Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Peace or Illusion? U.S.–Iran Ceasefire Reopens Tourism, Skies, and Shipping—But for How Long?
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing immediate oil‑price pressures. Gulf shipping firms are resuming transit but face higher insurance costs, while airlines are launching a phased return to service amid lingering jet‑fuel shortages. Tourism sentiment improves, yet leisure travel remains cautious as regional security uncertainties persist. The pause is fragile, and its durability depends on broader diplomatic progress across the Middle East.
‘Historic’ NZ–India FTA to Scrap 95% of Tariffs on Wood Exports
New Zealand and India will sign a Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement on April 24, eliminating tariffs on 95% of New Zealand wood products, including timber, lumber, pulp and paperboard. The deal grants immediate duty‑free access for most wood exports and phases out...
Global Debt Soars Past $348T, Exceeds Triple GDP
Global debt now stands at $348 TRILLION. That’s more than 3 TIMES GLOBAL GDP. G7 Debt in G7 countries has surged from ~20% of GDP post WW2 to OVER 100% of GDP today. Global economies have never faced a shock with this...
U.S. and Iran Both Claim Victory in New Ceasefire
The episode breaks down the newly announced two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, highlighting the ambiguous terms each side claims as a victory, including Iran’s demand for influence over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. claim of...
Aussies Shares Gain Almost $80 Billion After Ceasefire Announcement
Global equity markets rallied after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a cease‑fire with Iran, adding roughly $80 billion in market value. The Australian ASX 200 jumped sharply, reflecting a swift shift in investor sentiment. Crude oil prices slipped from $110 to $94...
PBOC Poised to Set Yuan Midpoint at 6.8773 per Dollar as FX Reserves Fall 2.5% to $33.4 Trillion
The People’s Bank of China is likely to set the yuan’s midpoint at 6.8773 per dollar, a level that suggests a modest tightening of policy. At the same time, official data show China’s foreign‑exchange reserves fell 2.5% in March to...
US‑Iran Cease‑Fire Triggers 16% Brent Drop and Global Market Surge
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire, sending Brent crude tumbling 16% to about $93 per barrel. The relief in oil markets lifted Asian equity indices and U.S. futures, marking the day’s biggest geopolitical shock for the global...
Jamaica’s Fuel Tax Faces Backlash as Prices Jump $21‑$22.50 per Gallon
Mayberry Group Executive Chairman Christopher Berry called on the Jamaican government to slash the Special Consumption Tax on fuel after Petrojam raised gasoline prices by $21‑$22.50 over five weeks, making tax 31% of the pump price. The move comes amid...
U.S. and Iran Seal Two‑Week Cease‑Fire, Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Relieve Oil Shock
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire on April 7, ending active combat and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for over 20% of world oil. The deal includes Iran’s ten‑point peace plan, a $2 million per‑vessel transit fee...
Delta Hikes Bag Fees as Jet Fuel Spikes to $209 per Barrel
Delta Air Lines announced a $10 increase for the first and second checked bag and a $50 hike for a third bag on domestic and short‑haul routes. The move comes as jet fuel prices have surged to about $209 per...
Ottawa’s Critical Minerals Push Will only Be as Successful as the Infrastructure Behind It
Canada’s government aims to boost its critical mineral output to as much as 14% of global supply by 2040, up from the current 2% share. To achieve this, Ottawa has launched the First and Last Mile Fund, committing up to...
How the Iran War Is Reordering the World, Second and Third-Order Effects
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has quickly moved beyond battlefield strikes to generate sweeping second- and third-order effects. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut roughly 20% of global oil flow, sending Brent crude above $120 and triggering stagflationary...
LIVE with Jessica Tarlov & Scott Galloway: Iran Ceasefire
Jessica Tarlov and Scott Galloway hosted a live webcast titled “Iran Ceasefire,” focusing on President Trump’s recent, albeit temporary, decision to step back from direct confrontation with Tehran. The conversation, streamed exclusively for Prof G+ members, examined how the ceasefire...
Ceasefire Announced: Oil Below $100, US Market Futures up Sharply
A surprise two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran caused oil prices to plunge below $100 per barrel, with Brent falling about 13% and U.S. benchmarks mirroring the drop. The sharp decline sparked a risk‑on rally, lifting S&P 500 and...
Thinking About Stagflation (Again)
The cease‑fire announcement in the Straits of Hormuz sparked a brief equity rally but left markets focused on energy‑related inflation risks. Oil futures have entered a steep backwardation, with 12‑month contracts priced over $30 below near‑term levels, while bond markets...
Action Needed to Address Africa's Structural Challenges, Says AfDB
The African Development Bank’s new Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook reports that Africa grew 4.2% in 2025, beating the global average but still falling short of the 7% growth needed for structural transformation. Thirty‑two of 54 economies posted stronger growth, with...
