Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
The Strait of Hormuz Is Not Open as Iran Controls Access After Ceasefire, UAE Oil CEO Says
Following a U.S.-Iran cease‑fire, Iran has begun requiring ships to obtain its permission before transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effectively keeping the waterway closed to free navigation, according to ADNOC CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber. The restriction affects roughly 20 % of global oil supplies, with about 230 tankers loaded and waiting to exit the Persian Gulf. Al Jaber warned that each day of limited access compounds supply delays, tightens markets and pushes oil prices higher. The cease‑fire does not guarantee the immediate, unrestricted flow demanded by the United States and the energy sector.
Middle East War Headlines Instantly Dent Oil and Gilt Markets
Markets remain incredibly sensitive to Middle East War headlines. Case in point: the latest Israel-Lebanon headlinea erased 4 percentage points of today’s oil price gains (CNBC chart below). Even more significantly, they took 8 basis points off the 10-year UK gilt...
MacroVoices #527 Adam Rozencwajg: What Comes Next After The Iran Crisis
Adam Rozencwajg appears on MacroVoices to dissect the fallout from the Iran crisis. He highlights a sharp physical dislocation in the oil market, pushing prices higher and tightening supply. The conversation also covers rising food prices, inflation pressures, a potential...
A Global Food Emergency: Why the Closed Strait of Hormuz Puts Half the World’s Calories at Risk
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer shipments, driving U.S. fertilizer prices up more than 40% in a single month. Higher fertilizer costs force farmers to cut applications,...
Jet Fuel Supply Disruptions Are Comparable to 9/11 and Could Take Months to Replenish Even if Hormuz Strait Is Reopening,...
IATA chief Willie Walsh warned that jet‑fuel shortages caused by the Iran‑related war will linger for months even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Refining capacity in the Middle East has fallen 10‑12%, removing over 2 million barrels per day from...
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
Iran Energy Shock Tests Limits of Trump’s Vision of US Energy Dominance
President Trump claims U.S. energy dominance despite Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade, yet gasoline prices surged to over $4 per gallon, costing households $8.4 billion in a month. The United States, while a net exporter, still imports roughly 6 million barrels of...
America’s War Is Adding to Africa’s Debt Burden
The US‑Israeli war in Iran has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, adding roughly $4.4 billion to Africa’s annual debt burden. With $149 billion of Eurobonds outstanding, the continent now faces $900 million to $1.2 billion of extra fiscal pressure each year. The increase stems...
France's $15B Gold Pull Signals Global Reserve Shift
My remarks w/ @DailyCaller on the French withdrawing $15B in gold from the US: “The risk of having foreign reserve assets frozen in the US came up when the US & its allies froze Russian central bank assets in Feb. 2022.” I anticipate...
Kalshi Says Its Edge Comes From Retail Traders but the Picture Is More Complex
Kalshi’s founders argue that its predictive edge stems from a broad base of retail traders rather than Wall Street professionals. An internal review of the platform’s top 1,000 users shows few with elite academic credentials or prior market experience, while...
When Debt Outpaces Income, Fiat Currency Weakens
Throughout history, all fiat currencies eventually face the same pressures. When debt grows faster than income and money needs to be created to fill the gap, the value of that money changes. This isn’t a prediction—it’s a pattern that has repeated...
India Navigating Global Uncertainties Like a ‘Chakravyuh’: Shaktikanta Das
India’s economy grew 7.6% in FY 2025‑26, showing resilience amid heightened global volatility. Principal Secretary Shaktikanta Das likened navigating the crisis to a “Chakravyuh,” stressing that a calibrated exit is essential to avoid new imbalances. He pointed to macro‑stability, rapid digitalisation,...
All Parties Face Multiple Red Lines in Conflict
A lot of red lines for all sides involved... Geopolitical Guy | Substack Source: www.graphicnews.com
Letters to the Editor Dated April 09 2026
The Hindu BusinessLine’s April 9 letters highlight a newly announced cease‑fire in the Middle‑East conflict, which sparked a modest rally in Brent crude and equity markets. However, Iran’s $2 million per‑ship toll for safe passage through the Hormuz Strait threatens to undermine...
Exxon Mobil Production Falls 6% in Q1 as Gulf Conflict Hits Output
Exxon Mobil said its global oil and gas output slipped 6% in Q1 2026 after missile attacks on LNG facilities in Qatar disrupted its Gulf operations. The shortfall translates into a $3.7 billion earnings hit for its energy products division, prompting...
Middle East Crisis Live: Netanyahu Ready ’to Begin Direct Negotiations’ with Lebanon After Ordering People to Flee
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he has instructed his cabinet to open direct negotiations with Lebanon, focusing on disarming Hezbollah and establishing formal peace relations. The move follows repeated Lebanese requests and comes amid heightened regional tension after...
