Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Iranians Face More Chaos as New Year Begins and Trump Sharpens Threat
Iranians returned to work after the Nowruz holidays to the sound of fighter jets, as domestic unrest intensifies. President Donald Trump escalated U.S. rhetoric, warning of a possible annihilation of Iran. The heightened military presence follows recent airstrikes on Tehran targets, including Sharif University. Economic strain and political repression are fueling widespread chaos across the country.
BANK ROLLED
In early April, Polymarket odds rose that the Iran‑backed Houthis would close Bab al‑Mandab and resume Red Sea attacks, but the author argues those odds are inflated. Since the February 2026 U.S.–Israeli airstrikes forced the closure of the Strait of...
13 Everyday Items Getting More Expensive Because of the Iran War
The Iran‑Israel conflict has tightened the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global oil prices higher and sending U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon for the first time in four years. Diesel now exceeds $5 per gallon, inflating transportation costs for food,...
Iran's Oil Revenues Soar Amid War-Driven Price Spikes
My view on Iran's surge in revenues since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran with @CoffeeandaMike: "Since the war started, the Iranians have been shipping a lot more crude out of the Strait of Hormuz, they've been selling at...
Global Outlook: War Inflation to Spark Higher Interest Rates
In this episode, ComBank’s host Mandy Drury and head of Forex, International and Geoeconomics Joe Caperso dissect the global fallout from the Middle‑East war, focusing on soaring oil prices, higher fertilizer costs and their ripple effects on inflation and interest...
China’s Emergence as a Backroom Mediator
China’s foreign ministry announced that Beijing helped broker a temporary cease‑fire between Pakistan and Afghanistan after senior officials met in Urumqi on April 2. The conflict, which has claimed 800‑1,000 lives, saw Pakistan report killing 796 Taliban fighters and destroying dozens...
'All Roads' Lead to Higher Prices: IMF Chief Sounds Dire Warning on Iran
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the Iran‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz has slashed global oil supply by roughly 13%, igniting a new wave of higher prices and slower growth. The shock is spilling into downstream markets...
Unions Prepare for UK Public Sector Pay Push as Inflation Bites
UK trade unions representing public‑sector workers are mobilising for a coordinated pay push as consumer‑price inflation hovers around 6%, eroding real wages. They are demanding wage settlements that at least match the inflation rate, warning that without adequate increases staff...
Daily Energy Report
The April 7, 2026 Daily Energy Report updates Western Canada’s crude export mix, showing Asian markets—especially China—still dominate shipments. China accounts for more than half of the total volume, while the United States’ western region sees fluctuating deliveries between 80,000 and 180,000...
Unseen Momentum Could Be Mounting Behind the Yuan
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff warns the Chinese yuan could become a global reserve currency within five years, challenging the U.S. dollar’s entrenched position. The dollar still processes about 58% of international transactions, while the yuan accounts for roughly 2% of...
Fertilizer Spike Adds up to $35/Acre for US Corn as Iran Crisis Deepens
Rising fertilizer prices triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a sharp supply shock for nitrogen, phosphate and sulfur products. Rabobank estimates the urea price surge adds up to $35 per acre to US corn...
China and Russia Veto UN Resolution on Strait of Hormuz
The United Nations Security Council failed to adopt a draft resolution on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz after China and Russia exercised their vetoes on 7 April 2026. The text, championed by Bahrain and Gulf Cooperation Council members,...
The Iran War Is Disrupting More Than Oil. Here’s What Could Get Expensive Next
The Iran‑Israel conflict is rippling through global commodity markets, pushing aluminum, helium, fertilizer, sulfur and plastics into shortage zones. Since February, aluminum has risen about 12% to $3,411 per metric ton after attacks on Middle‑East smelters, while helium supplies are...
Geopolitics, Inflation, & Crypto Resilience: What Advisors Need to Know
Markets faced heightened volatility as Gulf tensions revived oil price spikes and strained bond markets. The Federal Reserve confronts a mixed inflation picture, with the ISM manufacturing index hitting a four‑year high driven by input‑cost pressures, limiting rate‑cut flexibility. Meanwhile,...
Trump's Iran Threat Likely Triggers Market Decline
US - IRAN war update 💣 Big Threat by Trump 🚨 As expected - Market will react negatively 🔻⚠️ @champ_trader
What Happens Next
U.S. economic data for March showed continued manufacturing expansion and a surprisingly strong labor market despite ongoing Middle East tensions. The ISM Manufacturing index rose to 52.7, marking the third consecutive month above the neutral 50 threshold. Non‑farm payrolls increased...
