Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Europeans Tried to Win over the US This Week in DC. Their Efforts Were Lost in Translation.
European finance leaders gathered in Washington for the IMF‑World Bank spring meetings, aiming to rally U.S. support for the continent’s economic challenges, from the Iran war fallout to non‑bank lending risks. Their messaging, however, was eclipsed by U.S. focus on an economic rivalry with China and domestic AI growth. Officials highlighted a widening gap: Europe seeks deeper integration and growth, while Washington emphasizes growth‑linked stability and views EU initiatives with skepticism. The divergent narratives underscore a transatlantic relationship strained by competing priorities.
The Untold Story of Container Shipping
The post traces container shipping from its chaotic, labor‑intensive origins to the standardized, high‑volume system that now moves the bulk of global trade. It highlights Malcolm McLean’s 1950s breakthrough of using a single, stackable box to unite trucks and ships. The...
Fed Governor Waller Warns Middle East War Could Push Inflation Higher and Stall Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a university audience that the ongoing Middle East war, which has spiked global energy prices, could embed higher inflation and make a near‑term rate cut unlikely. He linked the geopolitical shock to the Fed’s...
Fitch Warns Iran-Israel War Spikes Energy Costs, Tightens Financing for Emerging Markets
Fitch Ratings warned on April 17 that the Iran‑Israel war is adding fresh pressure on emerging market sovereigns, pushing the net balance of outlooks to negative for the first time since the conflict began. Higher energy import costs, fiscal subsidy...
European Markets Open Cautiously as Middle East Tensions Loom, STOXX 600 Near 617 Points
European equity markets opened with modest moves on Friday, the STOXX Europe 600 slipping 0.04% to 616.71 points. Investors remained wary of unfolding Middle‑East events while corporate earnings season added a layer of uncertainty.
Philippines Revives Liguasan Marsh Drilling Push Amid Energy Crisis
Bangsamoro leaders are urging renewed oil and gas exploration in the 288,000‑hectare Liguasan Marsh, citing a potential 202 million barrels of crude and 6 billion cubic feet of gas as a lifeline for the Philippines’ energy‑import dependent economy. The move pits regional...
STI Dips 0.2% to 4,998 as Traders Await US‑Iran Ceasefire Extension
Singapore's Straits Times Index slipped 0.2% to 4,997.93 points on April 17, reflecting investor caution ahead of the April 21 deadline on the US‑Iran ceasefire extension. The market saw $2.1 billion in trades, while regional peers also retreated, underscoring the geopolitical...
Turkey Says US Withdrawal From European Security Architecture Could Be 'Destructive'
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan warned that a U.S. partial withdrawal from the European security architecture would be destructive if not coordinated. President Donald Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of NATO after European allies refused to...
Middle East Conflict Deepens Hunger in East Africa
The six‑week Iran‑Israel‑US war is choking fertilizer, fuel and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, driving a 68% surge in global urea prices and forcing East African farmers to cut or forgo planting for the 2026‑27 harvest. Higher input...
Trump Expects His Fed Chair Nominee to Cut Interest Rates. Here’s How Kevin Warsh Might Try to Do It.
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, signaling a push for lower interest rates. Warsh plans to offset a $1 trillion balance‑sheet reduction—an action he equates to a 50‑basis‑point rate hike—by cutting the federal‑funds rate,...
Brazil's Lula Calls on Permanent Members of UN Security Council to Change Behaviour
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used a progressive leaders summit in Barcelona to criticize the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, accusing them of failing to prevent the war in Iran. He warned against daily...
Iran’s Navy Tells Ships Strait of Hormuz Shut Again, Two Vessels Report Gunfire
Iran’s navy broadcast a VHF message declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed again, reversing a prior notice that allowed limited lanes. On Saturday, at least two commercial vessels reported gunfire from IRGC gunboats near the Qeshm and Larak islands, forcing...
Ukraine Strikes Two Russian Refineries, Baltic Sea Port
Ukrainian drone forces struck two oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region and set fire to the Vysotsk port terminal in the Leningrad region, according to local governors and Ukrainian officials. The attacks are part of a broader campaign that has...
Major Rare Earth Discoveries in Scandinavia Raise Hopes of Easing Europe’s Dependence on China
Historic rare‑earth discoveries in Norway and Sweden have dramatically expanded Europe’s domestic resource base. The Fensfeltet deposit in southern Norway was revised to 15.9 million tonnes of rare‑earth oxides, while Sweden’s Per Geijer and Norra Kärr sites together could satisfy up to 18%...
Emerging Market Outflows Near COVID Shock Levels
The past 7 weeks of conflict have seen capital outflows from EM that were almost as bad as during COVID, which was a massive shock. I'll talk about this and where we are on the Strait of Hormuz (is it...
