Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
SK Hynix announced an additional 21.6 trillion won ($15 bn) investment to expand its first semiconductor fab in Yongin, raising the total spend to 31 trillion won. The funding, slated for March 2026‑December 2030, will add five clean rooms, bringing the site to six and moving the first clean‑room start‑up to February 2027. The expansion targets soaring AI, data‑center and high‑performance computing chip demand. It dovetails with South Korea’s ambition to achieve 50% supply‑chain self‑sufficiency and capture 10% of the global market by 2030.
Belgian shipowner CMB.TECH has secured five five‑year charters for its capesize bulkers, adding $304 million in revenue and lifting its contract backlog to roughly $3.05 billion. The deals, which start in the coming months, include vessels built between 2014 and 2018 and...
The Conference Board reported that the Global Leading Economic Index (LEI) held steady at 0.0% in December, marking the first month of flat growth since the index’s inception. Major economies displayed mixed signals: the United States slipped 0.2%, China declined...
It means a lot less than this. As an export market China is way less important than the US to Germany/ the EA. As a source of consumer & intermediate inputs China is of course a massive supplier,...
Asia stocks rally: Japan & S.Korea hit records as Nvidia lifts chipmakers; China/HK mixed, BOJ inflation data a risk. Trade: buy Korean memory names on pullbacks. 📈 — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Federal Reserve officials signaled that the current policy rate is appropriately balanced, with St. Louis Fed President Albert Musalem noting no immediate need for cuts. Musalem warned that a rise in layoffs combined with weak job creation could tip the labor...
Southeast Asian super‑app Grab reported its first full‑year profit in 2025, posting a $200 million net gain after narrowing losses from $1.7 billion in 2022 to $158 million in 2024. Revenue climbed roughly 20% to $3.4 billion as transaction volume rose 21% to $22 billion...
Investor demand for U.S. corporate bonds has surged to historic levels, making new issuances harder to access and allocations tighter. Barclays’ analysis of TRACE data shows competition in investment‑grade debt is up 15% and high‑yield debt up 30% compared with...
The New Zealand dollar extended its rally for a third straight session, hovering around the 0.6000 level against the US dollar during Asian trading. The move reflects pressure on the US dollar as President Trump defended tariffs and the IMF warned...
Macro: Big-ticket cloud/AI capital flows concentrate. Key: Amazon pledges $15bn now, $35bn tied to IPO/AGI. Risks: valuation/tech execution. Trading insight: Buy NVDA on AI infra demand. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
South Sudan is redirecting most of its import‑export cargo from Kenya’s congested Mombasa port to Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam and Tanga terminals after a bilateral agreement. The shift follows persistent delays, a $5,000 security levy per container, and higher handling...
Kenya and Uganda are overhauling Sacco regulations after a series of collapses and fraud that have eroded member confidence. In Kenya, the Kuscco scandal exposed a $103 million loss, prompting a committee to recommend raising the minimum membership to 100 and...
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to around 97.50 during Asian trading, marking a second straight session of decline amid White House policy doubts. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks defended and expanded Section 122 tariffs to 10 %, adding trade‑related...
Global Market Update: Gift Nifty +53.00 (0.21%) 25,672.50 DowJones +307.77 (+0.63%) 49,482.27 Nasdaq +288.40 (+1.26%) 23,152.08 India Vix -0.6875 (-4.86%) 13.4625 S&P 500 +56.07 (+0.81%) 6,946.14
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to Trump’s threats and tariffs, Modi has pivoted and opened India’s doors to Japan, Brazil, Canada & the EU. MODI IS FASTER ON HIS FEET THAN YOU THINK. https://t.co/I5SCjNBPfI
The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) has publicly opposed the government’s plan to halve the capital gains tax (CGT) discount from 50 % to 25 %. REIA argues the cut will force landlords to raise rents to offset lower after‑tax returns,...
I actually don't think Mark and I are that far apart (tho I wouldn't start by arguing that a BoP deficit is meaningless, as I certainly find value in some cuts of the balance of payments + get annoyed when...
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have added a sizable risk premium to oil, pushing Brent into the low‑70s and sparking forecasts of $100 per barrel if conflict escalates. The surge has lifted the STOXX Europe 600 Oil...
Supreme Court ruled the administration lacked authority under IEEPA to impose global tariffs, instantly invalidating duties ranging from 10 % to 50 %. The decision leaves $130 billion in collected tariffs without an approved refund process, while Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs remain in...
The BIS Triennial Survey shows global foreign‑exchange turnover jumped to US$9.5 trillion per day in April 2025, a 27 % rise driven by heightened volatility, hedging and speculative activity. Spot and outright forwards led the surge, while currency‑option turnover more than doubled and...
The February 2026 bulletin outlines three post‑pandemic credit‑market shifts that have eased financial conditions: bank‑funding cost spreads fell about 70 basis points, variable mortgage‑rate spreads narrowed roughly 65 basis points, and business‑credit supply expanded with non‑bank lenders gaining market share. These...
Australia is gradually aligning with the G20 Roadmap for cross‑border payments, having met the universal access target but still falling short on cost, speed and transparency goals. Bank‑based transfers to advanced economies cost about 4 % for a A$1,000 payment, while...
Central Asian states recognize an urgent water shortage as they pursue water‑intensive projects like nuclear plants, data centers and expanded mining. Upstream nations Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan control most supplies, while downstream Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan depend on irrigation, creating a...
