Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
The episode dissects the 62nd Munich Security Conference, highlighting Europe’s push for strategic autonomy, lingering reliance on the U.S., and a shared sense that the post‑World War II liberal order is eroding. Guests note France’s view that autonomy is a strategic necessity and point to growing Franco‑German tensions over defence cooperation, with Germany still favoring the trans‑Atlantic bond. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech reassured some but alarmed others by implicitly critiquing Europe’s current norms. The discussion weaves together perspectives from France, Germany, the UK and Poland to map the shifting security landscape.
Emerging‑market equities have outpaced U.S. and European stocks in 2026, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF up more than 11% year‑to‑date and 37% over the past twelve months. Wealth‑management firms are responding by raising EM exposure to roughly 10‑12%...
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) argues that the U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs are unjustified, noting Canada is not a dumping ground or transshipment hub. Since the tariffs took effect, Canada has lost roughly 2 million metric tons of steel...
Fed Governor Stephen Miran praised the appointment of Kevin Warsh, noting his hawkish reputation could give the Fed more credibility and make larger rate cuts easier. He highlighted systematic biases in inflation measurement—particularly portfolio‑management services and lagged shelter data—that have...
Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater: “Mortgage rates dropped again this week, now down to their lowest level since September of 2022.” The 30-year fixed averaged 6.01% this week, down from 6.09% last week. Meanwhile, pending home sales are DOWN after existing...
U.S. stock futures were largely flat on Wednesday night after the major indexes posted gains, with the Dow down 0.09%, the S&P 500 down 0.09% and the Nasdaq down 0.1%. Investors focused on Walmart’s upcoming fourth‑quarter earnings, a widely watched...
Global container shipping rates slipped another 1% to $1,919 per 40‑foot container, marking a sixth consecutive weekly decline. The expected pre‑Lunar New Year cargo surge failed to materialise, leaving both carriers and shippers with excess capacity. Transpacific lanes saw spot...
The United States now carries a public debt exceeding $38 trillion—about 101% of GDP—and projections show it could reach 120% within a decade. Rising interest obligations threaten to crowd out vital programs, notably Social Security, which the Congressional Budget Office warns...
Mark Temnycky, a non‑resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote in Forbes that the European Union will fully phase out Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2026. The move is framed as a step toward greater energy...
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis affirmed that the recently concluded India‑EU Free Trade Agreement will unlock fresh trade and investment opportunities between India and the European Union. The leaders discussed expanding cooperation under the India‑Middle East‑Europe...
ECDB’s Global E‑commerce Compass 2026 reveals that U.S., Chinese and Russian platforms dominate Europe’s ecommerce landscape. Amazon leads with a 2025 GMV just under $232 billion, almost equal to the combined GMV of the next nine players. Russian marketplaces Ozon and...
Maersk announced a significant upsizing of its West India‑US East Coast (MECL) service to add incremental westbound container capacity. The move follows the United States’ reduction of tariffs on Indian‑made goods from 50% to 25%, with a further cut to...
At the JSE SA Trade Connect conference, market leaders warned that volatility is no longer a rare "black swan" but a persistent flock of shocks. Alicia Greenwood highlighted the exchange’s push to fuse disparate data sources, enabling faster interpretation and...
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni visited Ethiopia to cement Italy’s renewed Africa strategy, highlighting the operational rollout of the Mattei Plan. The plan aims to turn Italy into an energy hub by building pipelines that export gas and hydrogen from...
In a February 2026 Atlantic Council podcast, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer revisited the Trump administration’s aggressive trade agenda, focusing on the looming United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) review. Greer confirmed that a full U.S. withdrawal from the pact remains "on...
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its overnight repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking the ninth cut since August 2024. Inflation remains modest at 2%, comfortably within the 2‑4% target band, while the peso rallied to...
The Democratic Republic of Congo has placed the rebel‑held Rubaya coltan mine on a shortlist of strategic assets offered to the United States under a new minerals‑cooperation framework. Rubaya, which supplies roughly 15% of the world’s coltan, requires between $50 million...
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
The COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission (CCCC) has opened an investigation into Meta Platforms Ireland Ltd for allegedly abusing its dominant position by amending WhatsApp Business Solution Terms in October 2025 to block rival AI chatbot providers. The probe follows...
The CBI’s industrial trends survey shows British manufacturers recorded order books well below their long‑term average in February. Despite the weak order flow, most firms plan to raise prices over the next three months. The survey also indicates that output...
Subprime borrowers propelled U.S. unsecured loan balances to a record $276 bn, a 10% increase year‑over‑year, with 26.4 million consumers holding such loans. Credit‑card issuers expanded lending to lower‑income customers, pushing total balances 4% higher to $1.15 trillion, but responded by trimming initial...
The combination of decent economic data (see last week’s employment data) and the softer inflation report might be anecdotal evidence that the promise of an AI-driven productivity boom (which would lift the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit) is becoming a reality....
