Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
India’s Worrying Plans for Dams on Transboundary Rivers Shared with Bangladesh
India’s northeastern state of Meghalaya is accelerating a suite of hydropower projects on the Myntdu and Kynshi rivers, including the 210 MW Myntdu‑Leshka Stage II and several upstream schemes. The detailed project reports are finished and the state government is seeking central financing, reviving projects that were stalled after Bangladeshi objections. Experts warn that cascading run‑of‑river dams could disrupt natural flow, trap sediment and heighten landslide and flood risk downstream. Bangladesh, which relies on these transboundary rivers, fears reduced water availability, loss of migratory fish and increased disaster vulnerability.
Chhangani Cited in FT Article on the Banks and Financial Institutions Willing to Launder Dollar Payments for Iran
The Financial Times reported that a network of banks and financial institutions is facilitating dollar‑denominated payments for Iran, effectively laundering sanctions‑evading funds. Atlantic Council senior fellow Alisha Chhangani is quoted highlighting how correspondent‑bank relationships and opaque shell entities enable the...
Spain Condemns Israel Strikes, Deepening Rift with the US
Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares publicly condemned Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon and the broader war on Iran, labeling them an assault on humanist civilization. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the conflict reckless, illegal and urged the EU to scrap...
EU Sanctions Back on Agenda Amid Israel’s ‘Carnage’ in Lebanon
EU officials warned that sanctions against Israel are back on the table after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed roughly 200 people. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will convene emergency talks with her 26 commissioners, and the EU could suspend the EU‑Israel...
The Price of Strategic Autonomy: India and the Iran Conflict
India’s doctrine of strategic autonomy—balancing ties with Israel and Iran—faces a test as the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict escalates. New Delhi has offered vague calls for de‑escalation while refraining from condemning recent Israeli airstrikes, prompting doubts about its reliability. The ambiguity threatens...
Ceasefire Offers Little Relief to Indian Plastic Makers
Indian plastic converters are facing sharply higher feedstock costs as the US‑Iran ceasefire fails to ease supply constraints. Polypropylene raffia prices have jumped 49% to $1,300‑$1,400 per ton and low‑density polyethylene is up 54% to $1,600‑$1,700 per ton since late...
Head of IMF Says Iran War Will Permanently Scar Global Economy Even if Peace Is Reached
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the Iran war will leave a permanent scar on the global economy, even if a durable peace is achieved. The conflict forced the IMF to downgrade its 2026 global growth outlook...
Fuel Shortages, Hunger, Inflation Spiral: IMF Fears ‘Scarring’ Harm From Iran War
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict will trigger widespread fuel shortages, heightened hunger and an inflation spiral, leaving lasting scarring effects on the global economy. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected...
How War in the Middle East Paralysed an Asian Food Giant
The war in the Middle East has sharply curtailed oil and fertilizer shipments, driving diesel prices in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta to double and depleting fertilizer stocks to a fraction of normal levels. Rice mills have halted operations and barges sit...
Trump Calls for 50% Tariff on Goods From Nations Arming Iran
President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social an immediate 50% tariff on goods from any nation supplying military weapons to Iran. The White House has not released formal documentation, leaving the legal authority unclear after the Supreme Court recently blocked...
The Decline and Fall of the Dollar Empire
Barry Eichengreen argues that the United States is losing its status as the world’s primary currency issuer, likening today’s dollar decline to the fall of Rome’s denarius. He points to chronic economic stagnation, a debt load surpassing $31 trillion, and costly...
IMF Warns of Deepening Global Food Crisis as Fertilizer Prices Surge
The International Monetary Fund warned that soaring fertilizer prices are set to deepen the global food crisis, potentially pushing the number of people facing hunger above 360 million. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted that transport disruptions and higher input costs are...
Wall St Opens Muted over Fragile Mideast Truce
Wall Street opened muted on Thursday as the Dow Jones slipped 69.3 points, or 0.14%, to 47,840.63. The S&P 500 was essentially flat, down 0.01% to 6,783.69, while the Nasdaq nudged higher 0.05% to 22,646.35. The moves came amid growing...
Wall Street Edges Higher on Optimism over Middle East Truce’s Stability After Israel Agrees for Talks with Lebanon
Wall Street rallied Thursday as investors grew optimistic that Israel’s decision to open direct talks with Lebanon could cement a fragile cease‑fire in the Middle East. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Dow 0.7% and the Nasdaq 0.7% by early...
Egypt’s Foreign Minister: One Cannot Secure Waterways ‘While Ignoring the Political Order of the States’ Along the Shore
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty warned that Red Sea security cannot be ensured without political stability in the Horn of Africa, linking maritime chokepoints to Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues. He cautioned that unilateral recognition of Somaliland threatens African sovereignty norms...
