Today's Global Economy Pulse
Australia's April CPI eases to 4.2% as core inflation hits 2024 high
Australia’s consumer price index slipped to a 4.2% annual rise in April, missing the 4.4% consensus as a temporary fuel excise cut trimmed transport costs. At the same time, the trimmed‑mean core inflation gauge rose to 3.4% year‑over‑year, the highest level since late‑2024, keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation target.
Former Fed Chair Yellen Sees One Fed Cut Possible as Iran-Driven Inflation Clouds Outlook.
Janet Yellen, former Fed chair and current Treasury secretary, said a single Federal Reserve rate cut could still occur later in 2024 despite heightened inflation risks from the Iran‑driven energy shock. She noted that short‑term inflation expectations have edged higher as oil prices have surged more than 30%, creating a broad supply‑side pressure. While traders have largely priced out any cuts this year, Yellen emphasized that the Fed will stay data‑dependent and flexible. Her remarks highlight the delicate balance between curbing inflation and supporting growth amid political pressure on monetary policy.
Energy Shock Just Beginning, World Faces Unprecedented Recovery Crisis
The energy pain hasn’t hit yet—it’s just starting says @OpenSquareCap He's right but it's worse than that Even if Hormuz reopens, the world may never fully recover from this shock To find an event on this scale, you have to go back...
IMF Says Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Prospect of ‘Major Energy Crisis’ – Video
The IMF warned that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would spark a major energy crisis, pushing oil prices sharply higher. Chief economist Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas outlined an adverse scenario with rising inflation and tighter financial conditions, and a severe...
AI Hardware Fuels Asian Market Outperformance Despite Iran War
Which is a bigger impact on financial markets and companies' earnings: AI or Iran War? Well, the Kospi and Taiwan are still best in Asia and also world in equity performance. Why? They are the hardware of AI, as in chip...
Heads up for NZD and CHF Traders, RBNZ Gov Breman and SNB Chair Schlegel to Speak
On 15 April 2026, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Breman and Swiss National Bank Chair Thomas Schlegel will address an audience of traders and analysts. Their joint discussion will focus on how open economies cope with trade fragmentation, volatile capital flows, and...
Closing Hormuz Harms All, Not Just China
Reductive nonsense @DrJStrategy I could be more strident "Closing Hormuz hurts China” is fantasy It hurts EVERYONE—starting with the system the U.S. sits at the center of You call yourself a strategist. Run your dumb idea thru a chat bot to see what an...
Middle East Airspace Restrictions Prompt Global Cargo Reroute and Multimodal Shift
Air carriers are bypassing the Middle East with longer northern and southern routes, inflating flight times, fuel burn and crew costs. The disruption is tightening freight rates and spurring shippers to blend air, rail and road, while dry‑port hubs gain...
Emerging-Market Profit Forecasts Surge 23% on AI Gains Amid Iran War
Analysts have raised earnings estimates for companies in the MSCI emerging equity index by 23%, the quickest jump since 2009, as AI-driven productivity offsets the market turbulence caused by the Iran war. The upward revision continued over the past six...
IMF Trims China's 2024 Growth Outlook to 4.4% as Iran War Drags Global Economy
The International Monetary Fund reduced its projection for China's 2024 GDP expansion to 4.4%, a 0.1‑percentage‑point cut from its January outlook. The downgrade reflects spill‑over effects from the Iran war, higher commodity prices and a sluggish housing market, even as...
Asian Bond Markets Rally on Record Japan and Hong Kong Demand
On April 14, 2026, Asian bond markets surged as Japan’s 20‑year government bond auction attracted its strongest demand since 2019 and the World Bank priced a record HK$8 billion (about $1 billion) five‑year benchmark bond in Hong Kong. The twin spikes in...
For FDI, E-Comm Exports Must Be in Separate Cart
The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs has rolled out reforms to streamline e‑commerce exports, including lifting the Rs 10 lakh (≈ $12,000) value cap per courier shipment. The government is evaluating allowing foreign direct investment in inventory‑based e‑commerce solely for overseas...
Much Chatter that Iran Talks to Resume as Ceasefire Extension Discussed
U.S. enforcement of its blockade on Iranian ports showed full compliance in the first 24 hours, with no vessels breaching the restrictions. At the same time, more than 20 oil tankers have recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a...
Export‑heavy KOSPI Climbs as Domestic Economy Stalls
South Korean Kospi is up 22% in April and that's not because the economy is not affected by the Iran War but more due to the composition of the stock market. The adage of the economy is not the stock market...
US Set to Start Refunding $127 Billion in Tariffs
The U.S. Treasury will begin processing refunds on April 20 for $127 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year. The Court of International Trade ordered the government to file a progress report by April 28. A new...
Gojeerah Takaichi Cometh to Destroy Gas Tax
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to visit Australia amid a surge in Asia‑wide energy diplomacy. Japan relies on Australian LNG for 40% of its power generation and holds roughly $39 bn USD in equity across 13 LNG projects, while...
