Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Chhangani and Kumar Cited in 2025 ECA Report Discussing Advancement of Regional Integration in Africa Using Frontier Technologies and Innovation
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa’s 2025 report on regional integration cites Atlantic Council experts Alisha Chhangani and Ananya Kumar. The paper highlights how frontier technologies—artificial intelligence, blockchain, renewable energy, and satellite communications—can accelerate cross‑border trade and policy harmonisation across the continent. Their contributions shape the report’s recommendations on digital infrastructure, data governance, and innovation ecosystems. The citation underscores growing recognition of private‑sector expertise in shaping Africa’s integration agenda.
Lipsky Cited in Bloomberg Article Detailing Why the Iran War May Impact Trump’s Goal of Lowering Interest Rates
A Bloomberg piece cites Atlantic Council analyst Josh Lipsky to explain how the escalating war in Iran could derail former President Donald Trump’s longstanding ambition to push the Federal Reserve toward lower interest rates. The conflict is inflating geopolitical risk...
Nikoladze Joined the Embassy of the Republic of Poland to Launch and Discuss Findings From the Organizations’ New Report
Atlantic Council expert Maia Nikoladze partnered with the Embassy of the Republic of Poland on April 6, 2026 to unveil a joint report that maps Iran’s logistical and financial support for Russia’s drone campaign in Ukraine. The analysis quantifies the flow of...
Washington Post Cites GeoEconomics Research on China’s Cross-Border Digital Currency Platform mBridge
The Washington Post referenced a new GeoEconomics study highlighting China’s cross‑border digital currency platform, mBridge. The research notes that mBridge, built on the digital yuan, now supports real‑time settlements among pilot banks in Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian hubs....
U.S. Petroleum Exports Hit Record, Reaching New Markets
U.S. weekly petroleum product exports surged to a record 7.9 mb/d for the week ending March 27, according to EIA. While weekly figures are volatile, multiple sources have reported U.S. product exports increasing to Asia, Africa and other areas. Trade...
When Will Grain Markets Lose the Geopolitical Premium?
The USDA Prospective Plantings report showed corn, soybean and wheat numbers essentially in line with expectations, leaving little room for surprise. Prices held firm, with December corn hovering near $4.85 and November soybeans around $11.57, reflecting continued market resilience. Fund...
South Africa’s Inflation Plummets, SARB Swings Rates Aggressively
South Africa's inflation peaked at around 7.8% in mid 2022 and fell to a cycle low of around 2.7% in March 2025. The SARB responded with one of its most aggressive hiking cycles in recent history, taking the repo rate...
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War Vs. Now
The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) now trades about 23 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s median funds‑rate projections for both year‑end 2023 and the end of 2027. This premium emerged after the war in the Middle East shifted market...
The Hidden Demand Shifts Behind Higher Gas Prices
Higher gasoline prices are prompting subtle but measurable shifts in consumer behavior before any dip in overall spend appears. Shoppers are consolidating trips, opting for smaller packs, lower‑priced substitutes, and relying more on promotions. Brands that monitor first‑party data can...
Zimbabwe Aims for Upper‑middle‑income Status by 2030
Zimbabwe is a middle income country… that’s why Vision 2030 is about becoming an UPPER MIDDLE INCOME ECONOMY… Of course you can be poor as an individual due to your own circumstances, but don’t drag the whole country into your...
US Fed's Austan Goolsbee, Beth Hammack Say Inflation Is Flashing 'Orange' Or Worse
Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee and Beth Hammack warned that inflation remains the dominant risk, rating it at least orange and possibly moving toward red amid rising energy costs and lingering tariff effects. They both emphasized the need for tighter...
Biden Administration Oversaw Gaza's Civilian Infrastructure Destruction
Not to be like, That Guy or whatever, but this was the very clear position of the Biden administration as it oversaw the destruction of essentially all the civilian infrastructure capable of sustaining human life in Gaza
Oil Spike Triggers Biggest Monthly Inflation Rise Since 2022
We just saw largest monthly inflation increase since 2022. Most people still don't realize exactly why this happened and what the implications are. It starts with oil. Oil is the backbone of the global economy, so when it spikes, the impact doesn’t stay...
Why American Support for Israel Is Collapsing and Netanyahu Knows It
American public opinion is shifting dramatically, with more voters now sympathizing with Palestinians than with Israel for the first time in polling history. AIPAC’s once‑dominant lobbying clout is eroding, prompting the group to rebrand through obscure shell organizations. Meanwhile, the...
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
A year after the so‑called "Liberation Day," the Yale Budget Lab finds that U.S. tariff costs are now passed through to consumers at a 76% rate, reaching 100% for many durable goods. Fed Chair Jay Powell estimates tariffs are adding...
