Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Trump Floats US Toll on Hormuz
President Donald Trump suggested the United States could levy tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that moves about 20 % of global oil and LNG. The proposal would require a U.S. military presence despite the strait lying mainly in Iranian and Omani waters, echoing earlier Trump rhetoric about controlling strategic chokepoints. At the same time, the strait has split into a dual‑corridor system, with a new southern route along Oman’s coast complementing the IRGC‑controlled northern lane. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has also blocked two Qatari LNG tankers, signaling heightened security risks.
France March Final Services PMI 48.8 vs 48.3 Prelim
France's services Purchasing Managers' Index slipped to a final 48.8 in March, down from the preliminary 48.3 and well below the 49.6 reading in February. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in new business orders, with respondents citing...
Italy March Services PMI 48.8 vs 50.9 Expected
Italy’s services Purchasing Managers' Index slipped to 48.8 in March, well below the 50.9 forecast, signalling a contraction for the fourth time in 30 months. Output and new business fell sharply while input‑price inflation surged to its highest level in...
Black Sea Oil Hubs in Crosshairs After Drone Strikes
Ukraine intensified drone attacks on Russian oil export hubs in the Black Sea, striking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk. The strikes damaged a single point mooring, loading infrastructure, four storage tanks, and six of seven berths at...
Gabriel Makhlouf: Bridge to the Future - Mobilising Europe's Savings in a Fragmenting World
Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, warned that Europe’s household deposits now total roughly $11 trillion, yet investment falls far short of the $818‑$872 billion needed annually by 2030. He linked this gap to weak growth, persistent Single Market...
China’s Courts Curb Forced Sales, Hiding True Mortgage Defaults
Bloomberg: "The moves [by local courts to limit the volume of forced property sales by slowing the number of cases involving defaulted mortgages] underscore how China’s local institutions are working to limit the damage of a yearslong property crisis that...
François Villeroy De Galhau: Little Time Left to Wake up - Can We Reconcile Europe with Speed?
François Villeroy de Galhau used his final Eurofi speech as Governor of the Banque de France to warn that Europe is running out of time to act on known reforms. He stressed that the continent knows what must be done,...
UK Business Confidence Hits Record Low
The Institute of Directors’ Economic Confidence Index plunged to a record low of –76 in March, down from –63 in February, while confidence in individual organisations turned negative for the first time in months. Cost‑expectations surged to +88, the second‑highest...
Petrodollar Death Rants Are Wishful, Not Insightful
🧵There’s been an acute breakout of death of the petrodollar thought pieces over the weekend. This should have discerning investors thinking twice. Not about the dollar, however. About piling into an obviously crowded and extremely unoriginal perspective that is mostly...
Regional Blocs Form New Multi‑Hub Global Trade Order
In case you missed the posting of my new eBook over Easter weekend👇https://t.co/AzOGN20mu3 The April 2025 US tariffs triggered global trade conflict. This column introduces World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order, a new CEPR Rapid...
Ida Wolden Bache: Policy Rate Kept Unchanged at This Meeting
Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, left its policy rate unchanged at 4 percent, citing persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and heightened uncertainty from rising energy prices. The committee warned that a rate increase is likely in upcoming meetings as wage...
Could Canada Join the EU? Most Canadians Would Not Rule It Out
A Spark Advocacy poll shows roughly half of Canadians consider EU membership worth exploring, while only 17% outright reject the idea. France’s foreign minister hinted Canada could become a future EU candidate, signaling diplomatic openness. The poll reflects growing curiosity...
Gold Tracks More Sideways Awaiting Further US-Iran Developments
Gold hovered around $4,640 on the day, slipping just 0.1% and remaining trapped in the $4,600‑$4,700 band that formed after last week’s drop. The metal tested the 100‑hour moving average near $4,660, while the daily 200‑day average around $4,658 continues...
Carolyn Rogers: An Anchor of Stability in Uncertain Times
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers addressed the Brandon Chamber of Commerce, warning that Canada faces three structural forces—U.S. protectionism, demographic slowdown, and artificial intelligence—that are reshaping the economy. She highlighted how trade‑policy volatility, especially Chinese canola tariffs and the upcoming...
Serbia, Hungary and North Macedonia Sign MoU with Focus on BuBe Railway
Serbian rail freight operator Srbija Kargo, Hungary’s Rail Cargo Hungaria and North Macedonia’s railway signed a memorandum of understanding to launch a synchronized rail service focused on the Budapest‑Belgrade line. The corridor, opened for freight in February, is positioned as...