Bank of England: Interest Rate Hike Predictions Cool as Trader Sentiment Resets
Traders have sharply revised expectations for Bank of England policy, now pricing in only a single 25‑basis‑point rate hike after a cease‑fire between the US, Israel and Iran eased Middle‑East tensions. The two‑year gilt yield fell to 4.1%, down from...
Webinar: Iran Ceasefire – What Next for Markets and the Economy?
A two‑week ceasefire between the United States and Iran sparked a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in risk assets, as traders anticipate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The pause in hostilities is expected to ease...
FX Alert: Back From The Brink
A two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East has pulled oil prices and related markets off the brink of extreme stress. Brent crude slid roughly 16%, prompting a mechanical unwind of the war‑driven risk premium, while equities steadied and the yield...
WiseTech CEO Zubin Appoo: Why Logistics Must Get Ahead of Major Events and Risk
WiseTech CEO Zubin Appoo warned that the March shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the Middle East war, exposed how quickly supply chains can be crippled by geopolitical events. He noted that vessel transits collapsed from over a...
A Robust Market Reaction to a Quite Fragile "Cease-Fire" In Iran.
The episode analyzes the market fallout from a fragile two‑week cease‑fire between Iran and Israel, focusing on oil logistics, price volatility, and speculative positioning. Hosts note that despite ongoing missile launches, the cease‑fire has sparked a sharp drop in Brent...
Safe Evacuation of Ships, Seafarers From the Gulf a Priority
The International Maritime Organization and the International Chamber of Shipping welcomed a 14‑day U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, aiming to evacuate roughly 1,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers trapped in the Gulf after the Strait of Hormuz was closed in late February. IMO Secretary‑General...
Ray Dalio: Trump-Xi Meeting to Focus on Trade, Capital Flows
Hedge‑fund founder Ray Dalio said the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit in Beijing on May 14‑15 will prioritize trade and capital‑flow issues. He expressed optimism that the leaders will show empathy, which could calm bilateral tensions and reassure investors. Dalio noted the S&P 500...
Europe’s Electric Vehicle Conundrum
The episode examines Europe’s dual transition: decarbonising transport through rapid EV adoption and maintaining a competitive automotive industry amid Chinese overcapacity and shifting US subsidies. Guests explain how the EU’s reliance on Chinese batteries and EVs threatens supply‑chain resilience, while...
How Korea Is Boosting Domestic Spending Through a Nationwide Shopping Event
South Korea’s Ministry of SMEs and Startups launched the Donghaeng Festival, a 30‑day nationwide shopping event that synchronises tourism, cultural programs and retail discounts. In April 2026 the festival mobilised more than 33,000 SMEs across roughly 200 distribution channels, linking...
Mærsk in the Crosshairs: Hutchison Opens a New Legal Front over Panama
CK Hutchison’s Panama Ports Company has launched arbitration proceedings directly against APM Terminals, the terminal arm of Danish carrier Maersk, over the recent Panama Canal port transition. The claim now exceeds $2 billion, expanding beyond the original dispute with the Panamanian...
German Factory Orders Flat, Recovery Still Elusive
Good Morning from Germany, where industry was showing little sign of recovery even before the war. Factory orders rose just 0.9% in Feb MoM, missing expectations. Excl volatile large orders, demand was up a stronger 3.5%. Still, a downward revision...
Bond Yields Drop, Trend Signals Remain Bullish
UK and European Bond Yields straight down alongside Oil, but their TREND Signals are still up
Macro Hedge Funds Worst Hit in March Amid Middle East Turmoil
Macro hedge funds recorded their steepest March decline since the pandemic, slipping roughly 5.5% as the Israel‑Iran escalation drove oil to $100 per barrel and spooked equity markets. The turmoil forced a rapid unwind of short positions in U.S. stocks,...
China Upskills, Vietnam Low‑Costs, Mexico Nearshoring Falters
Global trade is rewiring. China is moving into HIGH-VALUE, ADVANCED manufacturing. Vietnam is rising as a LOW-COST HUB. Meanwhile, Mexico’s nearshoring hype has FAILED to deliver. https://t.co/moYJrnHSfE
German 10y Yields Drop 15bps on Iran Ceasefire
German 10y (nominal) yields plunge 15bps (w/10y inflation expectations down 10bps) on Iran ceasefire. https://t.co/TN4TRdNdX1
France Leads 15-Country Effort to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
France is heading a coalition of about fifteen countries to restart commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after a U.S.-Iran cease‑fire was announced. The strait moves roughly one‑fifth of global oil, about five million barrels daily, making its reopening...
Iranian Regime Recognizes Its Power Over Global Economy
Now imagine how clearly the Iranian Islamist regime has realized just how firmly and with impunity it can hold the entire global economy by the throat and force its own terms.
Iran Conflict: Is Ceasefire Too Little, Too Late for Global Food?
