Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Investors Still Have Questions About the Cease-Fire
Investors cheered a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran, prompting a sharp rally in global stock markets and a pull‑back in oil prices. Iran’s foreign minister announced safe passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing the blockade that has constrained about 20 percent of worldwide oil and gas flows. While the pause offers immediate market relief, analysts warn that lasting stability remains uncertain given the underlying geopolitical tensions. The article also references a separate investigation linking cryptography expert Adam Back to the identity of Bitcoin’s creator.
Catalyst for Change: Africa Feels the Brunt of Middle East Conflict, but It Could Also Accelerate Structural Change
A joint report by the AfDB, AUC, UNDP and UNECA warns that the Middle East war‑driven surge in oil and fertiliser prices is straining African economies. Currency depreciation in 29 nations has raised debt‑service costs and made essential imports more...
Iran Ceasefire, Treasury Gaps Shift Rate Outlook
A ceasefire in Iran was announced, prompting immediate market reactions. Treasury yields opened higher, preserving bullish gaps and compressing the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut outlook from an 18‑month to a 15‑month horizon. Technical analysis identifies narrow 3‑5‑basis‑point target ranges for the...
What Adjusted Steel, Aluminum and Copper Tariffs Mean for Construction
The Trump administration has raised Section 232 tariffs to as high as 50% on pure steel, aluminum and copper products, with a 25% levy on derivative goods substantially made of those metals. Contractors say the impact will vary: some materials may...
Russia Oil Export Revenues Hit Highest Since Early Ukraine War as Prices Surge, Despite Ukrainian Port Attacks
Russian crude export revenues surged to about $2.02 billion per week, the highest level since June 2022, as global oil prices hit multi‑year highs. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in Urals prices above $116 a barrel and a narrowing...
Why Fuel and Food Prices Could Still Be Affected for Months
A tentative two‑week ceasefire in Iran has eased geopolitical tension, causing crude oil prices to tumble, yet they remain above pre‑war levels. Analysts warn that damaged Gulf production facilities and blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will keep fuel...
World Bank Cuts Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Outlook Due to Iran War
The World Bank lowered its 2026 growth projection for sub‑Saharan Africa to 4.1%, unchanged from 2025 but down from the 4.4% forecast made in October. The downgrade reflects the fallout from the Iran‑Israel war, which has pushed up fuel and...
The Fight Over ‘Critical Minerals,’ Explained
Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths are essential for electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines, and demand is projected to double by 2030. The United States, fearing China’s dominance in refining, launched Project Vault,...
Iran Steel Supply Unlikely to Benefit From Ceasefire
Despite a newly announced two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire, Iran’s steel production is unlikely to rebound quickly. Air strikes in late March severely damaged Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel, forcing both plants—combined capacity about 14 million tonnes per year—to halt output for months....
Steel Tariffs Risk Supply Shortages, SAISC Warns
The Southern African Institute of Steel Construction (SAISC) warns that newly imposed anti‑dumping tariffs on selected steel imports are already prompting merchants to cancel or delay orders. While the tariffs aim to protect domestic producers, SAISC says the sudden rise...
Mortgage Applications Fall, but Iran Ceasefire Could Bring Lower Rates
Mortgage applications slipped 0.8% last week as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a modest decline in activity. The 30‑year fixed rate eased to 6.51% from 6.57%, reflecting a near‑10‑basis‑point drop in the 10‑year Treasury after a cease‑fire in the Middle...
The Truth About the War No One Is Saying- GB News Nails It
{"summary":"GB News host Alex Armstrong argues that the current geopolitical conflict is less about Iran and more about reshaping the global order in America’s favor, citing U.S. control over oil flows to China and Europe’s new dependence on American energy....
March 2026 CPI Preview: What to Expect
The Center for Economic and Policy Research expects the March 2026 Consumer Price Index to spike sharply, driven primarily by a surge in gasoline prices. Food costs and higher import prices are also slated to lift the headline rate, while...
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Sends Wall Street Soaring, with Crude Oil Prices Down 16%
Wall Street rallied sharply after the United States and Iran announced a two‑week ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. crude prices down about 16 percent. S&P 500 futures jumped 2.7%, Dow futures 2.6% and Nasdaq futures 3.4%...
Iran’s Shattered Economy Means Any Success in War May Be Fleeting
Iran’s brief strategic victory in the US‑Israel truce is shadowed by a shattered economy after weeks of strikes. Damage to factories, power plants, railways and key petrochemical sites, combined with soaring inflation and a 40% price jump, has pushed millions...
Xi Jinping Backs Services Sector to Power China’s Next Growth Phase
President Xi Jinping announced a renewed emphasis on China’s services sector, urging a demand‑driven, technology‑focused growth model. The strategy aims to rebalance the economy away from export‑led manufacturing toward higher‑value services such as finance, health, and digital platforms. Officials highlighted...