This Isn’t a 1970s Oil Shock
The Iran war has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a critical bottleneck for both crude oil and liquefied natural gas, pushing oil prices up about 40% in six weeks and affecting roughly 20% of global oil consumption and 25%...
OECD Tells Reeves to Reform ‘Inefficient’ UK Tax System
The OECD has urged Chancellor Rachel Reeves to launch a comprehensive review of the United Kingdom’s tax system, calling it inefficient and growth‑dragging. The report recommends broadening the VAT base, updating council‑tax valuations from 1991, and eliminating regressive reliefs on...
Iran War Doubles Russia's Main Oil Revenue to $9 Billion in April
Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil is set to double in April, reaching roughly $9 billion, after the Iran‑related crisis drove Brent futures above $100 per barrel. The surge stems from the Strait of Hormuz closure following US and Israeli airstrikes,...
Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2026 Is Projected to Rise 3.4% Year-Over-Year
FactSet’s median forecast shows the consumer price index rising 3.4% year‑over‑year in March 2026, the strongest gain since April 2024 and above the 12‑month average of 2.6%. The core CPI is expected to increase 2.7% YoY, while February’s CPI posted...
The Chokepoints Are Shifting and Hormuz Is the Last Line
The global maritime trade network is undergoing a structural reset, pushing the Strait of Hormuz to the forefront as the most critical and fragile chokepoint. Earlier bottlenecks such as the Suez Canal and Panama Canal have seen capacity upgrades and...
Oil Prices Hit $100 With Hormuz Closed Despite Ceasefire, But S&P 500 Diverges
U.S. crude prices surged past $100 a barrel as Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed, demanding Israel halt attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The closure reignited supply‑risk premiums, pushing the near‑term WTI contract up 5.8% after briefly topping $102....
Tariff Pause Triggers
On This Day in History, April 9, 2025: Trump dropped a bombshell Truth Social post announcing a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs (dropping them back to 10%), while hiking China’s rate to 125%. Markets went nuts: • Dow surges 2,963 points...
Brazilian Election Tie Sparks U.S. Push on Critical Mineral Supply Chains
A new IDEIA poll puts Brazil's incumbent Lula at 45.5% and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro at 45.8%, a statistical tie that has amplified U.S. worries about securing Brazil's critical mineral output. Bolsonaro’s appeal to the United States and his framing of...
German Industrial Production Falls Unexpectedly, Signaling Eurozone Manufacturing Slowdown
Germany's industrial production unexpectedly declined in February, according to Destatis data, raising alarms about a slowdown in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. The drop comes as German exports rebounded 3.6% month‑on‑month, highlighting a puzzling divergence between output and demand.
A 1,300% Rally Turns a Tiny Shipping ETF Into an Iran War Gauge
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) has exploded 1,300% over the past year, rising from about $10 to nearly $150 per share, making it 2026’s top‑performing US‑listed ETF. The fund’s performance is tightly tied to VLCC freight rates, especially the cost...
Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure Warm Again. GDI Rescues Q4 Growth
The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month‑over‑month in February, an unrounded 0.367% increase that marks a third consecutive warm reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists had expected another elevated figure, underscoring persistent price...
Liberia’s Central Bank to Print New Banknotes to Ease Cash Shortage
The Central Bank of Liberia announced a new banknote‑printing program to replace mutilated notes and match expanding transactional demand. Deputy Director P. Mah Kruah said the move is coordinated with the IMF and will be sized to market needs, while officials...
Iran‑U.S. Ceasefire Sends Oil 16% Lower, Spurs Stock Rally, Dollar Hits 4‑Week Low
President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week ceasefire with Iran sent U.S. crude down 16.4% to $94.41 a barrel, sparked a 2.5% jump in the S&P 500, and drove the dollar to its lowest level in four weeks. Traders now...
U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Triggers Global Bond Rally, 10‑Year Yields Drop 8 Bps
The announcement of a two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran sent U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields down 8 basis points to 4.23% and sparked a broad rally in sovereign bonds worldwide. The move erased a sizable risk premium on...
Iran Proposes Bitcoin Toll for Strait of Hormuz Transits, Targeting $1‑Per‑Barrel Fees
Iran announced it will require oil tankers to pay transit fees in Bitcoin, roughly $1 per barrel, for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The move ties a strategic maritime chokepoint to cryptocurrency, prompting concerns from shipping firms, regulators and...