EIA: Brent Crude to Reach $115/Bbl in Second-Quarter 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude will climb to about $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, up from a March average of $103. The rise reflects a sharp tightening in supply as Gulf producers curtail...
We’re Heading for a Financial Crisis - Liam Halligan
In this episode, economist Liam Halligan warns that the UK is on a path toward a financial crisis, driven by soaring debt‑interest payments, record‑high gilt yields and a tax burden at its highest level since 1948. He explains how the...
Understanding the War in Iran: A Private Discussion with Geopolitical Dispatch Experts
In a private roundtable, Geopolitical Dispatch experts dissected the Iran war, tracing its roots to a disputed election that ignited mass protests and a harsh government crackdown. They examined how regional rivals and global powers—Russia, China, the United States, and...
Iran War: Russia and China Veto UN Resolution to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after the draft was watered down to avoid their opposition. The vote was 11‑2, with Pakistan and Colombia abstaining, following President Trump’s threat to...
Hisham Ezz Al-Arab: Period of Transition
Egypt’s private sector now drives 78% of GDP and generated 94% of exports in 2023, with private investment hitting a record 65% of total capital. The government aims to boost private investment above 70% by 2030 and will list 20...
Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Trump's Deadline to Reopen Hormuz
Oil prices surged on April 7 as President Donald Trump set a final deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing U.S. WTI up 3.9% to $116.83 a barrel and Brent to $110.55. The heightened geopolitical risk dragged the...
Key Fed Official Says Interest Rate Hike Is Possible as Gas Prices Soar
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that soaring gasoline prices, now $4.14 per gallon, could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates if inflation remains stubborn. The Fed has kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.5‑3.75% since December, but...
Trump Blames Greenland for NATO Breakup
the unnecessary origin story of trump's nato breakup, in his own words: "it all began with greenland."
Why Energy Has Become a Foreign-Policy Weapon
The article argues that energy has re‑emerged as a potent foreign‑policy weapon, highlighted by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz which removes roughly 10 million barrels of oil and 20% of global LNG capacity from the market. Prices have surged—oil...
Rapid US Rally Could Trigger Dollar Spike and Inflation
The risk nobody speaks about. Everyone wants a V-shape recovery. I don’t. If US stocks snap back too fast, hedge funds in Europe, Japan, Brazil sell everything locally and rush into the US. Dollar spikes to 110. Inflation restarts. What I want: slow...
European Central Bank Official: 'Fossil Fuel Dependence Poses Risks to Price Stability'
ECB board member Frank Elderson warned that Europe’s dependence on oil, gas and coal heightens inflation risks and complicates the central bank’s price‑stability mandate. He argued that volatile energy markets, amplified by geopolitical tensions such as the Iran and Ukraine...
Impending Bahrain Conflict Could Trigger Oil Market Catastrophe
I sat down with @JoshYoung, CIO of Bison Interests - the fund that returned 349% in a single year on oil. He told me this war is far from over. And the real crisis hasn't even started. "I don't think the market...
The Iran War Is Coming for Your Social Security
The author warns that a war involving Iran could destabilize the petrodollar system, the cornerstone of U.S. Treasury financing. By threatening the dollar’s dominance in global oil markets, the conflict could undermine the fiscal foundation that supports Social Security, Medicare...
UK Strikes Lucrative Organic Livestock Deal with Japan
The United Kingdom and Japan have signed an organic livestock equivalency agreement, allowing British producers to sell certified meat and dairy products in Japan with a single UK certification. The deal opens access to Japan’s fast‑growing organic market, valued at...
US-Iran Talks Continuing, But Strikes on Saudi Arabia May Derail Effort, Say Sources
U.S. and Iran are engaged in high‑stakes talks mediated by Pakistan, but Tehran’s overnight strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex threatens to derail the negotiations. President Trump has given Iran a deadline of 8 p.m. Washington time to lift its...
Tuesday - April 7, 2026
In this brief market commentary, host Brian Seitel reviews the low‑volume trading day, noting a 1% market decline driven by geopolitical tension over the Strait of Hormuz and modest rises in yields and oil prices. He shifts focus to corporate...
India Unlocks Market Access to Canada for Fresh Mangoes, Pomegranates, Oranges, and Garlic
India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) has released a phytosanitary protocol that unlocks Canadian market access for fresh mangoes, pomegranates, oranges and garlic. The Canadian National Plant Protection Organization approved the access in January, but shipments...
Trump: "A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight" If Iran Does Not Reach a Deal to Open the Strait of Hormuz
Former President Donald Trump warned that a failure to secure an Iranian agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a catastrophic energy crisis. The United States delivered a 15‑point peace plan via Pakistan on March 25, demanding concessions...
