Today's Global Economy Pulse
Fed's Kashkari warns inflation remains far too high
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC that headline CPI was 3.8% in April and core CPI rose 2.8% year‑over‑year. He said the persistent price pressure could unanchor consumer expectations and may force the Federal Reserve to act more aggressively.
Daily Bulletin...
The Trump administration announced the launch of a $166 billion tariff refund program. The initiative follows a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down a series of tariffs on imported goods. Treasury officials will begin processing claims from importers who paid the now‑void duties. The refunds are intended to ease cash‑flow pressures on businesses hit by the previous tariffs.
Tiny Triggers Can Jeopardize $110 Trillion Economy
turns out it doesn’t take much to hold a $110 trillion global economy at risk.
Xi Wants Strait of Hormuz Opened; NDRC Head on Security and Development; Cake Order Leads to Huge Fines; Solar Industry...
President Xi Jinping, in a call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, urged an immediate ceasefire and emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open for normal passage. The Chinese readout framed the strait’s uninterrupted flow as serving...
Treasury Sec Paulson: US Needs Emergency "Break The Glass Plan" Ready To Deal With Dumped Treasuries & Spiking Interest Rates
Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned that the United States needs an emergency “break‑the‑glass” plan to address a possible flood of Treasury sales and rapidly rising interest rates. He linked the threat to a potential erosion of the petrodollar system...
Aizenman, Desbordes and Saadaoui: Quantifying Trade Destruction From Bombs & Bullets Vs. Taxes and Sanctions
Researchers Aizenman, Desbordes and Saadaoui present a new monthly bilateral conflict index built from calibrated GDELT event data. The decomposition isolates four layers—kinetic fighting, military posture, trade‑context hostility, and baseline diplomacy—and shows that only kinetic conflict and trade‑related hostility significantly...
Using the USMCA Review to Strengthen Regional Integration
The US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement is slated for a 2026 review, prompting a Binational Task Force to propose concrete reforms. Steel and automotive sectors remain flashpoints, with Section 232 steel tariffs now at 50% and long‑standing disputes over rules of origin. The task...
California’s Oil Decline Forces Costly Imports and Shortages
For a mix of reasons, California has decimated its local oil production. As a result, it’s now producing only about 300,000 barrels a day. But as the economy grows and the population expands, oil demand continues to rise. The state...
Canadian Inflation Comments
Canada’s gasoline prices have risen to roughly C$2 per litre (about US$1.48) in the Greater Montreal area, prompting the federal government to suspend the gasoline excise tax on April 14, shaving about C$0.11 per litre (≈US$0.08). Core consumer‑price inflation remains above...
House Lawmakers Call for Rice-Specific Trade Investigation
A bipartisan group of 17 House members urged U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to launch a Section 301 investigation targeting unfair practices in global rice markets. The lawmakers cited subsidized imports from India, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Brazil and the EU as threats...
MPS Unveils Q1 2026 Multi‑Asset Fund Update and Outlook in Live Webinar
MPS Wealth Management announced a live, CPD‑accredited webinar on April 22 to deliver its Q1 2026 performance update for the Multi‑Asset Fund and outline the global market outlook. The session will be hosted by George Bromfield, Head of Adviser Solutions,...
Where Investment Themes Intersect and Beat Markets
In this episode, Stephen Byrd reviews how Morgan Stanley's ten thematic predictions for 2026 are unfolding, highlighting the rapid acceleration of AI, its soaring compute demand, and its transformative impact on the labor market. He links AI's growth to a...
Seaborne Crude Oil Shipments Plunge 16% as Iran War Chokes Strait of Hormuz
BIMCO reports that global seaborne crude oil shipments have dropped 16% since the Iran war began, trimming daily volumes by 7.6 million barrels to 38.4 mbpd. The decline reflects the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz and limited offsetting exports from other...
UAE Seeks U.S. Dollar Swap Line as Iran Conflict Threatens Liquidity
UAE Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama met U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington to propose a dollar‑denominated currency‑swap line that would give the Gulf state cheap access to U.S. dollars if the war with Iran deepens. The talks...
Wells Fargo's Scharf: Lowering Rates Is 'Wrong Thing to Do'
Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf told a Washington audience that cutting interest rates now would be “the wrong thing to do” given the heightened uncertainty from the ongoing Iran war. He highlighted that loan demand remains robust, delinquencies are low, and...
IMF Endorses Nigeria's $5.8 B Banking Recapitalisation, Boosting Financial Resilience
The International Monetary Fund has formally endorsed Nigeria’s $5.8 billion banking sector recapitalisation completed in March 2026, saying the higher capital buffers enhance resilience against global shocks. The move, led by Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso, raised N4.65 trillion with 72.55% domestic...
