Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
A new S&P Global survey shows UK consumer confidence slipping to a 44.8 reading in February, the lowest level in two years. Households are adding debt at the fastest pace since July, with the sharpest increase among 18‑ to 24‑year‑olds, while savings across regions are falling. The survey also notes that big‑ticket purchase intent has dropped to a ten‑month low, reflecting growing pessimism about future finances. These trends come as youth unemployment rises to its highest since 2020 and wage growth slows.
Via the Financial Times: My thoughts on why US "jobless growth" may have entered uncharted territory. The decoupling of US growth from employment looks more persistent—and consequential—than the three previous episodes we've seen over the last 40 years: https://www.ft.com/content/298a38bb-4cc1-44f3-bd62-6aff25d58b94 #economy #jobs #employment #unemployment #growth...
India’s sugar and ethanol sectors remain outside the India‑US trade talks, with ISMA Director General Deepak Ballani confirming that ethanol is explicitly excluded and sugar export quotas have been modestly raised to 20 LT for 2025‑26. He warns that the limited quota‑based...
One of the under-reported stories in DM fiscal discourse is that for all the talk about how treasuries in the UK, US, France etc 'want' lower rates, they also want, and desperately, need high(er) inflation and the nominal tax revenue...
State Street’s SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) is gaining attention as its 1.85‑year duration aligns with a lower‑inflation environment, allowing a growth‑focused mandate. The ETF’s exposure to short‑term rate moves helps it sidestep risks tied to long‑term USD...
Hauliers at Mumbai’s Nhava Sheva (JNPA) terminal report truck queues of 25‑30 hours after a new slot‑allocation system was introduced at Gateway Terminals India (GTI). The bottleneck has left vehicles cleared by customs stuck for 3‑4 days, prompting the Nhava Sheva Container Operators’ Welfare...
The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has opened a public investigation that could overhaul how vessels call at Spanish ports and how Spanish‑flagged ships operate in foreign harbors. The probe follows Spain’s November 2024 decision to deny docking privileges to...
Zhonggu Logistics, China’s largest coastal container carrier, announced an order for six 6,000 TEU vessels, with options for two more, to support a strategic pivot toward intra‑Asia shipping as Chinese manufacturing relocates across the region. The mid‑size ships address port constraints...
EU Commissioner for the Mediterranean Dubravka Suica will travel to Washington to attend the Board of Peace meeting convened by President Donald Trump as an observer. The EU Commission clarified it will not become a board member but will participate...
Indian chief negotiator Darpan Jain will lead a delegation to Washington next week to finalize the legal framework of the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the United States. The interim agreement announced on Feb 7 reduces U.S. tariffs on Indian exports...
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $34.68 billion in January 2026, driven by a sharp rise in imports to $71.24 billion, especially petroleum, gold and electronics. Export value fell to $36.56 billion, with shipments to the United States slipping month‑on‑month despite overall annual...
Japan's economy posted a modest 0.2% annualized growth in Q4 2025, its first expansion in two quarters, as consumer spending rose slightly while exports fell under U.S. tariff pressure. TEPCO began trial electricity transmission from unit 6 at the Kashiwazaki‑Kariwa nuclear...
At the Munich Security Conference, both Republicans and Democrats openly condemned President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, unpredictable foreign‑policy moves, and his claim over Greenland. High‑profile figures such as Hillary Clinton, Governor Gavin Newsom, Senator Elissa Slotkin and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez...
The International Energy Week (IEW) in London highlighted the clash between geopolitics and a projected global oil surplus for 2026. SEB commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop warned that OPEC+ will likely trim production by roughly three million barrels per day to...
China’s independent refiners boosted Russian oil imports to a record roughly 2.08 million barrels per day in February, overtaking the 1.7 million bpd seen in January. The surge follows India’s sharp cutback to about 1.16 million bpd, leaving China as Moscow’s top seaborne...
Japan’s Q4 GDP expanded only 0.1% YoY, well below the 0.4% consensus, nudging the economy away from a technical recession but dampening reflation hopes. The weak data erased much of the yen’s recent 3% rally sparked by the new government’s...