USTR Greer: USMCA Can Remain a Trilateral Deal and Handle Bilateral Issues
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told a Hudson Institute audience that the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement can remain a trilateral framework while adding separate bilateral protocols for Mexico and Canada. The upcoming USMCA review, kicking off on July 1, will address grievances such...
The Philippine’s Strategic Dilemma in the Shadow of Middle East Conflict
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency as the U.S.-Iran war disrupted oil supplies, leaving the country with roughly 50 days of fuel reserves. Manila secured preferential access to Iranian crude and sought U.S. waivers to import...
Middle East: Key Trends Shaping 2026
The US‑Israeli war with Iran has plunged the Middle East into its deepest crisis in decades, rattling Gulf economies, global oil markets and supply chains. Prior to the escalation, GCC growth was outpacing the world, with Qatar at 6.1% and...
Trump's Iran Threat Drives Treasury Volatility, Long Bonds Lag
Trump’s Iran ultimatum is basically the only story for bond traders today. USTs have seen a volatile morning, swinging back and forth in reaction to the news and moves in crude oil prices. They are now recovering from the early...
China’s Reported Exports to US Dwarf Imports Post‑301 Tariffs
Indeed, an important question -- Ever since the 301 tariffs were introduced, the exports that China reports to the US have far exceeded US imports -- and now the gap is exceptionally big 1/3 https://t.co/b1eDSKKtRz
Container Vessel Reports Being Hit Off Iran
A fourth containership was struck about 25 nautical miles off Kish Island, near the northwestern entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, marking a rapid escalation of attacks in the Persian Gulf. The vessel sustained damage above the waterline but the...
Firms Use Legal and Illegal Tactics to Dodge US Tariffs
In today's thrilling episode of "least surprising tariff news ever", the NYT reports that firms have reacted to historically high and complex US tariffs by engaging in lawful and unlawful ways to avoid paying them. Shocked, shocked, etc etc. https://t.co/f7tZuI7dgo
Oil Shock Dampened: Prices Below Peaks, Economy Decouples
So far this oil shock is not quite at the level of previous shocks. 1. Inflation adjusted, prices still aren't at their highest 2. The world's economy is less coupled to oil than in years past.
Jeffrey Sherman on Oil, Deficits and the Private Credit Liquidity Trap | Bloomberg
Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine’s deputy CIO, warned that rising oil prices and energy‑sector infrastructure damage could sustain inflation longer than markets expect, pressuring global growth. He argued that higher energy costs function as a de‑facto monetary tightening, reducing the likelihood of...
Trump Admin Warned of $200 Oil, Brent Hits $144
Two weeks ago, we scooped that the Trump administration was modeling the impact of oil prices reaching as high as $200 a barrel due to the #IranWar. Dated Brent oil just hit a record about $144...
Inflation‑Adjusted Six‑Month Futures Spread Near Record
"After adjusting for inflation, the six-month futures spread is on course to exceed the previous record set in October 1990, after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and as the United States and its allies massed forces in the Gulf." @JKempEnergy https://t.co/26TVbx2H9d
Iran Strikes Saudi’s Key Industrial Hub, Al Jubail.
After being attacked, Iran has counterattacked. Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting Al Jubail Industrial City in Saudi Arabia. Jubail has 150 industrial facilities and 2 oil refineries accounting for 25% of Saudi refining capacity. https://t.co/7mXVOrYTVW
Chinese Sulphur Prices Surge Daily, Threatening Food Costs
I repeat, Chinese sulphur prices are up literally every day (save two) since war began. 24/26 Odds of this happening (if this was a coin flip) are 1 in ~200,000 This will have consequences for fertilizer and therefore food prices. 1/3
First Sale Metrics Reveal Tariff Impact on Retailers
The reality of dealing with the Trump tariffs. Import value. First Sale. Maybe Last Sale, if it happens. Does using First Sale reflect the size of the retailer? And manufacturers?
Iran's Antifragile Tactics Undermine US War Strategy
The Iran war is going badly for the US It pressures targets with brute force Iran absorbs, adapts & pushes the pressure into the global economy That’s antifragile This doesn’t end well for the US unless the approach changes LINK👇 https://t.co/ggyDr16zPe #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Systems
Build Global Energy Corridors to Bypass Hormuz, Says Hochstein
".... The only long-term solution is new infrastructure—making a massive, internationally coordinated investment in energy corridors that bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely... " -- @amoshochstein https://t.co/hvu4ACTwok