One positive aspect of the evolution of this market cycle has been how the market has become less reliant on multiple expansion. Earnings and dividends now comprise almost half of the cumulative gains since October 2022, with the P/E expansion...
Investors remain steady in the med‑tech sector despite lingering tariff uncertainties, signaling confidence in long‑term growth. At the same time, research updates highlight the SCAN circuit as a core driver of Parkinson’s disease, TL1A overexpression in hidradenitis suppurativa, and an...
On December 10, 2025, the Northern Europe Office and Sweden’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted a High North workshop to assess the Arctic’s evolving security landscape. Participants from Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Greenland examined great‑power rivalry, Nordic defence cooperation,...
I Love and Endorse the Bipartisan 3 % of GDP Budget Deficit Solution In the House of Representatives there is now a bipartisan bill in the works to enact, and a growing agreement that we need, a 3% cap on the budget...
President Trump’s energy dominance agenda has boosted US fossil fuel output, with oil production reaching record levels and LNG exports rising over 20 percent. The administration has kept five coal‑fired plants operating through regulatory rollbacks and secured Pentagon contracts, while...
The Trump administration announced a U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation framework in November 2025, but a newly obtained report to Congress reveals the draft 123 agreement omits key non‑proliferation safeguards. The proposal would permit Saudi Arabia to pursue a limited uranium enrichment...
One of the responses I got to my AI and the human touch piece was to claim it was absurd to imagine the government would redistribute more in the event of worse outcomes for some because the US is so...
December goods deficit (ex oil) was back where it was in the fall of 2024, which seems like a fair read -- the October dip as a one off tied to reversing pharma front running a feared tariff and a...
The European Commission has granted strategic status to four African mineral projects—two in South Africa and Zambia, plus sites in Malawi and Madagascar—under the Critical Raw Materials Act, with decisions due in Q2 2026. The Zandkopsdrift rare‑earth operation in South Africa...
Another great discussion with @MrMBrown where we look at more record highs for the FTSE100, against a backdrop of decent earnings, and the prospect of a March rate cut from the BOE https://t.co/1QJd0kOMS5 via @PepperstoneFX @GoodMoneyGuide
in what world could revising up your dot which is ~100bps below OIS to ~50bps below OIS be considered “turning hawkish”?
Rwanda’s central bank raised its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 7.25% on Thursday, reacting to a jump in consumer price inflation to 8.9% year‑on‑year in January. The move aims to bring inflation back within the bank’s 2‑8%...
Last week’s CPI report came in soft at 2.4%, which was understandably well received by the bond market. The Truflation index, which has plummeted to a 0.7% year-over-year rate of change, hinted at a softer turn for the CPI. https://t.co/ZsIPypfaNW
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Slides into Yearly Open Support – Decision Time https://t.co/SHnGwyQMrX $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/2Uu9a1yink
President Donald Trump warned Iran it has roughly ten days to reach a "meaningful" nuclear agreement, hinting that "bad things" could follow. He said negotiations were progressing but insisted Tehran must abandon enrichment and missile programs. The warning coincides with...
"If you refer to those Walmart earnings. The CEO saying that tariffs are no longer an issue when it comes to pricing, but rather wages and income…" https://t.co/0OABeT0az6 #federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #kevinwarsh #economy #schwab https://t.co/VX4my3zpe8
Jobless claims update: Another week of low initial claims and stable continuing claims, suggesting no change in the low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. https://t.co/umbJshwxL5
Russia warned of an unprecedented escalation around Iran as the United States completes a military buildup slated for mid‑March. A Russian corvette joined Iranian naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, underscoring Moscow’s support amid heightened US‑Iran tensions. Negotiations over...
Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
Stephen Miran, long viewed as the Fed’s arch dove, tells The Peg that firm labour data and a pickup in goods inflation could justify revising his 2026 dot higher. https://t.co/qevsjpOlwA
Amid waning external security guarantees, Pakistan has begun exploratory talks with Turkey and Saudi Arabia to create a flexible, informal security platform separate from its 2025 Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement with Riyadh. The trilateral dialogue focuses on defense‑industrial cooperation, with...
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
The U.S. dollar rallied after initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, well below expectations, reinforcing a labor‑market narrative of resilience. Hawkish Fed minutes further raised the prospect of delayed rate cuts, pushing the greenback higher against major currencies. EUR/USD slipped...
Only actions matter, not words. The actions: Germans who stand for separation of monetary and fiscal policies (Jens Weidmann, Axel Weber, Jürgen Starck) left the ECB due to its drift into fiscal support for high-debt countries. The ECB is losing...
More bears than bulls in the AAII poll, first time since the late November low. Also, initial jobless claims at the lowest level this year. Not the worst combo. https://t.co/eMyO6gjFm0
The post examines how the 10‑year US‑German bond yield spread correlates with the USD/EUR exchange rate, showing that higher US yields usually coincide with dollar appreciation. A notable exception occurred after April 2 2025, when a sharp US yield rise was followed...
This is what happens when you weaponize tariffs and international alliances: people will assume you would also weaponize energy exports.
