Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Know What's Happening in Global Economy
Global GDP outlook to be cut as West Asia conflict fuels inflation
SBI Research warns that the global growth forecast, now about 3.2%, is likely to be revised lower amid intensifying West Asia tensions. The war has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and lifted metal prices, which could raise G20 inflation by roughly 1.2%.
Following the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro, a memo authored by former U.S. officials outlines a roadmap for Washington to steer Venezuela toward a prosperous, U.S.-aligned future. It calls for immediate benchmarks on human‑rights reforms, dismantling of paramilitary groups, and restoration of the rule of law, while setting longer‑term goals for debt restructuring, monetary stability, and free elections. The plan emphasizes transparent economic policies, oil‑sector revitalization, and regional cooperation to curb Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and Cuban influence. By linking conditional assistance to concrete milestones, the United States aims to create a stable partner in the Western Hemisphere.
On January 1, 2026 the United States enforced foreign‑entity‑of‑concern (FEOC) restrictions and a 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese‑origin battery energy storage systems (BESS). The new rules have shifted procurement from a price‑only focus to a comprehensive risk‑management approach that evaluates supply‑chain...
AD Ports Group has signed a Heads of Terms with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ministry of Transport to explore developing a multipurpose terminal at Matadi Port, the country’s primary riverine gateway. The agreement outlines a framework for enhancing operational...
The episode examines the current geopolitical interregnum—a transitional period between the fading Pax Americana and an as‑yet undefined new world order. It highlights how U.S. actions in Venezuela and threats to Greenland have destabilized NATO, prompting speculation about a future...
American Samoa hosts Pago Pago, the United States' sole deep‑water port in the South Pacific, a legacy of a 125‑year‑old naval agreement. The island now faces heightened Chinese activity, including illegal fishing fleets labeled a "maritime militia" and growing narcotics...
The article examines why nations continue to trade even amid armed conflict, highlighting the paradox of wartime commerce. It uses the United States‑China relationship as a case study, noting Washington’s push to “de‑risk” supply chains and the 2025 Chinese embargo...
Asian equity markets slumped after President‑Trump‑appointed Fed nominee Kevin Warsh signaled hawkish policy, prompting a broad risk‑off that also lifted the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the renminbi hit a 52‑week high at 6.94 per dollar even as commodity futures and semiconductor...
In this episode, host Michelle Martin and guest Simon Ree, founder of Tao of Trading, dissect a volatile market landscape where gold and silver have sharply retreated after a steep rally, and Microsoft’s stock fell despite strong earnings, raising concerns...
In this brief update, the host explains how the Federal Reserve’s recent liquidity injections have compressed the SOFR‑FF basis, pushing overnight SOFR rates to just a few basis points below the interest on reserve balances (IORB). Major banks, led by...
Iran announced a live‑fire naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz for Sunday and Monday, targeting a lane within the traffic separation scheme that handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil shipments. The United States Central Command warned Tehran that unsafe...
The episode examines the paradox of hydrocarbon utilization in the Middle East, highlighting how oil is still burned for electricity at massive scales while natural gas remains underdeveloped and heavily flared. It contrasts the region’s wasteful practices with global trends...
The European Union’s foreign ministers have formally listed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, marking a sharp policy shift amid Tehran’s crackdown on protests and regional activities. The move, championed by EU foreign‑policy chief Kaja Kallas,...
Ukraine has launched a series of "kinetic sanctions" targeting Russia's shadow‑fleet oil tankers, using maritime drones and alleged limpet mines. Since November, at least eleven tankers – eight carrying crude – have been damaged, driving Black Sea insurance rates up...
Europe’s battery market is overwhelmingly dependent on China, with 85‑87% of imports sourced from Beijing. The article warns that a Chinese suspension of battery exports would destabilize Poland’s energy transition, logistics, industrial output, and military readiness, and could similarly cripple...
Sanctions and economic pressure have strained Russia’s economy, but the war persists. The article argues that historical cases show economic pain rarely forces a state to abandon a large‑scale conflict unless it triggers military defeat, elite fragmentation, or regime collapse....
Shadow fleets—aging, flag‑hopping tankers that spoof AIS—now move roughly 12% of global maritime trade and account for at least 48% of the world’s large oil tankers. The United States seized a seventh covert tanker in January 2026, while France and...
The Q1 2026 CFO Leadership Confidence Index shows U.S. finance chiefs reacting sharply to Washington’s policy volatility. Before President Trump’s tariff warning, 130 CFOs rated current business conditions at 5.5, a 9% decline from Q4, but after a NATO deal...
In this episode, hosts Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, and Marisa DiNatale review recent economic data before diving into the U.S. proposal to purchase Greenland and Europe’s reaction, highlighting President Trump’s confrontational stance and framing the TACO (Trade and Climate Opportunity)...
President Donald Trump is expected to nominate a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the coming weeks, amid heightened political pressure for lower borrowing costs. The shortlist includes Kevin Hassett, a Trump‑aligned economist; former governor Kevin Warsh, a...
The UK’s public sector net borrowing fell 38% in December 2025, a £7.1 billion reduction from the previous month. Over the full financial year to March 2025 the government borrowed £152.6 billion, with an additional £140.4 billion borrowed between April and November 2025....
The ILO’s 2026 Employment and Social Trends report shows that global labour markets appear stable, with unemployment projected at 4.9%, but this masks deep challenges to decent work, including rising extreme poverty, high informality (57.7% of workers) and stagnant productivity....
The episode “Assisted Thinking” dissects the stark contrast between China’s massive reliance on coal—accounting for 58% of its primary energy in 2024—and the Western media narrative that paints Beijing as a climate leader. By examining data from the Statistical Review...
The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook projects global GDP growth at 3.3% in 2026, up from 3.1%, but warns that trade tensions and a potential slowdown in AI‑driven investment pose downside risks. The report highlights the importance of...
In this brief episode, ANZ’s research analysts discuss the recent decline in silver prices, attributing the slide to easing geopolitical tensions with Iran. They note that reduced risk premiums are dampening demand for safe‑haven assets, while broader market dynamics and...
The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer shows a historic split after the 2024 election, with confidence soaring among under‑30s and under‑50s while falling sharply for those over 50. Younger optimism aligns with recent Bank of England rate cuts and a liberal‑left...
In this episode, the Inside Economics team first breaks down December's U.S. consumer price index, assessing the current inflation trajectory. They then turn to Logan Wright, partner and director of China market research at Rhodium Group, who explains the challenges...
The episode examines whether the AI trade is resurging, focusing on the surge in semiconductor stocks and banks benefiting from AI‑related demand. It analyzes TSMC’s record earnings and what they reveal about the durability of AI‑driven chip supply chains, while...
In this brief episode, ANZ Research analysts discuss the recent 4.9% drop in oil prices, attributing the decline primarily to easing geopolitical tensions with Iran. They explain how reduced risk of supply disruptions has softened market sentiment and led to...
In this brief episode of "5 in 5 with ANZ," host Bernard Hickey highlights how recent central bank interventions have bolstered the Japanese yen amid broader market volatility. He notes that while banking stress persists in the US and Europe,...
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In this mini‑episode, Chris and former IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka examine Japan’s precarious position in the global energy transition, weighing whether it should align with petro‑states, join the electrostate movement, or straddle both. Tanaka proposes a bold East Asian...
The U.S. dollar is in a consolidating phase, hovering around JPY158.6 after a brief push toward JPY159.5, as Japanese authorities intensify verbal warnings of possible market intervention. In North America, traders await U.S. PPI, retail sales data and comments from...
