Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
China’s Yuan May Be Going Global Faster than Western Data Suggests, Analysts Say
Analysts argue that China’s yuan is expanding globally faster than traditional metrics reveal, as an increasing volume of cross‑border transactions now flow through the country’s own payment network, CIPS. Because CIPS and bilateral settlement channels bypass SWIFT’s messaging system, they are largely invisible to the widely‑cited SWIFT data set. Beijing’s central bank claims the yuan is the world’s third‑largest payment currency, while SWIFT’s February 2025 figures place it sixth with a 2.74% share of global payment value. The discrepancy highlights a growing blind spot in conventional payment monitoring tools.
Jamie Dimon's Three-Pronged Warning: Iran Inflation Risk, Private Credit Cracks, and AI's Unknowns
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon used his annual shareholder letter to flag three intertwined risks for 2026: a potential inflation surge from the Iran war, higher‑than‑expected losses in private‑credit markets, and unpredictable second‑order effects from artificial‑intelligence adoption. He likened the inflation...
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
The 5‑year Treasury‑TIPS breakeven spread rose 14 basis points through March 31, reaching a 21‑bp gain by April 3, while the DKW model’s five‑year inflation expectation increased 10 basis points over the same window. A simple conversion suggests that a 10‑bp rise...
Trump Metal Tariffs Stick Around, with some New Exceptions
The Trump administration has reaffirmed its Section 232 tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and copper, keeping the 50% duty on primary metal products while introducing tiered rates for lower‑content items. Products with substantial metal composition now face a 25% duty, those...
Trump Turmoil in Asia Sends Chills Through Seoul While China Keeps Its Cool
The Middle East war has amplified volatility across Asian equity markets, with Japan's Nikkei and India's Sensex each plunging around 13% in March, while South Korea's Kospi fell 13% since February before rebounding 8% in April. Trump’s unpredictable statements added...
Bank of America Downgrades Carvana. Why the Stock's Recent Dip Isn't a Buying Opportunity
Bank of America downgraded Carvana to neutral and lowered its price target to $360 from $400, still implying roughly 15% upside from the latest close. The used‑car retailer’s shares have fallen 26% in 2026 after a near‑four‑fold rally in 2024‑25,...
34,000 Shipping Routes Diverted From Hormuz Disruption: Report
More than 34,000 vessels were forced to reroute in the first four weeks after the Feb. 28 U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, with week 4 recording the highest diversion volume. Project44’s data show that traffic has not reverted to pre‑disruption patterns, as carriers...
Bond Markets Point The Way
The article argues that the Iran conflict, while unsettling, is less damaging to the real global economy than initially feared. However, it is accelerating a pre‑existing decline in global liquidity that began earlier this year. Higher oil prices and rising...
China Provides E-Commerce Guidelines After Visit of EU Legislators
China released new e‑commerce guidance aimed at aligning domestic growth with international markets, following a high‑profile visit by European Parliament members. The policy encourages Chinese platforms to set up overseas procurement bases, expand imports of premium goods, and create an...
Retailers Rely on This Tariff Mitigation Tactic. Congress Has Noticed.
Retailers are increasingly using the decades‑old First Sale customs rule to lower tariff liabilities, with Target citing the method in its FY2025 filing and reporting sizable refunds. The rule lets importers declare the price paid in the earliest transaction of...
West Asia Crisis Hits Activated Carbon Exports as Costs Surge Amid Shipping Woes
The West Asia crisis has shut Red Sea shipping lanes, halting Indian activated carbon shipments to key gold‑mining markets such as Sudan and Egypt. Exporters now face a $3,000 war‑risk surcharge per 40‑ft container and an extra $1,800 cost to...
Ceasefire Stalled: US Wants Open Strait, Iran Opposes
Okay, so here’s how how the ceasefire cookie crumbles: - A ceasefire without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will likely be unacceptable to the US. - A ceasefire with a reopening will likely be unacceptable to Iran. Iran appears serious...
Boeing, China, and Tariffs: A Slow-Burn Crisis
Boeing is facing its most severe tariff-related crisis with China as U.S. duties on Chinese aerospace components intensify. The dispute, rooted in a 2025 freeze on certain imports, has escalated, inflating Boeing's production costs and delaying aircraft deliveries to Chinese...
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Raising Cost of Capital for AI Stocks in 2026
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged on March 18, signaling at most one cut this year and another in 2027. Analysts warn that higher financing costs could curb AI‑related capex and compress valuations for high‑growth AI stocks such...