Exclusive-Russia Supplies Iran with Cyber Support, Spy Imagery to Hone Attacks, Ukraine Says
Russian reconnaissance satellites conducted at least 24 passes over 46 military and critical sites in 11 Middle Eastern countries during March 21‑31, sharing high‑resolution imagery with Iran. The data preceded Iranian missile and drone attacks on bases, including a strike on...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The final PMI releases for the eurozone and the United Kingdom showed rising inflation and a slowdown in economic activity, confirming earlier preliminary trends. Market reaction is expected to be muted as investors focus on escalating US‑Iran tensions. In the...
Interview with BFM 89.9 Malaysia 07.04.2026
The Macro Butler appeared on BFM 89.9 Malaysia to warn that stagflation has taken hold and market volatility is only beginning. He argued that the macro environment favors a straightforward trade: buy the dips in gold and energy‑producing stocks while...
Q2 Playbook: Oil, Metals, Crypto
The Q2 outlook centers on persistently high oil prices, which keep inflation expectations elevated and liquidity cautious. Higher crude costs ripple through transport, power and food, acting like a hidden tax on the economy. Metals diverge: gold is poised for...
India Plans Sovereign Guarantees on Loans to Businesses Hit by Iran War, Sources Say
India will issue sovereign credit guarantees for up to $26.7 bn in loans to firms hurt by the Iran‑Israel conflict, targeting especially small and medium‑size enterprises. The program, modeled on pandemic‑era guarantees, will run for four years and cost the treasury...
Flags of Convenience: The Hidden System Behind Global Shipping
The podcast explains how flags of convenience let ship owners register vessels in countries like Panama, Liberia, and the Marshall Islands, regardless of any real connection. This practice began in the 1910s to dodge U.S. Prohibition and labor laws, then...
FAO Warns Global Food Prices Will Continue to Increase if Iran War Lasts
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said the Food Price Index rose 2.4% in March, its highest level since September 2022, as oil‑driven energy costs lift commodity prices. Wheat prices jumped 4.3% while fertilizer cost pressures threaten planting decisions in...
Prepare Now: 2026 Hormuz Shock Will Upend Budgets
We‘ve Only Just Begun in the words of Carol Carpenter. This is a long game. Risk managers need to be preparing their boards now for a traumatic 2026. Ditch your budget from 2025 and your growth targets. Run a strategy...
Oil Shock Pushes Thailand’s Inflation Toward Positive Territory
Thailand’s year‑long deflation streak is weakening as oil price spikes and Middle East supply disruptions feed through to consumer prices. The Commerce Ministry reported a 0.08 % year‑over‑year decline in the CPI for March, the twelfth consecutive month of falling prices...
Singapore Minister Warned Worst Case Not Fully Priced
Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warned that the war in Iran could trigger a deeper energy shock than markets currently anticipate. He highlighted that Singapore generates over 95% of its electricity from imported natural gas, with roughly half of...
EU Lumber Exports to UAE Slid 14% — Then the Strait of Hormuz Closed
European lumber exports to the UAE fell 14% in January, dropping to 29,500 cubic metres, while the average price rose 6% to $332 per cubic metre, 20% above a year earlier. The decline coincides with the closure of the Strait...
Drop in GDP/CPI Triggers Volatility—Protect Risk
GDP and CPI are dropping this week. This is where volatility spikes. Gold moves on inflation. Nasdaq moves on interest rates. Expect fast moves, liquidity grabs, and fakeouts. Wait for confirmation and protect your risk.
China Started Preparing for an Energy Crisis Long Before the Iran War
China has been quietly building a buffer against energy disruptions for years, stockpiling oil and accelerating renewable projects. Its aggressive shift toward solar, wind, hydro and electric vehicles has already cut domestic demand for refined oil, diesel and gasoline. Simultaneously,...
Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs
An oil‑price shock linked to escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the combined prices‑paid indexes for the March ISM Manufacturing and Non‑Manufacturing PMIs back to late‑2022 levels. The surge signals that both producer‑price and consumer‑price inflation are...
Allies’ Trust in U.S. Plummets, Eyes Turn Away
It will be a while before America can look another ally directly in the eye Source: Visual Capitalist https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/ig02-countries-losing-trust-in-the-u-s/
Sky-High Fuel Prices Will Drive Ship Efficiency Retrofits
U.S. efforts to block the IMO’s Net Zero Framework are unintentionally accelerating maritime sustainability as Middle‑East attacks drive bunker fuel prices to historic highs. The surge in marine fuel costs dramatically shortens the payback horizon for efficiency retrofits, making measures...
SPY Bullish on Earnings, AI
Macro: SPY supported by ~17.5% S&P earnings growth and AI/NVIDIA outperformance. Technicals are bullish but 150‑day EMA caps. Risk: higher oil → inflation, Fed hawkish shift. Trade: buy pullbacks; stop <150‑day EMA. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Chart Alert: Japan’s Nikkei 225 Is Flashing Bearish Breakdown Conditions ...
