Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
A Hong Kong‑flagged tanker loaded with Russian diesel used offshore ship‑to‑ship transfers near Cyprus and repeatedly altered its AIS data to conceal a planned delivery to Cuba. The vessel’s draft increase and route changes suggest deliberate evasion of U.S. sanctions that are tightening restrictions on Russian fuel shipments to the Caribbean. If it arrives in early March, it would be the first confirmed refined‑product cargo to Havana since early January, marking a rare breach of the growing embargo. The episode underscores how sanction‑evasion tactics are reshaping oil logistics in the region.
BMO Global Commodities Research warns that tungsten prices have surged fivefold in the past year as chronic under‑investment and tightening Chinese supply create a looming shortage. With China providing about 75% of global output, ore‑grade declines, environmental limits and export...
🚨 Morning Market Rundown – Feb 23, 2026 🚨 🧠 Macro Headline: Markets digest Fed Waller + key U.S. data with durable goods and factory orders in focus. Growth vs slowdown narrative still in play. 📅 Economic Events: • 0800 – Fed’s Waller speaks •...
Hapag‑Lloyd’s pending acquisition of Zim will reshape the Asia‑US east‑coast trade, especially the five vessel‑sharing services currently run with MSC. The carrier can either keep Zim’s premium, time‑sensitive strings separate or fold them into the Gemini alliance, each option raising...
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver the UK Spring Statement on 3 March 2026, presenting the latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economic forecasts. The OBR outlook on growth, inflation, unemployment and public finances will be published after the speech via the...
Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” https://t.co/8ompstwgY9 If...
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
European container carriers now control 55.5% of capacity among the top 30 operators, according to Alphaliner’s latest data for week 08 of 2026. This share eclipses the combined 38.6% held by carriers based in Asia and the Middle East. The...
Major private‑equity firms such as KKR, Blackstone and CVC reported no publicly disclosed full exits from mainland Chinese portfolio companies in 2025. The exit drought reflects strained liquidity, higher interest rates and depressed valuations that have throttled deal activity. While...
Indian DAP stocks slipped to just under 1.9 million tonnes in January, marking the fourth consecutive monthly draw. Imports plunged to 70,000 t while domestic production held steady at 342,000 t, and sales rose to 535,000 t, outpacing the three‑year average. Despite the short‑term...
An EU report says the proposed Trans‑Caucasus Railway (TRIPP) corridor through southern Armenia could be up to 25 % faster than the existing Baku‑Tbilisi‑Kars (BTK) line. The project would create a US‑backed, long‑term lease railway linking Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave...
Uganda announced plans to connect its new standard gauge railway to Tanzania’s under‑construction rail network. The line would run from the Tanzania border through southwestern Uganda to Mpondwe on the DRC frontier, linking mineral‑rich regions to the port of Dar...
The U.S. de minimis exemption, which let shipments under $800 enter duty‑free, remains suspended after President Trump’s executive order, despite a Supreme Court ruling that declared IEEPA‑based tariffs unconstitutional. The Court’s decision did not directly address the exemption, leaving its legal...
I am seeing many market analysts include the accumulated copper stockpiles in the US in their global balance of copper stockpiles and therefore conclude that there are >1 million tonnes of available copper in global stockpiles today. I am not...
Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His...
Seattle‑Tacoma International Airport (SEA) logged a record‑high 460,062 metric tonnes of cargo in 2024, a 10.3% year‑over‑year increase. The surge is powered by high‑value aerospace, electronics and tech exports that command premium freight rates, as well as robust domestic e‑commerce...
The Mexican army killed CJNG boss "El Mencho" near Puerto Vallarta, triggering fierce gun battles and an unprecedented U.S. military task‑force partnership. President Trump announced a new 15% tariff regime under Section 122, but it can only stay in effect for...
Lectra’s Retviews data shows mid‑market fashion brands raised prices up to 50% in Europe for FW25 and doubled them in the US, overtaking luxury as the sector’s growth engine. Price gains span denim, winter footwear, coats, jackets, handbags and accessories,...
Gold Volatility Could Trickle Up to Stocks - Gold's highest 180-day volatility since 2009, juxtaposed with the lowest for the Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) since 2018, forms a crocodile-jaw pattern ripe to bite. My graphic highlights what might be the top...
How low can mortgage rates go with tariff ruling and Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair? https://t.co/eEzHs3zcYh
Armenia’s aging Soviet‑era nuclear reactor leaves the country on the brink of an energy crisis, and Moscow’s dwindling support after the Ukraine war has removed its traditional security backstop. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance recently signed a nuclear cooperation deal...
Big moves in currencies are made one small move at a time. The fact that USD didn't rally substantially after the SCOTUS decision is remarkable. After all, it fell a lot when reciprocal tariffs hit, so the fact that it...
Trump. Is he amping up for more than 15% global tariffs? With his unpredictability, what do importer supply chains do now?
The Atlantic Council’s Frederick Kempe marks the 80th anniversary of George Kennan’s Long Telegram, arguing that today’s geopolitical turbulence demands a comparable strategic blueprint. He highlights a simultaneous great‑power contest involving Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s assertiveness around Taiwan, and an...
March cut may be a coin flip for Waller based on Feb payrolls, but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero
What are the hottest EMs in 2026? There are a handful of EMs that have monthly BoP flows. Those show a big rise in foreign investor inflows for Colombia (red), Chile (blue) and South Korea (purple). India (green) and Mexico...