South Korea's Sovereign Debt Tops $861 Billion, Debt‑to‑GDP Near 50%
South Korea’s finance ministry reported that national debt reached a record $861.2 bn in 2025, pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio to 49%. The surge reflects combined internal and external shocks, prompting debate over fiscal strategy as the country balances stimulus with debt...
Gold-Fuelled Import Surge Widens Canada’s Trade Gap to $5.7 Billion
Canada’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $5.7 bn CAD (about $4.2 bn USD) in February 2026, driven largely by a 45.6% jump in gold imports. Imports rose 8.4% to $72.1 bn CAD (~$52.6 bn USD) while exports grew 6.4% to $66.3 bn CAD...
Trump Treads Carefully on Fragile China Trade Truce
'Walking on eggshells’: How Trump is managing his delicate China truce “We don’t unwind a generation of outsourcing and product dependency quickly. I mean, you just can’t without such massive disruptions that it’s really not worth it. You’re killing the...
Saudi Oil Price Surge Signals Phase Three Economic Fallout
From the Bloomberg article on “Saudi Arabia rais[ing] the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium.” This price development coincides with more Asian governments worrying about physical energy supplies—marking part of what I’ve termed "Phase...
US Blames Mexico for Self-Inflicted Wound in Trade
The U.S. Trade Representative released its annual Non‑Tariff Measures report, dramatically expanding the section on Mexico, the United States’ biggest commercial partner. The report reiterates long‑standing grievances—an opaque regulatory system and caps on foreign investment in the energy sector—framing them...
America’s Currency Is the Global South’s Problem
The article argues that although the U.S. dollar’s share of global foreign reserves has been slipping since its 2001 peak, the decline is incremental, ensuring the greenback’s dominance for the foreseeable future. Nations in the Global South cannot simply wait...
US Stocks Rise as Dip Buyers Return Amid Ceasefire Hopes
U.S. equities nudged higher on Tuesday as investors returned after a dip, spurred by diplomatic talks toward a cease‑fire in the Iran‑Hormuz dispute. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4% while crude oil edged up after OPEC+ signaled...
US Bonds Steady as Traders Bet War Uncertainty Keeps Fed on Hold
Bond traders entered the week betting the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, leaving two‑year Treasury yields near 3.86% and 10‑year yields around 4.34%. The market’s steadiness reflects lingering uncertainty from the Iran‑U.S. conflict, especially after President Trump...
Prolonged Stress Test Lurks for Global Markets as War Continues
The ongoing war with Iran has entered a sixth week, keeping the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and disrupting roughly one‑fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. This chokepoint shutdown has pushed the Global Market Index down 4.8% and forced...
Liberia: How Many Shocks Before We Build Our Own Strength?
Liberia’s economy is repeatedly jolted by external shocks—from wars to pandemics to soaring oil prices—because it imports nearly all its petroleum and relies heavily on raw‑material exports. The editorial argues that explaining these price spikes is insufficient; the country needs...
Kyodo News Digest: April 6, 2026
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled willingness to hold summit talks with Iran as U.S. pressure over the Strait of Hormuz intensifies. In March, Chinese military aircraft and balloons near Taiwan fell by half, marking a rare lull after daily...
Singapore Fuel Prices Surge, Threatening Shipping Operations
singapore shipping fuel market going off the chart—this is shipping fuel shortage live. at that price, shippers will defer orders, park their ships and either wait till the war is over or go out of business.
Soybean Inspections to China Surge, Other Grains Flat
Export inspections destined for China in the week ending April 2 (mln bu): #corn 0.0, grain sorghum 2.3, #soybeans 18.3, #wheat 0.0 #oatt
Top Links 1064 Jobs V. Cardboard Boxes. Pakistan Makes Public Transport Free. The African Retail Battle. Bousquet or the "Grand...
International Paper, the United States' largest cardboard box producer, announced the closure of two mills in Georgia, resulting in more than 1,000 job cuts. The move reflects a broader contraction in the American cardboard packaging sector, driven by weaker demand...
Unemployment Hits Historic Low Since 1971‑1998
The current unemployment rate is lower than where it was every single month from 1971 to 1998. https://t.co/VAAexazBPH
Trump Metal Tariffs Remain, with Several New Exceptions Added
Trump metal tariffs stick around, with some new exceptions #energysky -- via Solar Power World: https://t.co/yscNdORQWs
Trump Sets Tuesday Deadline to Reopen Strait of Hormuz as Jet Fuel Prices Double
President Donald Trump gave Iran a Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a move that comes as jet fuel prices have more than doubled to $4.57 per gallon. The deadline has already triggered a wave of...