The Caribbean is repositioning as a regional supply‑chain hub as nearshoring gains traction and governments fund logistics upgrades. High logistics costs—16 to 25 percent of GDP—have spurred port expansions in the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Guyana and Belize, backed by investors such as DP World...
Afreximbank terminated its credit rating relationship with Fitch after the agency reclassified the bank as high‑risk for providing debt relief to Ghana. Fitch argued the support indicated a lack of preferred‑creditor status, a claim the bank disputes, citing treaty‑based protections...
Governments are seeking ways to build startup ecosystems that can grow even during geopolitical shocks, supply‑chain disruptions, and economic volatility. The article argues that resilience—not branding or isolated reforms—is the key, using Silicon Valley’s ability to compress, recalibrate, and accelerate...
Japan’s economy grew a modest 0.2 percent annualised in the October‑December quarter, just enough to avoid a technical recession after a 0.7 percent contraction in the prior quarter. Private consumption rose 0.4 percent, but a 1.1 percent drop in exports dragged overall growth. The...
India’s wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated to 1.81% year‑on‑year in January, up sharply from 0.53% in December. The rise was led by higher food prices, while falling fuel costs provided a modest offset. Although the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)...
In this episode, host Jonathan Fulton talks with Dr. Eva Seiwert about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s expanding role in the Middle East, noting Iran’s recent full membership and the region’s growing list of dialogue partners. Seiwert explains the SCO’s dual nature—as...
Grains Australia’s new report quantifies non‑tariff measures (NTMs) as a 20.4% tariff‑equivalent on Australian grain exports, costing the sector about $4.6 billion in forgone revenue each year. The analysis, built on ABARES research and ANU‑led econometric modelling, is the most detailed...
Treasury Wine Estates’ push back into China has been derailed by a government crackdown on extravagant banquets and tighter grey‑market controls. The winemaker announced it will pull 400,000 cases from China and 500,000 from the United States to regain pricing...
Singapore’s retail sector has quietly outperformed expectations, delivering a 12.3% inflation‑adjusted sales increase over the past decade while the population grew 10.4%. Excluding automotive sales, non‑auto retail rose 11.8% since 2019, translating to a healthy 0.7% annual per‑capita gain. Mall...
Australia’s wheat exports jumped to 2,288,487 tonnes in December 2025, more than double November’s volume and slightly above the 2.13 Mt shipped a year earlier. The surge reflects the arrival of new‑crop wheat from southern ports, marking the start of the...
Myanmar's military junta expelled Timor‑Leste's top diplomat after Dili opened war‑crimes proceedings. The case, filed by the Chin Human Rights Organization, accuses senior general Min Aung Hlaing of rape, murder and attacks in Chin State. The junta called the move a breach...
In this episode, host Michelle Martin breaks down Singapore's Budget 2026, highlighting Prime Minister Lawrence Wong's AI‑centric growth plan and its implications for local equities and AI‑infrastructure stocks. She then shifts focus to China, evaluating the prospects of EV leaders...
🚨Global equities 'SELL SIGNAL' was triggered for the 7th month STRAIGHT: Institutional investors' cash as a share of assets fell to 3.2% in January, the lowest EVER. Cash allocations at or below 4% indicate a SELL SIGNAL for world stocks.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-ended-the-week-mixed-after-a-powerful-rebound-on-friday-weekly-market-recap-trading-week-0
US and China's mainland markets are closed today. The FX market is calmer and most G10 currencies are little changed. $JPY is the notable exception as disappointing data weighs on it. See https://t.co/cyTShaySWO https://t.co/ZB9uMP7xUC
Klook’s Travel Pulse 2026 report reveals that 88% of global travelers intend to keep or increase their travel budgets despite economic headwinds, with Asia‑Pacific travelers 50% more likely to boost spending than their Western counterparts. The survey of 11,000 Klook...
“Brent drops to $60 if Iran tension fades,” says SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop. Sure — until the next mini-shock. That’s the point: this isn’t anomaly anymore It’s the baseline. Oil trades on recurring tail risk at the margin. https://t.co/qqfYS0QUG9 #oil #Brent #OPEC #Iran #geopolitics...