Japan’s Nikkei 225 has reversed sharply, losing 9.2% since Feb 28, turning from early‑year outperformance into one of the world’s worst‑performing indices. The decline is driven by rising stagflation concerns as crude oil stays above $100 per barrel amid the ongoing...
Buy DXY on Break Above 100.20 as USD Rises
Macro: USD strengthens as global stress persists. Key factors: robust US data, rising oil and yields. Risks: Middle East tensions and higher inflation. Trade: Buy DXY on a clean break above 100.20; targets 101–103. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights:...
More Bank Staff, Lower Pay Stalls Chinese Consumption
Interesting story. While employee numbers at nine joint-stock banks in China climbed last year, total compensation actually declined, by 1.4%. I don't know how typical this is, but it does suggest why it has been so hard to accelerate consumption...
Iran's Moves
What Iran means for the dollar: a perfect storm for the petrodollar - Deutsche Bank Research Institute https://t.co/gVdGKCUzyc Why have fiat as an intermediary when you could trade oil tokens for wheat tokens (or whatever) ? https://t.co/ocO6m7zPVd
Potash Prices Remain Stable Amid Fertilizer Market Shifts
CHARTS OF THE DAY: Not every fertiliser price is going up. Back in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, nitrogen fertilisers (urea and ammonia) rose shaprly. AT THE SAME TIME, potash fertiliser (potassium chloride) also surged. This time, potash fertilisers are little changed....
IMF Urges Nations to Fix Domestic Imbalances Independently
1/15 IMF: "If coordination proves difficult, the best course of action for each country is clear: start addressing domestic imbalances now, regardless of what others do." This is one of several discordant lines in an otherwise interesting paper. https://t.co/Yn79aOWNzr
Pakistan's Debt Service Will Swallow All Tax Revenue by 2030
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's public debt servicing is SOARING. By 2030, debt servicing is expected to consume ALL of Pakistan’s tax revenue. PAKISTAN = NEAR COLLAPSE. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/DfYw73ks3A
Pakistan Shuts Shops Early as Qatar LNG Supply Stalls
Pakistan will close shops early in its latest energy-savings measures 🇵🇰⚡ Markets, malls and shops across most of the country will shut by 8pm Pakistan received 99% of its LNG from Qatar last year. Qatar has halted exports for over a month...
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: On February 28th, President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' WAS...
China Buys Iran's Oil, Sustaining Sanctions‑busting War Funding
How China Helped Iran Cushion the Blow of Sanctions and Fund Its War Machine—Over the past half decade, China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline by buying most of its oil @RoryWSJ @BrianSpegele @austinramzy https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU https://t.co/36s4JdH6hU
Gulf States Pivot to New Allies After
The Gulf Arab states may seek alliances with Turkey, China, India, & Japan says @MahmoudianArman The US war ruined their futures by destroying foreign investment based on perception of stability #Gulf #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #MiddleEast https://t.co/GyYMSu7OKQ
Iran Vows to Press Attacks Despite Any Concessions
A deal looks unlikely Iran believes the attacks will continue no matter what it concedes. Tehran is prepared for this war to continue, writes @gbrew24 https://t.co/uo1jq4IVjS #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis
War Delays Petrochemical Recovery for Years, Not Weeks
"12 to 20 percent of global petrochemical output that is now offline will not return until the war ends.. heat exchangers are manufactured, & the utilities are rebuilt. That timeline is not weeks. It is years. And Tuesday is today" Looks...
Philippines' Inflation Spike Highlights Energy Import Risks
Philippine inflation sees biggest upward shift (from previous month) in 30 years. This underscores how quickly macro outlook can shift for net energy importers https://t.co/uyJL7TG4tv
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid War, Defying Claims
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Stagflation, Debt Surge Prompt Rate Cuts, Boost Real Assets
Ladies and gentlemen: Stagflation at record debt levels. Now imagine being forced to cut rates as inflation reaccelerates. Real assets are about to get very interesting. https://t.co/KMgGEdt8ru https://t.co/hbpbojd6Yg
Trump Tariffs Trigger Another $15‑20 B in Farm Subsidies
Another $15-$20 billion in US farmer subsidies may be coming, thanks (again) to Trump's tariffs: https://t.co/872jQQ9zXA https://t.co/q8my1D6OiM
Blaming “America Inc.” Fuels Global Price Surge
ICYMI - My thoughts in the FT on what happens if "America Inc." is now blamed for higher global prices https://t.co/SqaqFvPCfI