Markets Shift From Fear to Fundamentals, Target Energy, Banks
Market is repricing from extreme fear back to fundamentals. What’s happening? •Unwinding of geopolitical risk built during initial escalation of war. •Talks continuing, probability of extreme outcomes declining—for now. •Stocks rebounding, USD softening, oil down from elevated levels, gold resilient. Opportunities...
US Treasury: China Blocked From Iranian Oil
And in response:: US treasury secretary says China will not be able to get oil from Iran ⏳🇨🇳🛢️ $USDCNH
Trump and Vance Goosed the Market - Iran Talks, War Over. Vibe Trading.
U.S. political leaders signaled a de‑escalation in Tehran, with Senator Vance touting a "grand bargain" as the ceasefire holds and former President Trump declaring the conflict "over" in a morning interview. The remarks lifted risk‑off sentiment across Asian exchanges, prompting...
Sinopec to Source Russian Oil Directly After US Waiver
Translation: With President Trump Waver, SINOPEC can but the Russian oil "DIRECTLY" without STS or intermediaries. Sinopec buys Russian oil to replace Mideast supply after US waiver, sources say
Iran Reverts to State-Controlled Oil Export Model
⚾️I have no idea about the implications... but one thing is clear, they know things that we don't. ⚾️Please share your thought if you are familiar with these issues. 🛟Iran ends intermediary oil sales, returns to state-controlled export model...
Treasury Secretary Bessent Says Core Inflation Falling, Calls for Fed Rate Cuts
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that core inflation is continuing to decline and reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. He emphasized that the administration wants Kevin Warsh installed as Fed chair as soon...
Venezuela, North Korea, Iran Lead Global Inflation Surge
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 532.3%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 162.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 81.6%/yr 🇸🇩Sudan— 46.1%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 44.3%/yr https://t.co/EzuvCA0XwM
China's Subsidized Industries Fuel Overcapacity Without Market Discipline
China does not have a normal free market and a lot of their industry is subsidized by the government and banks - which lends itself to overcapacity since normal market inputs are not there to drive decisions.
U.S. Dollar Index Breaks Key Support, Raising Equity Risk for Traders
The benchmark U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped beneath a key technical support level on Tuesday, signaling a lower‑bias outlook for the greenback. Analysts link the move to easing geopolitical tension and improving risk sentiment, factors that could lift U.S. equities...
Ruffer Investment Company Reports Sharp Volatility After US‑Israeli Attack on Iran
Ruffer Investment Company said its March 2026 performance was dominated by the US‑Israeli strike on Iran, which sent crude oil up more than 60% in the month and 94% for the quarter while equities, bonds and even gold fell sharply....
IMF Cuts Global Growth to 3.1% as Iran War Threatens Emerging Markets
The International Monetary Fund reduced its 2026 global growth outlook to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing the Iran‑Middle East war as the primary shock. The downgrade flags a steep slowdown for emerging markets, especially Sub‑Saharan Africa, as energy and food price...
US Dollar Hits Six‑Week Low as Iran De‑Escalation Boosts Euro and Yen
The US dollar slipped to a six‑week trough amid fresh optimism that Washington and Tehran will resume peace talks, sending the euro up to 1.1800 and the yen down to the 159 per dollar area. A softer US producer‑price index...
US CPI Jumps to 3.3% YoY as Gasoline Prices Surge, Core Inflation Stalls at 2.6%
U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the highest level since May 2024, as gasoline surged 21.2% month‑over‑month. Core inflation remained muted at 2.6% YoY, creating a split that pressures policymakers in the United States and Canada.
Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges Fed to Pause Rate Cuts, Boosting Bond Outlook
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Semafor the Federal Reserve should wait before cutting interest rates. His comment, made amid strong early‑year economic data, is expected to temper expectations of imminent rate reductions and influence Treasury and corporate bond pricing.
Which Countries Are Most Vulnerable as US Imposes Its Own Blockade in Persian Gulf?
The United States has begun a unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about energy‑supply disruptions. Nomura’s analysis flags Asian importers such as Thailand, India, Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as European economies like Germany, Italy and...
Iran’s Trade with Tajikistan Experiences Q1 Spike
Bilateral trade between Iran and Tajikistan jumped 50% in Q1 2026, reaching about $120 million, despite the outbreak of the US‑Israeli‑Iran war. Tajik exports accounted for roughly $24 million of that total, while a massive convoy of 110 trucks delivered over 3,600 tons...
Australian Jobs Data Preview: Labour Data to Miss Iran Impact, Slowdown Seen Later
Westpac’s preview of Australia’s March labour force report suggests the data will show little immediate impact from the Iran war, with employment projected to rise by about 25,000 and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.2%. The bank warns that the...
