Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Trump Launches ‘Art of the Genocide’
U.S. forces struck Iran's main oil export hub on Kharg Island, delivering a heavy blow to Tehran's petroleum output. President Donald Trump warned that a "whole civilisation will die tonight" unless Iran capitulated and reopened the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz. The bombing occurred roughly 12 hours before Trump's self‑imposed deadline expired at 8 p.m. Washington time. The move escalates an already volatile conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic.
Trump Says He's Extending the Deadline for Iran by 2 Weeks in Exchange for Immediate Opening of the Strait of...
President Donald Trump announced a two‑week extension of the deadline for a deal with Iran, contingent on the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The conditional ceasefire aims to create space for negotiations that could end the ongoing conflict....
Ceasefire Triggers Oil and Bond Yield Declines
Two-week ceasefire leads to drops in oil and bond yields. #oil #bonds #economics #mortgagerates #chartdaddy
The Iran Conflict Isn’t Panicking Investors — Yet. That’s About to Change.
Since the Iran conflict erupted in late February, U.S. equities have drifted lower but have not suffered a sharp sell‑off. Corporate bond spreads have stayed relatively narrow, and long‑term inflation expectations have risen only modestly. Wall Street analysts find the...
Transcript: Guns and Butter and Credit
The FT Unhedged podcast likens today’s economy to the 1960s “guns‑and‑butter” era, where soaring defence outlays and expansive fiscal stimulus coexist. Hosts warn that this combination could reignite inflation, putting long‑duration bonds and growth‑stock portfolios at risk. They note a...
4 Scenarios On How The Iran Conflict Could Reshape Energy Markets
The article outlines four plausible futures for global energy markets based on U.S. actions and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. withdrawal could either restore the status quo or lock in a new normal of higher, volatile...
Russia and China Veto UN Security Council Resolution on Hormuz Security
Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at endorsing defensive measures to secure the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks. The text had been softened from authorizing "all necessary means" to merely encouraging naval escorts, yet it...
Dollar Exists to Guard Capitalism, Not Just Cover Deficits
There are so many layers to the dollar story that transcend conventional market economic dynamics. Until investors realise this I do believe they will be caught out by narratives that serve political agendas not reality. Crucially, most “end of the dollar”...
Only Virtual Talks, No New Investment Push Before Xi-Trump Summit: Greer
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he will not travel to Beijing before the planned Trump‑Xi summit, opting instead for virtual preparatory talks. He emphasized that working‑level groups are already meeting regularly online and that there will be no new...
Dow Jones Futures Jump, Oil Prices Dive On Trump-Iran Cease-Fire; What To Do Now
Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures surged 2‑3% after President Trump announced a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil plunged about 15% to below $96 per barrel, while the 10‑year Treasury yield...
France’s Strait of Hormuz Problem
France, the Eurozone’s second‑largest economy, is confronting a fiscal shock as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil, gas and fertilizer prices up by roughly 60% and 50% respectively. Already running a budget deficit above five percent...
War-Driven Supply Squeeze Could Boost US Resins Exports in 2026
U.S. resin exporters are poised for another strong year in 2026 as the war in the Middle East tightens global feedstock supplies. Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant and the shutdown of Iran’s South Pars gas field have curtailed ethane and...
Capital Flows Livestream: CPI, Iran - Will the VIX Blow Out?
Capital Flows is launching a livestream that spotlights four market themes it believes are under‑priced. The discussion will cover the WTI‑Brent spread, now at its widest since 2008, and record‑high crude options open interest, which could amplify tail risk. It...
Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum Hit European Machine Producers
The Trump administration implemented a flat 25% tariff on most European‑made machinery starting April 6, with a future 50% rate slated for steel‑heavy products. A limited 15% relief applies only to certain equipment, such as injection molding machines, until December 31 2027. The...
Can Pakistan Get the US and Iran Off the Ledge?
Pakistan has re‑emerged as a pivotal intermediary between Washington and Tehran after the Trump administration reversed the Biden‑era tilt toward India. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted a two‑week cease‑fire proposal, emphasizing Pakistan’s ties to Saudi Arabia and its recent mutual‑defense...
The Gulf’s Digital Transformation
The United Arab Emirates is positioning itself as the Gulf’s premier hub for digital assets, with regulators such as VARA, ADGM and the Securities and Commodities Authority creating a clear, activity‑based framework for tokenized securities, real estate and even oil‑backed...