India’s Long Work Year
India’s workers logged an average of 2,605 hours in 2019, the highest among the countries covered by the FRED database. Bangladesh and Pakistan followed with more than 2,400 hours, while the United States recorded under 1,800 hours. The metric—average annual...
Fed's Inflation Woes Predate Iran War, Stalled at 2%
NEW: Long before the Iran war began, the Fed had an inflation problem, as Feb's PCE data confirms today. Progress on reaching the 2% target had essentially stalled out, while a closely-watched metric tracking ex-housing services inflation was stuck well...
Mexico's Climate‑scientist President Backs Controversial Shale Gas
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist by training, makes a policy U-turn, now backing the development of shale gas deposits in her country (which means fracking, even if she avoided using that word — a taboo in Mexico —...
The Market Brief
The Market Brief notes that the initial optimism from a two‑week cease‑fire is fading as markets give back Wednesday’s gains. Systematic macro hedge funds (CTAs) were positioned deep short the S&P 500 and max long WTI crude before the April 7 moves,...
Iran's Hormuz Grip Threatens Gulf Oil Flow
Gulf states denounce Iranian control of Hormuz What are they going to do about it? Helima Croft nails it: "Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access routes" Any...
Venezuela Wastes $330M Buying Bolívars; Adopt Dollar Now
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
Commerce Department Report Shows 3% Core Inflation in February
The Commerce Department reported that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3% year‑over‑year in February, a slight dip from January’s pace. Headline inflation increased 2.8%, both figures matching Dow Jones consensus. The Federal Reserve’s March minutes signaled that a...
PCE Inflation Stays at 2.8%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index held steady in February at 2.8%/yr. This is ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr and the February forecast of 2.6%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE....
Ex‑BoE Economist
Imagine writing and publishing an article on trade (by ex BoE chief economist) in Britain’s premier financial newspaper that doesn’t refer at all to China. Well here it is
Goldman: Oil Could Remain at Crisis Prices for Rest of Year
Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could stay above $100 a barrel for the remainder of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month. The strategic waterway, which carries roughly one‑fifth of global seaborne oil, has been...
Treasury Bill Rollovers & Debt Swaps Overhyped on FinTwit
Two topics that get 100x more airtime than they deserve on fintwit: 1) Trillions in Tbills constantly maturing and getting bought again by the same balance sheets that hold them now. 2) The Treasury issuing some on-the-run debt to buy back some...
Ceasefire Won’t Halt Rising Oil Prices
The Iran-US conflict is in ceasefire. However, this doesn't mean that prices won't stop going up for oil. @JoshYoung explained this perfectly. Listen to the podcast here: Spotify: https://t.co/dXhhaEqjYx Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/HqM3ZP2DF4
ECB Will Act If Needed to Meet Inflation Target
Sleijpen says the ECB will act if needed to keep inflation at target https://t.co/i7fN2hd9FJ via @patrickreports https://t.co/MYYOhsOcMW
Conflict Outcomes Remain Uncertain, Like Schr
Given "Schroedinger's ceasefire" and "Schroedinger's Hormuz re-opening", thought this was a potentially instructive chart from @johnauthers, via @Bloomberg. #HistoryRhymes https://t.co/86srIVeKMI
PCE Confirms 3% Inflation Amid Recent Shock Waves
Today's PCE report showed once again this is a 3% inflation 🌎. On Facts vs Feelings this week, we discussed the 5 big inflation shocks the past few years. https://t.co/dbovthdUvY
130 Years of Rising Wages, Shorter
The story of the last 130 years: -Higher real wages. -Fewer hours worked. -Transition from farms to services Progress happens incrementally, so we barely feel it. But the long-term trend is undeniably up. https://t.co/IHCs0Z7xXH
Euro's Debt Charade Leaves Spain, Italy, France Vulnerable
The Euro got hijacked by high-debt countries to foster the illusion they're solvent. But yield caps don't confer fiscal space, which is why - when a shock like Ukraine hits - Spain (ES), Italy (IT) and France (FR) can't help....
Core PCE Climbs, Fed Should Tighten Despite Energy Shock
In February, PCE less food and energy up .4% for the second straight month--12-month change remained 3.0%. Before Mideast energy shock Fed should have a tightening bias https://t.co/CuTWT2XgUi
OECD Calls for UK Tax Overhaul to Spur Growth
OECD urges Reeves to overhaul the UK tax system to boost growth https://t.co/jXhKmLwgu9 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/EG8VX6kx0A
Markets Resilient Despite War, Inflation, and Midterms
Who is the 🦨at the party? In our latest Facts vs Feelings, @sonusvarghese and I discussed: * The war and inflation * The labor market isn't so bad * Midterm years * And how we are positioning our portfolios https://t.co/SCOb8I9PVL