic years, durables prices were up 0.3% on average through...
Gold, Not Currency, Will Dominate Future Reserves
"But what currency will replace the USD in global FX reserves?" -Question I've been asked repeatedly over the past 10 years. "No currency will...gold will." -My answer every time over those 10 years. What if the currency system...
Self‑Sufficiency Policy Reverts Century, Undermines US Global Power
Forcing everyone to secure their own resources takes us back about a century, triggering conflicts and competition over resource control. This move weakens America's global position... #geopolitics #trump #nato https://t.co/XjQdUuGG3H
Iran Now Demands $2M Bitcoin for Hormuz Passage
Iran is charging up to $2M in Bitcoin to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't a win it was literally free just a few weeks ago...