Nasdaq Rises as Iran Deadline Draws Near: Stock Market Today
U.S. markets opened lower as Iran’s deadline loomed, but the Nasdaq managed a modest 0.1% gain while the Dow slipped 0.2%. Crude oil spiked 4.6% intraday, reaching $117.63 before easing to $112.27, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk from Tehran’s threats to...
JPMorgan Sees Zero Fed Cuts Through 2026, Warns Borrowers Amid Oil Shock
JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli told CNBC that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all through 2026, and may even hike 25 basis points in late 2027. He attributes the hawkish stance to a resilient labor market,...
Today's Brent Mirrors 2014 Levels After Inflation Adjustments
Dated Brent was at ~$105 in April 2014, before the BIG shale-induced rout in crude prices. Adjusting for inflation, that's roughly where we are today. And the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. (Also the lapsed appropriations note at the bottom of the BLS'...
Eurozone PMI Slips to 50.7, Weighing on European Stocks as Oil Rises
The eurozone composite PMI dropped to 50.7 in March, its weakest reading in eight months, as Middle‑East war‑driven energy costs surge. The data, released alongside Spain’s services PMI forecast of 50.7, has pressured European equities, with analysts warning that higher...
Ethiopia’s Birr Slumps 107% as Fertilizer and Fuel Costs Surge, Threatening Record Wheat Harvest
Ethiopia’s birr has lost roughly 107% of its value against the dollar since July 2024, pushing fertilizer prices up 60% and fuel up 56%. The surge in input costs threatens to erode gains from a projected record 7 million‑metric‑ton wheat harvest...
India's FY27 Growth Forecast Cut to 6.8‑6.9% Amid Energy Shock and Middle East Conflict
ICICI Bank trimmed its FY27 GDP projection for India to 6.8‑6.9% from 7.2%, while Moody's downgraded its own estimate to 6% from 6.8%. Both agencies cite the ongoing West Asia war, soaring oil prices and constrained LPG and LNG supplies...
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast projects March headline CPI rising at an annualized quarter‑on‑quarter rate of 5.2%‑5.9%, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast blends recent CPI and PCE releases with daily oil and gasoline price data, indicating inflation remains...
Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Iran War Price Pressure
Consumer inflation expectations surged to 3.4% for the next year in March, driven by a 9.4% anticipated rise in gasoline prices amid heightened geopolitical tension with Iran. The New York Fed reported wage‑growth expectations slipping to 2.4%, the lowest since...
Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast model indicates that March’s month‑over‑month CPI rose 0.84%, the strongest increase since June 2022, while core PCE inflation is projected at 0.23%. Market pricing on CME’s FedWatch shows a 63.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will...
Freedom of Navigation May Not Return to the Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump hinted that the United States could begin charging tolls for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz once the Iran conflict ends, arguing that America’s victory justifies taking over Iran’s existing tolling system. The proposed fees could reach...
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Last Years’ Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...
Open Hormuz Strait Triggers Massive Eastward Market Rush
If the Strait of Hormuz is open, get ready to watch for a stampede to the East. https://t.co/3rohg52Jti
Muhlenkamp Quarterly Market Commentary – April 2026
U.S. and Israeli forces resumed combat against Iran in late February, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and launch missile strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. The conflict lifted crude oil to about $102 per barrel, boosted the DXY...
SPX Gains 2% Post‑Ceasefire, Reclaims 200‑Day SMA
Big 2% rally from the $SPX after-hours following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US/Israel and Iran. Back above the 200-day SMA. Now the burden is on markets to capitalize on the 'good news' https://t.co/djEZLD8zgj
Iran Agrees to Ceasefire, Reopening Strait of Hormuz Soon
*IRAN ACCEPTS PAKISTAN'S TWO-WEEK CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL: NYT -- "ceasefire will come into force when Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz" -- So, this chart will be at zero tomorrow, and ships can start moving immediately? https://t.co/3VFPp2rq6x
CBP Building Centralized Refund System for IEEPA Tariff Duties
U.S. Customs and Border Protection is creating a centralized, web‑based system to refund duties collected under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs that the Supreme Court invalidated in February. The new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries platform will...
Iran Claims Open Strait, Demands Payment; Trump Disagrees
And this is why it’s hard to believe that Iran has agreed to not regulate passage at this point because it’s Irans primary leverage. In Irans eyes the strait IS open—you just have to pay them & the insurance companies....
$2 Million Toll
and the new point of contention? the $2 million+ tolls on traversing the Strait of Hormuz?