India’s Coffee Exports Hit a Record High of $2.13 Billion in 2025-26 Fiscal
India’s coffee exports surged to a record $2.13 billion in FY 2025‑26, a 17% increase over the prior year. Export volumes rose 4.65% to 4.07 lakh tonnes, while the average price per tonne jumped 17% to roughly $5,600. The growth was driven by...
NY Fed Says March Supply Chain Pressures Highest Since Start of 2023
The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to 0.68 in March, up from 0.54 in February, marking the highest level since early 2023. The increase follows a peak of 4.49 in December 2021, but remains well...
China’s Luxury Spending Set to Lift Global Sales 5‑6% in 2026
HSBC, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas project global luxury sales to grow 5.5‑6% in 2026, with mainland China delivering an 8% rise. The forecast comes as analysts weigh a volatile property market and higher oil prices against strong consumer sentiment among...
Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Wake of “F*****’ Strait” Post
The latest Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) chart shows the index hovering around 791 despite former President Donald Trump’s profanity‑filled Easter‑day threat to close a strategic strait. Analysts expected a sharp spike, but the data remained flat, suggesting market participants discounted...
Hormuz Oil Flows Remain Severely Reduced, Markets Underestimate Recovery
Hormuz flows aren't coming back to normal despite what you hear, says @CroftHelima Transit will be a fraction of pre-war levels because Iran’s leverage depends on keeping energy markets tight. And even after a deal, the road back is long. Markets are...
March Services PMI Signals Continued Growth as Costs and Global Tensions Weigh on Outlook
The Institute for Supply Management reported a March Services PMI of 54.0, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion but a 2.1% dip from February. New orders surged to 60.6, while the employment sub‑index slipped to 45.2, indicating job contraction....
Geopolitical Tension Over Potential U.S.-Iran Conflict Fuels Market Volatility
U.S. stock futures edged higher amid a volatile backdrop of escalating U.S.-Iran rhetoric and cease‑fire talks. S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% and Nasdaq futures 0.4% while oil slipped to $110 a barrel, reflecting investors’ nervousness over a possible conflict.
Ridley: We Owe Our Prosperity to 2 Men From Glasgow
Matt Ridley’s latest essay argues that modern prosperity traces back to two 1776 Glasgow breakthroughs: Adam Smith’s seminal "Wealth of Nations" and James Watt’s commercially viable steam engine. He contends that Smith’s doctrine of spontaneous order and Watt’s cheap, heat‑driven...
Middle‑East Conflict Boosts Oil, Lifts Tokyo and Seoul Stocks as Asian Markets Split
Rising geopolitical risk from the Middle East war lifted crude to a flat $111.61 per barrel and spurred a 1.6% rise in Japan's Nikkei and a 2.2% jump in South Korea's KOSPI. Tokyo and Seoul were the only Asian markets...
Wells Fargo Investment Institute Downgrades Energy Sector to 'Unfavorable' On Limited War Premium
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) downgraded the S&P 500 energy sector to "unfavorable," arguing that the war‑driven oil‑price premium is likely short‑lived. The sector has outperformed, gaining more than 6% since the Middle East conflict began, the strongest among S&P sectors....
USMEF: US Pork, Beef Exports Deliver Strong Per-Head Value
US pork exports delivered a per‑head value of over $67 in February, while beef reached nearly $423 per fed animal, according to USMEF data. Pork shipments increased 1% to 242,511 tonnes, with notable growth in Mexico and a 20% rebound in...
India Resilient as Global Economy Shifts From ‘Shocks’ to 'Permanent Volatility'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman warned that the global economy is shifting from episodic shocks to “permanent volatility” driven by trade fragmentation and the West Asia conflict. She highlighted India’s strong fiscal position, with general government debt at about 81% of...
War Depreciates Money; Real Assets Outperform
"The one thing you can be quite sure of: if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down. You’re going to be a lot better off owning productive assets over the next fifty years...
Metal Tariff Adjustments Aren’t a Win for Packaging, Trade Groups Say
The Trump administration revised Section 232 metal tariffs, keeping a 50% rate on products made almost entirely of aluminum, steel or copper while lowering the levy to 25% for derivative items substantially composed of those metals. Items containing 15% or less...
Iran War Photobombs Key Services Sector Snapshot
The article warns that the ongoing Iran conflict is reshaping financial reporting and outlooks for the U.S. services sector. It notes that 1Q earnings guidance across S&P 500 companies has reached a five‑year high, but uncertainty looms for 2Q as geopolitical...
Conflicting Data Undermines Trust in NFP Service Jobs
Best month for service-sector employment (+143k) since December 2024 if you believe the nonfarm payroll report. Worst month since December 2023 if you believe the ISM survey that just came out. Take your pick, because they both can’t be right. Thing is –...