US–Iran Ceasefire: What It Means for Trump, Tehran, Israel and US Allies. Early Analysis From Chatham House Experts
On April 7, the United States, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, halting attacks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The truce is hailed as a short‑term victory but leaves unresolved issues such as Iran’s nuclear...
Centre Maintains Multi-Ministry Response to Support Exporters Amid Hormuz Disruptions
India’s Department of Commerce and DGFT have launched a coordinated multi‑ministry response to export disruptions caused by tensions in the Hormuz Strait. Measures include the CBIC’s “Back to Town” procedure, waivers on storage and reefer charges at JNPT, and extended...
Book 33: Reading the Dardanelles Disaster in the Age of Hormuz (100 Great Books)
Dan van der Vat’s *The Dardanelles Disaster* revisits the World War I attempt to force the Turkish strait open, illustrating how geography can outwit even the most powerful militaries. The book, written by a veteran journalist‑historian, shows the catastrophic gap...
Homebuyer Mortgage Demand Drops Annually for the First Time in over a Year, as War Fuels Uncertainty
Mortgage demand slipped for the first time in over a year as applications to purchase a home fell 7% year‑over‑year and refinance requests dropped 4% YoY. The average 30‑year fixed‑rate contract slipped to 6.51% from 6.57%, but remains above the...
Iran Tries to Impose Toll on Hormuz Shipping
🚨Iran demands fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire🚨 This 'agreement' will confirm Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz 1️⃣Iran has ZERO authority to monitor what sails into or out of the Persian Gulf 2️⃣The requirement to sail through Iranian waters...
Asian Markets Jump, Oil Plunges on News of Iran-US Ceasefire
The United States and Iran agreed to a temporary cease‑fire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered a sharp market reversal on Wednesday. Oil benchmarks tumbled about 15% to just under $100 a barrel, while Asian equities surged—Nikkei up 5.4%...
Vietnam’s To Lam Consolidates Power as President, Pushing $200 Bn Infrastructure Drive
Vietnam’s National Assembly unanimously elected Communist Party General Secretary To Lam as president, giving him the same authority once held by Xi Jinping in China. Lam will steer a $200 bn construction spree that includes a new stadium, high‑speed rail and an $8.1 bn...
Wars Impose Deep and Prolonged Economic Costs on Countries, IMF Research Finds
The IMF’s new research shows wars cause deep, lasting economic damage, shrinking output by roughly 7% over five years. The study finds these losses linger for more than a decade, outpacing impacts from financial crises or natural disasters. Simultaneously, global...
IMF and World Bank Warn Middle East War to Spike Inflation and Slow 2026 Growth
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank issued coordinated alerts that the war in the Middle East will tighten oil supplies, lift worldwide inflation and dampen global economic expansion in 2026, raising recession risks.
The Pentagon Attempts to Crack China's Rare Earths Monopoly
The Pentagon is launching a coordinated effort to reduce U.S. reliance on China’s near‑monopoly over rare earth element (REE) refining. By channeling funding into domestic mining projects like California’s Mountain Pass and partnering with private firms, the defense department aims...
Bitcoin and Risk Assets Ripped Higher After the Iran Ceasefire Shock
Bitcoin surged above $72,000 following a two‑week U.S.–Iran ceasefire, sparking a broad risk‑on rally across global markets. Oil prices plunged under $100 a barrel, while stock futures and other risk assets rallied sharply. The move reversed weeks of crypto being...
CII Proposes 20-Point Agenda to Support Indian Firms Amid Iran War Disruptions
India's Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has presented a 20‑point policy agenda to the government and the Reserve Bank of India to mitigate the fallout from the Iran‑West Asia war. The plan calls for coordinated fiscal, financial and trade actions,...
NEWS: Trump Declares Victory in Iran Ceasefire But the Deal Reveals a Stunning Reality
After 39 days of conflict, a two‑week cease‑fire between the United States and Iran was announced, with President Trump touting a victory. The agreement, largely based on a 10‑point Iranian proposal, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, hints at lifting long‑standing...
Ray Dalio Says US-China Ties Are Critical as World Enters Dangerous New Era
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the United States‑China relationship is the single most critical factor for global stability as the world enters a "dangerous new era." He highlighted the escalating war on Iran and its ripple effects on the...
The New Trump Trades: How Investors Are Navigating Iran Shocks
Investors are crafting a new “Trump trade” playbook after Donald Trump’s cease‑fire pledge in the Iran war, focusing on higher‑for‑longer oil prices, currency shifts, and bond market mispricings. Oil futures trade around $79, with analysts expecting a floor near $85...
Oil Tumbles Below $100 After Trump Announces Two-Week Ceasefire
Oil fell below $100 a barrel after President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, promising a safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled at $91.80 and WTI at $92.62, while European diesel dropped 20.8 percent to $1,210.50...