The UK government published an updated Charter for Budget Responsibility (Autumn 2025) on 26 January 2026, with a final version laid in Parliament on 23 February 2026. The revision makes small technical changes to operationalise the Budget 2025 pledge for an annual fiscal‑rules assessment, dovetailing with...
Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate...
The US risk drifting toward petrostate economics. Regulatory rollbacks and clean energy policy U-turns aren’t just about climate — they affect jobs, industrial competitiveness, health and investment certainty. https://t.co/6Jn5YrWN68
Nice Côte d’Azur and Cannes Mandelieu airports now generate €2.8 billion in regional GDP and support 40,800 full‑time equivalent jobs, marking a 31% and 8% rise respectively since the 2019 study. Passenger traffic grew modestly by 3%, yet the economic impact...
A tariff that expires in 150 days isn’t a long-run industrial policy. Firms invest on multi-year horizons. If the policy is temporary, the investment response will be, too: mostly none. (This was recorded when the tariff rate was 10%; it's...
Back to the 1970s again. History, Trump, the law and the balance of payments. Can the bofp be in deficit? Did a chartbook in response to the fascinating exchange between @Brad_Setser & @PhilWMagness https://t.co/ryYY7Z9OBm https://t.co/zySJwiEZN7
Airports of Thailand (AOT) announced that the international passenger service charge will rise from THB 730 to THB 1,120 per departing passenger, effective June 20, 2026. The domestic charge remains at THB 130. AOT projects the hike will generate roughly...
New @nberpubs: "Industrial Policies for Multi-Stage Production: The Battle for Battery-Powered Vehicles" https://t.co/DX6XB7e1R0 "local content requirements... drive up costs and reduce subsidy uptake, undoing more than half of the EV adoption stimulus coming from pure buyer subsidies" 😲
Economic calendar for Mon. Feb 23. 8:00am - Fed’s Waller speaks 8:30 - Chicago National Activity Index for December: Expected -0.08; Prior -0.04 10:00 - Factory orders m/m for December: Expected -0.6%; Prior 2.7%
In this episode, Russ Roberts talks with journalist Karen Elliott House about her new book on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, examining the Saudi leader’s drive to modernize the kingdom while consolidating political power. House outlines MBS’s motivations—economic diversification, geopolitical influence, and...
I'll be on @FoxBusiness this morning with @MariaBartiromo today at 7:10 am EST, talking markets, recent tariff developments & what's in store
When All is Said and Done in FX, Little has been Done: The US dollar was fairly resilient in the face of the softer than expected Q4 GDP reading and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision. However, it came under pressure...
Stocks in Asia and Europe fell as investors digested the U.S. Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and President Trump’s threat of new 10‑15 percent duties. Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator slipped, and gold jumped 1.81 % toward a record high. While the S&P 500...
Armenia’s landlocked position between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran has left Yerevan with few good options in the post-Soviet world. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/ZWXi1Pbh4h #armenia #geopolitics https://t.co/un8RUyVDaW
Senegal’s public debt has surged to roughly 132% of GDP, placing the country in a severe fiscal bind. With limited access to cheap financing, the government faces a stark choice between costly debt service and a structured debt‑restructuring process. Analysts...
The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated most of President Trump’s tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, delivering a sharp policy reversal. Asian equity markets responded positively, with technology and e‑commerce stocks leading gains and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up...
Georgia’s rail freight accounts for about 10‑12% of national cargo volume but roughly 30% of transit flows, underscoring its strategic role in Eurasian connectivity. After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, rail volumes surged 22% in 2022 and turnover jumped...
India is rapidly pivoting from its BRICS stance toward deeper integration with the West, highlighted by a landmark EU free‑trade agreement and its entry into the US‑led Pax Silica AI alliance. The India‑Middle‑East‑Europe Corridor (IMEC) is being repurposed from a logistics...
The dollar’s recent slide is viewed as a cyclical correction rather than a structural collapse, with the real trade‑weighted index still well above its long‑term average. Hedging activity is rising, with buy‑side hedge ratios projected to reach roughly 74% by...
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6‑3 that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, effectively nullifying those duties. Trump immediately announced a new 10% worldwide tariff using a different statutory basis,...
Ukraine’s economy has rebounded to near pre‑war GDP levels thanks to disciplined fiscal policy, heightened defense spending, and sustained international aid. Restored air and sea corridors revived export channels, while targeted infrastructure grants offset war‑induced fiscal gaps. The government’s focus...
Taiwan's Taiex index closed modestly higher on Feb. 23, up 0.5% to 33,773 points, as investors weighed renewed U.S. tariff concerns following President Trump’s new global duties. The market’s early surge, driven by electronics, was trimmed by profit‑taking in TSMC,...
A 25‑basis‑point (0.25 percentage‑point) drop in mortgage rates could make monthly payments affordable for an estimated 1.42 million additional households, expanding the pool of qualified borrowers. Simultaneously, incorporating the lower operating costs of energy‑efficient homes into underwriting can deliver an equivalent 75‑basis‑point...
Geneva Dry 2026, the premier dry‑bulk shipping conference, is set for April 28‑29 in Lausanne with up to 900 delegates and 51 sponsors. European Energy Exchange (EEX) head Peter Blogg warned that geopolitical turbulence makes short‑term forecasts difficult, underscoring the...