Dimon Warns AI, Wars Test US, Calls for Freedom
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that global conflicts, economic uncertainty and rapid AI disruption are testing the U.S., urging a renewed commitment to “freedom, liberty and opportunity.” In his annual letter to shareholders, he cited wars, inflation, trade tensions...
Bid to Add Bicycles to Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Is Denied
The Trump administration rejected a proposal to extend a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum to imported bicycles, keeping the current duty structure unchanged. The request, filed by Guardian Bikes and the Aluminum Extruders Council, sought to tax the metal...
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid US-Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
Trump Demands Free Oil Flow Through Hormuz in Deal
US President Donald Trump says that “part of the deal is we want free traffic of oil” via the Strait of Hormuz. (In reference to the current US-Iran talks via regional intermediaries)
Is Economic Forecasting Still Possible?
The sudden outbreak of war in Iran has dramatically disrupted global oil supply routes, causing a sharp surge in oil prices. This shock has forced central banks, finance ministries, and forecasters to confront an unprecedented macroeconomic environment. Traditional forecasting models,...
Consistent Framework Prevents Misreading Tariff Shock Data
Operating from an intellectually and internally consistent framework for how a policy shock like tariffs should affect the economy will help guard against misleading interpretations of the data. https://t.co/GgMqA3UftP https://t.co/cP8F1ngAEQ
Tariffs Mostly Shifted to Foreign Exporters, Not Consumers
Fun paper from Fed/Georgetown economists: A chunk of what was thought to be price increases driven by 2018-19 tariffs is attributable to smaller purchase orders due to tariffs. Their conclusion: tariffs were primarily borne by foreign exporters. https://t.co/wxoheNJ8PO
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES) nonfarm payroll series appears more volatile in 2026 compared with the ADP private‑sector estimate. The divergence cannot be clearly tied to the February nurses strike or to the new birth‑death...
Markets Rise on Deal Hopes, Energy Pressure Relief
Why are markets rallying despite Trump's threats? 1. They think deal in imminent 2.They think US will take the Strait of Hormuz either way pressure on energy comes down.
Houthis Grip Bab Al-Mandeb, Threaten Global Shipping
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the gateway into the Red Sea, en route to the Suez Canal. Houthis CONTROL THE STRAIT. Ships avoid the strait because of danger & punishing insurance rates. If Trump escalates in Iran, the Houthis will squeeze the chokepoint...
China’s Yuan May Be Going Global Faster than Western Data Suggests, Analysts Say
Analysts argue that China’s yuan is expanding globally faster than traditional metrics reveal, as an increasing volume of cross‑border transactions now flow through the country’s own payment network, CIPS. Because CIPS and bilateral settlement channels bypass SWIFT’s messaging system, they...
NYC’s Financial Hub Likely to Relocate to Texas
If and when the end of this Fourth Turning comes, and the Financial Capital of the World leaves NYC, it is more likely to end up moving to Texas than somewhere in Asia. https://t.co/CrIB1ON3YH
French vs South African Chains Battle African Retail
Many African retail markets are contested by dueling French and South African chains. This and more featured in the Chartbook Top Links. https://t.co/zZCQM6c25l
How the Strait of Hormuz Shapes Global Goods Flow
We did an awesome interview on the physical layout and flow of goods resulting from the Strait of Hormuz, with @mercoglianos. Listen here. https://t.co/jmVFr6LS8L
Saudi, Qatar, Abu Dhabi Fund 30% of Paramount‑Warner Deal
About 30% of Paramount's $81B takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery is financed by the sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi—three countries attacked by Iran since the U.S. started its latest Middle East conflict. https://t.co/mOjqkF3fza
US Energy Independence Is a Myth Amid Global Shocks
Just read a wild JPMorgan note on the current energy + war situation. Here are the spiciest takes 🧵 “US energy independence” is basically a myth. Even as a net exporter, the US is still getting hit by global price shocks—sometimes worse...
Google Searches for “Recession” Hit All‑time High.
Not great... Worldwide Google news search for the term 'recession' is the highest its been since records began (~Dec 2007). There were literal #recessions over that period... https://t.co/poAknCUGME
Currie Calls Iran War Oil Shock Unprecedented, Like 1973+1979
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the OIL SHOCK caused by Trump & Netanyahu's war in Iran: "It is the largest shock the oil markets have ever seen in their history... [It is] the culmination of ‘73 and...
Soybean Inspections to China Surge, Other Grains Flat
Export inspections destined for China in the week ending April 2 (mln bu): #corn 0.0, grain sorghum 2.3, #soybeans 18.3, #wheat 0.0 #oatt