Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
In November 2025 Egypt’s deputy transport minister reported that roughly 80% of the Cairo‑to‑Cape Town trans‑African highway is finished, positioning Egypt as the north‑south anchor of the corridor. The project, part of the African Union’s Trans‑African Highway network, is funded by Egypt for its domestic stretch while partner states finance their own segments, often with multilateral support. Simultaneously, Egypt unveiled a 1,720‑km road to Chad via Libya, a $510 million initiative aimed at opening Sahel markets. Persistent security gaps in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, however, keep the route from being fully operational.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a new “hexagon” of alliances that would link Israel with India, Arab states, African nations, Greece, Cyprus and unspecified Asian partners. He framed the network as a counter‑balance to an Iranian‑led “Resistance Axis” and...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the majority of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in 2025 were illegal, prompting the administration to replace them with a uniform 15% levy on all goods entering the United States. Customs officials halted...
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said it is too early for India to assess the impact of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Trump‑era global tariffs, as the commerce ministry continues its review. She also urged banks to refocus on core...
The Africa Markets Conference 2026 (AMC26) opened in Cape Town, hosted by Standard Bank, to examine how heightened global volatility—particularly U.S. Trump‑era tariffs—affects the continent. Organisers aim to channel private and sovereign capital into African infrastructure and growth sectors amid...
A wave of think‑tank discussions in early 2025 highlighted a shift in how experts view China’s role in the Middle East. After a period of heightened activity—dubbed “peak China‑MENA” between Xi’s 2022 Saudi visit and the October 2023 Hamas attack—analysts now...
China signals looser policy and faster green transition for 2026, supporting steel and non-ferrous demand. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/china-2026-economic-policy-direction.html
Cboe’s Macro Volatility Digest shows SPX 1‑month options skew climbing to its highest level in a year. The steepening reflects heightened uncertainty from evolving U.S. tariff policy, geopolitical tensions and lingering AI concerns, while oil volatility spiked to 52%. Equity...
The Cboe report shows the S&P 500 1‑month skew surged to a one‑year high, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection as tariff policy uncertainty intensifies. Oil implied volatility spiked to 52% after fears of a US‑Iran conflict, while equity and rates...
The iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF (EPU) has delivered double‑digit returns in 2026, extending the strong performance it posted in 2025. Its trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio sits at 20.83×, still cheaper than the S&P 500, reflecting a higher cyclical tilt....
The U.S. Supreme Court’s 6‑3 decision invalidating Trump’s IEEPA‑based tariffs did not dismantle the president’s emerging hierarchy of “model allies.” Trump’s administration continues to press allies to meet three benchmarks: 5% of GDP defense spending, sizable U.S. arms purchases...
As of Fri's close, the SPX sat just 0.99% below its Jan 28 all-time high (~6,978.6). Yet everyone's screaming "chaos & uncertainty"? Blue = mkt-cap wgted avg "VIX" of the 500 constituents (now 38) Orange = standard 30-day VIX (17.6) Green =...
The confirmed killing of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, sparked immediate cartel retaliation across western Mexico. Road blockades, vehicle burnings and armed clashes disrupted key highways and temporarily halted operations at the Port of...
The Gift Nifty fools think India will get some special deal You try to dishonor a deal with the US and see what happens. That will surely get you the lower circuit in Gift futures overnight. The stupidity of markets. I am not saying...
Trump is his own China desk (and his own USTR) Brilliant reporting from @dimi of the FT (Strikes me as a very fair summary of the inside DC debate on China) 1/ https://t.co/SYfGL5iROn
Asian currency markets saw the U.S. dollar dominate trade as a fresh tariff dispute intensified cross‑border transactions. The pressure translated into a sharp decline in USD/JPY, with the yen appreciating against the greenback. Trading was further constrained by a public...
Interesting read, certainly something to consider. Even somewhat aligns with the business cycle views I expressed here: https://t.co/Ao19CL9d25 I think there is a reason to believe the current business cycle will end within the next 2-3 years from a liquidity point of...
Kyle Chan: "China’s strength across multiple overlapping industries creates a compounding effect for its industrial policy efforts." https://t.co/1Z2o8dcRWq
The episode examines the Supreme Court's 6-3 decision that invalidated most of former President Trump's global tariffs, a move that instantly lifted e‑commerce stocks such as Amazon, Wayfair, Etsy, Shopify, eBay and Pinduoduo. The hosts explain how the tariffs, imposed...
Syria's oil production is a zero-rounding error @NoamRaydan Current levels are roughly 100–120 kb/d. Max production before the Civil War was 400 kb/d. As you note, its heavy, sour crude must be exported to Greece or Italy b/c it has no complex...
Stocks have had one of their best three year runs in history and the economy hasn't sniffed a recession. https://t.co/hBhFjc8em2
The Queensland Government announced a trade mission to South Korea and Japan, led by Minister Dale Last, to boost investment in the state’s mining, critical‑minerals and manufacturing sectors. The delegation will promote coal, gas, and the revived Queensland Train Manufacturing...
Europe’s gas problem isn’t a lack of LNG — it’s a lack of buffer, writes @seb_kennedy With storage below 32%, even hypothetical risks like Hormuz move prices fast. #TTF #LNG #EnergySecurity #GasMarkets #Geopolitics
Trump's tariff drama intensifies while markets await key inflation data and Fed signals. The plot thickens on every front this week. 🟢 Open https://t.co/8tpXkyVt89
Forward bookings and average fares for July 2026 transatlantic flights are down, signalling a softer peak summer than 2025. Visitor numbers from Western Europe to the United States remained below pre‑pandemic levels, with seven of the ten largest origin markets...
Reuters: "German businesses warned of what they called destabilising and unfair global business practices by China, accusing Beijing of driving overcapacity, massive subsidies, distortive foreign-exchange policies and politically motivated export controls. https://t.co/701kYKGi2T
SCMP: "High-speed rail services are already accessible in 97 per cent of Chinese cities with populations of more than 500,000, the State Council said in December." https://t.co/bD3P6HUata
The episode reviews the Asian market landscape during the week of Feb 15‑20, 2026, highlighting that Mainland China’s Lunar New Year closure shifted price discovery offshore, with earnings-driven rotation favoring North Asian hardware stocks. Korea led the earnings surge thanks...
According to the China Global South Project, in 2025, trade between China and Africa reached $348 billion, a 17.7% increase from 2024. Chinese exports to Africa rose 25.8% to $225 billion, while African exports to China rose 5.4% to $123 billion. https://t.co/RFFOLMKVsP
The Flexport Tariff Simulator is up to date with the latest changes to the tariff code. For now we only have a 10% section 122 in place, awaiting official CFR update on the 15% change Trump announced. We made the...
A new study of Japanese multinational corporations shows that rising geopolitical risk is prompting firms to diversify supply chains away from China toward ASEAN economies, rather than fully relocating production. Using the Caldara‑Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index and firm‑level trade and...
Looks like a model of AI induced unemployment but complete nonsense. there’s AI actually augmenting labor productivity and some separate labor demand shock (even though labor demand is derived demand from productivity)
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India just signed a $20B mining and minerals pact with Brazil to secure iron ore and fuel steel expansion. US tariff threats push India away, and it pivots towards the global south. https://t.co/JvDQ3RVGy6
A joint review of Chinese, Kazakh and Kyrgyz customs data reveals massive discrepancies in reported trade values, with China claiming $48.7 billion in exports to Kazakhstan and $27.2 billion to Kyrgyzstan in 2025, while the two neighbours report only $34.1 billion and $5 billion...
Trump. New tariff. Boost for China and Brazil. Current tariff is for 150 days. Then what will Trump do next as to imports and revenue? Supply chain unpredictability.
The People’s Bank of China left its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% for the one‑year and 3.50% for the five‑year tenor, marking the ninth straight month of stability. Market participants had widely priced in a hold, reflecting the...
The World Travel & Tourism Council warns that England’s new overnight stay tax could slow tourism recovery, reduce visitor spending and jeopardise jobs. The proposal lets local authorities levy £2‑£10 per person or a percentage of room rates on hotels,...
Vanguard’s 2026 outlook projects international equities delivering 4.9%‑6.9% average annual returns over the next decade, outpacing the 4%‑5% forecast for U.S. stocks. The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) has already outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑100, rising 9% year‑to‑date and...
January PPI lands Friday. Core PPI already printed +0.7% MoM vs 0.2% expected — biggest monthly jump since July 2025. NY Fed puts underlying PCE trend at 2.83% by December, up from 2.55% in September. WTI crude +15.6% YTD. Rapidan...
The European Union has designated Azerbaijan as a cornerstone of its post‑Russia energy strategy, pledging to double gas imports to 20 bcm per year by 2027 through the Southern Gas Corridor. Azerbaijan’s gas exports to Europe surged 60% to 12.9 bcm in...
President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 15 percent tariff on all imports, following a recent 10 percent levy introduced after a Supreme Court ruling struck down much of his earlier tariff regime. The across‑the‑board duty removes sector exemptions, injecting fresh uncertainty into...
The United States Customs and Border Protection issued a withhold‑release order blocking imports of sea‑salt from South Korea’s Taepyung farm, citing reasonable indications of forced labor. Taepyung, the nation’s largest salt producer, accounts for roughly 6% of South Korea’s total...
At the Munich Security Conference, former Defense official Evelyn Farkas warned that the transatlantic alliance’s cohesion is under strain as European partners grow distrustful of U.S. commitments. She urged a clear reaffirmation of American support for NATO and called for...
World Bank’s poverty‑reduction mission is compromised by weak oversight in many developing nations, where borrowed funds are often diverted into election‑timed projects and opaque schemes. The article highlights how political opportunism inflates contracts, disguises debt as generosity, and undermines public...
If you want to read a piece that lays out the best bull/base case scenario, you should go read “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” by Perez. The book argues that every technological advancement follows the same framework as it relates to...
What's fascinating is that tariffs are deeply unpopular --- as tax increases often are -- and the White House doubles, triples down on them.
L: Productivity miracle 1.0 - autos (white) replace horses (orange) in 10 yrs; horses never recover R: Productivity miracle 2.0 - China replaces US manufacturing workers; US mfg workers down ~35% in 10 yrs Productivity miracle 3.0 - AI v. white-collar jobs;...
Interesting. Will getting tariff refunds be like getting blood from a stone? What will importers do?
Lagarde says US tariff moves risk upsetting equilibrium with the EU https://t.co/ode7ZBLduy via @weberalexander https://t.co/HemjTQHk5r
India postpones trip to finalize trade pact. Global uncertainty on what Trump will do after his 15% for 150 days action is done because his tariffs were deemed not legal. What is ahead for supply chains?