Turkey’s state‑owned TPAO and Britain’s BP have signed a comprehensive oil and gas cooperation agreement targeting Iraq’s Kirkuk basin. TPAO aims to lift 500,000 barrels per day by 2028, while BP’s initial target is 328,000 barrels per day, with plans...
The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy signals a new soft‑power push, funding MAGA‑aligned think tanks in the UK and Europe while tech oligarchs pour record sums into political campaigns. By the end of 2025, US‑backed donors contributed $429 million to...
Recent randomized surveys of US policymakers and scientists reveal a pronounced “China penalty” in grant evaluations. When the only variable changed is the collaborator’s nationality, support for US‑China proposals drops sharply compared with identical US‑Germany proposals, with unconditional approval falling...
The CIA has launched a new Farsi‑language recruitment campaign on X, Instagram, Facebook, Telegram and YouTube, urging Iranians to contact the agency using disposable devices and trusted VPNs. The guidance stresses operational security, recommending Tor and non‑Russian/Chinese VPNs. The effort...
Trump's Bullying of IEA a Wake-up Call for Canada Energy Sec Chris Wright: Stop promoting net-zero or US will pull out of iea. Canada needs data, modelling for trade negotiations, policy. Where will Mark Carney Carney get it? Our own economists. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/DhE1Gfoh-yY
U.S. Vice President JD Vance announced that Washington has identified evidence Iran is attempting to rebuild its nuclear weapons capability after June U.S.-led strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Vance reiterated that Iran must not acquire a nuclear bomb, framing the...
The Arctic is emerging as a strategic frontier for energy, trade and security, as melting ice unlocks vast hydrocarbon and critical‑mineral deposits and shortens shipping lanes. Russia controls more than half the Arctic coastline and is modernizing its military presence,...
Soybeans and corn rallied on short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar, lifting both grain complexes despite mixed weather signals. Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing, but export forecasts were trimmed to 10.69 million tons, while Argentina’s rain benefits later‑planted beans. Traders...
India has re‑asserted Sri Lanka as its most dependable South Asian partner through swift humanitarian aid after Cyclone Ditwah and a $4 billion financial lifeline during the 2022 debt crisis. Operation Sagar Bandhu delivered $450 million in disaster relief without adding to Colombo’s debt burden, while...
This is a thread that only Adam Tooze, a few international economist and a couple of very well paid trade lawyers are likely to enjoy … The basic question is what did Congress mean back in 1975 when they wrote about...
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is leading a week‑long trade mission to India, concentrating on agriculture, potash and uranium. The trip coincides with the Raisina Dialogue and runs alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Moe aims...
Just a reminder. With the KOSPI all but a semiconductor ETF in drag, tonight's Nvidia news will have serious global ripples.
The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now. #ukrainewar #starlink #geopolitics https://t.co/C4sJyTga9A
MEPs have pressed the European Commission to clarify how the Global Gateway initiative raised its claimed €306 billion in financing. They highlight a stark gap between the €150 billion projected for Africa and the under €10 billion actually earmarked as EU guarantees. The...
Is this still a K-shaped economy? This was a hot topic of conversation at the #NABE conference this week. In 2026, I told @hdubroff that I see more of "E" shaped economy. https://t.co/rYUsXmGuCy https://t.co/JHiwnPutqZ
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
Shippers continue to place purchase orders with Asian factories despite ongoing tariff uncertainty, according to Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka. January TEU volumes fell about 12% year‑over‑year, with imports down 13% and exports down 8%, while empty...
Germany joining the chorus call for China to allow the RMB to rise -- a big change from 15 years ago, when Germany didn't think China's currency management was its problem https://t.co/1J5Z0lrxma
Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure: Local, state & federal fiscal policy shaved 1 pct pt from GDP growth in Q4. We expect it will be *add* 2.6 pts in Q1 as effects of shutdown are reversed, will be roughly neutral...
The United States and Mexico have launched a new financial‑intelligence partnership to curb the money that fuels drug cartels, highlighted by the recent killing of Jalisco New Generation leader El Mencho. Mexico’s Financial Intelligence Unit and banking regulator have shifted toward...
Most EM currencies are managing to rally strongly against the Dollar so far in 2026. Turkish Lira is falling and the worst performer. This despite annual carry of over 30%. The fact that Lira is still falling is a sign...
FYI: as we wait to see if the Trump Administration will move forward with direct attacks on Iran, this is US Dollar - Iranian Rial exchange rate. The reversion to a float since the beginning of the year does not...
Outgoing Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic signals greater concern about the institution's independence than the more anodyne statements typically offered by his colleagues when the subject comes up He says there's an ongoing threat and the outcome is genuinely uncertain https://t.co/ntwkE73UgE
The Dollar is tumbling. Not against the G10, where it's basically stable, but against EM, where it's making new lows almost every day. One of the main beneficiaries of all this is the Brazilian Real, which is the strongest versus...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Iranian rial ranks as the WORLD'S 3RD WORST CURRENCY. The rial has depreciated by 43% against the USD over the past year. RIAL = IN REAL BIG TROUBLE. https://t.co/FmVN6Cuf8I
Interesting research paper from the BIS and Bank of Korea on the interplay between excessive household debt and consumer spending https://t.co/inCiWR5V6F
