Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Japan’s ultra‑loose policy fuels $435 billion yen carry‑trade, raising global risk
The Bank of Japan’s ultra‑loose stance has turned the yen into the world’s cheapest funding currency, enabling a massive carry‑trade that amassed roughly $435 billion between 2022 and 2024. A modest rate hike in March 2024 barely dented the trade, but markets remain wary that aggressive tightening could shrink spreads and force borrowers to repay yen‑denominated debt.
Ocean Alliance and Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced a major overhaul of their trans‑Atlantic service network, removing several vessels and consolidating U.S. port calls. The redesign follows a year of uneven trade, with U.S. exports to Europe rising sharply while European shipments to the U.S. have slowed. CMA CGM, a key Alliance partner, said the new schedule will take effect in April and will deliver stronger coverage and reinforced frequency by leveraging its U.S. and European terminals. The most visible change is the termination of the Unity Bridge service that linked major ports across the Atlantic.
U.S. corn prices remain buoyed by robust export demand that persisted into early 2025, according to Compeer Financial economist Megan Roberts. While prices are still below target levels, the export momentum offsets downward pressure. Roberts noted that a nationwide E15...
India’s 13th Milan naval exercise, Milan‑26, will run Feb 18‑25 in Visakhapatnam, coinciding with the International Fleet Review and the IONS summit, forming the “Vizag trifecta.” The biennial drill has grown from four regional navies in 1995 to 70 confirmed participants...
Arunima Sinha explains that a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the president's authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could sharply reduce tariffs on many consumer goods, lowering the effective tariff rate from about 15% to the...
U.S. Treasury yields fell after the January CPI came in cooler than expected, pulling municipal bond yields lower as well. Despite the softer inflation print, analysts say the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold and consider only a...
The U.S. Supreme Court announced three decision days—Feb. 20, 24, and 25—when it will issue opinions, though it has not disclosed which cases will be decided. Lawmakers in the House have voted against new tariffs and the Senate is expected...
FedEx will shut more than 475 stations, roughly 30% of its U.S. and Canada footprint, as part of its Network 2.0 consolidation. The initiative merges Ground and Express operations, shifting focus to large metros such as San Francisco. Already, over 200 sites...
President Trump released the White House Maritime Action Plan (MAP), the most ambitious U.S. shipbuilding strategy since the 1936 Merchant Marine Act. The 35‑page document proposes a fee on foreign‑built vessels, a dedicated Maritime Security Trust Fund, Maritime Prosperity Zones,...
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted a mixed CPI report, noting a modest 0.2% month‑over‑month rise in headline inflation and a steady 2.5% year‑over‑year rate. While core inflation matched expectations, services inflation remains elevated, keeping overall inflation around 3% and...
Cameroon’s Ministry of Transport announced a suspension of its international ship registry after uncovering multiple fraudulent registrations. The halt, effective immediately, follows pressure from the EU, IMO and U.S. authorities concerned about the flag’s role in the shadow fleet and...
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
President Donald Trump addressed troops at Fort Bragg, warning that fear may be necessary to compel Iran in stalled nuclear negotiations. He highlighted the recent deployment of a second U.S. aircraft carrier to the Middle East as a contingency if...
British Gas chief executive Chris O’Shea warned that UK electricity bills will exceed the 2022 peak by 2030 as the country scrambles to fund massive grid upgrades. He attributed the surge to years of under‑investment, with two‑thirds of future costs...
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
Ford Motor Co. reported a roughly $2 billion tariff hit in 2025, double the amount projected just months earlier, after a miscommunication about the effective date of auto‑part tariff offsets. A fire at Novelis’ Oswego aluminum plant added another $2 billion headwind,...
Elon Musk’s X platform has granted blue‑checkmark Premium subscriptions to more than two dozen Iranian government officials and state‑run media outlets that are subject to U.S. sanctions, according to a Tech Transparency Project report cited by Wired. The blue checkmark,...
India’s decade‑long reform agenda, highlighted by UPI, GST and digital payment schemes, is now bearing fruit, according to Food Processing Minister Chirag Paswan. New free‑trade agreements, especially the pending pact with the United States, are expected to unlock fresh export...
The episode reviews how the U.S. aluminum market is coping with volatility caused by the 50% import tariff introduced in June, examining its impact on industry sentiment and pricing. Experts discuss the shifting demand landscape, noting the slowdown from removed...
In this episode, J.P. Morgan Global Research analysts Arindam Sandilya, James Nelligan, and Patrick Locke examine the current foreign‑exchange (FX) outlook, focusing on how recent US equity stress and the relative underperformance of US stocks are influencing currency markets. They...
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al‑Shibani and Kurdish‑led Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Kobane on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. The talks came two weeks after a Jan. 30 cease‑fire that promises to...
Pauses aren’t pivots. Central banks are holding steady, but easing remains conditional. Inflation is cooler, labor is softer, yet not weak enough to confirm a recession. Markets are trading the transition, not the destination.