Iran Tightens Hormuz Control as Trump Threatens Bombing
With the US refusing to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has responded. Iran will now maintain “strict control” over the Strait. With that, Trump has thrown more fuel on the fire: “We’ll have to start dropping bombs again.” https://t.co/ZrwqjtoLFw
Uganda’s Taxation of Smartphones, Mobile Money Dents Financial Inclusion Quest
Uganda’s drive toward a digital economy is being hampered by taxes on mobile‑money withdrawals and entry‑level smartphones. A 0.5% excise duty on the full value of withdrawals and combined 10% import duty plus 18% VAT on low‑cost phones raise device...
S&P 500 Typically Hits Bottom 15 Days Post‑crisis
Wow, this played out like a charm... Historically, the S&P 500 bottoms 15 trading days after a geopolitical event begins, DB. @soberlook I took some chartistic liberty with the Iran War price update... https://t.co/J5VDwJc2MK
Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Illogical in Hyper‑Globalized Trade
1/3 Putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico makes no sense at all, even though they run trade surpluses with the US. That's because in a hyper-globalized world, trade imbalances are always resolved systemically, never bilaterally. https://t.co/M382OjWzJ2
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?
US equity markets pushed to fresh record highs as progress in US‑Iran talks and a tentative cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon lifted risk appetite. Meanwhile, WTI crude slipped 7.6% last week, briefly breaching $79 a barrel after a steep March...
BYD, XPeng Explore Canadian EV Entry via New Quota
BYD & XPeng to Canada? EVwire brief: Maninder Sidhu, Canada’s International Trade Minister, met with BYD, XPeng, and GAC in Guangzhou to discuss possible EV market entry into Canada under a new import quota system. https://t.co/oWfsY4skR6
Iran Shuts Strait Despite Markets Being Closed
Weird for the Iranians to close the Strait again today. Don't they know financial markets are closed? https://t.co/FumsjlfJjH
Larry Kudlow Hosts April 16 Roundtable on Market Rally Amid Hormuz Blockade Concerns
Larry Kudlow anchored a Fox Business roundtable on Thursday, April 16, focusing on a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, its ripple effects on global oil supplies, and a concurrent rally in U.S. equity markets. The 41‑minute episode featured...
China Shifts to Pipelines After Hormuz Crisis
Watch this space. One of the main outcomes of the Hormuz crisis is Chinese focus on pipelines.
Trump's Iran Blockade Tests Strategy Ahead of Xi Summit
Trump naval blockade of Iran ports—who provide oil to China. Will and how will the Iran war and blockade play in his meeting with Xi? Strategy vs reactionary.
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Oil Shock but Plastics and Fertilizer Costs Stay High
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial traffic, prompting an 8% drop in global oil prices. At the same time, polyethylene resin prices have nearly doubled and fertilizer costs stay elevated, tightening supply chains for plastics,...
Iran Tightens Hormuz, US Blockade Stalls Peace Prospects
Iran reimposed Strait of Hormuz restrictions as US continues blockade of Iran ports. Are there peace negotiations while this happens? Is either side meaningful when it comes to peace? And the global economy?
Iran Attacks Tanker, Re‑closes Strait of Hormuz
Busy and chaotic morning in the Strait of Hormuz > handful of ships make it across the Strait this morning > then at least one Indian tanker reports it was attacked by Iran, forced to turn back > Iran declares the Strait is...
Rolls‑Royce CEO Charts Course Amid Tariffs and Middle East Tensions
Rolls‑Royce Motor Cars chief executive Chris Brownridge told FOX Business that the brand is actively shaping its strategy to offset tariff volatility and geopolitical strain in the Middle East. The interview highlighted the maker’s focus on preserving its premium positioning...
Markets May Correct After Record Rally Amid Optimism
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?: Progress in US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon fed investor optimism. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with multi-week rallies in tow. June WTI tumbled…...
Lutnick Criticizes Canada as USMCA Review Begins
An amazing start to the USMCA review "Lutnick Blasts Canada Ahead of Trade Talks" by @AnaSwanson & @MatinaStevis NYT: https://t.co/pvaAvJtL94 https://t.co/ec6R2JH4Rx
India Launches Inaugural BRICS Academic Forum in New Delhi to Boost Emerging‑Market Policy Dialogue
The Observer Research Foundation and the Research and Information System for Developing Countries convened the inaugural BRICS Academic Forum in New Delhi on April 17‑18. The two‑day event, part of India’s 2026 BRICS chairmanship, gathered scholars and policymakers to shape...