Indonesian Rupiah Slides to 17,070 per Dollar, Squeezing Businesses
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to roughly 17,070 per U.S. dollar on April 9, 2026, intensifying cost‑push inflation for manufacturers that rely on imported components. Business leaders warned the slide threatens cash flow, margins and overall demand, and urged the government...
Lasting Economic Costs of War
The International Monetary Fund warned that wars inflict deep, lasting economic damage, with output in conflict zones falling about 3% at the start and accumulating roughly 7% losses over five years—exceeding the impact of financial crises or natural disasters. Rising...
How Global Conflicts Are Threatening India’s Maritime Trade and Energy Security | Energonomics Podcast | EP 15
The Energonomics podcast examines how escalating geopolitical tensions are jeopardizing India’s maritime trade and energy security. It highlights the vulnerability of critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, where conflict could disrupt oil and cargo...
Significant Downgrades to Fourth-Quarter 2025 GDP, What Happened?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 real GDP down to a 0.5% annualized gain, a 0.2‑percentage‑point drop from the second estimate and far below the Bloomberg consensus of no change. The downgrade marks the second consecutive negative revision...
Deutsche Bank Says China Is Energy ‘Winner’ in Age of War
Deutsche Bank’s emerging‑markets CIO Jacky Tang argues that the Middle‑East war makes China the clear energy winner. While Iran‑linked oil imports pose a test, China’s rapid clean‑tech expansion and near‑40% renewable electricity mix cushion it from oil price shocks. Tang...
The More Important Inflation Rate
The Iran‑Houthi conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven a sharp jump in the one‑year inflation swap, which rose 62 basis points since Feb. 27, while the 12‑to‑24‑month forward rate (1y1y) has increased only 18 basis points....
Corridor Of Power: China’s Inland Hub Connects to ASEAN
China’s New International Land‑Sea Trade Corridor (New ILSTC) moved 1.425 million TEUs in 2025, a 47.6% year‑on‑year rise, and generated $196 billion in trade value, up 17.9%. ASEAN’s share of Chinese exports climbed to 17.6% in 2025, while shipments to Southeast Asia jumped...
CBAM: EU Carbon Border Levy Certificate Price Confirmed for First Quarter of 2026
The European Commission has announced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price for the first quarter of 2026 at €75.36 per tonne of CO₂. Importers of carbon‑intensive products into the EU will be required to purchase these certificates starting...
Banks Close Out Bulk of Their Long Dollar Positions Ahead of RBI’s April 10 Deadline
The Reserve Bank of India issued a prudential circular on March 27 requiring banks to cap their net open position in INR at $100 million, with compliance due by April 10. In response, banks have unwound roughly 90 percent of the estimated $18‑30 billion...
BSP: Policy Vigilance to Continue After S&P Tempers Philippine Outlook
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it will keep monitoring the impact of the Middle East war after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Philippines' sovereign outlook from positive to stable while keeping the BBB+ rating. S&P cited the country's strong...
Matchett in The Economic Times, Hindustan Times, Nepal News, The Express Tribune, on Warning Against US Striking Iranian Critical Infrastructure
Atlantic Council analyst Ginger Matchett warned that a U.S. strike on Iran’s power grid would trigger a humanitarian disaster, disrupting water, health care and food supplies. She and colleague Joseph Webster argued that such an attack would likely provoke Iranian...
Both Sides Win
Award‑winning political cartoonist Michael de Adder contributed a guest post titled “Both Sides Win,” featuring a new cartoon that pits an Iranian cleric offering control of the Strait of Hormuz against a triumphant Donald Trump clutching a trophy. The piece highlights...
Emerging Markets Outlook: Has the Asset Class Finally Turned a Corner?
Emerging‑market equities have finally outpaced U.S. stocks, delivering their widest performance gap in years after a decade‑plus of under‑performance. The Wealth Enterprise Briefing attributes the shift to stronger balance sheets, improved profitability and accelerating earnings momentum. The composition of the...
Iran War to Cut Global Growth: IMF
The International Monetary Fund said it will trim its global growth outlook in the upcoming World Economic Outlook because the war in Iran has created a severe energy supply shock. The conflict has damaged key Gulf infrastructure, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan...
Gas Turbine Supply Crunch Set to Raise Prices 195% by 2027: WoodMac
Wood Mackenzie forecasts gas turbine prices to soar to $600 per kilowatt by the end of 2027, a 195% jump from 2019 levels. The surge is driven by specialized labor shortages, hot‑section component bottlenecks, and trade‑related cost pressures, compounded by...
Turkey's Central Bank Loses 128 Tons Gold Amid Lira Pressure
The latest data - out today - show gold holdings by Turkey's central bank falling a further 8 tons in the week to April 3. This brings the total drop to 128 tons since depreciation pressure on the Lira peg...