COLUMN: In the oil market, the bears control the narrative — at least for now. (My summary after last week's International Energy Week, the oil trading industry's annual jamboree in London) @Opinion https://t.co/Y3OHEhD4k5
Citi warns that quantum computers could break public‑key encryption within the next decade, estimating a 19‑34% probability of a widespread breach by 2034 and 60‑82% by 2044. A successful quantum attack on a major U.S. bank could generate $2‑3.3 trillion in...
In January, we outlined a late-cycle restrictive regime and leaned cautious on risk. Since then, BTC has declined materially and leadership has narrowed. The February Macro Risk Memo expands the framework beyond crypto into broader macro. Now live: https://t.co/QKQMRbbeKi https://t.co/b0h9q5CS5C
🚨 KEY MACRO EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK: Monday – U.S. markets closed for Presidents Day Wednesday – December Durable Goods Orders release and FOMC Meeting Minutes. Friday – December PCE Inflation data is released and 15% of S&P 500 companies are reporting...
In Part II, the podcast examines how the ongoing "Great Compression" of money‑market rates is pushing the Federal Reserve to replace its traditional overnight Fed Funds target with a new benchmark. It explains that overnight Fed Funds volume has collapsed...
Mexico's Sheinbaum is stopping oil flow to Cuba to dodge Trump’s tariff threat It risks backlash inside Morena’s pro-Cuba wing--her own party. https://t.co/A4rwOfLqHy #Mexico #Sheinbaum #Cuba #Morena #geopolitics #oil #sanctions #trade #tariffs #latam
California has to import US gasoline via Bahamas Refinery closures + no Gulf-to-CA pipelines + the Jones Act = a logistics tax https://t.co/3dGBI24oXI #gasoline #California #energy #refining #JonesAct #shipping #supplychain #oil #inflation #markets
The Straits Times Index broke the 5,000‑point barrier on Feb 12 as Finance Minister Lawrence Wong presented Budget 2026, confirming JPMorgan’s bullish target from last year. The milestone follows a series of equity‑market reforms, including a S$1.5 billion top‑up to the Financial Sector...
Egypt’s tourism rebounded dramatically in 2025, welcoming 19 million international visitors—a 21% year‑over‑year increase—and generating $18‑$24 billion in revenue. The surge is driven by flagship investments such as the Grand Egyptian Museum, which opened in November 2025, and ambitious Red Sea coastal...
dailyanalysts 🚨 WEEK AHEAD ALERT: Feb 16-21 🚨 Three catalysts could define your portfolio's Q1. Markets closed Monday for Presidents' Day, but Tuesday through Friday is packed with market-moving data. S&P 500 is flat YTD. Nasdaq down 3%. Consumer confidence at DECADE LOWS. Here's...
The Treasury estimates average tax refunds will rise to about $4,000 this year, driven by the retroactive tax cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Higher refunds boost disposable income, reigniting consumer spending after a recent flattening. Meanwhile, Baby...
Hapag-Lloyd announced a $3.5 billion plan to acquire Israel’s Zim Integrated Shipping Services, pending regulator sign‑off. The transaction would add roughly 704,000 TEUs, pushing Hapag-Lloyd’s capacity above 3 million TEUs and placing it among the world’s five largest container lines. The deal...
US employment costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, just under forecasts of 0.8%, and the lowest level since Q2 2021.
Whatever the difference between the US and China may be and however you evaluate it, it isn’t in “financialization”, at least not as measured by the share of finance in GDP (h/t twitter account of devarbol for this graph). More...
What's on tap for the week ahead? An increased frequency of volatility meets a holiday liquidity gap, while a run of event risk weighs in on the steadily deflating US premium. https://t.co/17IH2lFIn0 https://t.co/AlKhX25xxn
ENERGY CRISIS IN CUBA: Granma, the mouthpiece of the Cuban regime, says that electricity generation in the island is covering less than half the expected demand. The island is suffering the largest energy shortages since the collapse of the Soviet...
Get my newsletter Tuesday morning: https://t.co/dSU3TT2kZX Busy week coming with GDP, Core PCE, FOMC Minutes $PANW $ADI $WMT $DE https://t.co/7mNeUbi7R9
My periodic reminder that the US TIC data doesn't measure China's holdings of US Treasuries. It only measures China's holdings of Treasuries in US custodians. The real question is how many Treasuries Chinese entities hold in non US...