Markets Find Relief, Not Optimism, in Reduced Conflict Risk
In English: markets aren't cheering conflict. They're reacting to a reduced chance of a much bigger mess. That's not optimism. That's relief. https://t.co/xyuf645L9H
Asian Marco Initial Thoughts: Data Light in Asia, S Korea Released Strong Export/Import Prices and Good Employment Data Premarket. Focus...
Asian markets rallied on optimism that renewed US‑Iran peace talks could ease oil‑price shocks, but analysts warn the damage from the Strait of Hormuz disruption is already baked into growth forecasts. South Korea posted a surprise surge in export prices...
2026-04-15: US-Iran Blockade and Fragile Talks Raise Trade, Energy, and Market Risks for India
The United States launched a naval blockade and mine‑clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz on April 15, targeting Iran‑linked seaborne trade while preserving a narrow corridor for non‑Iranian vessels. On the first day, six merchant ships were forced to...
Unemployment Climbs
Australian labour market data released by Roy Morgan shows total unemployment and under‑employment combined at 3.4 million in March 2026. Real unemployment fell by 28,000 to 1.693 million, representing 10.5 % of the workforce, a 0.1 percentage‑point decline. Under‑employment also slipped, dropping 205,000 to...
The Market Rings The Bell Before The War Ends
Equities have surged as the market bets on a near‑term peace between the U.S. and Iran, even though the conflict remains unresolved. The drop in oil prices has reignited expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, weakening the dollar and fueling...
Australia’s Diesel Problem Is Bigger than You Think
Australia is the world’s most diesel‑dependent economy, using 7.7 barrels per person in 2024 – about 80% more than the United States and eight times China’s level. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) reports diesel makes up roughly 9% of...
Russians Looking to Increase Exports to Thai Market
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev announced a drive to boost Russian agricultural exports to Thailand after meeting Thai Agriculture Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit. Bilateral trade in food and farm products grew over 15% last year, and Thailand is negotiating up...
Wall Street Rallies on Peace Hopes, Earnings, Inflation Data
JUST IN: Major Wall Street indexes climbed, pushing the S&P 500 near its record high, as investors eyed a potential Middle East peace deal and reviewed recent bank earnings and US inflation data.
Gulf Medium‑Sour Crude Fuels West Coast Pipeline Gap
The oil that the USA imports from the Gulf is overwhelmingly medium sour, much of which ships to the West Coast which lacks pipeline access to domestic or Canadian oil. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the comment...
Argentina Inflation Eases to 32.6pc in March
Argentina’s inflation eased to 32.6% year‑over‑year in March, down from 33.1% in February, yet it remains far above the government’s 10.1% target. The slowdown follows a historic peak of 292% in April 2024 after a sharp peso devaluation and aggressive...
Op-Ed: Mideast Conflict Provides a Test of Economic Resilience
The escalation of the Middle‑East conflict has sharply disrupted oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude above $100 a barrel and threatening to reach $200 if hostilities persist. The OECD still projects 2026 global growth...
Stocks Surge Toward Records on US-Iran Hopes, Corporate Earnings
U.S. equities surged on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining about 1.2% and the Nasdaq rising nearly 2%, putting both indexes within striking distance of record highs. The rally was fueled by renewed diplomatic talks that eased U.S.-Iran tensions and by...
IMF Cuts Growth Outlook and Warns World Drifting Toward 'Adverse Scenario'
The IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% amid Middle East war‑driven oil price spikes, while warning the world is drifting toward an adverse scenario that could cut growth to 2.5%. The reference scenario assumes oil averaging $82...
PETER’S ASIAN BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Wednesday 15 April 2026, 06:00 Hong Kong
The Iran‑US confrontation escalated this week as Washington imposed a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil premiums to historic levels and prompting a brief dip in Brent and WTI prices. China’s trade data showed export growth slowing...
Financial Repression Deep Dive with Hanno Lustig Drops Tomorrow
Recorded a Financial Repression Deep Dive with @HannoLustig, it's an absolute monster Airing tomorrow 🔥
Redefining Deficits Turns Section 122 Into Ongoing Tariff Power
Important: "If 'balance-of-payments deficits' can be redefined to mean some politically salient trade imbalance, then Section 122 stops being a narrow emergency provision designed for a fixed-exchange-rate system and becomes a standing reservoir of discretionary tariff authority" https://t.co/yGvNS8REjI
US Will Not Renew Iran Crude Sanctions Waiver
The U.S. Treasury announced it will let the temporary waiver permitting purchases of seaborne Iranian crude lapse on April 19, ending the short‑term relief granted on March 20. The waiver was originally meant to cushion Gulf oil supplies amid the U.S.–Iran conflict....
Foreign Overcapacity Not Driving US Trade Surpluses, Study Shows
.@USTradeRep's Section 301 case says "systemic overcapacity" abroad causes trade surpluses that harm US manufacturing. As @stanveuger @KyleLHandley show in new comments, there's no relationship bt low capacity utilization & big trade surpluses - if anything it's the opposite: