Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
War Revives Stagflation Dangers for Global Economy
The seven‑week Iran‑Israel conflict is now feeding into the next round of global PMI surveys, with Europe expected to show a broad deterioration while U.S. indicators remain relatively flat. Inflation pressures are rising as oil prices stay elevated, prompting stagflation fears reminiscent of the 1970s. Central banks from the ECB to the Fed and emerging‑market policymakers are wrestling with tighter monetary stances amid heightened uncertainty. The IMF warns that even a cease‑fire will not quickly reverse the damage to growth and price stability.
Hormuz Reopen Fuels US Stock Rally, Nasdaq Extends 13-Day Streak
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, triggering a surge in US stock futures. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% and the Nasdaq logged a 13‑day winning streak, while crude oil tumbled more than 10% to about $81 per...
Victory Lap to Crisis: Trump’s Hormuz Claim Backfires Almost Instantly
President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "open" after Iran’s foreign minister announced a temporary cease‑fire, prompting a brief dip in oil prices. Within hours, Iranian Revolutionary Guard vessels fired on ships and re‑imposed strict controls, turning the perceived...
VIX Drops Below 20 as Investors Return to U.S. Equities, Boosting Options Markets
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell from a March high of 31.05 to 19.23, moving below the key 20‑level as investors poured money back into U.S. equities. The drop reflects easing geopolitical tension, strong AI‑driven growth, and a broader global...
Ghana Braces for Oil‑Price Shock Amid Stronger Macro Foundations
Ghana's economy confronts a fresh oil‑price shock from Middle East tensions, but enters the storm with a 14% policy rate, Treasury bills under 5%, inflation below target and higher reserves. Analysts say the stronger macro backdrop could blunt the impact...
Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Hearing as Trump Nominates Potential Fed Chair
President Donald Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh will appear before the Senate Banking Committee, where lawmakers will weigh his likely preference for lower interest rates against an inflationary backdrop shaped by...
Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 20-24th April
The week’s headline is the looming expiry of the US‑Iran ceasefire on April 22, heightening geopolitical risk for energy markets. China’s People’s Bank is expected to leave its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.00% (1‑year) and 3.50% (5‑year) amid Middle‑East...
The Price of War
The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil, has been effectively shut after Israel’s heavy strikes on Lebanon and U.S. sanctions on non‑Iranian tankers. The closure coincides with a fragile cease‑fire and a U.S....
Bitcoin Surges Past $70,000 to $77,000 as Middle East Tensions Ease
Bitcoin leapt to $77,000 on Friday, breaking the $70,000 barrier for the first time since February. The rally was triggered by a sudden easing of geopolitical risk after the Strait of Hormuz opened and a cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon...
War Revives Stagflation Dangers for Global Economy
The seven‑week Middle East war is reigniting stagflation concerns as growth slows while inflation climbs. Early purchasing‑manager index data show a twin hit to output and price pressures in the conflict’s second month. Upcoming business surveys across multiple economies will...
Traders Ready to Put War Behind Them Dial Up Risk
Investors are shifting toward lower‑rated investment‑grade bonds as the Iran‑U.S. truce appears to hold. In early April, net purchases of BBB‑rated debt reached $500 million, while $7.3 billion of higher‑rated A‑plus and above notes were sold, according to JPMorgan Chase. The move...
More Central Bank Independence?
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is urging a push for stronger central‑bank independence, arguing it will shield the institution’s price‑stability mandate from political interference. In a recent discussion, economist Steve Keen challenged this narrative, describing the prevailing monetary‑policy framework...
Inside the Race to Control the World’s Lithium Supply
Lithium production has exploded from 31,500 tonnes in 2015 to an estimated 290,000 tonnes in 2025, fueling a $150 billion battery market that grew 20% year‑over‑year. China now dominates both mining and refining, projected to control roughly half of the global lithium market...
Why Oil Prices Spike Before Supply Breaks (Strait of Hormuz Explained)
Oil prices often surge before any physical disruption in the Strait of Hormuz because market participants price the perceived risk of delayed or rerouted shipments. Recent Iranian military tightening and vessel warnings have heightened uncertainty, prompting insurers to raise premiums...
Iran’s Hormuz Whiplash Highlights Divide Within Regime as U.S. Blockade Tightens. ‘The Fight Between Different Factions Has Started’
Iran’s military announced the Strait of Hormuz closed again after a day of contradictory statements from the foreign ministry and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC publicly rebuked Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s claim that the waterway was fully...
Iran's Hormuz Threat Sparks Global Energy Equipment Shortage
Iran warned it will shut the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. blockade continues, prompting markets to brace for a cut in about 20% of global oil transit. The disruption has already tightened supply chains for oil‑field equipment, spare parts...
Traders Bet $760 Million on Oil Decline Ahead of Iran’s Hormuz Announcement
Traders collectively placed $760 million in short positions on oil futures and options ahead of an expected Iranian announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The bet reflects market anxiety over potential supply disruptions and underscores the role of derivatives in managing...
Israel Riles Somalia Again in Naming Envoy to Somaliland
Israel appointed former Nairobi ambassador Michael Lotem as a non‑resident envoy to Somaliland, provoking a strong protest from Somalia that views the move as a violation of its sovereignty. Somaliland, which has operated with its own constitution, elections and currency...
Fresh Attacks Shatter ‘Open Hormuz’ Narrative as Iran Pushes New Maritime Regime
On April 18, three separate incidents—including a projectile strike on a containership, gunfire from IRGC‑linked gunboats on a tanker, and a near‑miss near a cruise ship—were reported off Oman, shattering the narrative that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open....
Asian Currencies Squeezed by US‑Israel‑Iran Conflict as Oil and LNG Prices Spike
The escalation of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has pushed oil to $110‑$116 a barrel and LNG up 143%, triggering inflation, industrial slowdown and sharp foreign‑exchange pressure across Asia. Central banks in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines face tighter conditions as...
LME Index Hits Record as Aluminium Supply Fears Surge
The London Metal Exchange's composite index reached a new all‑time high, up roughly 12% over the past month. The rally is powered by a 15% jump in aluminium prices, sparked by Iranian attacks on key smelting facilities amid the ongoing...
Asian Markets Split as Nikkei, Hang Seng and KOSPI Drop on Falling Oil After US‑Iran Ceasefire Hopes
Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and South Korea's KOSPI all posted losses on Friday, dragged by a 7.5% plunge in Brent crude after a tentative US‑Iran ceasefire. The divergent equity moves highlight how quickly Asian markets react to...
Wall Street Banks Beat Estimates but Face Volatile Market Headwinds
All six major U.S. banks posted first‑quarter earnings that topped analysts' forecasts, driven by strong trading and a rebound in loan demand. Yet heightened volatility from Middle‑East tensions, AI‑related tech sell‑offs and private‑credit concerns kept their stock indices under pressure.
Vessels Attacked as Iran Reasserts Control of Hormuz
On Saturday, two commercial vessels were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, prompting alerts from the UK Maritime Trade Operations. The incidents followed Iran’s announcement that it would reassert strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, despite earlier assurances...
Two Indian-Flagged Ships Attacked While Crossing Strait of Hormuz, Government Confirms
India’s Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that two Indian‑flagged crude‑oil tankers were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 18. The incidents prompted India to summon Iran’s ambassador in New Delhi for a high‑level meeting. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri...
Ships Abort Hormuz Transit Attempts
At least 21 vessels attempting to exit the Gulf of Oman were forced to reverse course after Iran reinstated strict transit controls in the Strait of Hormuz. The reversal followed a brief reopening announced by Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi...
Product Tankers Exit Hormuz Amid Iran U‑turn
Three clean oil product tankers successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz on April 18 despite Iran abruptly reversing its earlier pledge to keep the waterway open for managed passage. All three vessels are flagged as high sanctions‑risk by Windward, yet...
Reeves Rightly Fears the Bond Market, but She Can Afford to Ditch One Unhelpful Rule | Phillip Inman
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is confronting rising bond‑vigilante pressure as UK borrowing costs jump to 4.9% on 10‑year gilts. She has pledged to cut the annual deficit below 2% by 2031, a target praised by IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. Reeves’ fiscal plan...
The Rupture: How Europe Fell Out of Love with America
Europe’s once‑rock‑solid transatlantic bond is fraying as policy rifts with Washington deepen. Trade tariffs, divergent climate commitments, and disputes over digital regulation have eroded trust that was briefly restored by President Biden’s 2021 pledge. NATO funding debates and differing approaches...
Some Key Notes on the Strait of Hormuz Standoff
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) re‑closed the Strait of Hormuz, overriding the civilian government’s position. The post highlights Iran’s fragmented power structure—an ayatollah, a civilian administration, and a semi‑autonomous IRGC—making coherent policy difficult. It argues that the U.S. Navy’s...
ECB Moves Away From April Hike as Peace Talks Progress: Overview
European Central Bank officials are reassessing an April rate hike as US‑Iran peace talks ease oil price pressures and bring inflation in the euro zone above 4%. President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data‑dependent approach, while the Governing Council remains divided,...
Iran's Hormuz Control Threatens Global Energy Security
Security of Global Energy System Hinges on Iran If Iran asserts sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the dominoes begin to fall as other supply chokepoints are contested. PS - This morning, Iran resumed control of tanker traffic in the Strait #iranwar https://markhamhislop.substack.com/p/security-of-global-energy-system
Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve...
How the Middle East Crisis Chokes East Africa’s Revenue Lifeline
The US‑Israel war on Iran has driven up global crude prices, sending East African fuel costs soaring. Governments in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia rely on multiple taxes that can represent up to half of pump prices, sparking public...
Iran Conflict Trims Global 2026 Growth to 3.1%
GLOBAL GROWTH IS LOSING STEAM. Before the Iran war, forecasts pointed to 3.4% growth in 2026. Now, the IMF has slashed its projections to just 3.1%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR LONG-TERM DAMAGE. https://t.co/Q2UvmWSb0o
Avoid Absurd Tail Risk for Sub‑SOFR Yields
I don’t think taking absurd tail risk to earn yield below SOFR is a good idea but that’s just me https://t.co/qw0D0qMyP9
Strait of Hormuz Shut, US Blockade Intensifies, and Gunfire Reported
The Strait of Hormuz was abruptly closed after Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunships attacked a tanker and a cargo vessel, prompting the UK military to confirm the incidents. The United States responded with an intensified naval blockade while President Biden signaled...
Factory Output Rises While Jobs Keep Falling
JUST IN: Factory output is surging and could accelerate, even as jobs decline steadily, driven by strong demand.
India's Cabotage Reversal Threatens Sri Lanka Transshipment Role
Serious question: But isn't India reversing the 2018 cabotage reform? Where does that leave Sri Lanka and India in the transshipment picture?
IMF Underestimates Growth After Major Economic Shocks
IMF growth forecasts are much too pessimistic when they come right after big shocks. It was that way in Apr. 2025 after "Liberation Day" and it's like that again now. I talked about this on this morning's live stream that...
Deflation: Tech’s Gift, Not an Economic Threat
Deflation is not a bad thing. We’ve had it for decades in technology, and it’s a massive good, sort of a gift from the economy to everyone who has dollars, in proportion to their number of dollars.
Iran Shifts Tactics: Stock Manipulation Over Oil, Gunboats Attack
Can Iranians be pumping and dumping stocks instead of oil? Iranian gunboats fire on tanker after Strait of Hormuz closed again.
Markets Await Warsh Hearing, Data, Hormuz Wild Card
This week brings Warsh's confirmation hearing, retail sales, flash PMIs, and consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains the wild card for markets. 🟢 Open https://t.co/mLRfGzP6hG
Brazil's Lula Calls for P5 Conduct Reform
JUST IN: Lula from Brazil urges the UN Security Council's permanent members to reform their conduct.
BYD Seeks EU Lobby Seat Amid EV Tariff Pressures
BYD is in talks to join Europe’s car lobby group, a move that would give the Chinese automaker a voice in the region where it faces tariffs on its electric-vehicle imports https://t.co/Pi7zP3bsiq
Brazil's High Money Growth Fuels Inflation Above Target
Brazil's March inflation is 4.14%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3%/yr inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Tariff Turmoil Threatens Credit; $JOJO Offers Protection
Trade policy is a mess. New tariffs keep replacing old ones. Courts are intervening. Businesses can't plan. This kind of policy chaos eventually hits credit. $JOJO is designed for that moment. https://t.co/XM7J6EtxpP
Tariffs Fully Passed to Consumers, Labor Gains Negligible
Another Fed paper finds Americans paid almost all Trump's 2025 tariffs ("pass-through of realized tariffs into import prices was close to one hundred percent"), AND that local labor market effects were "economically negligible." All pain, no gain. https://t.co/FIgzz7XDAC https://t.co/SeRAnQAdLP
Trust Deficit Drives Fragmented, Fluid Global Supply Chains
World order and trade. What are they when trust is lacking? When countries look at their needs against that backdrop? Risk not resilience will be key. Fragmentation. Supply chains must have manageable, dynamic fluidity. 2nd and 3rd orders will be...
Stock and Housing Gains Fuel Consumer Spending Despite Crises
Why are consumers still spending money despite higher prices, tariffs, energy price spikes, war, etc? You cannot overstate how much wealth has been created in the stock and housing markets in the 2020s Taking stock of consumer balance sheets: https://t.co/2z6xHf95hK https://t.co/6idg1ItOV2