Hormuz Tension Snaps Nasdaq Win Streak: Stock Market Today
Oil prices surged over 5% on Monday after a cease‑fire in the Strait of Hormuz collapsed, pushing WTI to $86.93 and Brent to $95.06 per barrel. The rally helped end the Nasdaq Composite’s 13‑session winning streak, with all three major...
China's 10‑Year Yield Slides to 1‑Month Low Near 1.75% Ahead of $2.2 Bn Hong Kong Bond Issue
China's 10‑year government bond yield dropped to roughly 1.75%, the lowest level in more than a month, reflecting market bets on continued accommodative policy from the People's Bank of China. The move comes as the central bank pledges to keep...
Asian Stocks Rise 0.8% as Investors Say Peak Uncertainty Passed Amid Middle East Tensions
Asian markets rallied on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gaining as much as 0.8% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index wiping out its recent losses. Investors said the worst of geopolitical risk appears priced in, allowing a return...
The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War
The United States’ war with Iran has pushed global oil and gas prices up more than a third, but American consumers feel only modest price increases while the rest of the world bears steep cost spikes. Polls show most Americans...
Some EM Debt May Be Getting More Attractive, Says Gramercy
Gramercy Capital notes that emerging‑market (EM) sovereign and corporate debt is becoming more attractive as elections in three major economies are likely to trigger structural reforms. The firm expects policy shifts to improve fiscal discipline, reduce currency volatility, and deepen...
Carney Markets Economic Independence Through Compelling Video
Carney Sells Economic Independence in Strong Video Performance Polsci prof @StewartPrest discusses PM MarkJCarney's "Forward Guidance" video. #cdnpoli https://youtu.be/gu9c_PrfRN8
Japan, Australia and a New Regional Order
The United States and China are set to meet at a high‑profile summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, a gathering that analysts say will reverberate across the Indo‑Pacific. Japan and Australia, both key U.S. allies, are closely monitoring...
The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War
President Trump’s preventive war on Iran has already driven up oil and gas prices, sparked an IMF‑cautioned recession risk, and cost 13 U.S. service members plus hundreds of casualties. Beyond the immediate toll, the conflict threatens to erode the U.S.–led...
Global Fibers for Nonwovens Under Pressure as US-Israel-Iran Conflict Drives Costs, Affects Supply
The global market for fibers used in nonwovens faced sharp cost pressure in March as the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict disrupted feedstock supplies, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. Naphtha price spikes pushed polymer costs higher, leading to 4‑11% price gains for...
The US Takes the Easy Road on China
The article argues that the United States is taking an overly soft stance toward China, concentrating on politically popular issues like Chinese land ownership while neglecting deeper strategic vulnerabilities. Recent Section 232 investigations into pharmaceuticals and semiconductors have produced limited...
This Unique TIPS ETF Is Earning Its Stripes
The WisdomTree Inflation Plus Fund (WTIP) is a one‑year‑old TIPS ETF that differentiates itself by blending Treasury Inflation‑Protected Securities with a dynamic commodities basket and a modest 2.66% bitcoin allocation. In the wake of the Iran‑related energy price surge, the...
How to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have prompted Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, sharply curtailing the daily flow of oil and gas through the world’s most critical chokepoint. The disruption is already feeding higher fuel prices for American...
Consumer Spending Plans Remain Muted: Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada’s first‑quarter 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows Canadians remain cautious about spending, with high price concerns and lingering job‑loss anxiety, especially in sectors vulnerable to AI. Inflation expectations stay above historical averages, driven largely by persistent...
EU Carbon Border Tariff Is Reshaping Industrial Trade Flows
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its pricing phase on Jan. 1, 2026, imposing certificates on imports of iron‑steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, hydrogen and electricity. Obligations are calculated from embedded emissions, market of origin and EU ETS prices, with default...
AI Firms Now Equal 0.1% of US GDP Each
New post w/ random thoughts on AI (thread) I will probably get a # wrong, but here we go :) 1/12 OpenAI & Anthropic now at 0.1% of US GDP *each* In a year, AI revenue likely to be 1-2% of US GDP What...
China’s Auto Export Surge Defies EU Tariffs
The second China shock isn't going to go away on its own, or with half measures -- China's auto exports to Europe, for example, have clearly reaccelerated (even with the narrowly targeted CVDs against battery electric imports) 1/ https://t.co/pdaadEXUrD
Iran War’s Sulfurous Fallout Spreads to Copper and Nickel – by Andy Home (Reuters – April 17, 2026)
The Iran‑Israel conflict has choked sulfur flow from the Gulf after the Strait of Hormuz closed on Feb. 28, triggering a global sulfur squeeze. Sulfuric acid, essential for solvent‑extraction copper and HPAL nickel processes, is now scarce as China, the world’s...