US Rally and Dollar Slide Likely to Reverse Next Week
New weekly commentary: US stock rally looks overdone in the near-term and so does the dollar's sell-off. Both could correct next week. News from Middle East may not be as unambiguous as social media posts suggest....
Trump Claims U.S. Has Good News Amid Hormuz Closure
Trump says U.S. has 'good news' on Iran as Tehran closes Strait of Hormuz @CNBC https://t.co/FJEk5lzz69
EU Jet Fuel Imports From Nigeria and the U.S. Jump in April as Middle East Supplies Falter
European airlines have accelerated jet‑fuel imports from Nigeria and the United States in April, seeking to offset a sharp drop in Middle‑East deliveries after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The shift comes as the International Energy Agency warns Europe may...
Iran Shuts Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Flow
‼️ HAPPENING NOW: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US refuses to end blockade. Global oil supply route could be at risk again https://t.co/yrGUN6Izcw
Iran-Israel War Sends Asian Nations Rethinking LNG Expansion as Prices Double
The Iran‑Israel conflict has driven LNG prices in Asia up more than 100% and pushed imports to six‑year lows, prompting governments from India to Bangladesh to scale back or delay new liquefied natural gas projects. Analysts warn the shock could...
10-Day Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Takes Hold as Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump announced a 10‑day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, calling it a historic day for Lebanon. At the same time Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial traffic, even as the U.S....
Iran Reopens Hormuz, Ten-Year Treasury Yield Falls to One-Month Low
Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open for commercial traffic pushed the benchmark 10‑year Treasury yield down 6.3 basis points to 4.246%, its lowest in a month. The move lifted bond prices, buoyed equities and reignited debate over...
Alaska Air Shares Jump 13% as Oil Prices Fall, While Global Carriers Grapple with Jet Fuel Surge
Alaska Air Group shares surged 13% on Friday after crude prices fell, easing jet‑fuel pressure that has been eroding airline margins. The rally comes as carriers from Europe to Asia announce fare hikes, flight cuts and new surcharges to offset...
Iran Vows to Keep Hormuz Closed Amid US Port Blockade
Iran has rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the hugely important waterway as long as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Again
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, placing the waterway under strict military management. The move follows Tehran’s accusation that the United States continues to restrict Iranian ports and impede freedom of navigation....
Iran Says that Strait of Hormuz Is Closed Once Again, Situation Returns to Previous State
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will revert to strict control, effectively re‑closing the waterway after a brief, limited reopening. Tehran blames the United States for not guaranteeing full freedom of navigation, demanding vessel approvals for any transit. Shipping...
Emerging Markets' Nonfinancial FX Debt Stays Under 20% GDP
What is remarkable is that the nonfinancial sector foreign exchange debt is below 20% of GDP and around 10% of total debt, down from the levels of around 40-60% for most of the emerging markets. https://t.co/p334pC8XRt
Hormuz Oil Flows Too Low to Impact Markets
Bottom line on Hormuz tanker traffic The Signal: Not enough oil is moving to make a difference Whether the few making transit are sanctioned or not is noise
Tankers Transit Hormuz Despite Iran Blockade Warning
Two tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz eastbound on April 18, marking the first crude shipments since Iran announced a temporary reopening of the waterway. The VLCC FPMC C Lord, partially loaded in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, headed toward Fujairah...
ASEAN, Inc.: +19.5% Annually Since December 31, 2024 — The Quiet Outperformer in a Noisy World
ASEAN, Inc., a basket of seven U.S.-listed ETFs covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the region’s 40 largest firms, has delivered a total return of +25.7% (annualized +19.5%) since December 31, 2024. The portfolio’s outperformance is anchored by Vietnam’s...
FSB Warns of ‘Triple Whammy’ Crisis as Private Credit Threat to Global Markets Worsens
The Financial Stability Board warned that a convergence of tighter funding, war‑driven volatility, and strains in non‑bank finance could create a "triple whammy" for global markets. Private‑credit funds, a $1.8 trillion sector, have already hit redemption caps after investors sought to...
Rwanda Secures $251m Low-Cost Loan for Projects, Budget
Rwanda has secured a €213 million ($251 million) 15‑year low‑cost loan from Société Générale and Standard Chartered, backed by an IDA guarantee and a six‑year grace period. The financing will fund infrastructure projects and provide budget support as the country seeks to...
Colombia's Petro Warns of Latin American 'Rebellion' If US Doesn't Rethink Policy
Colombian President Gustavo Petro warned that U.S. pressure on dissenting Latin American leaders could spark a "rebellion" against Washington's influence. Petro, who is on an OFAC sanctions list for alleged drug‑trade links, said the sanctions are being used as a...