Trump Pushes Rate Cuts, Fed Resists Higher Interest
Trump and the FED. They are fighting over interest rates. Trump wants them to go down drastically. The FED wants to keep them higher. Listen to Matthew Piepenburg his vision here: https://t.co/DjayphsEa4
Iron Ore Slips on Signs of BHP-China Thaw
Iron ore prices fell to a one‑month low after Bloomberg reported that BHP’s incoming CEO, Brandon Craig, visited Beijing. The visit sparked speculation that the long‑running pricing dispute between BHP and China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) may be easing. Futures...
Italy Urges EU to Suspend Budget Rules Amid Iran Crisis
Italy says the EU should pause its budget rules if Iran crisis persists https://t.co/T2VEpLuhy8 via @Alemrome https://t.co/Ezc3ypjswJ
Israel-Lebanon Talks Boost Treasury Gains, Optimism Rises
Another does of optimism after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon. USTs reversed earlier losses and surged higher with long-end lagging before 30y auction. WIs 4.88
Why Is Anthony Albanese Visiting Singapore Amid Australia’s Fuel Crisis – and What Could Come From It?
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese arrived in Singapore ahead of schedule to discuss fuel security with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The leaders will focus on ensuring uninterrupted supplies of petrol, diesel and LNG amid a regional fuel crunch sparked...
Brazil's Real Yields Match Hypothetical 12% US Rates
Wow I wasn't aware just how positive Brazilian real rates were. This would be like if U.S. interest rates at 12%... https://t.co/M9wTdfi05a
Iran Ceasefire Sends Prediction Markets Into Turmoil
"contract resolved to "yes" following Tuesday evening's announcements, but its outcome has since been changed to "disputed" given continued disruptions to Hormuz Strait shipments and enduring hostilities" Iran Ceasefire Wreaks Havoc on Prediction Markets https://t.co/uv56XlWTW9
Hormuz Toll Debate: China Experts Propose ‘Innovative’ Solutions as Impasse Persists
The long‑standing dispute over toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, with shipping firms and governments still lacking a unified fee framework. Chinese analysts have floated two novel ideas: tying toll rates directly to global oil prices and...
Trump and Netanyahu Cede Hormuz, Making Iran Toll Road
Trump and Netanyahu have handed Iran the strategic high ground –– the control of the Strait of Hormuz. As I told @SeanPmathews: “The Strait of Hormuz was a freeway. Now it’s an Iranian toll road.” https://t.co/dGLBi5V6KE
10‑Year Yield Above 4.4% Proves Unmanageable
Well that is a problem given that in the last couple weeks, the MOVE Volatility Index and US policymakers’ actions (TACO’d every single time 10y hit 4.4%) empirically showed that the US & world cannot handle >4.4% on the 10y. #YouDownWithYCCYeahYouKnowMe
From Tariffs to Iran War, Geopolitics Are Upending Packaging Supply Chains
A year after the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed a 10% duty on most imports, packaging costs have surged, with some items jumping from $0.80 to $3 each. The Trump administration’s partial rollback on steel, aluminum and copper has left high...
Iranian Traders Swap Gold for Bonds Amid War
This is a really fantastic overview of what's been going on in Iranian financial markets over the last year. Turns out, since the start of this war, Iranian retail traders have been rotating out of precious metals and into fixed income...
Inflation Data Finally Shows Real Prices, Says MrMBrown
@MrMBrown channeling his inner nerd on ONS inflation data, which should now reflect real prices 😂https://t.co/Wm7iIl1SE8
US Market Depth Keeps Dollar King Despite Global Turmoil
I spoke to @SeanPmathews about KING DOLLAR: "Sanctions, wars, and tariffs make it easier for the dollar's challengers. But the US is the biggest, most liquid capital market in the world, bigger than all the others put together. That’s why king...
Deficit Shrinkage Far Smaller Than
In the real world, the deficit fell by $56 billion last year, less than one-tenth of what Kevin claims, but he did get the direction right this time, unlike his claims about inflation falling
Brazil's High Inflation Tied to Excessive Money Growth
Brazil's inflation is 3.8%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/TFkrFL2exI
February Real Income Turns Negative, Signaling Economic Strain
Important point from Ben -- Americans' income was already **negative** in February once you adjust for inflation. People were having to dip into savings or turn to credit cards to fund their spending, even before gas prices jumped to $4. This is...
IMF Highlights Iran War Impact, Offers No New Action
.@KGeorgieva opening speech @IMFNews spring meetings entirely about impact of Iran war. Notable shift as IMF and @WorldBankGroup have been reticent so far. But unlike previous crises, IMF is not proposing new action, other than standing ready to help.