Extended Ceasefire Leaves 182M Barrels Off Market
Important to remember that, with 13 MMbpd in oil production still shut-in across the Gulf, a two week ceasefire extension with no change to the status of Hormuz means another 182 million barrels lost to the market. *Poof* Sooner or later that's...
Iran Risk Unpriced Amid High Oil, Demand Lag Threatens
Iran risk is not priced in from elevated oil prices or supply shocks. @HFI_Research wrote about lags that trigger potential demand hit if prolonged.
The Mineral Imperative, Trump, and The Art of the Deal – by Amanda Van Dyke (Substack – April 19, 2026)
Amanda van Dyke argues that while the United States has long relied on China for critical minerals, a new wave of legislation is reshaping the "mineral imperative" and strengthening domestic supply chains. Recent policies, including the Critical Minerals Act, aim...
Hormuz Blockade Drives Iran's Currency to Record Weakness
Read a good summary of the economic impact of the Hormuz blockade on Iran by Foreign Affairs. A good rudimentary reminder of the pressure is the exchange rate: USD/IRR is 1.320 mln and black market looks to be around 1.512...
Kevin Warsh: Potential First Tech‑Bro Fed Chair
A Fed chair of our own 😉! Kevin Warsh would be the first tech bro Fed chair. How #SiliconValley shaped Fed nominee Kevin Warsh. More from CNBC: https://t.co/RLxsAakgXV https://t.co/VC5HmdThld
Airfares up in March for the First Time in Nearly Two Years as Jet Fuel Prices Rise
Airfares in Canada rose 2.9% year‑over‑year in March, marking the first increase since June 2024. The monthly jump to 4.9% from February outpaced the 1.2% gain recorded in March 2025. National Bank analysts attribute the rise to a sharp spike...
Challenging Traditional Economic Policies and Assumptions
1. Having the government set airline prices was good. 2. Federal Reserve policy should be set by a Congressional committee. 3. Cost/benefit analysis of regulations is a scam. 4. A balanced Federal budget isn't a good idea when we have a trade...
Tariff Disaster Exposed: Kim Smith Holmes'
Superb statement of the tariff fiasco for the US Government by @kimsmithholmes - with appropriate horror and perspective
Warsh Commits to Monetary Policy Independence, Says President Expressing Views on Rates Isn't a Threat
Kevin Warsh, the President’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, told Senate bankers that monetary‑policy independence is essential, but he downplayed the risk posed by presidential commentary on interest rates. Warsh, a former Fed governor and former White House economic aide,...
Core PCE Inflation Projected at 2.2% by 2026
GS We Expect Core PCE Inflation Net of Tariff Effects to Fall to 2.2% by the End of 2026 https://t.co/ckLILK225L
Shadow Fleet Still Moves Despite US Trade Halt Claim
“While the US military says it has turned around over 20 vessels and ‘completely halted’ Iranian trade, Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows a steady flow of shadow fleet traffic in and out of the Middle East Gulf” Personally, I trust @TankerTrackers https://t.co/Uu0qgzUlPk
Mortgage Rates Drop 0.57% YoY, Spread Widens
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.30% Same day last year: 6.87% --------------- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.26 Spread today: 204 bps
Airlines Cite Iran, Fuel Costs for Taxpayer Bailouts
Airlines All Over The World Are Using Iran And Fuel Prices To Demand Taxpayer Bailouts - View from the Wing https://t.co/lkSYVLPiTi
Did the JCPOA Transfer Hormuz Control to Iran?
Hey, folks, remind me—did the JCPOA cede any go-forward control of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran? https://t.co/ioeUNlmi56
Central Banking's Power Spurs Redistribution or Revolution
The purpose of a system is what it does. Central Banking keeps centralizing power. The inevitable reaction to the centralization is redistributive policy or revolution. Which one will it be @RudyHavenstein ?? https://t.co/65VVPyx5OX
US Sanctions Waiver Fuels Russian Oil Gains Amid Iran Conflict
Why Russia is the big winner from the US-Iran war US sanctions waiver boosts Russian oil revenues https://t.co/uGny0kDGDL @DeutscheWelle
Pereira: Iran War's Economic Damage Still Unseen
ECB’s Pereira says the economic damage of Iran war has yet to show https://t.co/BXptMUK40T https://t.co/Kd8hPDCLGY
Italy Targets Sub‑3% Deficit Despite War‑driven Slowdown
Italy eyes deficit under 3% of GDP even as Iran war slows growth https://t.co/V0X5dmqBPv via @Alemrome @chiaraalbanese https://t.co/OqChsVFdrn