And net reserves are still negative -- Argentina survived 2025 thanks to a $14b loan from the IMF and a willingness on the part of the IMF and the US to ignored missed reserve targets. Indeed, Argentina got another $20b backstop...
Lithuania warned it may negotiate a stand‑alone critical minerals agreement with the United States if the European Union fails to deliver a bloc‑wide pact promptly. The move aims to secure rare‑earths, battery metals and other strategic inputs for its defense...
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...
Russia announced a second phase of Northern Sea Route development, planning to build ten additional nuclear icebreakers and 46 salvage vessels by 2035, supported by three new Arctic rescue‑fleet bases. The current fleet includes eight nuclear icebreakers, with the latest...
🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📉Crude prices rise on Hormuz advisory before falling back on the prospect of longer US-Iran talks, with headlines dotted with a flurry of US sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector. Summary below, link to full report in...
According to a new report by the Tax Foundation, Trump’s latest tariffs amount to a $1,300 hidden tax per household. US TARIFFS = A SALES TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/w3pnoqPIdP
India’s PFRDA is piloting pension plans that bundle health insurance, allowing up to 30% of the retirement corpus to be earmarked for medical expenses. ICICI, Axis and Tata‑backed funds are testing the “Swasthya” product, which could leverage pooled investors to...
BOE’s Pill says interest rates are ‘a little too low’ and should be held https://t.co/wMBsLKECUz via @irinaanghel12 https://t.co/axOKBgzYCV
China's reported current account surplus for q4 was $242b (close to $1 trillion annualized), and the 2025 surplus was $735b -- well over 3.5% of China's GDP. This has big implications for the IMF, for Secretary Bessent and and the world...
Ashraf Laidi notes recent Trump administration comments that imply a deliberately weaker US dollar ahead of today’s non‑farm payroll (NFP) release. He suggests the labor data could fall far short of the 68,000 consensus, echoing a pattern of "benign neglect"...
Germany weighs debt brake exemption to boost raw materials fund https://t.co/lsvcwd09Y5 via @mcnienaber @ocrook https://t.co/wmKMMM7Dgu
Here's @rabois saying he thinks the Trump administration may ultimately reverse course on letting China get access to Nvidia's best chips https://t.co/XImO09oRyf
Eight years after its 2018 launch, the Addis Ababa‑Djibouti Railway has become a fully Ethiopian‑Djiboutian‑run, electrified corridor linking land‑locked Ethiopia to the Port of Djibouti. Management shifted from China Railway Construction Corporation to the two governments in May 2024, and Djibouti’s top...
There's a general and logical correlation between money supply and capital markets. But what about money supply relative to GDP? Here's $SPX overlaid with the ratio of US M2 / real GDP: https://t.co/UA5X14bWEk
This is actually the best way to describe the difference between GL 49 and GL 50 (the two Venezuela-related General Licenses issued by OFAC today)
The U.S. rig count held steady at 551 this week, with oil rigs slipping by three to 409 while gas rigs rose by three to 133. Crude output climbed to 13.713 million barrels per day, edging close to an all‑time high....
Why is the mkt so centralized? Well, only megacorps survive the red tape & regulatory fees. “Regulation favors the incumbent” Most scaled companies extract value instead of innovate. They use short-vol strategies that extract from the middle class instead of grow...
Post Hedgeye's Nowcast nailing another decel in CPI Growth decelerates → yields fall → correlations re-assert That’s the whole #Quad3 playbook ✔️ Duration bullish ✔️ Utilities work ✔️ Gold works ❌ Financials don’t
Political scrutiny of the EU emissions trading system intensified in mid‑February, pushing the front‑year EU ETS contract down almost 6% on Feb 5 and a further 7% after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s comments. EU officials denied reports of extending free‑allowance allocations beyond...
The Danny Moses Show returns tonight @scrippsnews at 7PM sponsored by @Kalshi. Great to have @pboockvar join me & we talk about the global & U.S. economy, A.I. stocks/bonds, commodities, the consumer, #FED, Private Credit & make some @Kalshi predictions... https://t.co/vQGLUQMHUc...
If you are interested in over 100 years of economic history and data on these geographic trends for this industry, I have some here for you: https://t.co/kayw0VoAML
Labour MP Graeme Downie argues NATO’s consensus‑based decision‑making is too slow for modern crises. He proposes a “neighbourhood” model that empowers regional allies, especially those closest to a theatre, to act quickly. Downie cites the UK’s anti‑submarine capabilities in the...
As Cuba teeters on the brink of economic disaster, China promises continued support. It looks like a SHOWDOWN between the US & China might be in the cards. https://t.co/rb7Qf0CdN2
This is extremely impressive. Congrats to @prometheusmacro and the clients who are using its models If you are looking for Quant Macro That Actually Works, Aahan is your guy
How much economic growth will get from AI? This is massively speculative. However, in a new piece today @ngoldschlag and myself make the case we can learn something about this from an academic economics debate about whether "ideas are getting...
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
Remember, every utterance from BRICS & Global South regarding potential new system to bypass USD is to be treated as if already operational & making material difference. And every piece of evidence that USD system isnt going anywhere is to be...