Russia, China Block Hormuz Action at UN as Shipping Crisis Continues
The UN Security Council failed to adopt a Gulf‑backed resolution protecting navigation through the Strait of Hormuz after Russia and China vetoed it, exposing stark geopolitical rifts. The draft, backed by the United States, the United Kingdom and Gulf states,...
Oil Slumps 12% After Trump‑Iran Ceasefire Opens Hormuz
Oil prices plummet 12% (and counting) after Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran 🇺🇸 🤝 🇮🇷 The deal is subject to an immediate opening of Hormuz https://t.co/idSwDqTWxx
No One Cares if Oil Passes the Strait
I guess there's zero interest in whether oil is actually going to move through strait unobstructed ...
Iranians Face More Chaos as New Year Begins and Trump Sharpens Threat
Iranians returned to work after the Nowruz holidays to the sound of fighter jets, as domestic unrest intensifies. President Donald Trump escalated U.S. rhetoric, warning of a possible annihilation of Iran. The heightened military presence follows recent airstrikes on Tehran...
Fed Dovish Shift Boosts Bullish Momentum, Watch ES
The Fed's dovish shift is music to bulls' ears as inflation continues cooling. Markets are already pricing in easier monetary policy ahead. Tomorrow we'll be watching how ES reacts to this momentum using our DOTS indicator for precise entries. https://t.co/66dSROf2rQ...
IMF to Slash Global Growth Forecast Amid Iran War
The IMF is poised to cut its forecasts for global growth as a result of the Iran war, and sees danger in a world economy that’s ill-equipped to respond to shocks, the Kristalina Georgieva says https://t.co/KcfFIhk4sU via @jdorosario @sdonnan https://t.co/1P3OgECM3e
BANK ROLLED
In early April, Polymarket odds rose that the Iran‑backed Houthis would close Bab al‑Mandab and resume Red Sea attacks, but the author argues those odds are inflated. Since the February 2026 U.S.–Israeli airstrikes forced the closure of the Strait of...
Strait Closure Fuels Market Drag; Iran Refuses Leverage Trade‑off
Two points that remain top of mind for me. How do you solve these? 1. Delays that don't open the Strait keeps negative carry on the stock market https://t.co/xqJjSx51rF 2. Iran is not going to open the Strait for a ceasefire and forego...
China Vetoes Iran Resolution, Says It Ignores Root Cause
The Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations explains why China vetoed the UN Security Council condemning Iran for closing the Strait of Hormuz: “The resolution does not even touch the root cause of this situation… “ https://t.co/6uKTQNN5Uz
IMF Flags Rising Imbalances, Revives Currency Manipulation Label
Happy to see the IMF has noticed the expansion of global current account imbalances -- And guess what, the IMF seems to have rediscovered the idea that currency manipulation can drive imbalances (though manipulation has been renamed "macro-industrial policy" ......
Iran's Oil Flow Restored, Excluding Genocide Coalition
Just as Iran was taken out of SWIFT money traffic in 2011, the coalition of genocide has been taken out of HORMUZ Oil traffic. The Strait remains wide open for those nations who PAY and those who are not participating in...
Iran Strikes Saudi Petrochemical Plant, U.S. Media Silent
Whoa I missed this: Saudi Arabian petrochemical plant struck by Iran at Jubail Industrial City Not reported in mainstream U.S. press but from sources generally accurate (AFP, by way of Times of Israel) https://t.co/5PXGglvqpg
Iran Deal Won’t Reverse Permanent Economic Damage
Even a quick Iran deal won't undo the damage already done. Stock losses, years of elevated oil prices, and a $350B defense budget increase that quietly translates to $3–4K in added taxes per household. The economy doesn't just snap back. Some of...
Oil Benchmark Hits Record, Reflecting Iran War Shortages
A key benchmark for physical oil has surged to its highest level on record, showing that global crude markets are increasingly pricing in supply shortages caused by the Iran war. https://t.co/OCII5LIP6Z https://t.co/V7iFSd47Gu
Pakistan Urges Iran to Reopen Hormuz, Pause Fighting
🚨 Pakistan requesting Iran: ➡️ Open straight of Hormuz for 2 weeks ➡️ Ceasefire for two weeks ➡️ Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks ➡️ Meanwhile, Iranian official tells Reuters: exchanges via mediators still ongoing (😇 this morning it was cutoff?)
China’s Reported Exports to US Dwarf Imports Post‑301 Tariffs
Indeed, an important question -- Ever since the 301 tariffs were introduced, the exports that China reports to the US have far exceeded US imports -- and now the gap is exceptionally big 1/3 https://t.co/b1eDSKKtRz