The United States and Iran have agreed to a two‑week cease‑fire that temporarily reopens the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military coordination. The strait carries about 30 % of global fertilizer shipments, making its partial reopening critical for agricultural input supplies....
Ontario’s Prosperity Gap Widens as US Neighbours Pull Further Ahead, Report Reveals
A new Fraser Institute report shows Ontario’s GDP per capita lagged far behind its Great Lakes neighbours in 2024, registering roughly $55,000 USD per person – the second‑lowest among the eight U.S. states and Quebec examined. New York topped the region...
Asia Pivots to Russian Oil Amid Middle East Turmoil
Asia’s energy reality is shifting FAST. As the Middle East’s supply of oil is disrupted by the US-Israeli war on Iran, countries are turning to Russian oil. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/akGGPsbivA
Japan's Nikkei Stock Index Ends up over 5% on U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Deal
Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 5.39% on Wednesday, posting its third‑largest point gain in history after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire. The rally was driven by easing Middle East tensions, a stronger yen around ¥158 per dollar,...
Does the Iran Ceasefire Mean the Fuel Crisis Is Over? Not Even Close
A temporary cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict has opened the Strait of Hormuz, but the damage to Gulf oil infrastructure means the global fuel crunch will linger for months. The war removed roughly 11 million barrels per day from the market,...
Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Soar After U.S., Iran Walk Back From the Brink
President Trump announced a conditional cease‑fire with Iran, contingent on the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The news triggered a sharp plunge in Brent crude and diesel futures, while U.S. stock futures, led by the Dow, surged. Treasury...
The Morning Briefing: Middle East Tensions Trigger £1.4bn Equity Fund Outflows; How Does HALO Hold up in a Volatile Market?
Middle East tensions sparked a sharp spike in equity fund outflows, with investors pulling £1.44 bn ($1.8 bn) in March – the worst month since November 2025 and the seventh‑worst on record. The sell‑off was broad‑based, but UK equity funds felt the brunt,...
India Set to Get First Iranian Crude Oil Cargo in 7 Years
India will receive its first Iranian crude cargo in seven years after the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil. The shipment, aboard the Curacao‑flagged VLCC Jaya, was bought by state‑run Indian Oil Corp. and is bound for India's...
DTI Ramps up $110-B Semiconductor Export Plan
The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry unveiled a five‑year roadmap to lift semiconductor and electronics exports to $110 billion by 2030, more than twice today’s level. The plan targets $70 billion in semiconductor sales and $40 billion in broader electronics shipments, backed...
Jobless Rate in the Philippines Eased to 5.1% in February
Philippine unemployment slipped to 5.1% in February 2026, down from a pandemic‑era peak of 5.8% in January. The decline represents roughly 300,000 fewer jobless, bringing the total to about 2.66 million. Labor force participation rose to 63.8% (52.09 million) and the employment‑to‑population...
PSEi Climbs Past 6,000 in Early Trade on US-Iran Truce Boost
Philippine stocks surged on Wednesday as the PSEi jumped 1.95% to 6,074.06 points, breaking the 6,000 mark. The rally was sparked by a two‑week US‑Iran truce announced by President Donald Trump, which eased fears of a broader Middle East conflict....
Trump Admin Rejects Ford Bid for Aluminum Tariff Relief
The Trump administration rejected Ford's request for temporary relief from the 50% aluminum import tariff after fires crippled Novelis' Oswego plant, forcing automakers to source overseas. Ford has already absorbed $2 billion in costs and expects an additional $1 billion in tariff...
UK House Prices Fall as Iran War Uncertainty Dampens Demand
Halifax reported the average UK house price fell 0.5% in March to £299,677 (approximately $383,000). The decline follows a 0.3% rise in February and reflects dampened demand as mortgage rates climb amid uncertainty from the Iran‑Israel conflict. Higher energy costs...
RBI Ups Crude Oil, Exchange Rate Baseline Assumptions for FY27
The Reserve Bank of India raised its FY27 baseline crude‑oil price to $85 per barrel, up from $70 in the second half of FY26, and lifted its rupee projection to 94 per dollar, up from 88. The revision follows a...
China's LNG Demand Stalls, Shifts to Domestic and Pipeline Sources
Don't expect China's LNG demand to bounce back from the Middle East turmoil 🇨🇳🚢 China gets a quarter of its LNG from the world's biggest export plant in Qatar.. which remains offline. To makeup for the shortfall, China is expected to...
LNG Carriers: The Shipbuilding Boom Meets a Geopolitical Storm
LNG carriers have seen spot freight rates explode from roughly $42,000 to $300,000 per day after Iran‑linked strikes shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting about 22% of global LNG exports. The surge is a disruption‑driven signal, not a structural shift,...
Turkey's Inflation Eases, but Loose Policy Fuels Surge
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x