Shipping Far From Normalcy After Hormuz Truce
The conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump’s cease‑fire announcement has eased market panic, but shipping remains far from normal. Roughly 800 vessels with more than 20,000 crew members are still stranded in the Persian Gulf....
Faisal Islam: Iran War Pause Is Welcome but the Economic Scars Will Last
The cease‑fire in the Iran‑Israel conflict has eased the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a 15% drop in oil and gas prices and a rally in equity markets. Over the past six weeks, roughly 800 vessels were stranded,...
Can Philippines Become Critical Minerals Powerhouse with Help From US, Japan?
The United States and Japan are partnering with the Philippines to develop its vast critical‑minerals deposits and cut reliance on China. A CNAS report highlights the Philippines’ fourth‑largest copper and fifth‑largest nickel reserves, plus roughly $1 trillion in untapped gold, zinc...
Iran, US Mull Hormuz Toll; Oman Warns Legal Fallout
Iran and the US are considering imposing tolls on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the UN Law of the Sea's free passage principle. Oman opposes the tolls, raising legal and economic concerns that could impact global maritime norms...
US Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran‑weapon Suppliers
Getting back into the high and abrupt tariff implementation game. Threatening a 50% tariff (on goods sold to the US) on any country that supplies military weapons to Iran. That seems like it can get closer to a Section 232 approval...
The US Tariff Shock in 2025 vs 2026 – Same Negative Impact, Different Drivers
New US tariffs implemented in 2025 raised the effective rate by 8.1 percentage points, leading to an estimated 4.2% drop in EU‑US exports after accounting for front‑running effects. While Irish pharmaceutical shipments temporarily boosted trade, the overall impact was a modest...
Dollar Set to Tumble, Weakness Through 2026
The Dollar is tumbling as I forecast in my posts predicting a ceasefire. USD will now unwind all its rise from the past month, which was entirely due to short-term safe haven flows that'll now reverse. We're back to Dollar...
Ceasefire Won’t Instantly Heal Supply Chain Disruptions
🧵 The US-Iran ceasefire is being called a "big day for world peace" — but the supply chain damage is already done. Here's what's broken, what it costs you, and how long it takes to fix. A thread on the...
Long Covid Will Drain OECD Economies $135 Billion Annually
Long Covid predicted to cost OECD economies $135 billion a year https://t.co/4KeKqtPpWP via @ashleighfurlong https://t.co/LDMSBeZh3Y
Iran's New Strait of Hormuz Leverage Sparks Bypass Investments
Hormuz went from free passage to controlled chokepoint overnight, writes @JavierBlas That gives Iran real leverage now—but it also guarantees massive investment to bypass it. https://t.co/3R0l6Irxud #Energy #Geopolitics #Oil
Oil Near Support Level; Buyers May Return Amid Ongoing Conflict
Oil is coming into a level of interest that has been support since the conflict began. $CL_F $USO It would not surprise me to see it find buyers in this area again as the conflict has not been solved just...
Iran's Decentralized Structure Thwarts Decapitation Tactics
My take on Iran’s governmental organization with @CoffeeandaMike: “The way Iran is organized is very decentralized. With this kind of organizational structure, decapitation is bound to fail –– and it did fail in Iran.” https://t.co/nsee7XMejw
China Boosts Gold Reserves, Heralding Deglobalization Shift
Nothing to see here. China adds to its gold reserves. The deglobalization toothpaste is already out of the tube — and the rush into neutral assets is only just beginning. https://t.co/oXGnVgwKfX https://t.co/VQE5YC3lrf
Emerging Markets Test 2007 Peak, Bullish Momentum Holds
Most important chart in the world? Emerging markets broke out and tested their peak from 2007. So far, this important area is holding. Again, bullish action for the bull market we are in right now. https://t.co/cKNgzs56LA
Fed Shifts Focus: From Reserve Supply to Demand Liquidity
The Fed’s Overton window appears to be changing. Recent speeches suggest a shift in thinking from supply-driven ample reserves to demand-driven liquidity. Details in my latest newsletter: https://t.co/pPOkB73y6o @vtg2 @NickTimiraos @Isabel_Schnabel @conksresearch https://t.co/RyKoxuTxMA
Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on Iran Arms Suppliers
WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said any country supplying Iran with military weapons will face immediate 50% tariffs with no exemptions, announcing the duty in a social media post one day after agreeing to...
USTR Greer Backs US‑China Trade Board, Rejects Investment Forum
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer promoted the creation of a US-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a group focused on bilateral investment https://t.co/nnhzZxCmN4
Brazilian Real Surges Toward 2022 Fair Value
The Brazilian Real today is strengthening sharply against the Dollar. $/BRL has fallen below where it was on Feb. 27, i.e. before the war with Iran began. The Real will now start a big strengthening cycle. Back to $/BRL fair...