Economists: U.S. Firms, Consumers Shoulder 90% of Tariffs
Yet another set of reputable trade economists has found American companies and consumers paying for almost all of Trump's 2025 tariffs (here, 90%): https://t.co/181rja53he https://t.co/CXheguca42
USMCA Negotiations Quietly Shape Future Trade Landscape
While Everyone Watches Oil and Tariffs, USMCA Looms - https://t.co/D7EQGyKCLJ #USCMA #Mexico #Canada #globaltrade #supplychain #logistics
Today's Stubborn Inflation Driven by New Factors, Not 1970s
This chart is fine as a simple comparison of historical inflation experiences, but the current tenaciousness of inflation is due to different factors, and is happening in a different policy context, from the inflation of the late 1970s. 1/2
Dollar's Global Grip Shows Cracks, Not Collapse
Is the dollar’s global dominance foundation starting to crack or just facing a few termites? 🐜💵 I sat down with former Fed & Treasury insiders @steven_kamin & @sobel_mark to unpack threats to dollar dominance, fiscal policy, Fed independence,...
Allies Hedge Bets, Distrust U.S. Amid Growing Skepticism
More evidence that even U.S. friends and allies don’t trust Uncle Sam and are hedging, pivoting away from the USA. https://t.co/Sn8dFUs5GJ
Demand Will Collapse Once Inventories Exhausted, Prices Surge
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on oil supply and demand: "Once we exhaust our ability to draw down inventories [in] mid to late April... demand has to come crashing down in line with supply. The key question is...
Japan's Future Bright, Europe's Past Fades with US Alliance
Japan’s greatest days are ahead of it, as it recommits to its partnership with America Europe’s best days are behind it, as it moves away from its alliance with the US
China Shifts Upstream in Global Production Networks
China moves upstream in production networks. More on this in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/z8YSI2hXDR
Summers Wasn't Alone: Multiple Economists Warned of Inflation
It’s strange how Summers is often implicitly covered as if he were the only economist who warned about inflation in 2021 The dominant forecast was it would be transitory (there’s still debate as to whether it ended up being a really...
War‑driven Gas Prices Could Hit $5 Before Midterms
The US is running on borrowed time in this war. The average price of one gallon of gasoline isn't yet at the $5 it reached in 2022 after Russia's Ukraine invasion, but it's heading there if this war continues. That...
Ceasefire Triggers Oil Drop, Dollar Decline, EM Rally
A ceasefire is coming. Two things will get repriced quickly when that happens. Oil futures will tumble and the Dollar will fall sharply. The latter is up on safe haven inflows to the US. All those inflows will unwind very...
Iran Conflict Set to Reshape Global Supply Chains, Dimon Warns
Jamie Dimon. JP Morgan. Iran war. Change GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS. Across industries and market sectors. Oil and its distillates and derivatives. Petrochemicals. Sulfur. Alumina. Fertilizer. More.
Record Foreign Inflows Defy “Sell America” Rhetoric
One year ago, after the rollout of reciprocal tariffs, "Sell America" was all the rage. But there never was a "Sell America" trade and no "Hedge America" trade either. Foreign inflows into the US are at record highs. Actions speak...
US Hormuz Deadline Extended, Markets Shift to Dollar, Oil
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum: The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and…...
Tariff on Auto Parts Doubles Consumer Losses, Cuts U.S. Profits
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs, Global Value Chains, and the Incidence of Protection: Evidence from US Automobiles" https://t.co/qydVvo0gkV Extending tariffs to intermediate inputs doubles consumer losses, "and producer surplus for U.S.-headquartered firms declines by about $2.6 billion" 😲
Saudi Raises Oil Price to $19.5, Asia Inflation Spikes
🚨 JUST IN Saudi Arabia has just increased its official oil selling price to a record high of $19.5/barrel. Inflation in Asia is about to skyrocket. https://t.co/dtEBhiWdgT
Three Tariffs Put U.S. Heavy‑Truck Makers at Disadvantage
"U.S. Manufacturers Of Heavy-Duty Trucks Face A Tariff Disadvantage" https://t.co/ihpfPPczuL "There are three sets of tariffs affecting the cost basis of trucks manufactured in the U.S." https://t.co/l6SoB2YgXQ
Europe's U.S.-Excluding Trade Plans Are Fundamentally Flawed
European efforts to build trade systems that exclude the U.S. are inherently flawed. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wTTMKJCfX2 #eu #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/gxyaAjNqwT
Cease‑fire Hopes Lift Market, but Negotiators Remain Doubtful
Hope of a cease-fire between US/Israel and Iran has captured the imaginations of the holiday-thinned market today. The negotiators themselves reported are not optimistic. $USD gave back earlier gains and is posting a possible outside down day. See https://t.co/Km1zBLaVJG...